Week 10 had seven games between teams in the committee’s first top 25, and for the fifth straight week, CBS notes, a top-two team lost. Notre Dame beat Miami 31-24, Georgia won 42-7 in Oxford, Utah beat BYU, and Tennessee and Alabama each beat a ranked SEC team by 18 points or more. According to the AP, this is the first season since 2003 in which only two teams got through their first nine games unbeaten: Utah and UCLA, both now 9-0. Ohio State lost again and has three losses. The committee’s second ranking comes Tuesday night. Below is where we have everyone now, and what we expect from a seven-game Week 11 board.

Quick Hits

Notre Dame 31, Miami 24. CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, and Notre Dame led 24-3 early in the third quarter on its way to beating No. 1 Miami in South Bend. Miami was playing its first game without receiver Malachi Toney. Darian Mensah threw three touchdown passes to get the Hurricanes within a touchdown twice. With 3:36 left, Elija Lofton appeared to catch a fourth-down pass in the end zone that would have made it 31-30. Luke Talich knocked the ball away, and the officials ruled it incomplete. Mario Cristobal said he was “beyond upset” about the call. The win also settled last season’s 27-24 Miami win, the game that kept Notre Dame out of the playoff. CBS’s Winners and Losers now has Carr leading the Heisman conversation.

Georgia 42, Ole Miss 7. Last week we called Georgia’s passing game “the open question going into Oxford.” Gunner Stockton answered it efficiently, completing 9 of 15 passes for 186 yards and four touchdowns and running for another score. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and ran for 295 yards. Ole Miss finished with 252 yards of offense. The loss ended the Rebels’ 16-game home winning streak, and Kirby Smart won in Oxford for the first time in three tries.

Utah 28, BYU 20. Devon Dampier accounted for four touchdowns and 266 yards, and Utah intercepted Bear Bachmeier four times. Two of those came in the end zone in the fourth quarter. BYU led 20-14 at halftime, and Utah shut it out after the break. The win snapped a three-game losing streak in the rivalry. ESPN notes that Morgan Scalley is 10-0 as Utah’s coach, counting last year’s bowl, and is only the sixth FBS coach in 40 years to start a career with 10 straight wins. This also ends the promise we have carried since Week 9: BYU stayed ahead of Utah “until they play on November 7th.” They played, and Utah won.

Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6, and Alabama 31, LSU 13. Tennessee scored 24 straight points in the second half, forced three turnovers and held Kentucky to two field goals in two red-zone trips. Arion Carter had 13 tackles and two sacks. In Baton Rouge, Keelon Russell played through an ankle injury and threw three touchdown passes. LSU went 0 for 4 on fourth down and outgained Alabama 457-285, but scored one touchdown. Lane Kiffin is now 0-6 against Alabama. CBS’s Winners and Losers printed 31-14; the AP recap and ESPN both have 31-13, and we use 31-13. Kentucky lost, so last week’s three-team cycle scenario did not happen.

Texas 34, Missouri 20. Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. The go-ahead score was a pass to Raleek Brown with 5:03 left, and Graceson Littleton’s interception on Missouri’s next drive set up Brown’s clinching run. The AP calls it Texas’s fourth win this season over a top-20 opponent. There were five video reviews, and all five went against Missouri. One ruled a Manning throw that went 14 yards forward a fumble, recovered by Texas for a first down. Texas tied the game three plays later.

Oregon 41, Ohio State 28. Ohio State led 14-0 late in the first quarter. Then Oregon scored 38 straight points, with Dylan Raiola passing for 257 yards and Dierre Hill Jr. running for two touchdowns. Luke Fahey completed 36 of 50 passes for 360 yards in his second start for the injured Julian Sayin. The AP says this is the first time Ohio State has lost two straight since 2011, and the first time it has lost back-to-back games to unranked opponents since October 1992. CBS adds that the Buckeyes last had three regular-season losses in 2011.

UCLA 34, Minnesota 20. Ty Dieffenbach had 303 yards on just eight completions, including two 75-yard fourth-quarter touchdowns to Aidan Mizell on consecutive one-play drives. Minnesota missed two 56-yard field goals, and UCLA scored a touchdown soon after each. The Bruins are 9-0 and 6-0 in the Big Ten. Their last three games are Illinois on Friday, at Michigan and USC.

Around the bubble. Houston beat Cincinnati 31-24 on Re’Shaun Sanford II’s 51-yard run with 5:10 left. Texas Tech held on against West Virginia 53-48, with Tommy Castellanos throwing five touchdown passes in his second start. The Red Raiders have now allowed at least 255 rushing yards in two of their last three games. Iowa won 24-10 at Northwestern and has allowed two touchdowns in three games. Arizona beat TCU 29-28 after recovering an onside kick in the final two minutes. CBS reports that SMU beat Virginia Tech 51-28, Wake Forest beat FCS Merrimack 77-0 without quarterback Gio Lopez, and South Carolina beat Texas A&M for its fourth straight win, though LaNorris Sellers left limping after the clinching touchdown. Per ESPN, Florida lost 23-7 to Oklahoma and now has a losing SEC record. Michigan lost 15-6 at home to Michigan State.

