Week 7 was the first Saturday since the AP poll began in 1936 that five of its top seven teams lost on the same day, according to ESPN Research. The No. 1 team lost on the final play for the second week in a row. The No. 2 team lost on the final play too. The only top-three team that survived needed two overtimes and a replay review to do it.

Quick Hits

Auburn 27, Georgia 24. We moved Georgia to No. 1 a week ago and wrote that the gap to Alabama was small. Both of them lost. Georgia led 14-0, then Auburn scored the next 24 points, and Alex McPherson kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Byrum Brown ran for 115 yards on 26 carries and threw a touchdown pass, and Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113. Gunner Stockton tied the game with a 94-yard drive in the fourth quarter, then lost a fumble at the Auburn 46 with 58 seconds left, and a roughing-the-passer penalty helped set up the winning kick. Stockton also threw two interceptions, doubling his season total. Georgia committed three personal fouls, played without KJ Bolden, and got 19 yards on nine carries from Nate Frazier in his return from a rib injury.

The loss ended Georgia’s 53-game winning streak against unranked teams. According to the AP, it was the first time since October 1990 that the No. 1 team lost in consecutive weeks, and ESPN notes that Texas and Georgia are the first No. 1 teams to lose on the final play in consecutive weeks. Auburn was a 20-point underdog.

BYU 28, Notre Dame 24. We said 12.5 points was a few too many at night in Provo and took BYU. We did not say BYU would win. Bear Bachmeier ran for two touchdowns, caught another and threw the winner, a 6-yard pass to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left. Notre Dame drove to the BYU 9 with four seconds left, and CJ Carr’s last pass fell incomplete in the end zone. The Irish also fumbled away a scoring chance at the BYU 5 before halftime when Carr lost the ball trying to spike it, only their second turnover of the season. According to the AP, Bachmeier is the first quarterback since Steve Young in the 1983 Holiday Bowl with a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game. It was BYU’s first win over Notre Dame since 2004 and its first over a top-10 team since 2018, and it came without LJ Martin.

Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. We picked Ohio State to win and Indiana to cover four points. Ohio State won by four. Julian Sayin hit Jeremiah Smith for a 38-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter for a 19-7 lead, then left with an injured right arm. Ryan Day says he will miss several weeks. Josh Hoover, back from an arm injury of his own, brought Indiana within four, and with 1:02 left he found Nick Marsh wide open at the front corner of the end zone. Marsh’s left foot came down on the white paint. The loss ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak and was Curt Cignetti’s first home loss in three seasons. Indiana had lost no fumbles in 1,487 snaps since the start of 2025, and it lost two early in the third quarter. Freshman Luke Fahey finished the game for Ohio State and threw two incomplete passes.

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10. We had Alabama by 10. DeSean Bishop ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Tennessee held Alabama to 201 yards, 54 of them on the ground, and 2 of 13 on third down. Alabama turned it over four times. Keelon Russell threw for 147 yards and two interceptions, and Ryan Coleman-Williams did not play. The Tide had 93 yards in the first half, and Tennessee’s last touchdown drive took 9:32 off the fourth-quarter clock. Alabama has lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2007.

Florida 27, Texas 24. Last week we wrote that Texas had no loss left to give. It then lost at home to a Florida team starting its backup quarterback. Tramell Jones Jr., in for the injured Aaron Philo, threw two touchdown passes to Lacota Dippre, and Jadan Baugh’s 11-yard run gave Florida the lead in the fourth quarter. Texas had led 17-3 in the second quarter. Florida’s defense, last in the SEC coming in, held Texas under 300 yards and sacked Arch Manning five times, the last one forcing a fumble on the Longhorns’ final possession. Edge rusher Colin Simmons left in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury. CBS notes that Texas is the first top-10 team since 2003 to blow a double-digit lead to an unranked opponent in consecutive weeks, and Steve Sarkisian said afterward that everything would be evaluated, including the play-calling. It was Florida’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012, and CBS notes it ended Manning’s streak of 11 straight home wins as a starter.

Miami 43, Florida State 35, in double overtime. Miami is one of five unbeaten teams left in the power conferences, and it very nearly was not. Darian Mensah threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, the last a 3-yarder to Malachi Toney in the second overtime. Toney caught 11 passes for 154 yards and threw the two-point conversion. Florida State had a 36-yard completion on fourth-and-21 called back for holding, and the game ended on Bryce Fitzgerald’s interception in the end zone, which held up on review. Mike Norvell disputed both calls. Mensah threw his first interception at Miami after 153 attempts without one.

