2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 3, Previewing Week 4

Week 3 gave us Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford, a stunner at Kyle Field, and a finish in Nashville that coaches will be showing their teams for years.

Quick Hits

Our Week 3 picks went 4-4 straight up, 1-6 against the number and 4-2 on totals. Louisville was the only clean sweep. Alabama won by 14 on a 17.5-point line, and Texas Tech won by two laying ten.Three weeks in, we are 10-10 straight up and 6-12-1 against the number.

Chambliss wins the rematch. Kiffin plucked Trinidad Chambliss out of Division II Ferris State and made him a star. On Saturday Chambliss beat him. Ole Miss led 24-7 at the half, LSU scored 17 straight to tie it with 11:21 left, and Chambliss answered with a 75-yard drive capped by a 14-yard keeper against the grain. LSU then went 69 yards in 13 plays and had fourth-and-goal at the 6. Leavitt’s throw was tipped at the line and intercepted in the end zone. Ole Miss is now 24-1 at home since 2023, the best mark in FBS. Chambliss is playing this season because he won his eligibility case in court.

We were wrong about LSU, and it was not the injury. Leavitt was listed doubtful on Wednesday, came off the report Friday night and played. He threw for 153, ran for 63 and accounted for two touchdowns. We took LSU on the strength of a defense that had held Clemson to ten. Ole Miss had 24 by halftime.

Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21, at Kyle Field. The Aggies were 17-point favorites. Kentucky scored 28 unanswered and outgained A&M 196 yards to 20 in the third quarter. Mark Stoops won one road game against a top-10 team in twelve seasons. Will Stein, who was calling Oregon’s offense a year ago, did it in his first try. His defensive coordinator, Jay Bateman, ran A&M’s defense the two previous seasons, and Marcel Reed finished 26 of 49 with two interceptions. Mike Elko told Stein in the handshake line that Kentucky had beaten his team up. A&M has lost three of its last five games dating to last season.

NC State found a way. Up 31-28 with six seconds left and fourth down at its own 5, NC State sent CJ Bailey out to run around in the end zone and take a safety. He got hit, the ball came out, and Vanderbilt fell on it for a 35-31 win. NC State had not trailed all day. Bailey is a three-year starter. Dave Doeren, in his 14th season, said afterward the ball simply had to be protected. After a lopsided opening loss to Virginia, the Wolfpack are 1-2, and Doeren’s name is starting to show up in hot-seat conversations. Vanderbilt is 3-0 behind freshman Jared Curtis.

Keelon Russell is making the throws now, not just the runs. Tuscaloosa booed the playcalling in the first half as Florida State went up 21-6. Then Alabama scored touchdowns on five straight possessions. Russell threw for 320 yards and three scores without an interception and broke a 57-yard touchdown run. He lifts this offense more than any quarterback DeBoer has had here. The defense is the worry. Florida State converted 8 of 15 third downs against a unit that had allowed 1 of 23, and Duce Robinson caught six for 135. Alabama has now won 88 straight home games against unranked teams.

Florida can score. Jon Sumrall’s Gators have averaged 54 points through three games, the most by any Florida team in program history over that stretch. Last season Florida never scored more than 29 in an SEC game. Jadan Baugh has run for at least 136 yards every week, and Aaron Philo has thrown for 200-plus every week. The 44 points at Auburn were the most by a Jordan-Hare visitor in seven years. Now it gets real: five of Florida’s next six opponents are ranked, starting with Ole Miss on Saturday.

West Virginia is 3-0. Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in from Oklahoma in January. On Saturday he went 10 of 17 for 190 and two scores and ran 18 times for 123 and three more as a double-digit underdog beat Virginia 38-27 in Charlotte. About two-thirds of the 39,377 in the building were West Virginia fans, and Rich Rodriguez said it felt like a home game. Hawkins isn’t a polished passer yet, but he’s fast and he’s fearless. Oklahoma State visits Morgantown on Saturday.

Mensah is the Heisman leader. He completed his first 24 passes at Wake Forest, an ACC single-game record, and his 35 straight across two games were two shy of the FBS record. Through three games he has 873 yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and an 89.9 percent completion rate. He may not even be the best player on his offense. Malachi Toney has 28 catches for 444 yards and five scores. Toney limped off Friday, Mark Fletcher Jr. was banged up, and running back CharMar Brown was carted off with a knee injury.