The Group of Six. Boise State played without Maddux Madsen and still won 64-38 at Colorado State. Max Cutforth went 16 of 19 for 317 yards and four touchdowns and ran for a fifth. Dylan Riley had 300 all-purpose yards and is up to 1,241 rushing yards. New Mexico beat Nevada 31-3 in its first game as an AP-ranked team and held the Wolf Pack to minus-9 rushing yards. James Madison won 54-23 at Southern Miss with JC Evans back from his opening-week injury. UTSA lost to FAU, which CBS called a blowout. The standings show Texas State won at Oregon State. Ohio beat Akron 28-20 and is the MAC’s only unbeaten team in league play.

Coaching. Florida State fired Mike Norvell early in the week. Per ESPN, the Seminoles then won at Boston College for their first true road win since November 25th, 2023. Nebraska fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen after a 24-13 loss to Illinois. CBS’s Winners and Losers says the Huskers have lost three straight; the standings and ESPN both show four, after a 5-0 start. Jason Witten called Oklahoma’s offense for the first time, and the Sooners held the ball for nearly 38 minutes. Kyle Whittingham’s Michigan is 5-4, while Scalley’s Utah is 9-0.

Corrections

The committee and margin of victory. In last week’s committee section we wrote that “the committee caps margin at 24 points.” That overstates it. CFP executive director Rich Clark has said that margin of victory is counted up to 24 points in the CFP’s strength-of-schedule data, and only there. In the committee’s discussion, he said, margin is not a hard-and-fast rule, and members look at the whole game. Our two other committee facts from last week check out: the CFP’s August release confirms this was the first of six rankings, and NCAA.com’s 2026 guide lists 13 committee members.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Georgia	8-1	Up 1
2	Utah	9-0	Up 3
3	Notre Dame	8-1	Up 1
4	Miami	8-1	Down 3
5	Indiana	8-1	Up 1
6	UCLA	9-0	Up 1
7	Texas	7-2	Up 1
8	Tennessee	7-2	Up 3
9	Alabama	7-2	Up 3
10	Texas Tech	8-1	—
11	BYU	7-2	Down 8
12	Wake Forest	8-1	Up 4
13	Houston	7-2	Up 5
14	USC	7-2	Up 3
15	Kentucky	7-2	Down 2
16	Oregon	6-3	New
17	Iowa	7-2	New
18	South Carolina	6-3	New
19	Boise State	8-1	Up 1
20	Ohio State	6-3	Down 11

 

Georgia (up 1 to No. 1). Georgia has the best set of wins of any one-loss team: at Alabama on October 10th, Florida in Atlanta, and now 42-7 at Ole Miss. Its one loss, 27-24 at home to Auburn, is still the worst loss among the contenders, and we said so all along. But Saturday was the most complete performance we have seen from anyone this season. SP+ agrees: it has Georgia at 31.3, almost seven points clear of No. 2. Missouri comes to Athens on Saturday, then Georgia goes to South Carolina.

Utah (up 3 to No. 2). Utah is 9-0 and now has two good wins, Houston last month and BYU on Saturday. Résumé SP+ has Utah first in the country. The schedule is still the weak point: ESPN had Utah’s strength of schedule 81st entering the week, and SP+ has it 76th. That is why Utah is second, not first. But 9-0 with the BYU win is not a résumé we would put below one-loss teams other than Georgia.

Notre Dame (up 1 to No. 3). This is the win the Irish needed. They beat the committee’s No. 1 team and led by 21 doing it. The remaining schedule is Boston College, SMU and at Syracuse. ESPN notes that the committee marked Notre Dame down for having only one win over a .500 team. Now it has two.

Miami (down 3 to No. 4). A seven-point road loss to a top-five team is the kind of loss that costs a few spots and no more. Miami still has the best chance in the ACC to win the league: 74.1 percent in FPI. Without Toney, though, the offense looked like a different unit. Miami was held scoreless in the first quarter for the first time since last year’s title game. Its best win is now at Wake Forest in September. That is why Indiana and UCLA are close behind.

Indiana (up 1 to No. 5). The Hoosiers were off and move up one spot because Miami lost. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Indiana is 5-1 against opponents at .500 or better. ESPN’s FPI gives Indiana a 78.9 percent chance of beating USC at home on Saturday; the Match-Up Predictor on our board has 78.2. Indiana still has no win over a team in the committee’s top 25. Saturday is its chance to get one.

UCLA (up 1 to No. 6). The Bruins keep winning, and the win at Minnesota counts for more than it looks: Minnesota took Indiana to overtime in Bloomington. UCLA also won at Oregon, and Oregon just beat Ohio State in Columbus. The schedule is still thin. ESPN had UCLA’s strength of schedule 78th; SP+ has it 92nd. Three of its opponents rank 94th or worse in FPI.

Texas (up 1 to No. 7). Texas has four wins over teams in the committee’s top 25: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Tennessee on the road, and now Missouri on the road. That is the most in the country, by CBS’s count. Its two losses, to Oklahoma and Florida, were each by a field goal. The offense still turns the ball over: ESPN counts 14 turnovers, 117th nationally. The defense ranks fourth in SP+.

Tennessee (up 3 to No. 8). The Vols’ 34-6 win over Kentucky is their second statement win, after beating Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville on October 17th. Their losses are to Texas, which is ahead of them, and to South Carolina by three on the road. The committee had Tennessee 13th and Alabama fifth. We do not see it that way. Tennessee won that game by 16 at home, and nothing since has given us a reason to override the result. Both teams won big on Saturday, so the gap between them did not change.