LSU 31, Mississippi State 0. We held Mississippi State at 19 last week on the belief that Kamario Taylor was hurt, and wrote, “This is where we find out.” We found out. Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell did not play, Parker Puckett made his first start, and LSU shut the Bulldogs out. Mississippi State drove inside the LSU 40 five times and came away empty on fourth down every time. Sam Leavitt completed 31 of 38 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns, his first turnover-free game of the season, and it was LSU’s first shutout of an SEC opponent since 2007. Mississippi State has lost two straight, each by more than 30 points. ESPN’s view is that the game was too lopsided for Taylor’s absence to explain it. We took Mississippi State and the points and the over. Both were wrong.

Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32. Last week we wrote that the winner would have a case for our playoff table. Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns, and Houston led 14-3 at halftime before the teams combined for 50 points in the second half. Oklahoma State got within three with 4:54 left, and Houston ran out the clock on an 18-yard catch by Trent Walker on third-and-7 and a Weigman run for a first down. Houston is 6-1, and its only loss is the failed two-point try at Texas Tech. We had Houston covering 3.5. It won by three.

Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. Kentucky is tied with Georgia for the SEC lead. The Wildcats trailed 13-7 late in the third quarter before Ty Bryant’s first of two interceptions set up Kenny Minchey’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Willie Hernandez. Kentucky intercepted John Mateer three times and Oklahoma’s holder once, on a fake field goal that Jordan Castell picked off in the end zone. Castell’s 41-yard interception return sealed it. Kentucky gained 230 yards and won anyway, its fifth straight win under Will Stein.

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3. Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdown passes and ran for another, and Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards and Makhi Frazier for 101. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts came in off two straight 200-yard games and ran for 39 yards on 20 carries, and the Tigers finished with 39 rushing yards as a team. Missouri had first-and-goal at the Ole Miss 2 and came away with nothing after Blake Craig missed a 23-yard field goal. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards in his return to Oxford.

The rest of the ranked teams. UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7 with Ty Dieffenbach throwing for 264 yards in his first start; Iamaleava did not play. Texas Tech led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime and won 53-25, with J’Koby Williams running for 165 yards on 11 carries. Utah, a 15-point favorite, held on 27-24 at Colorado. Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14 when Dylan Raiola came off the bench and threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson with 28 seconds left; Dante Moore is still out with a concussion. Wake Forest won 41-7 at Cal, SMU beat Virginia by 10 and Northwestern won 24-21 at Michigan State. North Carolina won 24-20 at Duke on Jaylen McGill’s 24-yard run with 1:53 left, and Pitt lost 27-21 at Boston College with true freshman Corey Dailey making his first start. New Mexico beat Hawaii 21-10, and James Madison beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0. Michigan benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr and beat Penn State 21-18, and Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the Big Ten. Iowa, USC and Boise State were off.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Miami	6-0	Up 2
2	Ohio State	6-1	—
3	BYU	6-0	Up 6
4	Georgia	6-1	Down 3
5	Notre Dame	6-1	Down 1
6	Texas Tech	6-0	Up 2
7	Indiana	6-1	—
8	Utah	6-0	Up 2
9	UCLA	6-0	Up 2
10	Ole Miss	5-1	Up 2
11	Tennessee	6-1	Up 3
12	Alabama	5-2	Down 7
13	Kentucky	6-1	Up 3
14	Houston	6-1	New
15	Iowa	5-1	—
16	USC	6-1	Up 1
17	Texas	4-2	Down 11
18	LSU	5-2	—
19	Wake Forest	6-1	New
20	Boise State	5-1	New

 

Miami moves up two, to No. 1. The Hurricanes are 6-0 and the only one of last week’s top three that won. We are not moving them for how they played on Saturday, when a 3-4 Florida State team took them to a second overtime at home. We are moving them because the two teams ahead of them lost and Miami did not. ESPN’s committee projection also has Miami first, while pointing out that it still lacks a statement win. Its best wins are at Wake Forest and at Clemson, and FPI gives it a 94.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country. Miami goes to Notre Dame on November 7th.

Ohio State holds at No. 2. The Buckeyes won at a top-five team, and FPI and SP+ both now rate them first in the country. The question is Sayin. We are not moving Ohio State down for an injury to a quarterback who is expected back in weeks, but it makes the next two games, at USC on October 31st and at home against Oregon on November 7th, harder than they looked a week ago. If the Buckeyes lose one of them, we will move them then. Fahey, a freshman, was 9 of 11 for 203 yards and two touchdowns in mop-up time against Ball State and Kent State. CBS points out that Ohio State’s defense is allowing 13.4 points a game, which is the best argument that it can win with a game manager at quarterback. Both FPI and CBS’s projections give Ohio State about a 90 percent chance of making the playoff.

