2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 4, Previewing Week 5

Week 4 gave us a new power in Gainesville, a scare in Knoxville, a frightening night at the Coliseum and the first real answers of the season.

Quick Hits

We were wrong about Ole Miss at sixth. Florida won 52-28, and it was not close after halftime. Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns, Duke Clark added 126, and the Gators ran for 302 yards and six scores. Florida scored touchdowns on five straight second-half drives. Baugh has topped 100 yards in five straight games, which puts him with Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor in school history. Florida had lost 12 in a row to top-five teams.

Ole Miss played without Kewan Lacy, and his replacement ran 11 times for 31 yards. Trinidad Chambliss hurt his left thigh on the second series, rode the exercise bike between drives and still threw for 298. Pete Golding said his team got whipped. We would not argue.

Texas survived Knoxville. Texas won 20-17, and the defense did it again. Colin Simmons, whose boot was precautionary after all, had five sacks, tying Shane Dronett’s program record from 1990. Texas had ten as a team. Simmons also drew an unsportsmanlike flag for a celebration Steve Sarkisian had to answer for afterward. Arch Manning threw for 201 yards with an interception and was sacked six times. Texas committed 11 penalties for 115 yards, gave up a punt-return touchdown and let Tennessee recover an onside kick with 1:22 left. Jelani McDonald knocked down the Hail Mary on the final play. Tennessee still has not beaten the AP’s No. 1 team since 1985.

Oregon won at the Coliseum, and lost Dante Moore doing it. In the second quarter, USC linebacker Desman Stephens hit Moore late on a slide. Stephens was ejected for targeting. Moore left in an ambulance. Dan Lanning said afterward that Moore was moving and would not say more. Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska transfer, went 19 of 25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns, and Oregon won 41-27. The Ducks scored on seven of nine drives and averaged 7.4 yards a snap. Raiola isn’t Moore, but he didn’t play like a backup. USC has lost five straight to Oregon.

Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Hank Brown took Iowa 91 yards and threw a 16-yard touchdown to Reece Vander Zee as time expired. The Hawkeyes got set for that last snap because a Michigan defensive lineman was hurt on the play before and the clock stopped. ESPN’s win probability had Michigan at 98.6 percent with 11 seconds left. It was Iowa’s first road win over a ranked Big Ten team since 2015, and it ended Michigan’s 47-game winning streak when leading at halftime, the longest active run in FBS. Three weeks ago, Michigan beat Western Michigan in the same stadium with an extra second on the clock.

LSU 35, Texas A&M 6. We had A&M covering. A&M was outgained 506 yards to 197. Sam Leavitt went 17 of 23 for 312 and hit Jackson Harris for two touchdowns, one a 57-yarder on fourth down that Lane Kiffin nearly punted away. Marcel Reed completed 10 of 26 for 106 and was pulled in the fourth quarter. The Aggies were eighth in the preseason poll. They are 2-2. LSU paid a price: Leavitt pulled a hamstring, and linebacker Whit Weeks left in a walking boot.

Two home favorites lost to unranked teams. Wake Forest won at Louisville 30-27 as a two-score underdog. Carlos Hernandez caught nine passes for 194 yards, and Gabe Kirschke blocked a 57-yard try in the final seconds. Louisville was flagged nine times for 90 yards and played without two starting defensive backs. It was the third time under Jeff Brohm that Louisville has lost the week after beating a ranked team.

At Beaver Stadium, Wisconsin trailed 17-0 and won 24-20. Colton Joseph threw two early interceptions, then led two long scoring drives, the last ending in a 72-yard touchdown to Jacob Harris on third-and-13 with 1:13 left. It was Wisconsin’s first win in State College since 2003 and Matt Campbell’s first loss at Penn State. Rocco Becht was 12 of 29 for 129 without receiver Koby Howard, who is week to week.

Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. This was our most model-dependent pick, and the market and SP+ were right. Drew Mestemaker threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns, and Oklahoma State outscored West Virginia 28-10 after halftime. West Virginia ran for 334 yards but threw for 132, and Michael Hawkins Jr. was sacked four times. The Cowboys’ Week 2 win over Oregon looks better every week.