Alabama (up 3 to No. 9). The win at LSU was clean, even though Alabama was outgained by 172 yards. The Tide stopped LSU on all four of its fourth-down tries and intercepted Sam Leavitt at its own 24. Alabama’s losses are to Georgia and Tennessee, both ranked ahead of it. Its wins include Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU and a road win at Mississippi State. Alabama’s remaining games are at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. It will be favored in all three, and ESPN notes that the Iron Bowl is at home.

Texas Tech (holds at No. 10). Texas Tech is 8-1, but beating West Virginia 53-48 at home did not help its case. West Virginia’s defense ranks second-worst in FBS, according to the AP. Texas Tech also has a problem against the run: it has allowed 255 or more rushing yards in two of its last three games. The Red Raiders play neither Utah nor BYU, and they remain the likeliest opponent for Utah in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma State is next.

BYU (down 8 to No. 11). The loss at Utah was close, on the road, and in a rivalry game, so it is not a bad loss. But it is BYU’s second loss in three weeks, after the double-overtime loss at UCF, and four interceptions decided it. BYU’s win over Notre Dame looks better after Saturday, which is why BYU is still ahead of every other two-loss team except the three SEC teams with stronger wins. BYU’s remaining games are Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati.

Wake Forest (up 4 to No. 12). Wake Forest is 8-1, and its only loss is to Miami. Beating Merrimack 77-0 told us nothing. What we learn from comes Saturday at SMU, which is 7-2 and just scored 51 on Virginia Tech. Gio Lopez had an extra week to heal; whether he plays is the question to watch.

Houston (up 5 to No. 13). Houston beat Cincinnati, and the teams around it lost. Both of Houston’s losses were one-score road losses, at Utah and at Texas Tech. Its best win is Oklahoma State. Houston goes to Colorado on Friday.

USC (up 3 to No. 14). USC was off, and every team that had been around it lost. It goes to Indiana on Saturday, and last week we said what that game means for USC: “If USC wins at Indiana on November 14th, this paragraph changes.” The Ohio State paragraph changed this week anyway (see below).

Kentucky (down 2 to No. 15). Kentucky’s two losses are both by 28 points or more: 45-17 at home to Alabama and 34-6 at Tennessee. Its good wins, LSU and South Carolina, both came in overtime. ESPN had Kentucky second in its strength-of-record metric entering the week, which helps explain why the committee ranked it sixth. We had Kentucky 13th then, and we have it lower now. It has three games left: Florida at home, at Missouri and Louisville.

Oregon (new at No. 16). Oregon has won two straight against ranked teams, Northwestern and then Ohio State in Columbus. It also has wins over USC and Boise State. Oregon is 6-3, and its loss to UCLA came at home. The question of Oregon against USC gets its own paragraph below.

Iowa (new at No. 17). Iowa has wins over Wisconsin (30-0), Michigan and now Northwestern on the road. Its losses are to Minnesota and to Ohio State. The defense ranks fifth in SP+ and has allowed two touchdowns in three games.

South Carolina (new at No. 18). The Gamecocks started 0-3 in the SEC, losing to Mississippi State, Alabama and Kentucky. They have won four straight since, including Florida and Tennessee, and beat Texas A&M on Saturday. Sellers’s health after he limped off is the question going to Arkansas.

Boise State (up 1 to No. 19). The Broncos have won eight straight since losing their opener at Oregon by seven. Saturday answered last week’s quarterback question, at least against a defense that came in allowing 42.4 points a game, the most in FBS. Boise’s next game, Oregon State at home, is the one CBS calls a must-win to stay in front of the Group of Six.

Ohio State (down 11 to No. 20). Last week we said, “If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon on Saturday, they drop again.” They lost by 13 at home after leading 14-0. The drop is 11 spots, the most our movement rule allows. We think it is earned. We have now seen two full games of this team without Sayin, and Ohio State was pushed around on both lines in each. The FPI and SP+ ratings still have Ohio State fifth and fourth, but most of the games those ratings are built on came with Sayin at quarterback.

Why Notre Dame is ahead of BYU. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 in Provo on October 17th. That was a four-point road loss, which is the kind of result our rule allows us to override. Since then, Notre Dame has beaten Miami and BYU has lost to UCF and Utah. Notre Dame is 8-1 and BYU is 7-2.

Why USC is ahead of Oregon. Oregon beat USC 41-27 at the Coliseum on September 26th. That margin is not close, and it was on USC’s field. We are keeping USC ahead for the reason we gave last week: USC has the better record, 7-2 to 6-3, and our standard was that the head-to-head result would carry more weight if Oregon won out. Oregon has started that run with a win at Ohio State. We will say plainly that this one is close. If Oregon beats Michigan on Saturday and USC loses at Indiana, Oregon moves ahead.

Why Iowa is ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14 at Iowa City on October 3rd, with Sayin throwing for 324 yards. By our head-to-head rule, that result should hold. This is an exception, and it is the injury exception in reverse. Last week, Sayin’s absence was why Ohio State stayed ahead of USC despite a lopsided loss. This week it works the other way: the team that beat Iowa is not the team Ohio State has played the last two Saturdays. Iowa also has the better record, 7-2 to 6-3, and Ohio State is the team that has slipped. If Sayin returns and Ohio State wins out, we will look at it again.

Why Tennessee is ahead of South Carolina. Carried over: South Carolina beat Tennessee 27-24 in Columbia on October 24th. It was a three-point road loss, and Tennessee has the stronger body of work, including wins over Alabama and Kentucky.

Carried over. Indiana over Ohio State: Ohio State won 19-15 in Bloomington with Sayin playing most of the game. That position is easier to hold now, with Indiana 8-1 and Ohio State 6-3. Last week’s Boise State-over-Oregon position no longer applies, since Oregon is now ahead.