Hot seats. Rutgers is 0-3 for the first time since 2008. Two weeks after managing 346 yards against UMass, the Scarlet Knights put up 460 on USC, and still lost. Florida State looked like a bowl team in Tuscaloosa, but Ashton Daniels threw three interceptions, the Seminoles are 1-2, and the school fired its athletic director this month. Arkansas trustees called for a review of the program’s competitiveness the day before a 45-17 home loss to Georgia, the Razorbacks’ twelfth straight SEC defeat.

Power Rankings

Ole Miss moves up four. The Rebels own two wins over ranked teams, Louisville in Nashville and LSU at home, and nobody else can say that. Chambliss is calm when the pocket isn’t. He led the winning drive after Kewan Lacy left with a shoulder injury, and Lacy’s X-rays were negative. The preview noted Ole Miss led in the second half of every game it played last season, and it held a second-half lead again on Saturday. The schedule does not ease: at Florida Saturday, at Vanderbilt after the bye, at Texas on October 24th, Georgia on November 7th.

Miami slips one. Ole Miss passes the Hurricanes, and Friday was the first time Miami looked mortal. After Mensah’s 24-for-24 start, the offense went three-and-out four straight times and the defense had to win the game. Toney and Fletcher are both being evaluated. Central Michigan visits before the trip to Clemson on October 3rd.

LSU drops two. A 17-point comeback in the most hostile building on the schedule, lost at the goal line, is not a collapse. The injuries are the concern. Trey’Dez Green hurt his right knee on a catch in Ole Miss territory, and Dashawn Spears left with a lower leg injury. Leavitt has four turnovers in two games after missing spring practice, and no receiver has emerged as the clear top target. The math is now unforgiving. No three-loss team has made the 12-team field as an at-large in three seasons, and the loser of Saturday’s game in Baton Rouge will be 2-2.

Florida enters at 17. A road SEC win in a loud building, with a balanced offense and a running back who looks like a problem for anyone. Baugh carried 26 times Saturday and got stronger as the game went on. The preview flagged Florida as the biggest climber in the CBS 138. The next six weeks will tell us how far.

Texas A&M drops eleven. The preview asked whether eleven wins was the new baseline or the outlier. A home loss as a 17-point favorite to a Kentucky team that lost by 28 the week before is a real answer. The Aggies replaced ten draftees and a rebuilt line, and it shows. After the trip to LSU, five of their last eight opponents are currently ranked.

Oklahoma leaves the ranking. The Sooners needed a fourth-down stop in the red zone to beat New Mexico 14-6, a week after losing 17-10 at Michigan. That is 24 points in two games for a team with the fourth-hardest schedule in the country, and the hardest part starts in Athens.

Alabama holds at eighth. Texas Tech, BYU, USC, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Iowa and Utah each move up one as a consequence of the moves above.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll keeps Texas first, moves Ole Miss to fourth, drops Texas A&M out and brings Florida in at 19th. ESPN’s FPI, updated September 20th, has Ohio State and Texas tied at the top with identical ratings, Texas A&M 12th and Ole Miss 13th. We sit between the projected poll and the model on both, with Ole Miss sixth and A&M 20th. Oregon lands in the same place: 21st in the projected poll, ninth in FPI, 14th here.

Texas stays first on its defense, which held UTSA to 143 yards. Arch Manning was 16 of 32, and Colin Simmons left in a walking boot that Steve Sarkisian called precautionary. You could make the argument for Ole Miss at No. 1 on résumé, and CBS’s overreactions column did exactly that. ESPN’s committee projection has the Rebels second. It also leaves Texas Tech out of the bracket for a second straight week, with BYU as the projected Big 12 champion, and ESPN’s buy-sell column is selling the Red Raiders outright.

The Playoff Field

Ole Miss gains fourteen points on the week and Texas A&M loses twenty-four. Oregon comes down six more before its trip to the Coliseum, and a November trip to Columbus is still ahead. USC drops eight after allowing 460 yards to a winless Rutgers team, with Penn State and Indiana still to come on the road. Texas moves to 78 on the best win in the sport, and FPI gives the Longhorns the highest playoff probability in the country. Penn State, Tennessee and Utah rise on three comfortable wins apiece. Texas Tech gives back six. It has no ranked opponent left on its schedule, which means no chance to impress anyone before the Big 12 title game. Alabama gains four. The field grows to 1.34, with Louisville, Mississippi State, Pitt and Oklahoma all sitting just outside the twenty.