BYU moves up six. BYU beat Notre Dame without its leading rusher, and ESPN calls it the best win of any team in its top five. We move the Cougars past Georgia, who lost at home to an unranked team, and past Notre Dame, whom they just beat. We keep them behind Ohio State, which won at a top-five team on the road and which both models rate first; FPI has BYU 14th and SP+ ninth. SP+’s résumé ranking agrees with our order at the top, with BYU sixth, one spot behind Ohio State and two ahead of Georgia. BYU stays ahead of Utah, as we said it would, until they play on November 7th.

Georgia drops three. A home loss to a 4-2 Auburn team that was a 20-point underdog is a worse loss than any team above Georgia has. We keep the Bulldogs ahead of Notre Dame because they have two wins that still hold up, 41-13 over the Oklahoma team that beat Texas and at Alabama, and because FPI still rates them third and SP+ second. Georgia has an off week, then plays Florida, goes to Ole Miss and hosts Missouri.

Notre Dame drops one. Losing on the final play, on the road, to an unbeaten top-10 team is the kind of loss the committee forgives, and ESPN calls it a good loss in that room. It costs one spot. The problem for the Irish is what is left to make up for it. They have no conference title game, and ESPN notes their only wins over power-conference teams with winning records are Wisconsin and at North Carolina. Miami comes to South Bend on November 7th.

Texas Tech moves up two. The Red Raiders are 6-0 and led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime, and the AP notes they are 18-2 since the start of last season. They move past Indiana, which lost. SP+ moved them up three spots, to seventh. ESPN still has them 12th in its committee projection, and bumped out of its bracket by Boise State, because their best win is Houston and Will Hammond has six touchdown passes and five interceptions. We have them sixth because they have not lost and because Saturday was the first time all year they looked like the reigning Big 12 champion.

Utah moves up two. Utah won 27-24 at a 2-4 Colorado team as a 15-point favorite. That does not earn a move on its own; the Utes move because Georgia, Alabama and Texas fell past them. The AP notes that Utah’s 12 straight wins are now the longest active streak in the country. ESPN notes that it has not beaten a team with a winning record, and SP+ dropped the Utes three spots to 10th and has their schedule 116th of 138. Houston, on Saturday, is the first chance.

UCLA moves up two. The Bruins are 6-0 and the last unbeaten team in the Big Ten or SEC, and they won on Saturday with their backup quarterback. Dieffenbach completed 22 of 33 passes, and UCLA held Wisconsin to 66 passing yards. We keep them behind Utah because they have not scored more than 17 points in either of their last two games, which ESPN also flags. SP+ is split on them: it rates them 19th, but its résumé ranking has them fourth. Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan come before USC.

Ole Miss moves up two. The Rebels beat a team ranked 13th by 28 points and ran for 257 yards. ESPN’s committee projection has them seventh, with wins over LSU and Missouri that it calls statement wins. The 24-point loss at Florida is still on the résumé, and Ole Miss still has Texas, Georgia, Auburn and Oklahoma to play.

Tennessee moves up three. The Vols held Alabama scoreless for three quarters, forced four turnovers and won by 16. Their only loss is to Texas, and they have won three straight. ESPN notes that their schedule otherwise has been thin, with wins over an FCS team and a 1-5 Kennesaw State. Kentucky comes to Knoxville on November 7th.

Why Tennessee is ahead of Texas. Texas beat Tennessee in Knoxville, and we have Tennessee six spots ahead. That game was close, and Texas nearly lost it. Since then Texas has lost to Oklahoma and Florida, and Tennessee has won three straight, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Alabama. Tennessee is 6-1, and its one loss is to Texas. Texas is 4-2. The committee uses head-to-head results to separate teams with comparable records, and ESPN’s view this week is that two losses against one no longer qualifies. We are ranking the better team today, and we think that is Tennessee.

Alabama drops seven. Two straight losses, the second by 16 with 201 yards of offense and four turnovers. Both losses are to top-11 teams in our ranking, and the Tide stay ahead of Kentucky because they beat the Wildcats by 28 in Lexington. A margin that large outweighs the one game between them in the standings. The win by 33 at Mississippi State also still stands. FPI still rates Alabama sixth and gives it a 49.4 percent chance of making the playoff, and SP+, which dropped it four spots, has it 12th with the eighth-hardest schedule in the country. Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

Kentucky moves up three. The Wildcats won at Oklahoma and are tied with Georgia for the SEC lead at 4-1. They have won five straight, three of them on the road in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has them ninth on schedule strength. They are 13th here, one spot behind Alabama, because Alabama beat them 45-17 in Lexington and because their last three wins came by one, one and eight points. SP+ rates them 45th and Alabama 12th. Vanderbilt is next.

Houston enters at 14. The Cougars are 6-1, have won four straight and beat a ranked team for the first time this season. Their loss is by a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech. We put them behind Alabama because their best wins, Oklahoma State and at Kansas State, are not as good as Alabama’s. SP+ rates them 18th. They go to Utah on Saturday.