Why the rest held. Texas Tech held at 10th: it won, but BYU’s drop put it directly behind the Red Raiders and nobody below did enough to pass them.

Who’s out. Ole Miss (from 14th), LSU (15th) and Missouri (19th) all lost and all have three losses. Ole Miss lost 42-7 at home. LSU is 0-3 against the committee’s top 25, according to CBS. Missouri lost at home to Texas.

Who’s next. Ole Miss, LSU, New Mexico (8-1), Arizona (7-2), SMU (7-2) and Missouri, in about that order. New Mexico is 23rd in SP+ and has one loss, at Oklahoma, but SP+ ranks its schedule 128th.

The outside check

Last week we promised to set our ranking next to the committee’s first one. Here it is: the committee’s November 3rd top 25, from NCAA.com, next to our ranking from the same week.

Committee	Team	Record	Ours (Nov. 1)
1	Miami	8-0	1
2	Georgia	7-1	2
3	Utah	8-0	5
4	Indiana	8-1	6
5	Alabama	6-2	12
6	Kentucky	7-1	13
7	Texas	6-2	8
8	UCLA	8-0	7
9	BYU	7-1	3
10	Ole Miss	6-2	14
11	Notre Dame	7-1	4
12	Ohio State	6-2	9
13	Tennessee	6-2	11
14	LSU	6-2	15
15	Texas Tech	7-1	10
16	Wake Forest	7-1	16
17	Houston	6-2	18
18	Missouri	6-2	19
19	Iowa	6-2	Out
20	USC	7-2	17
21	South Carolina	5-3	Out
22	Arizona	6-2	Out
23	Oregon	5-3	Out
24	Florida	5-3	Out
25	Boise State	7-1	20

 

Our top two matched the committee’s. The big differences were Notre Dame (our 4th, its 11th), BYU (3rd, 9th), Alabama (12th, 5th) and Kentucky (13th, 6th). Week 10 settled most of them. Notre Dame beat the committee’s No. 1 team. Alabama won at LSU, and ESPN wrote that the win confirmed the committee’s call on the Tide. Kentucky lost by 28. The committee was right about Alabama and Kentucky, and we have moved toward it on both. We were right to keep Notre Dame high, and we expect the committee to move toward us on Tuesday.

One disagreement is left, and it is about principle: Tennessee and Alabama. Yurachek said head-to-head between those two “is not going to come into play at this point because of where those teams were reviewed in the ranking process.” He said the same about South Carolina’s win over Tennessee. In other words, the committee only looks at a head-to-head result when it considers the two teams close. Our rule works the other way: the result stands unless it was close. CBS’s bowl projection expects the committee to keep Alabama ahead.

For Tuesday, ESPN’s projection has Georgia, Utah, Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, UCLA, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech and BYU, with BYU left out to make room for Boise State. CBS projects the AP poll this afternoon as 1 Georgia, 2 Utah, 3 Notre Dame, 4 UCLA, 5 Miami, 6 Alabama, 7 Indiana, 8 Texas, 9 Tennessee and 10 Texas Tech. Every projection has Georgia first and Utah second, as we do. The biggest gap between us and both outside projections is still Alabama: we have it ninth, ESPN third, CBS sixth.

Best vs. Most Deserving

The Power Rankings reward what teams have done. This list is a different question: who would we expect to win on a neutral field next Saturday? It leans on how teams are playing now, and on FPI and SP+ (both runs dated November 8th).

#	Team	Our rank	FPI	SP+
1	Georgia	1	2	1
2	Notre Dame	3	1	2
3	Miami	4	4	3
4	Alabama	9	3	8
5	Texas	7	6	6
6	Indiana	5	8	5
7	Utah	2	10	9
8	Tennessee	8	11	10
9	LSU	Out	7	7
10	Oregon	16	9	15

 

Ohio State is not here. FPI has the Buckeyes fifth and SP+ fourth. This is our judgment, not the models’. Both ratings are built mostly on games Sayin played, and the team without him has lost two straight by 12 and 13 points. Last week we had Ohio State eighth on this list. After Saturday, we would not pick this version of the team against anyone above.

Alabama is fourth here and ninth in our rankings. That is the clearest gap between what Alabama has done and how well it plays. It sits behind Tennessee in the Power Rankings because of the head-to-head result, not because we think Tennessee is better.

LSU and Oregon are in; UCLA and Texas Tech are out. LSU is seventh in both models and lost by 18 at home Saturday. Its problem is results, not quality, and three losses keep it out of our 20. Oregon’s 41-28 win at Ohio State moved it into our list. UCLA (27th in FPI, 11th in SP+) and Texas Tech (14th and 13th) have the records but not the ratings.

Utah is seventh. That is the gap between second in our rankings and 10th in FPI. Utah’s résumé is the best in the country by résumé SP+. Its ratings are top-10 but not elite.

Notre Dame against Miami. Last week we wrote that “Saturday in South Bend answers this directly.” It did. Notre Dame stays ahead.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of the team’s chance to make the 12-team field. Change is measured against our preseason number.