Notre Dame and Miami are three points apart in our table, and FPI orders them the same way, 80.8 percent to 77.6. ESPN’s committee projection has Miami ahead, fifth to sixth. The Irish have Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford next. They meet Miami in South Bend on November 7th.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 55 (up 4), Louisville 16 (up 4), SMU 8 (down 5), Pitt 6 (up 3), Virginia Tech 6 (up 1), Virginia 4 (down 3), Clemson 3 (down 3), field 2 (down 1). Louisville now owns the head-to-head with SMU, has no ranked team left on its schedule, and does not play Miami in the regular season. SMU drops five after running for 257 yards and still losing the turnover battle 3-0. Virginia does not play a league game until October 3rd at Florida State.

SEC. Texas 24 (up 3), Georgia 24, Alabama 14 (up 1), Ole Miss 14 (up 6), LSU 9 (down 5), Texas A&M 4 (down 8), Florida 4 (new), Oklahoma 3 (down 1), field 4. Texas draws level with Georgia, and FPI has the Longhorns slightly ahead. Ole Miss holds the tiebreaker over LSU and still has to go to Austin. LSU loses five on the tiebreaker and on Green’s knee. A&M loses eight, with Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa still ahead and Texas at the end.

Big Ten. Ohio State 33 (up 1), Indiana 27, Oregon 13 (down 2), USC 10 (down 2), Penn State 7 (up 3), Michigan 6 (down 1), field 4 (up 1). Twenty-three points of this table meet at the Coliseum on Saturday night.

Big 12. Texas Tech 32 (down 4), BYU 27 (up 1), Utah 17 (up 4), Kansas State 6 (up 1), Houston 5 (down 3), West Virginia 4 (new), Arizona 3 (down 1), Oklahoma State 3, TCU 2 (down 1), field 1 (down 1). Tech won, but for the second straight week it allowed more yards than in any game last season. Tech misses both BYU and Utah in the regular season, which was always the argument for this number and still is. BYU is 11-2 on the road since 2024. Utah is 14-2 since Devon Dampier arrived and has outscored three opponents 142-24. Houston falls to five; the Cougars’ close-game luck finally ran the other way.

Pac-12. Boise State 46 (up 2), Fresno State 14 (up 3), San Diego State 11 (down 3), Texas State 10 (down 2), Oregon State 7 (up 3), Washington State 6 (down 2), Colorado State 3 (up 1), Utah State 3 (down 2). Boise needed the fourth quarter to beat an FCS team, and the Broncos still gain, because San Diego State lost at home to James Madison.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a third week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12.

1. The SEC. FPI has eleven SEC teams among its top 24, and the middle of the league got stronger on Saturday. Kentucky won at Kyle Field. Florida won at Auburn. Mississippi State trailed South Carolina 13-0 after one quarter, then went on a 41-10 run to win 41-34. Kamario Taylor threw four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are 3-0 with Missouri and Alabama coming to Starkville next. Vanderbilt and Missouri are unbeaten too. Saturday is the fullest SEC day of the season so far: Texas at Tennessee, Ole Miss at Florida, Oklahoma at Georgia, Texas A&M at LSU and Missouri at Mississippi State.

2. The Big Ten stays second on its top two. FPI still rates Ohio State first in the country at 2-1, and Jeremiah Smith, three games into his junior year, is already the program’s career receiving leader. Indiana has two straight shutouts and has not played anyone. USC is 4-0 and fumbled a snap in the victory formation at Rutgers. Michigan trailed a UTEP team that had lost 51-0 to Oklahoma before waking up. Northwestern beat Colorado 41-7. League play starts in earnest this weekend.

3. The Big 12 keeps third on the head-to-head, and that is now the whole argument. West Virginia beat a ranked Virginia team in Charlotte. Houston came within a two-point try in Lubbock. BYU and Utah look like the class of the league. Below that it was a rough weekend. Colorado, which beat Georgia Tech in the opener, lost 41-7 at Northwestern. Kansas lost to Arizona State in London. Cincinnati needed a 28-point second half to beat Miami of Ohio. FPI has three Big 12 teams and three ACC teams in its top 25, and the best ACC team sits nine spots above the best Big 12 team.

4. The ACC has the best team of the two. Miami showed on Friday that its defense can win a game when the offense stalls. Louisville is clearly second. Keyjuan Brown is explosive, the offense has not turned it over, and the defense, which ranks in the triple digits nationally after allowing 41 to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU, is the one thing between the Cardinals and a date with Miami in the ACC title game. Behind them it thins fast. Virginia lost, NC State lost in the worst possible way, Clemson needed a comeback against North Carolina, and Florida State is 1-2.