Texas drops 11. That matches the biggest drop we have made this season. The Longhorns have lost two straight to unranked teams, and the problem is the one we have written about all year. CBS has Texas at 3.66 yards a carry coming into Saturday, 117th in the country, with the worst three-and-out rate in the SEC, and the AP wrote that Manning has struggled for four straight games. We do not drop them further because they still have the two best wins of any two-loss team, over Ohio State and at Tennessee, and because FPI still rates them seventh and SP+ eighth, with the second-hardest schedule in the country. Ole Miss comes to Austin on Saturday.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. We explained this last week and said the order would change if Ohio State lost at Indiana. It did not, and Texas lost again. Ohio State is 6-1 and Texas is 4-2. ESPN’s committee projection makes the same point we did: with Texas at two losses, the committee would no longer use the head-to-head to break a tie, because the records are no longer comparable.

Wake Forest enters at 19. The Demon Deacons are 6-1, their only loss is to Miami, and they won 41-7 at Cal. FPI rates them 16th, SP+ moved them up 15 spots to 20th, and FPI gives them a 40.0 percent chance of making the playoff, mostly as the likely ACC runner-up. They are off this week.

Boise State enters at 20. The Broncos were off. They come in because Missouri lost by 28 and falls out, and because FPI rates Boise about even with Missouri on a neutral field, 30th to 27th. Boise has one loss, by seven at Oregon, and has won five straight, including at Fresno State and by 25 over Western Michigan, the MAC favorite. Missouri has the better win, over Florida, and that made this close. The two SP+ numbers split the same way we did: SP+ rates Missouri about four points better, but its résumé ranking has Boise 19th and Missouri 34th. It goes to Washington State on Saturday.

Missouri, Mississippi State and Nebraska leave the ranking. Missouri lost 31-3 at Ole Miss and ran for 39 yards, and it now has two losses to Boise State’s one. Mississippi State has lost its last two by a combined 64 points, and we are no longer willing to rank the Bulldogs on the strength of a quarterback who has not played. Nebraska has lost two straight after leading in the fourth quarter of both.

Indiana holds at seven after a four-point loss to the No. 2 team: Texas Tech passed it, but Alabama and Texas fell from above it to below it. Iowa holds at 15 and USC moves up one to 16; both were off. LSU holds at 18 after its shutout. Texas dropped in above it, and both of LSU’s losses are to teams ahead of it here, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Missouri is the first team out, ahead of Florida, which it beat by 28. Florida has wins over Texas and Ole Miss, but it also lost by 19 to South Carolina before Saturday. It is off this week, then plays Georgia in Atlanta, and CBS points out that after that it has Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, a path to 10 wins. Oregon, SMU, Northwestern and James Madison are the rest of the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll has BYU first, then Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. It has UCLA ninth, Tennessee 10th, Utah 11th and Alabama 12th, brings Florida back in at 18 and drops Texas to 19. It also projects Oregon back in at 25 and drops Mississippi State and Oklahoma State. The real poll was not out at press time.

The real post-Week 6 AP poll did come out after we published last week, and it differed from the CBS projection we used on our board. The AP had Ohio State fourth and Texas seventh, the order we argued for, where the projection had Texas fourth and Ohio State fifth. It also had Indiana fifth, Alabama sixth, Mississippi State 16th and LSU 22nd. Our board used the projection’s rankings, labeled as such.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Miami, Ohio State, BYU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Georgia, Ole Miss, UCLA, Kentucky, Tennessee, Utah and Texas Tech, with Boise State taking Texas Tech’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. Its byes go to Miami, Ohio State, BYU and Notre Dame. The first real committee ranking comes out November 3rd.

CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and BYU in the top four, then Indiana, Tennessee, Ole Miss, UCLA, Alabama, Kentucky and Notre Dame, with Oregon State in the 12th spot as the top Group of Six team. That makes three outside projections with three different Group of Six teams: ESPN has Boise State, CBS has Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. CBS also has Alabama in its field and Texas Tech out of it, and it has Notre Dame 11th. None of the three outside projections has Texas in its twelve.

We differ from ESPN and the poll projection in three places. We have Georgia fourth, ahead of Notre Dame and Indiana, where ESPN has the Bulldogs sixth; we give more weight to the win in Tuscaloosa than ESPN does, and CBS’s bowl projection goes further than we do and seeds Georgia second. We have Texas Tech sixth and in our twelve, where ESPN has it 12th and out of the bracket, for the second straight week. And we have Tennessee ahead of Kentucky, where ESPN has Kentucky ahead on schedule strength.

FPI’s October 18th run has Ohio State first, then Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Indiana, Alabama and Texas. That is our top seven with BYU and Texas Tech swapped out for Alabama and Texas. FPI has LSU eighth, Texas Tech ninth and Oregon 10th, and it is lower than us on the three teams that have won the most this year without being highly rated: BYU 14th, Kentucky 26th and UCLA 31st. As we said last week, FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here, and we give more weight to the results a team already has.