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Georgia	69	95	Up 26
Notre Dame	78	92	Up 14
Miami	71	90	Up 19
Utah	—	88	New
Indiana	72	80	Up 8
Alabama	40	80	Up 40
Texas	62	78	Up 16
UCLA	—	68	New
Texas Tech	64	54	Down 10
Tennessee	22	50	Up 28
Wake Forest	—	40	New
BYU	40	36	Down 4
Ohio State	76	32	Down 44
Kentucky	—	32	New
Ole Miss	40	20	Down 20
LSU	42	18	Down 24
Houston	—	18	New
Oregon	74	18	Down 56
USC	33	15	Down 18
Iowa	20	14	Down 6
South Carolina	—	5	New
Missouri	—	2	New
Group of Six	1.00	1.03	Up 0.03
The field	1.34	0.72	Down 0.62

 

The 22 teams add up to 10.25. With the Group of Six line (1.03) and the field (0.72), the total is 12.00.

The week’s moves. Ohio State fell 24 points, from 56 to 32, the most our rule allows. BYU fell 22, LSU 22, Ole Miss 20, Kentucky 16, Missouri 6 and Miami 5. On the way up: Alabama and Tennessee gained 22 each, Utah 16, Notre Dame 14, Texas 12, UCLA 10, Wake Forest 8, Georgia 7, Texas Tech and Houston 4 each, Indiana 2 and USC 1. Indiana and USC were both idle; they rose slightly because teams around them lost. Oregon (18), Iowa (14) and South Carolina (5) come out of the field, which is why the field drops from 1.13 to 0.72.

Why Ohio State is still at 32. FPI says 41.8. ESPN’s projection already has Ohio State out, and CBS’s bowl projection says even three more wins may not convince the committee. ESPN also expects three-loss teams to get in this year, which is what keeps the number this high. Northwestern comes to Columbus on Saturday. The 32 is mostly the chance that Sayin returns and the Buckeyes win out.

Alabama at 80 and Texas at 78. FPI has Alabama at 92.5 and Texas at 74.5. With Chattanooga and Vanderbilt on the schedule, Alabama looks safe unless it loses the Iron Bowl. Texas still has to go to LSU and to Texas A&M. ESPN’s point on Texas: at three losses, it would need to be 10th or better to be safe, because if Notre Dame finishes 11th or 12th, Boise State takes the other of those two spots.

Tennessee at 50. FPI says 35.5. We are higher because we have Tennessee eighth. The committee had it 13th, and the committee’s ranking is the one that counts. LSU on November 21st is the game: FPI gives Tennessee less than a 50 percent chance there, ESPN reports.

Kentucky at 32. FPI has 36.5. CBS’s bowl projection gets Kentucky in at 10-2, which means winning out against Florida, at Missouri and Louisville. One more loss and Kentucky is out.

What the Committee Will Have to Argue About

Last week we listed the arguments the committee would face in its first ranking. Now we know how it settled them, and Tuesday’s second ranking will show whether Week 10 changed anything.

What it decided

• Ohio State without Sayin. The committee put Ohio State 12th, in the bracket. Ohio State lost again Saturday, and ESPN now projects it out.
• USC’s win against its losses. The committee ranked USC 20th, eight spots below the Ohio State team USC beat by 12. It gave the Trojans little credit for that result.
• BYU or Notre Dame. It chose BYU, 9th to 11th, which honors the head-to-head result. ESPN reported that the committee marked Notre Dame down for having just one win over a .500 team.
• UCLA’s and Utah’s schedules. Utah third, UCLA eighth. Yurachek called their résumés “almost identical,” but said Utah looked like the better team on film.
• Kentucky’s résumé against its efficiency numbers. The résumé won: Kentucky was sixth. Then it lost 34-6.
• Georgia’s home loss. It did not hurt Georgia, which was second.
• Miami’s schedule. Not a problem in the first ranking: Miami was first.
• Indiana’s “quality loss.” The committee pointed to Indiana’s defense and its 5-1 record against teams at .500 or better.
• The two-loss SEC teams. Five SEC teams in the top 10: Alabama (5th), Kentucky (6th), Texas (7th), Ole Miss (10th) and Georgia. Tennessee was 13th and LSU 14th.
• Boise State with Madsen hurt. Boise was 25th, the only Group of Six team in the top 25, and the 12th seed in the projected bracket.

Coming later

• Notre Dame’s position. If Notre Dame is in the top 12, it is in. ESPN also points out that if the Irish finish 11th or 12th, the team in the other of those spots is bumped for the top Group of Six team. Every team ranked 9th through 12th will want Notre Dame ranked higher.
• Three-loss teams. ESPN calls three-loss at-large teams likely this year. CBS projects two three-loss SEC teams into the bracket, which would make five SEC teams, a single-league record. The SEC has four teams with two league losses (Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee) and five more with three.
• Two Big 12 teams. Utah beating BYU probably took BYU out of the top 12, ESPN wrote. The second Big 12 team is now more likely Texas Tech, if it reaches the title game.
• Miami as ACC runner-up. ESPN warns that Miami might not have enough on its résumé to make the top 12 without winning the ACC.
• Tennessee and Alabama. If they finish with the same record, CBS expects the committee to keep Alabama ahead despite Tennessee’s win.
• USC at Indiana. It is Indiana’s first chance at a win over a team in the committee’s top 25. For USC, a win would put it back in the playoff conversation.
• A 12-1 UCLA. ESPN thinks UCLA is in if it wins two of its last three, whatever happens in the Big Ten title game.

The Group of Six Race

For the first time this season there is a second serious candidate. Boise State is still the favorite, and Cutforth answered the quarterback question for one week. But New Mexico is 8-1, ranked 22nd in the AP poll, and 23rd in SP+, four spots ahead of Boise.