5. The Pac-12 had the weekend the Group of Six has been having all year. San Diego State lost at home to James Madison. Colorado State lost to BYU, its 28th straight loss to a ranked team. Utah State was shut out by Utah. Boise State was tied 24-24 with an FCS team with ten minutes left before Dylan Riley broke an 83-yard touchdown run to finish a 198-yard night. The Broncos are still the league’s best team by a distance, and ESPN’s committee projection still gives them the Group of Six bid. They go to Western Michigan on Saturday.

The Week 4 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll. Networks for Wake Forest at Louisville and the two 3:30 SEC games had not been announced at press time. Two games have the model and the market naming different favorites: Oregon at USC and Oklahoma State at West Virginia.

Predictions

Texas 24, Tennessee 20. The Texas defense held UTSA to 143 yards and has not let anyone find a rhythm since halftime against Ohio State. The offense is the question it was in August. Texas backs scored six rushing touchdowns all of last season, and on Saturday Manning ran nine times, none of them designed runs. Tennessee hired Jim Knowles to fix its defense, and this is the first ranked opponent it has seen. Simmons’s boot is worth watching all week. Texas wins, Tennessee covers. Under.

Louisville 31, Wake Forest 21. Louisville’s backs are the most explosive in the ACC. Isaac Brown led the nation at 8.75 yards per carry last season, and Keyjuan Brown just went for 163 on ten carries. Louisville has not turned it over all year. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed 72 points in two real games, though, and Wake Forest has won 11 of its last 16 under Jake Dickert. Gio Lopez threw for 312 against Miami. Seven of Louisville’s eight losses over the previous two seasons came by one score, and this program does not do comfortable. Louisville wins, Wake Forest covers. Under.

Florida 31, Ole Miss 28. Ole Miss comes off the most emotional game on its schedule and goes on the road to the Swamp. Lacy’s X-rays were negative, but he did not finish the LSU game. Florida has scored 54 a game and Baugh is the best back Ole Miss will see before Texas. Chambliss was second in FBS in passing grade under pressure last season and will get his points. The Rebels’ defense gave up 17 straight to LSU before finding its footing, and that is the part that worries us. Florida covers. Over.

Georgia 27, Oklahoma 10. This was Oklahoma’s circle game in August. It no longer looks like a coin flip. Oklahoma has 24 points in its last two games. Georgia ran on 36 of its first 42 plays at Arkansas, and Gunner Stockton is throwing about 15 times a game. That is the old Georgia problem, 126th nationally last season in share of passing yards thrown ten or more yards downfield. It will be enough here. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss last year and will keep it from getting silly. Georgia covers. Under.

Michigan 20, Iowa 16. The lowest total we have printed all season, and it has earned it. Iowa lost four games last season by fifteen points combined and still has the best offensive line on the field. Michigan has the better front seven and held Oklahoma to ten in this building two weeks ago. It also trailed UTEP in the second quarter. Bryce Underwood isn’t a finished product, but he’s the most dangerous player on the field. Iowa does not lose by a lot. Michigan wins, Iowa covers. Under.

West Virginia 31, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN makes West Virginia a 59.7 percent favorite, and the market makes them a home underdog. We side with the model. This was our most contrarian preseason call: Drew Mestemaker led FBS with 4,379 passing yards at North Texas, and Caleb Hawkins had the best rushing grade in the country. Oklahoma State has since lost to Tulsa and beaten Oregon, and nobody knows which one is real. Michael Hawkins is the best player in this game, and Morgantown at night is a hard place to find out. The upset. Over.

LSU 27, Texas A&M 20. The loser is 2-2 and out of margin. A&M has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins since joining the SEC, and last season’s eleven look more like the exception every week. LSU may be without Green, and Leavitt has to stop giving the ball away. Tiger Stadium at night is enough for LSU to win it. Not by nine. ESPN has LSU at 63.2 percent, well short of what an 8.5-point line implies, and we agree with the discount. LSU wins, A&M covers. Under.

Oregon 34, USC 31. Last year USC allowed the fewest air yards per attempt in FBS. This year it has allowed 30 or more in three of four games and gave up 168 rushing yards to Rutgers. Oregon brings the defensive line we ranked first in the country in August. Lanning is 5-7 against top-15 teams, and four of those five wins came by a touchdown or less. This is the game the preview said would put Oregon’s path to a top seed in its own hands. Dante Moore turned down the NFL to play games like this one. Oregon wins outright. Over.