2026-27 NBA Preview

The four biggest names to change teams this summer all went East. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia. Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami. Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto.

The betting market’s two favorites are both in the West.

FanDuel has Oklahoma City at +240 and San Antonio at +270. The next two teams, Philadelphia and New York, are both at +1000. Strip out the bookmaker’s margin and the Thunder and Spurs together hold nearly half of the title equity in the league. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index puts the Thunder alone at about 28%.

That is the season in one sentence. The East got the stars. The West kept the two best teams.

Three other facts frame everything below.

The champion is the Knicks. New York won its first title in 53 years, rolled through the playoffs on a 13-game winning streak and brought back 10 of its top 12 rotation players. No team has repeated since the 2017-18 Warriors. And the Karl-Anthony Towns extension talks are frozen until later in the season, by the team’s own announcement.

The second apron is building rosters. Boston traded a Finals MVP for Paul George and picks. Oklahoma City moved Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe to get out of the tax. The Knicks let Mitchell Robinson walk to Boston rather than cross the line. Adam Silver’s response, in Las Vegas, was that this was by design.

Tanking now gets punished. Under the new lottery rules, the three worst records get just a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick. The next seven get 8.1% each. The bottom of the standings is no longer a destination. It is a zone to escape.

So the season starts with a clear top and a crowded middle. The Thunder and Spurs met in a seven-game Western Conference Finals in May, and both return their cores. Behind them, ten Eastern teams think they belong in the playoffs. Two of them won’t make it out of the play-in.

The season tips tomorrow Oct. 20th, when the Knicks raise their banner against LeBron’s 76ers at Madison Square Garden. Spurs-Thunder closes the night. Here’s ours.

Title odds are FanDuel’s NBA Finals prices at the time of writing unless another source is named. Projections cite ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). The consensus check also includes The Ringer’s Sept. 21st power rankings and CBS Sports’ offense and defense projections.

Top 16 Power Rankings Entering 2026-27

Power ranking is a neutral-floor question. Title percentage is a different one: it folds in health, age, depth and the path through each conference. That is why the Pistons can sit sixth here with a smaller title share than their regular-season ceiling suggests.

#	Team	Title %	The case
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	26%	64-18 and the league’s best defense by BPI, at +5.7 net points per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has won two straight MVPs, and Jalen Williams is healthy after playing 38 total games last year.
2	San Antonio Spurs	23%	62-20 and a Finals trip, with no subtractions. Victor Wembanyama took a 25% max ($252 million) instead of $303 million to keep the core together. Tobias Harris and Billy Donovan were the additions.
3	New York Knicks	9%	The champions return nine of the top 10 in their playoff rotation. CBS projects the NBA’s No. 1 offense. Mitchell Robinson’s departure and the Towns contract are the only real questions.
4	Philadelphia 76ers	8%	Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe. BPI ranks them third in playoff strength when Embiid is healthy. Embiid has missed 150 games in three seasons.
5	Cleveland Cavaliers	5%	52-30 and a conference finals trip, then swept by the Knicks. Donovan Mitchell (four years, $273 million) and James Harden (three years, $97 million) are locked in, and Peyton Watson fills the fifth starter spot.
6	Detroit Pistons	4%	60-22 and the East’s No. 1 seed, then out in Game 7 of the second round. Jalen Duren signed for five years and $200 million on Oct. 1. Cade Cunningham still has no second creator.
7	Houston Rockets	4%	52-30, then a first-round loss to the Lakers with Kevin Durant available for one game. Fred VanVleet (ACL) and Steven Adams (ankle) are back, and Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic add depth.
8	Denver Nuggets	4%	Last season’s No. 1 offense at 121.2 points per 100 possessions. Nikola Jokic and the starting five are elite. The Nuggets are the only team above the second apron, and the bench is thin.
9	Boston Celtics	3%	56-26 under reigning Coach of the Year Joe Mazzulla. They won that many mostly without Tatum. This year it’s Tatum without Brown, close to a wash, plus Mitchell Robinson. Expect a lot of regular-season wins; multiple playoff rounds are the question.
10	Toronto Raptors	3%	46-36, then a seven-game first-round loss to Cleveland. Kawhi Leonard is back after a $700,000 fine, and Scottie Barnes averaged 24.1 points and 8.6 assists in that series.
11	Los Angeles Lakers	2%	53-29. Luka Doncic led the league at 33.5 points and now has his center in Walker Kessler. The Lakers are the first team in NBA history with none of its top five playoff-minute players back.
12	Minnesota Timberwolves	2%	49-33 and a first-round win over Denver. LaMelo Ball arrives next to Anthony Edwards (28.8 points). Julius Randle and Naz Reid left in the deal.
13	Indiana Pacers	1%	A 19-63 gap year. Tyrese Haliburton says he is 100% after 16 months away, and Ivica Zubac replaces Myles Turner at center.
14	Miami Heat	1%	43-39 and out in the play-in. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP who played a career-low 36 games last season.
15	Atlanta Hawks	<1%	29-15 after trading Trae Young, and the only team to win two games against the Knicks in the playoffs. Jalen Johnson made third-team All-NBA.
16	Orlando Magic	<1%	45-37, then blew a 3-1 first-round lead to Detroit. The five highest-paid players return under new coach Sean Sweeney. They logged 182 minutes together last season, and Franz Wagner played 34 games. Anthony Black’s extension deadline is Monday, and Orlando is paying the luxury tax for the first time since 2010.

These sum to roughly 96%. The rest belongs to the field.

Who’s Not Ready

Injuries have already reshaped the opening weeks. These are the ones on teams with real stakes this season, per ESPN’s reporting through Oct. 13.

#	Team	Player	Status	What’s at stake
4	76ers	Ariel Hukporti	Torn right Achilles, out for the season	The backup center. Philadelphia is $1.8 million under the first apron and can’t fill the roster spot until Dec. 4.
11	Lakers	Austin Reaves, Walker Kessler	Ankle and finger, day-to-day	Two-thirds of the new core missed the preseason opener. Minor for now.
12	Timberwolves	Donte DiVincenzo	Recovering from a torn Achilles	A rotation guard on a team that already lost Julius Randle and Naz Reid.
—	Warriors	Jimmy Butler III	Torn ACL in February	A January or February return is the optimistic case. Yahoo warns he and Moses Moody could miss the whole season. He turned 37 in September.
—	Warriors	Kristaps Porzingis	Undisclosed health issue, out indefinitely	The starting center on a $40 million deal.
—	Warriors	Moses Moody	Expected back midseason	Wing depth on the league’s oldest roster.
—	Trail Blazers	Shaedon Sharpe	Out for a good chunk of the season, per CBS	A starting-caliber wing in a crowded backcourt.
—	Suns	Mark Williams	Surgery for a torn labrum, out multiple months	The starting center, re-signed for three years and $38 million.
—	Clippers	Brandon Ingram	Partially torn Achilles found during heel surgery	The centerpiece of the Kawhi Leonard trade. Out to start the season.
—	Clippers	Max Strus	Partial plantar fascia tear	Re-evaluated four weeks after Oct. 5.
—	Hornets	Kon Knueppel	Left hamstring; out all preseason, opening night uncertain	Charlotte’s best shooter and the rookie 3-point record holder.
—	Jazz	Jusuf Nurkic	Toe, out to start the season	The starting center. Utah is thin up front without him.
—	Bulls	Nic Claxton	Hamstring	The new starting center. Jalen Smith has started in his place this preseason.
—	Kings	Maxime Raynaud	Patellar subluxation; misses the opener, expected back relatively soon	Sacramento’s young center.
—	Wizards	Alex Sarr	June foot surgery, limited in camp	The No. 2 pick in 2024 and the most important young piece after AJ Dybantsa.