Team	Record	League	Vs. ranked	FPI	SP+	Résumé SP+	Playoff %
Boise State	8-1	5-0 Pac-12	0-1	33rd	27th	10th	63.7
New Mexico	8-1	5-0 MW	0-1	42nd	23rd	13th	26.8
Liberty	8-1	5-0 CUSA	0-0	50th	22nd	15th	5.3
North Texas	7-2	5-0 American	0-1	55th	52nd	28th	2.4
James Madison	8-2	5-2 Sun Belt	0-0	49th	26th	27th	0.0
Memphis	7-2	4-1 American	—	57th	37th	36th	0.4
UTSA	7-2	4-1 American	0-1	78th	71st	45th	0.5

 

Playoff percentages are FPI’s. Records and league records come from the conference standings. Ranks are from the November 8th FPI and SP+ runs. FPI’s run appears to predate Texas State’s win at Oregon State, since it still lists Oregon State at 5-3.

Who is best. SP+ now has three Group of Six teams ahead of Boise: Liberty (22nd), New Mexico (23rd) and James Madison (26th). Boise is 27th, all four within 1.2 points. FPI still has Boise first among them by a wide margin, 33rd to New Mexico’s 42nd. New Mexico’s defense ranks seventh in SP+; Boise’s ranks 65th. Boise’s offense is seventh. Which one is “best” depends on which model you trust.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise. The committee ranked it last week and did not rank New Mexico. Boise’s résumé SP+ is 10th; New Mexico’s is 13th. SP+ ranks Boise’s schedule 73rd, New Mexico’s 128th and Liberty’s 131st. Boise’s one loss is by seven at Oregon, which just beat Ohio State. New Mexico’s loss is at Oklahoma, which is 5-4.

Who else. Liberty has the CUSA lead (FPI gives it 76.2 percent to win the league) but the weakest schedule in this group. North Texas is 5-0 in the American, with Memphis a game back. UTSA’s loss to FAU hurt it badly: SP+ dropped it 12 spots. James Madison has two losses.

Our split. Of the 1.03 Group of Six line: Boise State 0.64, New Mexico 0.27, Liberty 0.05, North Texas 0.03, and UTSA, James Madison, Louisiana Tech and the rest 0.01 each. Last week we had Boise 0.58, New Mexico 0.22 and UTSA 0.12. Boise’s number goes up because it won without Madsen. New Mexico’s goes up because it is the clear second choice now that UTSA has a second loss. Oregon State (0.03 last week) drops out after losing to Texas State.

This week. Oregon State at Boise State. UNLV at New Mexico on Saturday the 14th. James Madison at UConn. FPI’s conference odds: Pac-12 Boise State 74.8 percent; Mountain West New Mexico 71.2; American North Texas 53.2, Memphis 27.7, UTSA 11.8; CUSA Liberty 76.2; Sun Belt James Madison 47.0, Louisiana Tech 40.2; MAC Western Michigan 36.5, Toledo 31.1, Ohio 22.8.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 72 (down 3), Wake Forest 20 (up 4), SMU 5 (up 2), Louisville 2 (new), Duke 1, Virginia Tech 0 (down 4), Pitt 0 (down 1). Miami’s loss to Notre Dame doesn’t count in the league, where it is still 6-0, with Wake Forest 5-1. Wake goes to SMU on Saturday, and that game is the one that could change this. Virginia Tech is out after losing 51-28 at SMU. FPI: Miami 74.1, Wake Forest 20.7, SMU 2.9, Louisville 2.1.

SEC. Georgia 52 (up 9), Alabama 26 (up 14), Texas 10 (up 4), Tennessee 8 (up 3), Kentucky 3 (down 12), field 1 (South Carolina). Ole Miss (down 9), LSU (down 7) and Missouri (down 2) are now at zero. Georgia is 6-1 in the league and Alabama 5-2. Texas, Tennessee and Kentucky are all two-loss teams in the league. Georgia holds the tiebreaker over Alabama; Alabama holds it over Kentucky. FPI: Georgia 52.2, Alabama 32.7, Texas 9.0, Tennessee 4.2, Kentucky 1.1.

Big Ten. Indiana 40 (up 8), UCLA 34 (up 12), Ohio State 10 (down 24), Oregon 8 (up 7), USC 5 (up 2), Iowa 2, Wisconsin 1, Northwestern 0 (down 1), field 0 (down 4). UCLA is 6-0 and Indiana 5-1. They do not meet in the regular season, and ESPN calls UCLA–Indiana the likeliest title-game matchup. Six teams have two league losses: Iowa, USC, Illinois, Ohio State, Oregon and Wisconsin. Indiana is ahead of UCLA here, as it is in FPI, because both models rate Indiana higher and would favor it in a title game. Indiana’s remaining games are USC, at Washington and Purdue. FPI: Indiana 43.8, UCLA 19.2, Oregon 16.0, Ohio State 13.9, USC 3.9.

Big 12. Utah 58 (up 14), Texas Tech 26 (up 2), BYU 6 (down 17), Houston 5 (up 1), Oklahoma State 2 (up 1), Arizona 2 (down 1), Baylor 1. Utah is 6-0 and Texas Tech 5-1, and they do not play. BYU, Arizona, Baylor, Houston and Oklahoma State are all 4-2. Utah goes to Arizona and Texas Tech to Oklahoma State on Saturday. FPI: Utah 55.7, Texas Tech 18.0, BYU 8.0, Houston 8.0, Oklahoma State 4.5, Arizona 4.3.