The Heisman board moved. Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead 24-yarder with 3:57 left, as Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 to go 4-0. A month ago he was around 150-to-1. DraftKings now has him third at +480, behind Jeremiah Smith (+245) and Darian Mensah (+400). Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, and his 34 career touchdown catches tie David Boston for second in Ohio State history. Chambliss is no longer in the top three.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Texas	4-0	—
2	Ohio State	3-1	—
3	Georgia	4-0	Up 2
4	Notre Dame	4-0	Down 1
5	Indiana	4-0	Down 1
6	Miami	4-0	Up 1
7	Florida	4-0	Up 10
8	Alabama	4-0	—
9	LSU	3-1	—
10	Texas Tech	4-0	—
11	BYU	3-0	—
12	Utah	4-0	Up 7
13	Oregon	3-1	Up 1
14	Ole Miss	3-1	Down 8
15	Iowa	4-0	Up 3
16	USC	4-1	Down 4
17	Tennessee	3-1	Down 1
18	Mississippi State	4-0	New
19	Penn State	3-1	Down 4
20	Michigan	3-1	Down 7

 

Georgia moves up two. Oklahoma came in allowing 7.7 points a game. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and won by 28 without its top running back, Nate Frazier, who sat with injured ribs. Chris Cole returned a fumble 85 yards for a touchdown. Georgia’s 219 points are the most by the program through four games since 1910. SP+ and FPI both now rate the Bulldogs first in the country. You could make the argument for Georgia at No. 2. We keep Ohio State there because its only loss is by a point at Texas, and Georgia has not played anyone close to that. SP+ ranks the Bulldogs’ schedule 89th.

Florida jumps ten. Four wins, two in the SEC, one on the road at Auburn and one by 24 over the team we had sixth. The Gators have scored at least 40 in every game, the first Florida team to do that since 2001, and Jon Sumrall is the first coach in SEC history with 200 points in his first four games. The models are catching up: SP+ has Florida 12th, FPI tenth and résumé SP+ fifth. Seventh is where the résumé puts them. The next month decides whether it holds: at Missouri on Saturday, at Texas on October 17th and Georgia in Atlanta on October 31st.

Utah rises seven. The Utes have led by 20 or more at halftime of all four games, and they opened Big 12 play with a 31-17 win at Iowa State. SP+ moved them up ten spots to ninth, with the 11th-ranked defense. FPI’s playoff odds now have Utah slightly ahead of Texas Tech, 49.2 percent to 48.3. Utah does not play Tech and does not see BYU until November 7th. We keep them one spot behind the Cougars until then.

Oregon moves up one, and Dante Moore is why it is only one. On merit, a 14-point road win over the team we had 12th is worth more. SP+ has Oregon eighth and FPI ninth. But we do not know when Moore plays again, and the Ducks are off this week. Raiola started two seasons at Nebraska and looked ready on Saturday. We will move Oregon when we know who starts at quarterback against UCLA on October 10th.

Ole Miss falls eight. Two wins over ranked teams got the Rebels to sixth. A 24-point loss to a team favored by 3.5 at kickoff takes them out of the top ten. The defense is the problem. SP+ now ranks it 75th and the team 32nd, and FPI has Ole Miss 19th. Lacy’s shoulder matters. But Florida ran for 302 yards against a defense that allowed 38 to Louisville in Nashville, and that is not an injury. We now have LSU ahead of Ole Miss despite the head-to-head. LSU lost by eight on the road; Ole Miss lost by 24. ESPN’s committee projection keeps the Rebels ahead, and the real committee probably would too. Ole Miss is off, then at Vanderbilt on October 10th.

Iowa climbs three. The 91-yard drive is what people will remember. The more useful fact is that Iowa scored on both red-zone trips and Michigan went 2 of 4. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 with a defense SP+ ranks tenth, and they have won their two real tests by a combined four points. We gave Iowa 20 percent in August. Ohio State comes to Kinnick on Saturday.

USC drops four. The Trojans rallied to tie Oregon with 12:41 left, then never stopped Raiola again. SP+ has USC’s offense third in the country and its defense 49th, down from 35th a week ago. That gap is the team. Lincoln Riley is still looking for the big win, nearly halfway through his fifth season.