Back and cleared: Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles), Jayson Tatum (Achilles), Damian Lillard (Achilles), Kyrie Irving (ACL), Fred VanVleet (ACL), Jalen Williams and Joel Embiid, who was a full participant on the first day of camp.

Consensus Check (Top Ten)

Team	BSL	ESPN	NBC	Ringer	Yahoo	FanDuel title odds	CBS offense rank	CBS defense rank
Thunder	1	1	3	3	1	+240	2	1
Spurs	2	2	2	1	2	+270	6	2
Knicks	3	3	1	2	3	+1000	1	8
76ers	4	4	4	10	4	+1000	7	16
Cavaliers	5	9	5	12	11	+2500	12	14
Pistons	6	7	6	7	13	+2700	16	4
Rockets	7	10	7	5	12	+2700	11	5
Nuggets	8	8	12	8	8	+2700	5	24
Celtics	9	6	10	4	9	+1400	4	7
Raptors	10	12	14	6	10	+2500	13	3

ESPN’s rankings were published Oct. 19th; the Ringer’s and Yahoo’s were both published Sept. 21st. The CBS offense and defense ranks are Sam Quinn’s projections for where each team finishes in efficiency.

Our biggest gaps from NBC’s power rankings: Denver four spots higher, Toronto four spots higher, and the Knicks two spots lower than NBC’s No. 1. The Ringer is the outlier on three teams. It has Boston fourth, Philadelphia 10th and Cleveland 12th. Cleveland is the only team in our top ten that CBS projects outside the top ten on both ends. Yahoo’s Kevin O’Connor matches our top four exactly, in the same order. His big swings are elsewhere: Minnesota fifth, the Lakers sixth and Miami seventh, with Houston 12th and Detroit 13th. NBA.com’s annual general manager survey, released Oct. 15th, picked the Spurs to win the title with 50% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Thunder at 43%, and picked the Knicks to win the East. That is our top three with the top two flipped. Their East order (Knicks, 76ers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Pistons, Raptors) is nearly ours. In the West they have Minnesota third, which we don’t. ESPN’s Oct. 19th power rankings match our top four exactly. Their big departures from us are Minnesota fifth, Cleveland ninth and Houston 10th.

The market mostly agrees at the top. FanDuel’s four shortest prices belong to our top four. The split comes at five. FanDuel prices Boston fifth at +1400, ahead of Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Denver. We have the Celtics ninth. That’s a playoff judgment; in the regular season we expect them near the top of the East. FanDuel also has Toronto tied with Cleveland at +2500, a better price than Detroit’s.

The second model. ESPN’s preseason BPI projections back us on the top two. It gives the Thunder about a 28% title chance and the Sixers about 8%, and it gives six Western teams at least an 85% chance to make the playoffs. Its summer team ratings had Boston fourth, which lines up with our view of Boston as a regular-season force. BPI also says Boston has a 75% chance to finish with at least as good a record as Philadelphia, but the Sixers would be 52% favorites in a series with a healthy Embiid. The Warriors are 20th in BPI today and would be 12th at full strength.

Five Teams We Like Better Than The Projections

1. Denver Nuggets. NBC has the Nuggets 12th and FanDuel has them tied for seventh at +2700. They had the best offense in the league last season, and they were No. 1 despite missing Nikola Jokic for a month. Denver has never finished worse than seventh in offense since Jokic became a full-time starter. Jamal Murray made his first All-Star and All-NBA teams. Aaron Gordon has shot 41% from three over two years. The risk is real: the Nuggets are the only team above the second apron, lost Peyton Watson because of it, and are leaning on DeMar DeRozan, Spencer Jones and Cam Whitmore off the bench. CBS projects the 24th-ranked defense, which Sam Quinn says may be the worst of the Jokic era. Zach Lowe went under 48.5 on exactly those grounds: a bench he dislikes, Gordon’s health, and the chance Murray’s best season is behind him. But the best player in the world on most nights is still in Denver. Denver is 125-51 in the regular season when Jokic, Murray and Gordon all play.

2. Atlanta Hawks. NBC has the Hawks 15th and BPI had them 17th this summer. After trading Trae Young in January they went 29-15, the seventh-best record in the league in that span. Then they took two games from the Knicks, the only team that did. Jalen Johnson averaged 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists. Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Devin Carter arrived in salary dumps, and Zach Kram gave the offseason an A-minus. CBS projects the ninth-best defense. Simmons and Lowe both went under, worried about finding minutes for Dort, Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker at once. ESPN’s answer: keep last season’s starting five, which posted a +20.3 net rating, and bring Dort off the bench. The risk is the half-court offense, which ranked 22nd against top-10 defenses.

3. Utah Jazz. FanDuel has the Jazz at +12500, tied for 19th. CBS projects them as the No. 10 offense. Utah tanked for three years and is now trying: Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George (23.6 points last season) and No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson, NBC’s Rookie of the Year pick. The Jazz also turned Walker Kessler into two unprotected firsts and two swaps. The risk is center, where Jusuf Nurkic will miss the start with a toe injury. CBS projects the 23rd-ranked defense and warns Utah may be the worst rebounding team in the league until he returns. Simmons took the under for the same reason, noting Jaren Jackson Jr. averages 5.6 rebounds for his career. Lowe and House went over on Will Hardy’s coaching.

4. Memphis Grizzlies. FanDuel has them at +70000 and NBC at 25th. CBS has them 17th on offense, ahead of Atlanta, Phoenix and Golden State. No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer looked like the most NBA-ready player in his class. Ty Jerome scored 19.7 points a game over 15 games last season, and Zach Edey is a dominant interior player when he plays. That is the risk: Edey played 11 games last season and has had two ankle surgeries. Memphis allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and 121.2 without him. The bandwagon is filling: the win total moved from 28.5 to 30.5, and all three Simmons hosts went over. Lowe’s worry is perimeter shot creation beyond Ty Jerome’s floaters.