SP+’s October 18th run also has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana, and it is closer to FPI than to us. It has LSU sixth, Texas Tech seventh, Texas eighth, BYU ninth and Utah 10th, and it dropped Alabama four spots to 12th. It moved Wake Forest up 15 spots to 20th and James Madison up 12 to 28th. It is well below us on Kentucky, at 45th, and on UCLA, at 19th. It has Missouri 21st and Boise State 37th, the opposite of our order at No. 20, and for a third straight week it rates Nebraska, at 16th, higher than we do. Its résumé ranking, which grades what each team has done against its schedule, goes Miami, Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Ohio State, BYU, Texas Tech, Georgia, Indiana and Tennessee, with James Madison 11th and Boise State 19th. It has Texas’s schedule second-hardest in the country and Alabama’s eighth.

The Playoff Field

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Miami	71	92	Up 21
Ohio State	76	82	Up 6
Georgia	69	80	Up 11
Notre Dame	78	72	Down 6
Indiana	72	70	Down 2
BYU	40	66	Up 26
Texas Tech	64	62	Down 2
Alabama	40	50	Up 10
Utah	—	48	New
Ole Miss	40	44	Up 4
Tennessee	22	44	Up 22
UCLA	—	42	New
Texas	62	40	Down 22
Kentucky	—	34	New
Houston	—	24	New
Iowa	20	24	Up 4
LSU	42	24	Down 18
Wake Forest	—	18	New
USC	33	18	Down 15
Group of Six	1.00	1.12	Up 0.12
The field	1.34	1.54	Up 0.20

 

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are large. Alabama and Texas each lose 24 points, matching the biggest cut we have made this season. Alabama falls to 50 with two losses and Georgia holding the tiebreaker over it, and Texas falls to 40 with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. ESPN points out that a year ago Alabama made the field with three losses and Texas missed it at 9-3, which is about where each of them stands now. CBS’s projections give Texas a 43 percent chance of making the field, and FPI 41.2. CBS had Texas in its bowl projection a week ago and has it out now.

BYU gains 24 points, to 66, for what ESPN calls the best win of any team in its top five. Tennessee gains 20, to 44, for beating Alabama by 16. Ole Miss and Kentucky each gain 14 and UCLA gains 12, all three for winning on a day when the teams above them lost. Texas Tech gains eight, LSU six, and Miami and Ohio State four apiece. Ohio State’s gain would have been larger with Sayin healthy. Utah gains two for a win that was closer than it should have been.

Georgia and Notre Dame each give back 12. Georgia’s loss was at home to an unranked team, but it still holds the tiebreaker over Alabama and has Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri left to make up for it. Notre Dame has no conference title game to fall back on and has Miami still to play. Indiana gives back four, the same Alabama gave back a week ago for a close loss to a top-two team. Missouri loses 14 and falls into the field.

Houston joins the table at 24, as we said the winner of its game would, and Wake Forest joins at 18. Missouri, Nebraska and Mississippi State fall into the field. The field drops from 1.80 to 1.54, because Houston and Wake Forest left it for the table and because Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Pitt all lost. It now holds Oregon, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Wisconsin, SMU and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. Boise State is 20th in our ranking now, but its chance stays in that line rather than getting a row of its own, so the line can still be compared with August. The next section explains how the line divides.

The Group of Six Race

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences, and it no longer has a clear favorite. ESPN’s committee projection gives it to Boise State, CBS’s bowl projection gives it to Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. Here is how the candidates compare.

Team	Record	League	Vs. ranked	FPI	SP+	Résumé SP+	Playoff %
Boise State	5-1	2-0 Pac-12	0-1	30th	37th	19th	38.0
James Madison	7-0	4-0 Sun Belt	0-0	46th	28th	11th	44.3
New Mexico	5-1	2-0 MW	0-1	43rd	30th	26th	9.3
UTSA	6-1	3-0 American	0-1	77th	69th	38th	3.9
Oregon State	5-2	3-0 Pac-12	0-2	49th	39th	29th	3.0
North Dakota State	6-1	3-1 MW	0-0	71st	35th	30th	1.6
Liberty	5-1	2-0 CUSA	0-0	64th	46th	36th	1.3

 

Records against ranked teams count teams ranked when the game was played. FPI and SP+ ranks are from each system’s October 18th run, résumé SP+ grades what each team has done against its schedule, and each playoff number is FPI’s estimate of that team’s chance of making the 12-team field.