Mississippi State enters at 18. Two road wins over power-conference teams, at Minnesota and at South Carolina, and now a home win over ranked Missouri. It was the first win by a ranked Mississippi State team over a ranked opponent since Dak Prescott’s Bulldogs beat Auburn in 2014. Fluff Bothwell ran for 122 yards and caught six passes for 55 more. The defense, 48th in SP+, is the concern. Alabama is next.

Penn State drops four. Up 17-0 at home, the Nittany Lions failed to get a first down on four of their last five possessions. Becht’s 129 passing yards were the story, and Howard’s absence explains some of it. SP+ still likes this team at 15th, on the strength of the 12th-ranked defense. Northwestern on Friday is no gift after what the Wildcats did in Bloomington.

Michigan drops seven. A stuffed fourth-and-1 at the Iowa 18. An interception at the Iowa 2. An unnecessary-roughness flag on third down on Iowa’s final drive. Michigan lost by a point. Running back Jordan Marshall appeared to aggravate an injury, and the line is still without Andrew Sprague. SP+ has the defense ninth and the offense 52nd. The first road game of the season is Saturday at Minnesota.

Texas A&M leaves the ranking. Eleven spots down last week, out this week. The Aggies have lost two straight SEC games, by ten at home and by 29 on the road, and SP+ dropped them 25 spots to 39th.

Texas stays first. Notre Dame and Indiana each slip one as Georgia passes them; Indiana needed Lee Beebe Jr.’s 203 rushing yards to beat Northwestern 29-23 after Turbo Richard was hurt. Miami moves up one as Ole Miss falls. Tennessee slips one as Utah and Iowa pass it, though a three-point loss to the No. 1 team is no demerit. Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech and BYU hold.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll moves Florida to fifth, drops Ole Miss to tenth and brings Mississippi State in at 18th. The real poll was not out at press time. FPI’s post-Week 4 run has Georgia first, Florida tenth and Ole Miss 19th. SP+ as of September 27th has Ole Miss 32nd. We sit between the projected poll and the models on both, with Florida seventh and Ole Miss 14th.

Texas stays first on the best win in the sport. CBS’s overreactions column called the Longhorns a paper tiger and argued they could easily be 2-2. The film supports some of that. Texas ran for 61 yards and converted 3 of 12 third downs in Knoxville, and SP+ has Texas seventh. But SP+ also ranks the Texas résumé third and its schedule fourth-hardest in the country. ESPN’s committee projection keeps Texas first, followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame, and it still has Boise State bumping Oregon out of the bracket.

The Playoff Field

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Texas	62	82	Up 20
Notre Dame	78	81	Up 3
Georgia	69	80	Up 11
Miami	71	80	Up 9
Ohio State	76	72	Down 4
Indiana	72	66	Down 6
Alabama	40	62	Up 22
Texas Tech	64	50	Down 14
Florida	—	48	New
Oregon	74	46	Down 28
BYU	40	44	Up 4
LSU	42	42	—
Utah	—	42	New
Ole Miss	40	34	Down 6
Iowa	20	28	Up 8
Tennessee	22	22	—
Mississippi State	—	22	New
USC	33	20	Down 13
Penn State	26	16	Down 10
Michigan	29	14	Down 15
Group of Six	1.00	1.10	Up 0.10
The field	1.34	1.39	Up 0.05

 

Florida gains 24 points on the week, the biggest rise we have made, and Ole Miss loses 22. Texas moves to 82 and passes Notre Dame; FPI gives the Longhorns 89.6 percent, the highest in the country. Georgia gains seven on a 28-point win over the best defense it has seen. Alabama gains six ahead of a stretch that runs through Starkville and then Georgia at home. Utah gains 16 and Iowa eight. Michigan loses 20, USC 16 and Penn State 14. Indiana gives back four after the Northwestern scare, with Richard and linebacker Rolijah Hardy both hurt. BYU gives back four in its off week as Utah closes in. Texas A&M falls into the field.