5. Toronto Raptors. NBC has them 14th and BPI had them 14th this summer. Toronto replaced Brandon Ingram, who disappeared in the 2026 playoffs, with a two-time Finals MVP. Toronto was 10 points per 100 possessions worse with Ingram on the floor last season. Scottie Barnes is coming off a first-round series against Cleveland that only LeBron James, Nikola Jokic and Cade Cunningham have matched across the board in the last decade. Kram graded the offseason an A, CBS projects the third-best defense in the league, and the Ringer has Toronto sixth. ESPN’s Kram goes further and picks the Raptors to reach the Finals. The risk is the same one it has been for ten years: Leonard has reached 60 games three times in that span, and he hasn’t matched the 84 combined regular-season and playoff games he played in Toronto’s title season. Also worth knowing: last season’s Raptors were 2-22 against the top six teams in the West and the top three in the East.

Also considered: Charlotte (CBS’s No. 15 offense even without LaMelo Ball), Portland (Damian Lillard and Ja Morant join a 42-win team) and Dallas (Kyrie Irving’s return and Cooper Flagg’s second year).

Five Teams We Like Less Than The Projections

1. Minnesota Timberwolves. Yahoo ranks the Wolves fifth, and FanDuel has them tied for seventh at +2700. We have them 12th and took the under on 46.5. Minnesota traded its two most physical frontcourt rotation players, Julius Randle and Naz Reid, for LaMelo Ball. Ball has played 2,100 minutes in a season once in six years and has never played in a playoff game. CBS projects the defense sliding from eighth to 12th, a deliberate trade of defense for offense, and Donte DiVincenzo is still recovering from a torn Achilles. Joe House took the under for the same reasons. The case against us is real: Simmons and Lowe both went over, Lowe sees Jaden McDaniels leveling up, and Anthony Edwards has never had a point guard like this next to him. One more number: Edwards has played 6,008 more regular-season minutes than Ball, roughly 200 starter’s games. GMs are higher still: they picked Minnesota third in the West and named it the second-hardest team to predict.

2. Los Angeles Lakers. NBC has the Lakers eighth and CBS projects the No. 3 offense. The Lakers gave up two unprotected firsts and two pick swaps for Walker Kessler, who played five games last season. Kram notes they now have one of the weakest forward groups in the league and almost no draft assets left. Doncic will put up MVP numbers. The question is whether 53 wins without LeBron James is still 53 wins. CBS projects only the 15th-ranked defense and can’t find a way the Lakers get stops when Kessler sits. Yahoo is the counterpoint, ranking the Lakers sixth and calling this a possible first MVP season for Doncic. All three Simmons hosts went over 45.5, though Simmons thinks Rob Pelinka is in the exit row after the sale. Botkin adds that the Lakers were already bottom 10 in made threes before losing Smart, Kennard and Hachimura.

3. Phoenix Suns. BPI ranked the Suns eighth this summer. NBC has them 19th and FanDuel has them at +15000. Phoenix won 45 games by out-working people, then ran into the Thunder in the first round. Jalen Green played 32 games on a career-low true shooting percentage. Miles Bridges cost an unprotected 2033 first, and his efficiency dropped about nine points without LaMelo Ball last season. Starting center Mark Williams will miss extended time with a shoulder injury, and CBS projects the defense falling from ninth to 17th. Every projected starter shot below league average from three last season. Devin Booker is also trending the wrong way. Yahoo notes his shooting at the rim fell from 63% over seven seasons to 56% last season.

4. Miami Heat. BPI ranked the Heat 10th and FanDuel has them at +3000. Giannis Antetokounmpo played a career-low 36 games last season with recurring calf strains, and he cost four players and three first-round picks. Dean Oliver’s projection for this Heat team is 46 wins. It was also 46 for last year’s Bucks, who surrounded Giannis with marginal players and won 32. CBS is the counterpoint: it projects Miami’s defense sixth. The Ringer has the Heat 17th. Lowe and Simmons both locked the over, betting on one big Giannis season. The spacing worry is real, though: Adebayo, Giannis and Davion Mitchell are all players defenses will dare to shoot.

5. Indiana Pacers. NBC has the Pacers ninth. Tyrese Haliburton has the kind of game that should survive an Achilles tear, and Indiana was 45 healthy minutes from a title in 2025. But he is 16 months removed from the injury, his new center doesn’t shoot threes, and the bench has thinned since that Finals run. We expect a slow start and a strong finish, which is a 13th-place preseason ranking. The Ringer has the Pacers in the same spot and says no team has a wider range of outcomes. The other side is loud: Bill Simmons and Joe House both locked the over on 44.5 wins, and Simmons calls Indiana the sleeper in either conference. ESPN’s BPI sides with us, projecting 42 wins and 10th in the East. Even GM Chad Buchanan expects a ramp-up: Haliburton and Zubac have struggled with pick-and-roll timing, and Haliburton tweaked his right ankle in his first game back, though his Achilles was unaffected. Worth remembering, too: the Pacers are the last team to beat the Knicks in a playoff series, and GMs picked Indiana as the league’s most improved team with 43% of the vote.

Fades the market has already made, so we won’t take credit: Golden State (+8000, BPI 20th), the Clippers (+100000) and Milwaukee (+100000).

The Win Totals

FanDuel’s regular-season win totals, our pick on each, and the picks from the Bill Simmons Podcast’s annual over-under episodes with Zach Lowe and Joe House. One variable nobody knows how to price: under the new lottery rules, the worst teams want to climb into the 4-10 range, so fewer teams should give up in March.

Team	2025-26	FanDuel O/U	BPI proj.	BSL	Simmons	Lowe	House
Thunder	64-18	61.5	60.7	Over	Over	Over	Over
Spurs	62-20	60.5	59.1	Over	Over	Over	Over
Knicks	53-29	51.5	51.7	Under	Under	Under	Under
Celtics	56-26	51.5	51.3	Over	Over	Over	Over
76ers	45-37	49.5	47.5	Under	Under	Under	Over
Cavaliers	52-30	48.5	47.9	Over	Over	Over	Over
Rockets	52-30	48.5	46.7	Over	Over	Over	Over
Nuggets	54-28	48.5	48.7	Over	Over	Under	Over
Pistons	60-22	47.5	49.4	Over	Under	Over	Over
Raptors	46-36	46.5	45.5	Over	Over	Over	Under
Timberwolves	49-33	46.5	47.8	Under	Over	Over	Under
Lakers	53-29	45.5	45.4	Over	Over	Over	Over
Pacers	19-63	44.5	42.0	Under	Over	Over	Over
Heat	43-39	44.5	45.6	Under	Over	Over	Over
Hawks	46-36	43.5	42.2	Over	Under	Under	Over
Magic	45-37	43.5	42.9	Under	Over	Over	Over
Trail Blazers	42-40	41.5	41.4	Under	Under	Under	Under
Suns	45-37	38.5	40.4	Under	Under	Under	Over
Jazz	22-60	37.5	35.4	Over	Under	Over	Over
Hornets	44-38	37.5	39.9	Under	Over	Under	Under
Warriors	37-45	36.5	43.6	Under	Under	Under	Under
Wizards	17-65	34.5	32.4	Under	Under	Under	Over
Mavericks	26-56	33.5	33.8	Over	Over	Under	Over
Grizzlies	25-57	30.5	29.4	Over	Over	Over	Over
Bulls	31-51	29.5	28.3	Under	Under	Under	Under
Pelicans	26-56	28.5	28.1	Under	Under	Under	Under
Clippers	42-40	27.5	30.1	Under	Under	Under	Under
Bucks	32-50	25.5	26.3	Under	Under	Under	Under
Nets	20-62	24.5	25.0	Under	Under	Under	Under
Kings	22-60	20.5	21.7	Under	Over	Over	Under

BPI projections are from ESPN’s preseason power rankings, published Oct. 19th. BPI and the market rarely disagree by more than two wins. The big exception is Golden State: BPI projects 43.6 wins against a 36.5 line, a bet that Curry stays healthy and Butler returns on time. We still have the under.