Who is best. The models disagree. FPI rates Boise State about four points better than James Madison or New Mexico on a neutral field. SP+ goes the other way, with James Madison 28th, New Mexico 30th and Boise 37th, about three points behind the Dukes, and résumé SP+ has James Madison 11th and Boise 19th. We have Boise in our twenty because its only loss was by seven at Oregon and because it has the best wins in the group, by 25 over Western Michigan and at Fresno State. It is closer than one system alone would suggest. UTSA is not close in either: 77th in FPI and 69th in SP+.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. James Madison, narrowly, and only because of its record. The Dukes are 7-0, FPI gives them a 39.4 percent chance of winning out to Boise’s 30.8, and the committee rewards an unbeaten champion. The case against them is the schedule. They have not played a ranked team, SP+ has their schedule 127th of 138, and the next Sun Belt team in FPI is 76th.

Who else. New Mexico is 5-1, its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma, and it hosts North Dakota State on Saturday night in the Mountain West’s biggest game. Oregon State leads the Pac-12 at 3-0 and is the team CBS projects into the field, but it has two losses and FPI gives it a 3.0 percent chance. UTSA leads the American at 3-0 and is 6-1, but FPI rates it 77th, and it would need the teams above it to lose. Liberty is 2-0 in Conference USA, behind Jacksonville State at 3-0, and is 64th in FPI, though it has a 67.6 percent chance of winning the league.

We put Boise State’s share of our 1.12 at about 36 percent and James Madison’s a little higher, with the rest spread among New Mexico, Oregon State, UTSA and the others. This week James Madison plays at App State on Thursday, Boise goes to Washington State, UTSA goes to Tulane, and New Mexico hosts North Dakota State.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73, Wake Forest 11 (up 2), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 2 (down 1), Duke 1 (down 2), field 3 (up 1). Miami won and holds; nothing about a double-overtime win over a 3-4 team argues for raising it. Wake Forest moves up after its 34-point win at Cal. Duke has lost two straight, to Georgia Tech and now North Carolina, both on touchdowns inside the last two minutes, and ESPN calls the defending champions just another mediocre ACC team. Pitt lost at Boston College, its second straight loss since Mason Heintschel’s injury. North Carolina, now 2-1 in the league, is why the field grows. FPI has Miami at 79.6 percent and Wake Forest at 13.7.

SEC. Georgia 40 (down 6), Ole Miss 13 (up 8), Tennessee 12 (up 10), Kentucky 10 (up 7), Alabama 9 (down 11), LSU 5 (up 3), Texas 4 (down 10), Missouri 2 (down 2), Florida 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Oklahoma and Mississippi State fall into the field with Texas A&M and Auburn. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Georgia’s tiebreaker over Alabama matters less now that Alabama has two. Kentucky’s number trails Tennessee’s and Ole Miss’s because it still goes to Knoxville and has Florida and Missouri left. Texas is 1-2 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 45.4 percent, Alabama at 12.7, Tennessee at 10.3 and Ole Miss at 9.9.

Big Ten. Ohio State 50 (up 8), Indiana 22 (down 12), UCLA 12 (up 6), Iowa 5, Oregon 4 (up 1), USC 3, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Nebraska 1 (down 1), field 2. Ohio State is 4-0 and holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. The race is no longer just two teams. UCLA is also 4-0, and its remaining schedule does not include Ohio State or Indiana. FPI has Ohio State at 57.9 percent, Indiana at 28.2, Oregon at 5.3 and UCLA at 4.3.

Big 12. Texas Tech 31 (up 1), BYU 27 (up 3), Utah 27, Houston 8 (up 1), Arizona 2, Baylor 2, Oklahoma State 1 (down 4), field 2 (down 1). BYU moves up because Saturday was the best evidence yet of how good it is, though the result does not count in the standings. Utah won and holds. Oklahoma State took its first league loss, and the field shrinks because Arizona State, part of it, lost by 28 in Lubbock. FPI has Texas Tech at 38.1 percent, BYU at 27.2, Utah at 21.6 and Houston at 8.5.

Pac-12. Boise State 64, Oregon State 20, Fresno State 7, Washington State 4, Texas State 2, San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. No changes. Boise State was off and goes to Washington State on Saturday. FPI has Boise at 65.1 percent and Oregon State at 29.5.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a seventh week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, the same split as a week ago. SP+ counts it differently again, with eight from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, five from the Big 12 and four from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because of FPI’s ten-to-seven edge and because the SEC has three of SP+’s top eight teams to the Big Ten’s two.

The SEC has no unbeaten teams left. ESPN counted six SEC games on Saturday with at least one ranked team, and in four of them the lower-ranked team won. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Alabama and Texas both have two losses overall after being national title contenders two weeks ago. Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31-21 for its first SEC win. CBS projected five SEC teams in the playoff before the weekend, and ESPN has four in its twelve now. Georgia is off this week. Ole Miss goes to Texas, Tennessee to South Carolina and LSU to Auburn, and Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt.