The Group of Six rises to 1.10. Boise State won by 25 at Western Michigan, and North Dakota State, 4-0 in its first FBS season, now carries a 28.5 percent playoff chance in FPI. The field grows to 1.39, with Nebraska, UCLA and Pitt all 4-0 and just outside the twenty.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 60 (up 5), Pitt 10 (up 4), Louisville 8 (down 8), Virginia Tech 7 (up 1), SMU 6 (down 2), Virginia 4, Duke 3 (new), Clemson 1 (down 2), field 1 (down 1). Louisville’s home loss to Wake Forest costs it half its number, and the Cardinals go to NC State on Saturday. Friday night in Blacksburg decides who is second. Miami’s only remaining ranked opponent is Notre Dame, which is not a league game.

SEC. Georgia 27 (up 3), Texas 24, Alabama 15 (up 1), Florida 12 (up 8), LSU 9, Ole Miss 5 (down 9), Mississippi State 4 (new), Texas A&M 1 (down 3), Oklahoma 1 (down 2), field 2 (down 2). Georgia moves ahead of Texas for the first time. ESPN’s analytics give the Bulldogs the easiest remaining schedule in the league; they miss Texas, LSU, Tennessee and A&M. Florida has Texas and Georgia in back-to-back games later in October.

Big Ten. Ohio State 35 (up 2), Indiana 25 (down 2), Oregon 16 (up 3), Iowa 8 (new), USC 5 (down 5), Nebraska 3 (new), Penn State 3 (down 4), Michigan 2 (down 4), field 3 (down 1). Oregon’s number assumes Moore comes back. Iowa has a league road win banked and gets Ohio State at home. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30 (down 2), Utah 26 (up 9), BYU 24 (down 3), Oklahoma State 5 (up 2), Houston 4 (down 1), Cincinnati 4 (new), Kansas State 3 (down 3), Arizona 2 (down 1), West Virginia 1 (down 3), field 1. TCU falls into the field after losing to UCF. Tech keeps the top spot on schedule; it plays neither Utah nor BYU. It won 49-14 on Saturday, though Will Hammond threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is 4-0 after beating Kansas State and still has BYU, Tech, Utah and Houston ahead.

Pac-12. Boise State 50 (up 4), Fresno State 15 (up 1), Texas State 11 (up 1), Oregon State 9 (up 2), San Diego State 6 (down 5), Washington State 5 (down 1), Utah State 3, Colorado State 1 (down 2). San Diego State lost 41-16 to Toledo and is 1-3 before its first league game. Boise hosts Utah State on Saturday night.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fourth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. For the first time, the models split on the top spot.

1. The SEC stays first on results. FPI has eleven SEC teams in its top 25. SP+ has eight, one fewer than the Big Ten, after Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all fell out. Texas beat Ohio State in Week 2, still the best nonconference win in the sport. Five SEC teams are 4-0: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State. Four of the top five teams in résumé SP+ are from the SEC. Saturday brings Alabama at Mississippi State, Florida at Missouri and Auburn at Tennessee.
2. The Big Ten has the depth argument this week. SP+ counts nine Big Ten teams in its top 25, FPI eight. Oregon won at USC. Iowa won at Michigan. Wisconsin won at Penn State. UCLA is 4-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney and routed Maryland in College Park, and Nebraska is 4-0 after winning at Michigan State. Indiana has won 20 straight, the longest active streak in FBS, but needed a two-point stop to get past Northwestern. Against the SEC, the league has Michigan’s 17-10 win over Oklahoma. Against Notre Dame, it is 0-3.
3. The Big 12 holds third. SP+ has four Big 12 teams in its top 25 to the ACC’s three; FPI has it three to two. Utah, Texas Tech and BYU are the top tier, and ESPN’s takeaways column argues the league could put two teams in the field. West Virginia’s win over Virginia in Charlotte is still the head-to-head result between the two leagues. Below the top three it thins. West Virginia lost at home by 17, TCU lost to UCF and is 2-2, and Kansas State lost to Cincinnati.
4. The ACC has Miami and then questions. The Hurricanes beat Central Michigan 52-3 and lead the country in the share of plays that gain ten yards or more. Louisville, which we called clearly second a week ago, lost at home to Wake Forest. The new second tier is unbeaten: Pitt, Virginia Tech and Duke are all 4-0, and Pitt has climbed 17 spots to 20th in SP+. Wake Forest is 12-5 under Jake Dickert. Clemson is 3-1 but lost 51-10 at LSU in the opener and ranks 91st in SP+ offense.
5. The Pac-12 has Boise State and a lot of losses. The Broncos won 32-7 at Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champion. San Diego State lost to Toledo, Colorado State gave up 59 to UTSA, and Washington State lost to Arizona. SP+ ranks Boise 47th, and no other league team is inside the top 60. ESPN’s committee projection still gives Boise the Group of Six bid, but North Dakota State of the Mountain West is now close behind in FPI.