The market is lower on the top of the East than the power rankings are. Detroit’s number fell 12.5 wins from its actual total, and none of the East’s top six is priced above 51.5. Our biggest splits from the podcast panel are on Indiana and Miami, where all three hosts went over and we went under. The panel’s only unanimous lock was Houston over 48.5. Simmons thinks the East runs through whoever wins a Knicks-Pacers series.

Conference Deep Dives

The Eastern Conference

Overview. The defending champion plays here, and so do LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard, all in new places. CBS counts ten teams that feel like playoff teams: the Knicks, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers, Pistons, Heat, Pacers, Hawks and Hornets. Orlando, which made the playoffs last season, isn’t even on that list. Two of the ten will lose in the play-in.

The East also had last year’s best regular season that didn’t mean much. Detroit won 60 games and the No. 1 seed, then lost in the second round. The Knicks won 53 and the title. Philadelphia won its play-in game, then knocked out the No. 2 seed Celtics.

The market. FanDuel’s East order is the Sixers and Knicks at +1000, then Boston (+1400), Toronto and Cleveland (+2500) and Detroit (+2700). Our conference odds below are our own. We have the Knicks ahead of Philadelphia because they have already done it and the Sixers haven’t played a game together.

1. New York Knicks — East title odds: 25%

• Strength: Continuity and closing. Nine of the top 10 in the playoff rotation return. Jalen Brunson, the 2026 Finals MVP, has led the last three postseasons in clutch scoring, and Karl-Anthony Towns as a passing hub produced one of the best postseason offenses in league history.
• Weakness: Backup center. Mitchell Robinson left for Boston and Andre Drummond replaced him. Zach Kram thinks that downgrade could cost a playoff game or two, and CBS suggests the final backup center may not be on the roster yet. Yahoo argues the other side: Drummond is a better passer, shooter and rebounder, and less injury-prone.
• The question: Towns is eligible for a four-year extension worth more than $270 million. The Knicks’ reported offer is closer to four years and $200 million, and the team won’t negotiate until later in the season. He said Oct. 5 it doesn’t look good. Does that hang over the locker room? Towns said this week he was very disappointed by the pause. Rival teams see two paths. Towns could pick up his $61 million player option for 2027-28 and the Knicks could stay under the $236 million second apron, likely at the cost of Josh Hart. Or he could walk to a team like Golden State, the Clippers or Atlanta, leaving New York about $40 million to reset around Brunson. ESPN still expects a deal eventually.
• Watch: Health. All five starters played at least 66 games last season and filled 98% of the playoff starts. That is hard to repeat.
• Circle: vs. Philadelphia, Oct. 20, on banner night. At Boston and vs. Orlando the same week.

2. Philadelphia 76ers — 22%

• Strength: Talent. Tyrese Maxey (28.3 points) made All-NBA, VJ Edgecombe started 75 games as a rookie, and Joel Embiid averaged 26.9 points when he played. Then they added a Finals MVP and LeBron James on a two-year, $8 million deal. CBS’s Brad Botkin notes James assisted on 15.2% of his passes last season, a higher rate than Jokic, and that Maxey, Brown and James ranked first, second and third in transition baskets. The catch: the five starters’ combined usage last season was 143.1%.
• Weakness: Fit and size. Brown and Embiid are both high-usage midrange scorers. The defense is a question too: by GeniusIQ, Philadelphia allowed the easiest shots of any team that was trying to win last season. The roster lacks shooting, and with Ariel Hukporti out for the year, the frontcourt behind Embiid is Dean Wade, Adem Bona, Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker.
• The question: Embiid has never been past the second round. The franchise hasn’t reached a conference final since 2001, and Nick Nurse is in the last year of his contract. How patient will anyone be? Simmons’ worry is that no one in the core is at the right point of his career to sacrifice. Lowe calls the fully healthy version the biggest threat to the Knicks. Expect a slow start. James took one shot in 18 minutes over the first three exhibitions, and his first seasons in Miami, Cleveland and Los Angeles opened 9-8, 5-7 and 4-6.
• Circle: at New York, Oct. 20. Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detroit follow in week one.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers — 13%

• Strength: The core four plus Peyton Watson, who shot 41% from three in a career year and is one of the best wing defenders in the league. Mitchell made All-NBA second team. Harden, Mitchell, Mobley and Allen played only 90 regular-season minutes together last season and still reached the conference finals.
• Weakness: Guard depth. Max Strus, Dean Wade, Dennis Schroder, Keon Ellis and Larry Nance Jr. are gone. Behind Mitchell and Harden are rookie Meleek Thomas, Tyrese Proctor and Craig Porter Jr. The starters alone make more than $179 million, so cheap help like Mario Hezonja, who averaged 17.5 points for Real Madrid, has to work. Cleveland’s bench ranked 25th in scoring last season.
• The question: Harden averaged 19 points on 29% three-point shooting in the playoffs. After four straight exits short of the Finals, is a 37-year-old point guard the answer? Lowe locked the over anyway. Simmons points out that if this group falls short, Evan Mobley is the only big trade chip left. CBS ranked Cleveland just 13th in July, arguing it would lose a rematch with a Leonard-led Toronto.
• Circle: at Philadelphia and vs. Brooklyn in the first week.

4. Detroit Pistons — 10%

• Strength: Defense and the paint. Detroit led the league in paint points and was third in offensive rebounding. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden shot a combined 5 of 28 against Ausar Thompson in the second round. Detroit was 34-16 against winning teams last season, third-best behind Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
• Weakness: A second creator. The front office asked about Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard this summer and landed neither. Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart are gone. Simmons floats Tyler Herro or Kyrie Irving as the eventual trade fix.
• The question: Jalen Duren signed hours before the qualifying-offer deadline, and Trajan Langdon said he hadn’t spoken with him all summer. Does the All-NBA center bounce back from a rough playoff run? He called himself a Piston for life when he signed.
• Watch: Ausar Thompson’s jumper. He went 3 of 3 from midrange in his first preseason game and 0 of 5 in his next. He and Duren made six threes combined last season.
• Circle: vs. Boston, at Miami, at Philadelphia.

