For the third straight week, a team ranked in the AP’s top two lost to an unranked opponent, which CBS says had not happened since 2007. BYU lost in double overtime at UCF, Texas Tech lost by 13 at Cincinnati and James Madison lost on a walk-off field goal at App State. Three unbeaten teams are left in the FBS: Miami, UCLA and Utah. And on Tuesday, The Athletic reported that Ohio State is preparing to finish the season without its quarterback.

Quick Hits

Texas 34, Ole Miss 27. We had Texas winning and covering, and it nearly gave all of it back. Arch Manning threw a touchdown pass and ran for his first two scores of the season, and Texas led 24-3 at halftime. Ole Miss then scored on a strip-sack recovered in the end zone on the first possession of the third quarter, and Trinidad Chambliss threw two touchdown passes to Horatio Fields to tie it early in the fourth. Raleek Brown, who finished with 157 yards, broke a 47-yard run to set up Manning’s 1-yard keeper for the lead, and Texas added a field goal. Ole Miss still recovered an onside kick, and the game ended on Jelani McDonald’s interception in the end zone. It was the second time this season Texas has had to defend a last-play pass after an onside recovery. Texas was flagged 14 times for 134 yards, both season highs. Kewan Lacy left with the same shoulder injury that kept him out of the Florida game, and Texas receiver Cam Coleman was helped off after landing on his left shoulder. We had the under. The game went over.

UCF 39, BYU 31, in double overtime. We had BYU by ten. Keyone Jenkins threw the winning 2-yard touchdown pass to Grayson Brousseau in the second overtime, and Bear Bachmeier’s fourth-down throw from the UCF 4 fell incomplete. Regulation ended strangely. UCF was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1 with under two minutes left, forced a three-and-out, and got into field-goal range when a sack and fumble was overturned to an incomplete pass and BYU was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. BYU blocked the 47-yard try. UCF’s Will Stone recovered it, and because UCF had kicked on third down it would have had another try, but Stone’s helmet had come off, and the 10-second runoff sent the game to overtime. Jenkins, making his fifth start for the injured Alonza Barnett III, threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns. It was UCF’s first win over a top-five team. BYU had beaten Notre Dame seven days earlier.

Cincinnati 37, Texas Tech 24. Texas Tech’s first loss came in the game nobody had circled. JC French IV threw four touchdown passes and Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards, and Cincinnati ran for 252 yards against a defense that had not allowed a rushing touchdown all season. Texas Tech was flagged 12 times for 75 yards, a season high for a team that averaged 5.4 penalties a game, and turned it over three times, all of which led to points. Will Hammond lost a fumble and threw an interception. Cincinnati fans chanted Brendan Sorsby’s name; Sorsby’s transfer from Cincinnati to Texas Tech fell through after he admitted betting on college football. Joey McGuire said afterward that his team will have to win out, which is what it did a year ago after its first loss. It was Cincinnati’s first home win over a top-ten team since 2006.

Miami 52, Pittsburgh 23. We had Miami by 21 and Pitt covering. Miami won by 29 in its first game as the AP’s No. 1 team in nearly 24 years. Malachi Toney set a school record with 16 catches, for 194 yards and three touchdowns, and Darian Mensah completed 31 of 37 passes for 387 yards and four scores. Miami scored on seven of its first eight possessions and converted ten of its first 12 third downs. Toney had 159 receiving yards at halftime, the same as Pitt’s total offense. One correction to our preview: Pitt did not start Corey Dailey. Holden Geriner, who started against North Carolina in Week 6, got the job back and threw for 268 yards. Pitt has lost three straight and is 5-3.

Utah 21, Houston 13. We had Utah, and we had it by four. Utah was held scoreless in a first half for the first time in two years, and Houston led 13-0 late in the third quarter. Then Devon Dampier took over. He ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns, including a 22-yarder to get Utah on the board, and Wayshawn Parker’s 5-yard run off a direct snap gave the Utes the lead with 11:57 left. Jackson Bennee’s sack forced a Conner Weigman fumble at the Houston 9 with 2:15 left, and Dampier scored on the next play. Weigman completed 4 of 12 passes in the fourth quarter. Utah scored the last 21 points, has won 13 straight, the longest active streak in the country, and is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12. Houston’s two losses are by two at Texas Tech and by eight at Utah.