The Week 5 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	Fri 7:00 ESPN	VT -5.5	57.8% PITT	53.5
No. 3 Notre Dame at North Carolina	Sat 12:00 ESPN	ND -21.5	91.3%	49.5
No. 8 Alabama at No. 18 Mississippi State	Sat 12:00 ABC	BAMA -4.5	74.2%	59.5
No. 7 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa	Sat 3:30 CBS	OSU -14	82.9%	44.5
No. 5 Florida at Missouri	Sat 3:30 ABC	FLA -4.5	70.2%	56.5
No. 4 Miami at Clemson	Sat 7:30 ABC	MIA -17.5	87.4%	51.5

 

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. Pitt at Virginia Tech has the model and the market naming different favorites for the third straight week, and the line has moved further toward Virginia Tech since we took it. ESPN is also more confident than the market in Alabama and Florida. Percentages of 74.2 and 70.2 imply more than 4.5 points.

Predictions

Virginia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 21. In June, SP+ had Virginia Tech 33rd and Pitt 41st. Four games later it has Pitt 20th and Virginia Tech 28th, and ESPN makes Pitt a 57.8 percent favorite. The market has gone the other way. Pitt’s defense ranks 15th in SP+ and has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four games. Mason Heintschel has 13 touchdown passes, and last season Pitt won five straight after he took over as a freshman. Virginia Tech needed everything to beat Boston College 21-14 on Saturday. Friday night in Lane Stadium is worth something, and this should be close. Virginia Tech wins, Pitt covers. Under.

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 10. Notre Dame had the highest number in our August playoff table, 78 percent, and nothing since has argued with it. The Irish have won 14 straight by double digits, tied for the longest FBS streak in ten seasons. CJ Carr has one interception all year, and SP+ ranks the defense second in the country. North Carolina ranks 88th in SP+ offense and scored 15 against TCU and 20 against Clemson. Notre Dame covers. Under.

Alabama 34, Mississippi State 27. We had Alabama at 40 percent in August. Keelon Russell is the reason it is 62 now. Alabama has scored 40 or more in all four games, and Russell accounted for five touchdowns against South Carolina. Kamario Taylor has 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Mississippi State has gained 400 yards in four straight games. The Bulldogs’ defense is 48th in SP+. Alabama’s is 13th, but it let Florida State convert 8 of 15 third downs. ESPN’s 74.2 percent is more confident than the line, and we lean that way. Alabama covers. Over.

Ohio State 27, Iowa 16. Ohio State was No. 1 in the preseason poll, and we gave it 76 percent in August, second only to Notre Dame. Jeremiah Smith just had 217 yards and four touchdowns. But Illinois ran for 199 yards at six a carry on this defense. Iowa’s defense is tenth in SP+ and its offense 51st, and it has already won two games by a combined four points. Kinnick at 3:30 will not be comfortable. Both models put this around 11 or 12 points, under the 14. Ohio State wins, Iowa covers. Under.

Florida 31, Missouri 27. Florida was not in our August playoff table. Now it sits at 48 percent with the most productive offense in the SEC. Missouri’s defense ranks 14th in SP+, and the Tigers led Mississippi State 24-17 in the fourth quarter before losing. Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in Starkville, and Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156. Florida’s defense is 31st. This is also the game after the biggest win of the Sumrall era, with Texas two weeks out. SP+ makes it close; FPI makes it a touchdown. Florida wins, Missouri covers. Over.

Miami 31, Clemson 13. We gave Miami 71 percent in August; it is 80 now. Clemson opened with a 51-10 loss at LSU and has not scored more than 28 since. Its offense ranks 91st in SP+, and Miami’s defense ranks eighth. Darian Mensah is second in the Heisman odds, and Miami leads the country in explosive plays. Malachi Toney limped off at Wake Forest on September 18th, and his status is worth watching. Death Valley at night will keep it close for a half. Miami covers. Under.