5. Boston Celtics — 9%

• Strength: The system. Joe Mazzulla’s four regular-season offenses have ranked second, first, second and second. Mitchell Robinson adds the best offensive rebounder in the league, and Payton Pritchard signed a two-year, $44.2 million extension on Oct. 13. GMs voted Robinson the second-most underrated acquisition of the summer.
• Weakness: Creation without Brown, whose 36.2 usage rate was second in the NBA last season, and free throws. Boston ranked last in attempts even with Brown, who was fifth in the league. Still, Mazzulla’s Celtics have finished top five in both offense and defense in all four of his seasons.
• The question: Can Jayson Tatum get back to All-NBA first team after nearly 300 days out with a torn Achilles? Our view: Boston won 56 last season with Tatum playing 16 games. This year it plays without Brown instead, and in the regular season that’s close to a wash. Paul George is a 40-to-50-game contributor, Robinson is the best addition, and the real doubt is whether this roster wins more than one playoff round. Botkin framed it the same way in July: Tatum is effectively a new addition, Robinson upgrades on Nikola Vucevic, and George upgrades on Anfernee Simons.
• Circle: at Detroit, then the Knicks.

6. Toronto Raptors — 8%

• Strength: Wings and transition. Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles make one of the best defensive groups in the East, and Toronto scored more fast-break points than any team last season.
• Weakness: Three-point shooting, and the half-court against good teams. Toronto ranked 23rd in isolation scoring and 29th in pick-and-roll efficiency last season, which is exactly what Leonard fixes.
• The question: Leonard signed a two-year, $115 million extension. Can he give Toronto its first playoff series win since 2020?
• Circle: vs. Chicago, at Washington, at Minnesota.

On Indiana and Miami outside the top six. NBC has the Pacers ninth and the Heat 13th, and both could end up in the top four. Haliburton’s return makes Indiana the team most likely to improve as the season goes. Miami has the higher ceiling and the shakier floor: when Giannis plays, the Heat have the best defensive frontcourt in the East. He has finished a full regular season and postseason once since 2022.

The other 13% belongs to Indiana, Miami, Atlanta and Orlando.

The Western Conference

Overview. Two teams and a wide gap. Oklahoma City and San Antonio won 126 games between them last season and met in a Game 7. Both are younger than nearly everyone chasing them. ESPN’s BPI gives six Western teams at least an 85% chance to make the playoffs, which says the top half is set and the fight is for seeding.

The chase is less settled. The Lakers turned over almost the entire roster. Houston kept its group and is betting on health. Denver kept its starters and lost its depth. Minnesota traded two rotation bigs for LaMelo Ball. Behind them, Portland, Phoenix, Utah, Dallas and Golden State are all realistic play-in teams.

The market. FanDuel has the Thunder (+240) and Spurs (+270) far ahead of everyone. The next Western team is Denver, Minnesota and Houston, all at +2700. The Lakers are +4000.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — West title odds: 35%

• Strength: Defense and depth. The Thunder have ranked first in defense two straight years. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points, and the bench has Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain and Alex Caruso, the most versatile defender in the league.
• Weakness: Size beyond Isaiah Hartenstein. OKC only rebounds on offense when he plays, and he has missed 37% of games over the last two seasons. Rookie Aday Mara may be the fix: he went 10 of 10 in one exhibition. Three rotation players, Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, were traded to cut the tax bill.
• The question: The Spurs. Chet Holmgren was second for Defensive Player of the Year and nearly disappeared against Victor Wembanyama in the conference finals. Can he hold up in a rematch? Lowe notes OKC was without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell for that series, and the Spurs won eight of 12 meetings last season.
• Watch: Cason Wallace, Dort’s likely replacement as a starter, is extension-eligible through October.
• Circle: at San Antonio, Oct. 20. Then Denver and the Clippers.

2. San Antonio Spurs — 32%

• Strength: Wembanyama. He was the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year and the youngest player to make All-NBA first team and the Finals in the same season. The guards around him, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, are 28, 21 and 20. San Antonio led for more than 72% of the minutes in the Finals it lost.
• Weakness: The bench after Harper. He was the only reserve to average eight points in the playoffs. Tobias Harris, 34, is the fix. GMs voted him the offseason’s most underrated acquisition and picked Harper as the player most likely to break through. Shooting is the other question: Wembanyama made 34.2% of his threes in the playoffs, and Fox, Castle and Harper aren’t knockdown shooters.
• The question: Does Harper start? Fox, Castle and Harper shared the court for only 25 minutes last regular season, and Fox sat out the first three exhibitions, so the evidence is thin. ESPN argues for starting Harper and moving Devin Vassell to the bench. Three-guard lineups were -26.9 per 100 possessions in 18 games last season. Bill Simmons wonders whether Harper becomes a 1999 Kobe situation, too good to keep off the floor late in games. Zach Lowe’s answer to the Finals depth problem is Harris, a better version of the role Keldon Johnson couldn’t hold.
• Circle: vs. Oklahoma City, Oct. 20. Houston and a trip to Dallas follow.

3. Houston Rockets — 9%

• Strength: Offensive rebounding. Houston grabbed 36.4% of its misses last season, more than three points clear of second-place Portland. Steven Adams, back from ankle surgery, posted a +11.8 net rating.
• Weakness: Half-court offense and shooting. Amen Thompson made 21.6% of his threes, and the offense fell apart in the playoffs. Houston blew double-digit leads in 18 of its 32 regular-season losses.
• The question: Kevin Durant is 38. Can he and Alperen Sengun finally function as a partnership, with Fred VanVleet back to organize it? All three Simmons podcast hosts locked the over. Lowe still warns that if the offense keeps ending in late-clock Sengun drives, Ime Udoka will hear about it. Houston also holds Brooklyn swap rights and an unprotected Phoenix pick if it wants to deal.
• Circle: vs. Dallas, at San Antonio, at Atlanta.

4. Denver Nuggets — 9%

• Strength: Jokic and Murray, still the best two-man game in the league, with Gordon, Christian Braun and Cam Johnson around them.
• Weakness: The bench, and the cap. Denver’s defense forced the fewest turnovers in the league, and the second apron leaves no room to fix the depth.
• The question: Jokic didn’t extend this summer. He said at media day he’ll sign next year. Is that enough to settle it?
• Circle: at Oklahoma City, then New Orleans.

5. Los Angeles Lakers — 5%

• Strength: Doncic and Reaves. Doncic came to camp at 230 pounds, down from 244, and JJ Redick says he ran sprints all summer. Reaves averaged 23.3 points and signed for four years and $180 million.
• Weakness: Forwards and backup center. Kram calls the forward group one of the weakest in the league.
• The question: Walker Kessler played five games last season and cost two unprotected firsts and two swaps. Is he the center Doncic has been waiting for?
• Circle: vs. Golden State, vs. the Clippers, at Utah.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves — 5%

• Strength: Pull-up shooting. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball took more pull-up threes per game combined than 20 entire teams did last season.
• Weakness: Size. Julius Randle and Naz Reid went out in the Ball deal, and Rudy Gobert is in his mid-30s.
• The question: Ball has never played in a playoff game. Can he stay healthy and make the decisions a contender needs? Joe House doesn’t think so and took the under. Lowe sees Jaden McDaniels leveling up on offense this preseason.
• Circle: at Miami, at Orlando, vs. Toronto.