Pac-12. Boise State 76 (up 6), Texas State 10 (up 7), Oregon State 8 (down 9), Fresno State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 2 (up 1), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1, Washington State 0. Boise is 5-0, and Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Utah State are all 3-2. FPI (from a run that appears to predate the Texas State–Oregon State result): Boise State 74.8, Oregon State 18.5, Texas State 4.0.

Conference Overviews

FPI’s top 25 has 10 SEC teams, six from the Big Ten, five from the Big 12, three from the ACC and Notre Dame. SP+ sees it differently this week: seven Big Ten teams, six Big 12, five SEC, four ACC, Notre Dame, and one each from CUSA (Liberty) and the Mountain West (New Mexico). Last week SP+ had eight SEC teams in its top 25. Ole Miss (down 17 spots to 30th), Missouri (down 12 to 29th), South Carolina (down 4 to 28th) and Kentucky (down 7 to 41st) account for the drop.

SEC. Georgia is back on top. Behind it, ESPN describes what amounts to an NFL-style race. Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee all have two conference losses, and Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri and Oklahoma have three. ESPN thinks the title game could be a two-loss team against a three-loss team. The week’s results raised questions about Kentucky and Ole Miss, whose records look better than their play. Florida is 3-4 in the league and Texas A&M 1-5.

Big Ten. UCLA (6-0) leads Indiana (5-1), and the six teams behind them all have two league losses. Ohio State is one of them, and Oregon is another, with wins over USC and Ohio State. ESPN points out that UCLA and Indiana never met in the Rose Bowl in the Big Ten–Pac-12 era; this year they may meet in Indianapolis. Nebraska started 5-0, has lost four straight, and has fired its offensive coordinator.

Big 12. Utah is 6-0 and has the nation’s longest winning streak, 14 games. Texas Tech is 5-1. Five teams are 4-2, and Arizona hosts Utah on Saturday. The league’s best chance at a second playoff team is now Texas Tech or Utah as runner-up, not BYU.

ACC. Miami (6-0) and Wake Forest (5-1) lead. Louisville and SMU are 5-2, and Duke and Clemson are 4-2. SMU hosting Wake Forest on Saturday is the league’s biggest game left before December. Florida State fired Norvell and then won at Boston College. Duke won by 38 at NC State, CBS reports.

Pac-12. Boise State is 5-0 and has won eight straight. Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Utah State are 3-2. CBS notes that the league’s first flex week at the end of November will set Boise’s Week 13 opponent later. The Pac-12 has the best Group of Six numbers in FPI (average −2.4, median −1.8, one team below 100th) and in SP+ (average −1.3, median −0.45, three teams below 100th).

American. North Texas is 5-0 and has won six straight, with Memphis and UTSA at 4-1. UTSA’s loss to FAU makes North Texas–UTSA, still to come, the game that decides the race. Tulane, last year’s champion, lost 60-10 to Tulsa and is 4-5. FPI average −6.2 (median −4.0, 5 of 14 teams below 100th); SP+ average −4.4 (median −2.45, 5 below 100th).

Mountain West. New Mexico is 5-0, with Wyoming at 5-1 and North Dakota State at 4-2. New Mexico (23rd) and North Dakota State (34th) give the league two teams in SP+’s top 35. FPI average −8.7 (median −9.65, 5 of 10 below 100th); SP+ average −6.3 (median −5.7, 4 below 100th). Northern Illinois is 0-9.

Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 5-0. In the East, Georgia Southern (4-1) leads James Madison (5-2) on percentage. James Madison is 26th in SP+, the highest in the league, and won 54-23 on Thursday. FPI average −9.3 (median −10.25, 9 of 14 below 100th); SP+ average −7.0 (median −7.6, 6 below 100th).

MAC. Ohio is 5-0 and the league’s only unbeaten team in conference play. Buffalo, Toledo and Western Michigan are 4-1. FPI average −15.2 (median −15.3, 10 of 13 below 100th); SP+ average −12.6 (median −13.2, 9 below 100th). CUSA, for the record: Liberty and Jacksonville State are both 5-0. FPI average −11.7 (median −13.85); SP+ average −8.8 (median −11.85).

The Week 11 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
Florida at No. 13 Kentucky	Sat · TBA	UK -2.5	53.8%	53.5
No. 11 Wake Forest at No. 25 SMU	Sat · TBA	WAKE -2.5	59.4%	61.5
No. 10 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State	Sat · TBA	OKST -2.5	51.0%	70.5
No. 2 Utah at No. 23 Arizona	Sat · TBA	UTAH -2.5	60.4%	53.5
No. 16 USC at No. 7 Indiana	Sat · TBA	IU -7	78.2%	49.5
Missouri at No. 1 Georgia	Sat · TBA	UGA -13.5	88.8%	47.5
No. 8 Texas at No. 24 LSU	Sat · TBA	LSU -4.5	52.6%	45.5

 

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings. Percentages are ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor: each is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of this afternoon’s AP poll, not the poll itself. All games are Saturday, November 14th. Kickoff times and networks were not set when we wrote this; the SEC, for one, announces its times on Monday. FPI and SP+ conversions are our own arithmetic: the rating difference plus about 2.5 points for the home team.

Where the models and the market split. Missouri at Georgia is the biggest gap. SP+ makes Georgia about a 20-point favorite and FPI about 17, against a line of 13.5. Texas at LSU is the other: both models have LSU by about one or two points, against 4.5. In Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, both models call it close to even and the line has Oklahoma State by 2.5.