The Big Ten has one unbeaten team, and it is UCLA. Ohio State has the tiebreaker over Indiana and the bye week it needs to plan for Fahey, then goes to USC on Halloween. USC plays at Wisconsin on Saturday before facing Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks, so its season gets decided in the next month. Indiana goes to Michigan, which benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr in a 21-18 win over Penn State. Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the league under Matt Campbell. Oregon is 2-1 in the league after winning with its third-string starter and Raiola off the bench. Nebraska has blown fourth-quarter leads in back-to-back weeks. At the bottom, Rutgers beat Maryland 37-30, and CBS notes Mike Locksley is now 2-20 in Big Ten games since 2024.

The Big 12 still has three unbeaten teams, all of them 3-0 in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has all three in its twelve. Texas Tech goes to Cincinnati, and Utah hosts Houston, which has one league loss and cannot afford a second. BYU goes to UCF. Texas Tech does not play BYU or Utah, so the league’s best path to two bids is a one-loss runner-up. Arizona State, which won the league two years ago, has lost consecutive Big 12 games by more than five touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 2-1 and hosts Colorado, and it still gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th.

The ACC has one unbeaten team in Miami and one serious challenger in Wake Forest, which is off this week. Duke, the defending champion, has lost two straight. North Carolina is 4-2 under Bill Belichick and has won as a road underdog in back-to-back weeks. Florida State is 3-4 and the AP notes it is 10-22 in its last 32 games under Mike Norvell. SMU is 5-1 and hosts Cal. Pitt lost 27-21 at a Boston College team that came in 2-3, with Corey Dailey, a true freshman, making his first start, and the Panthers were flagged 13 times for 133 yards. Miami hosts Pitt on Saturday, then goes to North Carolina on October 31st.

The Pac-12 is still the best of the group. Its average team rates higher in FPI than any league below it, and FPI has Boise State 30th and Oregon State 49th, the only league in the group with two teams in the top 50. Its average also leads in SP+. Its median team now rates slightly better than the American’s in FPI, which was the other way around a week ago, but SP+ still has the American’s median ahead. SP+ is also cooler on the top of the league, with Boise 37th and Oregon State 39th, both behind James Madison and New Mexico. Two of its eight teams are below 100th. Oregon State leads the standings at 3-0, with Boise State at 2-0. The change this week is at the top of the Group of Six. FPI now gives James Madison a better chance of making the playoff than Boise State, though ESPN’s committee projection still has Boise as the top Group of Six team. Boise goes to Washington State on Saturday.

The American still has no team in FPI’s top 50, and it got less deep this week. Five of its 14 teams are now below 100th, up from three. UTSA leads the standings at 3-0 and is 6-1 overall, and FPI gives the Roadrunners a 3.9 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the league. FPI still makes North Texas, which is 2-0 in the league, the favorite to win it, at 31.2 percent, with UTSA and Memphis at 20.1 each and Army at 15.8. Memphis is 5-2, 57th in FPI and 51st in SP+, the highest-rated team in the league in both, and it hosts East Carolina on Thursday. UTSA goes to Tulane on Saturday.

The Mountain West has New Mexico, 5-1 and 43rd in FPI, with a 63.1 percent chance of winning the league after a 21-10 win at Hawaii. SP+ has New Mexico 30th and North Dakota State 35th, the best pair in any Group of Six league. North Dakota State is 6-1 and goes to New Mexico on Saturday night in the game most likely to decide the league. Air Force is the new contender. After losing to North Dakota State early in the season, it has won four straight, including 41-31 over UNLV, which was the Rebels’ first league loss. Half of the league’s ten teams are below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison, which beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0 and is now FPI’s best Group of Six playoff candidate. SP+ moved them up 12 spots to 28th, the highest of any Group of Six team, and its résumé ranking has them 11th. FPI gives the Dukes a 73.8 percent chance of winning the league and a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoff. They play at App State on Thursday night. They have also yet to play a ranked opponent. The rest of the league is the problem for them. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is Louisiana, at 76th, and half the league is below 100th.

The MAC is still last by a wide margin. Its best team in FPI is Western Michigan at 81st, and its best in SP+ is Toledo at 65th, and 10 of its 13 teams are below 100th. Western Michigan is 5-2 and 3-0 in the league, with a 47.9 percent chance of winning it, and it goes to Toledo, which is 5-2 and 2-1, on Saturday. Ohio is the only other team unbeaten in league play, and it does not play Western Michigan. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 8 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
Pittsburgh at No. 2 Miami	Sat 12:00 TBA	MIA -23.5	92.4%	51.5
No. 1 BYU at UCF	Sat TBA	BYU -7.5	70.7%	45.5
No. 14 Houston at No. 11 Utah	Sat TBA	Off	67.1%	Off
No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas	Sat 7:30 ABC	TEX -3	71.1%	53.5

 

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 24th. Kickoff times and networks are from CBS’s schedule, and three of the four were still to be announced. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, and percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. No line had been posted for Houston at Utah when we went to press. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. The market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in all three games with a line. The biggest gap in degree is in Austin, where ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning a game the market makes a three-point spread.