On Golden State outside the top six. Stephen Curry signed a two-year extension worth about $116 million, taking less than the max to give the Warriors room next summer. This year is harder. Jimmy Butler III won’t be back until midseason at the earliest, and Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely. Steve Kerr told ESPN plainly that the Warriors are not in the championship conversation. BPI agrees: 20th today, 12th at full strength. Lowe adds that Curry, 38, missed half of last season with runner’s knee.

The other 5% belongs to Golden State, Portland, Phoenix, Utah, Dallas and Memphis.

Nos. 17-30

The new lottery changes the bottom of the league. The three worst records get a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick, and the next seven get 8.1% each. BPI projects Sacramento as the worst team in the league, and that only earns the Kings the seventh-best odds at No. 1, about 7%. Dallas, projected ten wins better, is at about 8%.

#	Team	NBC	FanDuel	The story
17	Trail Blazers	21	+8000	42-40 and the first playoff trip since 2021. Damian Lillard is back from his Achilles at 36 and Ja Morant arrives, with Deni Avdija and Jrue Holiday already there. Owner Tom Dundon’s layoffs and arena fight are the noise. Lillard has looked sharp; ESPN thinks Morant should come off the bench.
18	Jazz	18	+12500	Done tanking. Markkanen, Jackson, George and No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson. Thin at center.
19	Mavericks	17	+40000	26-56. New president Masai Ujiri, new coach Dusty May, Kyrie Irving back from his ACL and Cooper Flagg in year two. Flagg averaged 25.2 points over his final 26 full games. Their 2027 pick goes to Charlotte unless it lands in the top two.
20	Warriors	24	+8000	37-45. See above.
21	Suns	19	+15000	45-37 last season on effort. Jalen Green’s health and Miles Bridges’ fit decide whether that holds.
22	Hornets	26	+10000	44-38, then traded LaMelo Ball. Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel lead, and no player is on the books for $25 million or more.
23	Grizzlies	25	+70000	25-57. Morant was traded for no picks. Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward and Zach Edey are the foundation.
24	Wizards	20	+12500	17-65. See our Wizards section below.
25	Bulls	22	+100000	31-51. No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson (+350 for Rookie of the Year at DraftKings), new coach Tiago Splitter, and Nic Claxton and Norman Powell for ballast.
26	Clippers	23	+100000	42-40. Kawhi is gone, the league docked the team five first-round picks and suspended Steve Ballmer for a year, and Brandon Ingram has a partially torn Achilles. No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler starts the rebuild. ESPN notes two federal investigations still hang over the franchise, and Zach Kram predicts a bottom-three finish because the Clippers owe their pick to Oklahoma City.
27	Pelicans	27	+75000	26-56, with 14 of 15 players back and Jamahl Mosley as the new coach. Kram graded the summer a D. They went 9-45 against winning teams last season, and Mosley is starting veterans with Fears and Queen off the bench.
28	Nets	28	+100000	20-62 and the worst offense last season. Julius Randle and No. 6 pick Mikel Brown Jr. arrive, and Houston holds swap rights on Brooklyn’s 2027 first.
29	Bucks	30	+100000	32-50, and Giannis is gone. Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis came back in the deal, and the league is investigating Gary Trent Jr.’s contract. Milwaukee doesn’t own its 2027 first, which goes to New Orleans or Atlanta, so losing brings no reward.
30	Kings	29	+100000	22-60. No. 7 pick Darius Acuff Jr. runs it. Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine are trade candidates, and Ben Simmons is on the roster.

The Wizards: Year One Of Trying

The projection. We have Washington at 33-49, 12th in the East and just outside the play-in. That is a 16-win jump from a 17-65 season. NBC ranks the Wizards 20th, ESPN’s summer BPI had them 22nd, CBS projects the 23rd-best offense, and FanDuel lists them at 125-to-1. Some league insiders told ESPN its Summer Forecast for Washington was too low. ESPN’s preseason BPI disagrees: 32.4 projected wins and a 1.8% chance at the playoffs. Washington also can’t pick in the top five next June under the new lottery rules, after two straight top-two picks. In the GM survey, the Wizards finished second for most improved team and second, far behind San Antonio, for most promising young core.

The Wizards lost 60 or more games in each of the last three seasons. The reward was the 2026 lottery and AJ Dybantsa with the No. 1 pick. Under the new rules, that path is closed. This is the year they have to start winning.

• Strength: Talent at every position for the first time in years. Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Dybantsa and Alex Sarr form the core, with Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson and Will Riley behind them and Khris Middleton and Deandre Ayton for depth.
• Also a strength: Passing. Young led the league with 11.6 assists in 2024-25 and had eight in the first quarter of a preseason game against Detroit. Through three exhibitions he had 23 assists and only 16 shots, a sharp turn for a player who has averaged 18.3 shots a game. His preseason usage rate was 21%; he has never finished a season below 28%. Davis, Dybantsa and Sarr all finish and pass out of the pick-and-roll.
• Weakness: Availability and defense. Young played 15 games last season. Davis has played 71 in the last two seasons combined. Sarr had foot surgery in June and was limited in camp. Young remains one of the weakest defenders in the league.
• The question: Davis and the team agreed to hold off on extension talks. If the start goes badly, does he ask out?
• The rookie: Dybantsa’s strength at BYU was a long, bendy frame that found gaps to the rim and drew fouls. He led the country at 25.5 points per game. CBS already ranks him 90th in the league. He won’t have to carry the team, which may help him most.
• The contract: Young signed for four years and $212 million before the draft. Kram gave the deal a D. The Wizards held the announcement at a Las Vegas hotel with most of the roster in the room.
• The X factor: Kyshawn George, a No. 24 pick, averaged 14.8 points and 4.5 assists and shot 38% from three. Kram thinks he may already be the best all-around wing on the roster.
• Circle: vs. Milwaukee, vs. Toronto and at Chicago in week one.

The home floor. Dean Oliver notes the Wizards are one of three teams with a home-court disadvantage over the last three years, partly because so many D.C. fans root for the team from where they grew up. A normal home edge is worth about five wins. Young’s personal home-court split is among the worst in the league. The mood may help. Capital One Arena’s renovation is about two-thirds done with both the Wizards and Capitals staying downtown, and about 5,000 fans showed up to a draft party for a No. 1 pick everyone already knew was coming. FanDuel’s win total is 34.5. Joe House, the Wizards’ loudest fan in media, took the over. Bill Simmons locked the under.

The bar. Washington has made the playoffs once in the last eight years and hasn’t won a series since 2017. It is also in a conference where ten teams think they are playoff teams. A play-in berth would be a success. Thirty wins and a top-ten pick would be an acceptable first step. Another season in the bottom three would mean the worst odds the new lottery allows, and no Dybantsa waiting at the end of it.