Game	FPI	SP+	Line	Our pick
Florida–Kentucky	UK about 1.5	UK about 5	UK 2.5	Kentucky to cover
Wake Forest–SMU	Wake about 3.5	Wake about 1.5	Wake 2.5	Wake to cover
Texas Tech–Oklahoma State	OKST under 1	Even	OKST 2.5	Texas Tech to cover
Utah–Arizona	Utah about 3.5	Utah about 3.5	Utah 2.5	Utah to cover
USC–Indiana	IU about 9	IU about 10	IU 7	Indiana to cover
Missouri–Georgia	UGA about 17	UGA about 20	UGA 13.5	Georgia to cover
Texas–LSU	LSU about 1	LSU about 2	LSU 4.5	Texas to cover

 

Predictions

Kentucky 26, Florida 23. FPI’s ratings make it Kentucky by about 1.5 points and SP+’s by about 5, and the line is 2.5, so the models split on the spread. ESPN gives Kentucky a 53.8 percent chance of winning. Kentucky’s last two big games were 28-point losses, but it is at home in a sold-out stadium, and Florida is coming off a 23-7 loss in which it ran into a team holding the ball for 38 minutes. Florida’s defense ranks 53rd in SP+. Kentucky wins and covers. Under 53.5. What it means: a Kentucky loss would be its third and would end its playoff case. A win keeps it on CBS’s 10-2 path.

Wake Forest 31, SMU 27. FPI makes it Wake Forest by about 3.5 points, SP+ by about 1.5, against a 2.5-point line. ESPN gives Wake Forest a 59.4 percent chance of winning. Both models favor Wake, but they split on the spread, so this cover is not a strong call. If Lopez plays, Wake’s offense (13th in SP+) should do enough against an SMU defense ranked 35th. Wake Forest wins and covers. Under 61.5. What it means: a Wake Forest win keeps it one loss behind Miami in the ACC and in our playoff conversation. An SMU win puts the Mustangs in our top 20 and makes the November 21st game at Notre Dame matter for both.

Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 36. FPI makes it Oklahoma State by less than a point; SP+ calls it even. The line is Oklahoma State by 2.5, and ESPN gives the Cowboys a 51 percent chance of winning. This is the one pick where we go against the market and FPI, though both lean only slightly, and SP+ is with us. Oklahoma State’s offense is third in SP+ and Drew Mestemaker is coming off a game with six total touchdowns at Kansas State. But its defense is 66th, and Texas Tech’s offense is eighth. Texas Tech wins, so it covers as the underdog. Over 70.5. What it means: a Texas Tech win keeps it on course for the Big 12 title game against Utah. A loss would be its second, and CBS’s projection has it out of the bracket already.

Utah 27, Arizona 21. Both models make it Utah by about 3.5 points, against a 2.5-point line. ESPN gives Utah a 60.4 percent chance of winning. Utah has outscored opponents 103-9 in the first quarter, and Arizona needed a late onside kick to beat 4-5 TCU at home. ESPN calls this probably Utah’s last game against a ranked opponent. Arizona has won seven straight at home. Utah wins and covers. Under 53.5. What it means: a Utah win makes it 10-0, and ESPN says a 12-0 Utah would almost certainly be in the top 12 even with a title-game loss. An Arizona win would be the Wildcats’ first over a ranked team this season.

Indiana 26, USC 17. FPI makes it Indiana by about 9 points, SP+ by about 10, against a 7-point line. ESPN gives Indiana a 78.2 percent chance of winning. Indiana’s defense is second in SP+ and USC’s offense 15th. USC’s defense is 39th, so even an Indiana offense that has struggled at quarterback should score enough. Indiana wins and covers. Under 49.5. What it means: an Indiana win gives it its first win over a team in the committee’s top 25 and keeps it a game behind UCLA. A USC win changes our rankings as we promised and puts the Trojans in the playoff conversation.

Georgia 31, Missouri 14. FPI makes it Georgia by about 17 points, SP+ by about 20, against a 13.5-point line. ESPN gives Georgia an 88.8 percent chance of winning. Last week we went against SP+ in this kind of spot and were wrong. Missouri’s run game, with Jamal Roberts, the SEC’s leading rusher, was held to 66 yards by Texas, and Georgia’s defense is first in SP+. Georgia wins and covers. Under 47.5. What it means: a Georgia win keeps it first. A loss would be its second, and No. 1 would be open again.

LSU 24, Texas 21. FPI makes it LSU by about 1 point, SP+ by about 2, against a 4.5-point line. ESPN gives LSU a 52.6 percent chance of winning. Our pick rule says not to go against FPI, SP+ and the market all at once without a strong case, and we don’t have one. Texas’s defense (fourth in SP+) is good enough to keep this close, but the Longhorns have committed 14 turnovers this season. LSU wins, Texas covers. Under 45.5. What it means: a Texas loss would be its third. ESPN’s point applies: at three losses, Texas would need to be 10th or better to be safe. An LSU win puts it back near our top 20 with Tennessee next.

The tally: Six favorites straight up (Kentucky, Wake Forest, Utah, Indiana, Georgia and LSU) and one underdog (Texas Tech). Against the spread, five favorites (Kentucky, Wake Forest, Utah, Indiana and Georgia) and two underdogs (Texas Tech and Texas). Six unders and one over (Texas Tech–Oklahoma State).