Predictions

Miami 34, Pittsburgh 13. ESPN gives Miami a 92.4 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make the gap about 20 points at Hard Rock Stadium. SP+ makes it about 18. The line is 23.5. Miami is the better team by a lot, but it just gave up 35 points and 298 passing yards to a Florida State team that is 3-4. Pitt has lost two straight since Mason Heintschel’s season-ending injury, to North Carolina and at Boston College, and started a true freshman, Corey Dailey, in the second of them. Dailey completed 11 of 25 passes with two interceptions, and Pitt was flagged 13 times. We think Miami wins comfortably and does not quite get to 24. Miami wins, Pittsburgh covers. Under.

What it means. Miami’s playoff case does not rest on this game, but its seeding might. ESPN’s point is that Miami would still make the field even with a loss at Notre Dame on November 7th, because an ACC title would get it in. A loss to Pitt would use up that margin before November, and it would put Miami in the loss column with Wake Forest, the team ESPN expects it to see again in the ACC title game. For Pitt, a third straight loss ends its ACC hopes.

BYU 27, UCF 17. ESPN gives BYU a 70.7 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 10 points in Orlando. SP+ makes it about 14, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country against a UCF offense it ranks 81st. The line is 7.5. The obvious worry is a letdown, a week after the biggest win of the season and on the road across the country. But UCF is 3-3 and 51st in FPI. Bachmeier is playing as well as any quarterback in the country, and LJ Martin’s status is worth watching. We think BYU wins by double digits in a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. BYU wins and covers. Under.

What it means. BYU’s playoff case is now built on the Notre Dame win, and a loss to a 3-3 team would take much of the shine off it before the first committee ranking on November 3rd. The bigger stakes are in the Big 12. BYU and Utah play on November 7th, and the league’s best chance at two playoff bids is for one of them to be a one-loss runner-up. BYU at 7-0 going into Salt Lake City keeps that possible.

Utah 28, Houston 24. ESPN gives Utah a 67.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about five points at Rice-Eccles Stadium. SP+ makes it about seven and a half. No line had been posted when we went to press. Utah has scored a touchdown on its opening drive in every game and has outscored opponents 75-3 in the first quarter, which matters because Houston’s offense is at its best once it gets going. Houston’s offense is the best Utah will have seen. Weigman threw for 343 yards against Oklahoma State, and Houston had 505 yards. We think Utah’s start and its home field are the difference. Utah wins.

What it means. Houston already has one league loss, and a second would leave it needing two of the three unbeaten teams to lose twice. A Houston win would put the Cougars level with Utah in the loss column and give them the best win in the Big 12 race so far. For Utah, this is the first chance to beat a team with a winning record, which ESPN says is the biggest hole in its résumé. Winning it would make November 7th against BYU a game between two unbeaten teams for a place in the Big 12 title game.

Texas 27, Ole Miss 20. ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning, the line is Texas by three, and FPI’s ratings make it about seven in Austin. SP+ makes it about six and a half. We rank Ole Miss seven spots ahead of Texas, and the Rebels have the better season. This pick is about one game in Austin, and both models think Texas wins it. Texas’s problem all year has been its offense. It came into Saturday averaging 3.66 yards a carry, 117th in the country, and Florida, the worst defense in the SEC, sacked Arch Manning five times. But the defense is still the strength of the team, fifth in the country in SP+, and Ole Miss’s defense is 42nd and allows 23.8 points a game, the most of the three one-loss teams ESPN grouped together in its projection. That is the matchup Texas’s offense has been waiting for. The worry is Colin Simmons, Texas’s best pass rusher, who left the Florida game with an ankle injury. Ole Miss just ran for 257 yards against Missouri, and without Simmons, Texas will have a harder time keeping Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket. We think Texas wins a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas cannot lose a third game and stay in the playoff conversation. It would be 4-3 and 1-3 in the SEC with Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play, and ESPN already describes Texas as on the brink. A Texas win would give it a third win over a team in our top 11 and put it back in the debate with the other two-loss teams. For Ole Miss, a second loss would let the committee revisit its head-to-head loss to Florida, which ESPN points out could become the tiebreaker between two two-loss teams. A win would put Ole Miss at 6-1 and 4-1 in the league going into Georgia’s visit on November 7th.

That game also matters to the SEC race. Ole Miss is one of four teams with one league loss, and Texas is 1-2. A Texas win would leave three one-loss teams, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky, and would make Kentucky’s trip to Knoxville on November 7th a game for first place.