 

League Unit Rankings

Top 8 Duos

1. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Nuggets — Still the best two-man game in basketball. Murray’s first All-Star season came with the best efficiency of his career.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, Thunder — A two-time MVP and a 25-year-old who made All-NBA, All-Defense and the All-Star team in the 2025 title season. Williams played 38 games last year and says he is healthy.
3. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks — The best closer in the league and the best shooting big man ever. The playoff version, with Towns as a hub, won a title.
4. Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper, Spurs — ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reports the Spurs believe Harper is already their second-best player. Rival front offices agree.
5. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, Lakers — The analytics loved them together last season, and LeBron’s minutes now go to them.
6. Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes, Raptors — Two wings who can guard anyone and a new half-court shotmaker for a team that needed one.
7. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, Timberwolves — The most pull-up threes of any pairing in the league. Ball should take some of the creation load off Edwards.
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, Heat — Possibly the best defensive frontcourt in the league, if Giannis is on the floor.

Just missed: Donovan Mitchell and James Harden (Cavaliers), Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown (76ers), Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren (Pistons), Jayson Tatum and Derrick White (Celtics).

Top 8 Benches

1. Thunder — Ajay Mitchell grew into a real secondary creator, Jared McCain gets a full season, and Alex Caruso still swings big games. NBC says this second unit has been the scariest thing about OKC in the preseason.
2. Spurs — Harper, if he comes off it, plus Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Tobias Harris and Carter Bryant, a strong rookie defender. Depth was the problem in the Finals. This is the fix.
3. Hawks — Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Devin Carter arrived in salary dumps, and No. 8 pick Kingston Flemings backs up CJ McCollum. Kram calls the bench upgrade dramatic.
4. Celtics — Payton Pritchard won Sixth Man of the Year in 2025 and goes back to that role after a career year as a starter.
5. Rockets — Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason, plus Steven Adams when he plays.
6. Knicks — Jordan Clarkson, Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet all came back on below-market deals. Andre Drummond is the downgrade.
7. Pacers — Kelly Oubre Jr. and Larry Nance Jr. join T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin. Rick Carlisle knows which buttons to push.
8. Raptors — Kyle Anderson, Andre Jackson Jr. and Jamal Shead, who signed a three-year, $24 million extension. Collin Murray-Boyles may start.

Thinnest among contenders: Denver, with DeMar DeRozan, Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones, Cam Whitmore, Julian Strawther and EuroLeague import Alpha Diallo behind an elite starting five.

Top 10 Head Coaches

Rotation management plus scheme, which in a second-apron league is most of the job.

1. Mark Daigneault, Thunder. A title in 2025, the best defense in the league two years running, and the most aggressive minutes management in the sport. He turned three trades out of his rotation into a deeper bench.

2. Erik Spoelstra, Heat. Last season he ran the fastest pace in the league with almost no ball screens. Now he has to build a different offense around Giannis.

3. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics. The reigning Coach of the Year. His regular-season offenses have ranked first or second all four years, and Dean Oliver notes his teams haven’t lost more than three straight in three years.

4. Mike Brown, Knicks. Won a title in his first year by turning Towns into a passing hub in the playoffs.

5. Rick Carlisle, Pacers. Took Indiana to the 2025 Finals with a rotation built on depth. His rotation decisions in Haliburton’s first months back will shape the season.

6. Steve Kerr, Warriors. Signed a new contract and has said openly the Warriors aren’t title contenders. Now he is coaching development, which he says excites him.

7. Mitch Johnson, Spurs. Took a 62-win team to the Finals and added Billy Donovan as his lead assistant.

8. Ime Udoka, Rockets. Two straight 50-win seasons built on defense and offensive rebounding. The playoff offense is on him now.

9. Kenny Atkinson, Cavaliers. Two seasons, two top-four seeds and a conference finals. His Game 7 adjustment against Detroit, steering away from Ausar Thompson, was the move of that series.

10. Tyronn Lue, Clippers. CBS rates him among the best play designers in the league. He will need all of it this year.

Just missed: J.B. Bickerstaff (60 wins in Detroit), Will Hardy (Utah), JJ Redick (Lakers) and Nick Nurse, who coaches the most talented team of his Philadelphia tenure in the last year of his contract. New this season: Micah Nori (Portland), Sean Sweeney (Orlando), Jamahl Mosley (New Orleans), Taylor Jenkins (Milwaukee), Tiago Splitter (Chicago) and Dusty May (Dallas). In the GM survey, Spoelstra edged Daigneault for best coach, 43% to 37%, and Carlisle was picked for both best offense and best in-game adjustments.

The Individual Awards

Top 5 MVP Candidates

1. Victor Wembanyama, C, Spurs. CBS ranks him the best player in the league, and ESPN’s Summer Forecast gives him the best MVP chance. He is the reigning unanimous Defensive Player of the Year and the best player on a team built to win 60 again. The only gap is self-created offense in big moments, and the Finals loss is his motivation. NBA general managers agree: 77% picked him for MVP, ahead of Jokic (10%) and Edwards (7%), and 93% would start a franchise with him.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Thunder. The two-time defending MVP averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 1.4 steals. A third straight would make him the first since Larry Bird in 1984-86. Voter fatigue is the real opponent. ESPN has him fourth.

3. Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets. He hasn’t finished outside the top two since 2020 and led the league in assists and rebounds last season. If Denver’s depth holds, he is the default.

4. Luka Doncic, G, Lakers. He led the league with 33.5 points and is +650 at DraftKings. He’s lighter, rested after skipping national team play, and the offense is entirely his now. The hurdles are 65 games and a top-three seed.

5. Cade Cunningham, G, Pistons. Fifth in last year’s voting after averaging 23.9 points and 9.9 assists for the East’s No. 1 seed. J.B. Bickerstaff has promised a better version.

Longshots: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200 at DraftKings; he finished top four every year from 2019 through 2025), Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown, who finished sixth last year and will have fewer shots in Philadelphia.

Top 8 Rookies

1. Darryn Peterson, Jazz — The No. 2 pick and NBC’s Rookie of the Year pick. Utah wants him to focus on scoring while Keyonte George runs the offense.
2. AJ Dybantsa, Wizards — The No. 1 pick, already 90th in CBS’s top 100. He doesn’t have to be the first option, which may help his numbers more than hurt them.
3. Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies — No. 3, the reigning Naismith Player of the Year, and the most NBA-ready player in the class. He and Zach Edey could be the best rebounding frontcourt in the league.
4. Caleb Wilson, Bulls — No. 4 and +350 at DraftKings. He added a catch-and-shoot three in summer league and drew Kevin Garnett comparisons.
5. Darius Acuff Jr., Kings — No. 7 out of Arkansas, where he averaged 23.5 points and was unanimous SEC Player of the Year. He’ll have the ball on a team with nothing to lose.
6. Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors — No. 11 from national champion Michigan. Steve Kerr says he will play a ton.
7. Kingston Flemings, Hawks — No. 8, backing up CJ McCollum on a team that expects to make the playoffs.
8. Mikel Brown Jr., Nets — No. 6, averaged 16.7 points in summer league and will start next to Egor Demin.

Next: Keaton Wagler (Clippers, No. 5, a rough summer league), Morez Johnson Jr. (Mavericks, No. 9), Brayden Burries (Bucks, No. 10), Koa Peat (Suns), Aday Mara (Thunder) and Cameron Carr (Lakers). GMs see the award differently: Boozer got 50% of their Rookie of the Year vote, ahead of Wilson (20%), Dybantsa (17%) and Peterson (13%). For best player in five years, Dybantsa and Wilson tied at 33%, and Brayden Burries was voted the biggest draft-night steal.

Top 8 New Faces

The summer moved more stars than any in recent memory.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Heat (from Milwaukee) — Cost Miami Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and three first-round picks. He played 36 games last season. GMs called him the acquisition who will make the biggest impact, and voted Philadelphia’s summer the best overall.
2. LeBron James, 76ers (from the Lakers) — Signed for two years and $8 million after making nearly $53 million last season. He averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists at 41.
3. Jaylen Brown, 76ers (from Boston) — Averaged 28.7 points and finished sixth in MVP voting. The return was Paul George, two firsts and two seconds.
4. Kawhi Leonard, Raptors (from the Clippers) — Averaged 27.9 points in 65 games, the most points of his career. Toronto sent Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two unprotected firsts, a swap and two seconds.
5. LaMelo Ball, Timberwolves (from Charlotte) — The catalyst for the league’s best offense from December on. Minnesota sent out Julius Randle, Naz Reid and a first.
6. Paul George, Celtics (from Philadelphia) — The better spot-up shooter and team defender than Brown at this stage. He has said Tatum is the guy.
7. Peyton Watson, Cavaliers (from Denver) — Signed for four years and $88 million after averaging career highs and shooting 41% from three.
8. Walker Kessler, Lakers (from Utah) — The 7-foot-2 rim protector the Doncic offense was missing, at a price Utah called a win.

Next: Ja Morant (Portland), Julius Randle (Brooklyn), Damian Lillard (back in Portland), Deandre Ayton (Washington), John Collins (Detroit), Klay Thompson (Miami).

Quick Hits

• Most continuity among contenders: The Spurs, with no subtractions at all, and the Knicks, with 10 of their top 12 back. Least: The Lakers, the first team in NBA history with none of its top five playoff-minute players returning.
• Opening night, tomorrow Oct. 20th: The Knicks raise their first banner since 1973 against LeBron’s 76ers at Madison Square Garden, and the Spurs host the Thunder in a conference finals rematch. LeBron said at media day he once pictured finishing his career at the Garden.
• New coaches: Micah Nori (Portland, on a year-to-year deal), Sean Sweeney (Orlando), Jamahl Mosley (New Orleans), Taylor Jenkins (Milwaukee), Tiago Splitter (Chicago) and Dusty May (Dallas), who won the NCAA title at Michigan in April.
• Biggest deals: Donovan Mitchell (four years, $273 million), Victor Wembanyama (five years, $252 million), Trae Young (four years, $212 million), Amen Thompson (five years, $208 million), Jalen Duren (five years, $200 million). Best value: LeBron James, two years and $8 million.
• The penalty: The league docked the Clippers five first-round picks and suspended Steve Ballmer for a year over the Leonard endorsement deal. Leonard was fined $700,000.
• Hottest seats: Nick Nurse (Philadelphia, last year of his deal), Brad Stevens (Boston, for the Brown trade), Rob Pelinka (Lakers, for the Kessler price) and Kevin Pritchard (Indiana, who gave up what became the No. 5 pick for Ivica Zubac).
• Droughts on the line: Philadelphia hasn’t reached a conference final since 2001 or won a title since 1983. Toronto hasn’t won a series since 2020. Orlando hasn’t since 2010. Chicago hasn’t since 2015. Charlotte hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016. No team has repeated since the 2017-18 Warriors.
• Coming soon: The NBA is reviewing three finalist groups for a Las Vegas expansion team, at a reported price of $12 billion to $13 billion, with a decision possibly weeks away. Seattle is no longer a lock, per ESPN; Adam Silver has floated Mexico City while he pushes the Seattle bids higher. Each existing team expects a windfall of roughly $500 million to $600 million.
• Our conference finals: Knicks over 76ers in the East. Thunder over Spurs in the West. Our champion: Oklahoma City, over New York.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering The Season

1. The stars went East. LeBron, Giannis, Brown and Kawhi all changed conferences or came back to the East. The Western favorites didn’t need any of them. The first real test is how fast the new pairings fit. Philadelphia’s four high-usage stars have never played a game together, and Miami’s offense has to be rebuilt around a player who missed half of last season.

2. Can anyone repeat? Eight straight seasons without one. The Knicks have the continuity and the closer. They also have Towns’ contract on hold and a backup center downgrade. Golliver’s team source warned about a hangover and three-point regression after the Knicks led the 2026 postseason in shooting. The case for history is just as strong: New York’s +14.9 playoff point differential was the best ever for a champion, and six of the seven previous leaders in that stat repeated.

3. The second apron is the general manager now. Brown to Philadelphia. Dort, Wiggins and Joe out of Oklahoma City. Robinson to Boston. Watson out of Denver. Adam Silver said moves like the Brown trade were certainly not an unintended consequence. Expect more of them at the deadline.

4. Losing doesn’t pay. The new lottery gives the three worst teams the worst odds of any lottery team at the No. 1 pick. BPI’s projected worst team, Sacramento, has only the seventh-best odds at No. 1. The rules also bar any team from picking in the top five three drafts running, which already caps Washington, Chicago, Indiana, Memphis and Utah. And the Thunder could add a lottery pick anyway, via the Clippers. The odds at the top are flat enough that the race to the bottom is now a race to the middle of the bottom.

5. LeBron’s last act, probably. He is 41, on a two-year deal, in a new city, chasing a fifth title with a team that hasn’t won one in 43 years. He said he didn’t leave home to watch the Sixers keep being the Sixers. If it works, it is the best story of the season. If it doesn’t, it is the hardest ending of his career.

Two Conferences

We started with where the stars went, so we’ll end there.

The four biggest moves of the summer all landed in the East. The East is deeper for it. Ten teams think they are playoff teams, and several of them are right.

But the two favorites didn’t trade for anyone. San Antonio added Tobias Harris and a lead assistant. Oklahoma City traded three rotation players to save money. The Knicks, the best bet in the East, lost a backup center.

That is the pattern at the top. In a league where the second apron makes every roster a short lease, the teams that renewed are the favorites. Every contender that went shopping is still a theory, not a team. Philadelphia’s four stars have never shared a court. Miami’s best player played 36 games last season. Boston traded its second-best player for a 36-year-old.

The East got the names this summer. The West kept the teams. In June, we think, the teams win.