South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24. Tennessee came from 14 down to lead 24-17, then went for it on fourth-and-1 at the South Carolina 39 with 3:35 left and was stuffed. LaNorris Sellers tied it with 1:17 left by carrying two defenders to the pylon, a touchdown upheld on review. Dylan Stewart then stripped George MacIntyre with 33 seconds left, Tomiway Durojaiye recovered, and Malik Orsan’s 48-yard field goal won it at the gun. Sellers threw for 210 yards and ran for 96. Tennessee had three touchdowns wiped out by penalties, two of them catches by Braylon Staley, and DeSean Bishop’s 130 rushing yards were wasted. It is South Carolina’s second straight win over a ranked team, after the 38-19 win at Florida two weeks ago, and Tennessee has lost a week after its biggest win of the season.

Indiana 13, Michigan 6, in overtime. Neither team scored a touchdown in regulation. Josh Hoover completed 8 of 18 passes for 81 yards, and Curt Cignetti said afterward that the staff discussed going to Grant Wilson in the second half because Hoover was not healthy. Hoover opened overtime with a 21-yard pass to Brock Schott and ran in from the 4 two plays later. Michigan started Tommy Carr over Bryce Underwood, and Carr was sacked four times, two of them leading to missed field goals, one after Michigan had reached the Indiana 1. Michigan reached the Indiana 3 in the final minute of regulation and settled for the tying field goal. In overtime, Carr’s last pass hit the ground short of the end zone. It was Indiana’s first win in Ann Arbor since 1967, and it kept Cignetti from his first two-game losing streak at Indiana.

Wisconsin 24, USC 7. USC ran 25 times for minus-17 yards, and Jayden Maiava, who came in with three interceptions on 224 throws, threw two in the first half. CBS notes the seven points were the fewest of Lincoln Riley’s career. Bryan Jackson, who transferred from USC, scored Wisconsin’s first touchdown, and Colton Joseph found Chris Brooks Jr. for a 16-yard score on fourth-and-2. Wisconsin is 5-2, and its losses are to Notre Dame and UCLA. USC is 6-2 and hosts Ohio State on Saturday.

App State 34, James Madison 31, in overtime. The last unbeaten team in the Group of Six lost on Thursday night. James London kicked four field goals, the last a 40-yarder to win it in overtime, after Morgan Suarez’s 47-yard try for James Madison hit the left upright. App State took its first lead with 6:03 left, on Henry Hasselbeck’s 4-yard touchdown pass after Colton Phares’s interception, and Camden Coleman tied it on a quarterback draw with three seconds left in regulation. CBS reports that James Madison kicked the extra point rather than going for two and the win. Running back George Pettaway left late with an apparent hamstring injury. FPI had given James Madison a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoff a week ago. It now gives the Dukes 7.5.

LSU 38, Auburn 17. Sam Leavitt completed 32 of 45 passes for a career-high 387 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, and LSU led 31-10 at halftime. Jackson Harris caught nine passes for 178 yards, one of them a 70-yard touchdown on a crossing route, and Trey’Dez Green came back from four games out with a knee sprain and caught a touchdown. Leavitt has gone two straight games without a turnover, after giving the ball away regularly through September. LSU blitzed and spied Byrum Brown, who had run for 115 yards against Georgia, and sacked him six times. It ended LSU’s eight-game losing streak on the road in the SEC.

Alabama 31, Texas A&M 20. Alabama trailed 20-17 going into the fourth quarter. Marcel Reed lost a fumble on a fourth-and-1 sneak, Keelon Russell hit Rico Scott for 38 yards, and Russell threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to end Alabama’s two-game losing streak. Russell threw for 311 yards and three scores, and Scott caught six passes for 156. Dijon Lee Jr. returned an interception 39 yards for a touchdown. Alabama did it with a thin secondary. Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. was suspended for violating team rules, Red Morgan was ejected for targeting, and top corner Zabien Brown is out with a leg injury. Ryan Coleman-Williams missed his second straight game with a knee injury. Alabama is off, then goes to LSU.

Ohio State was off, and the news got worse. Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm and shoulder. Ryan Day has not given a timeline, and The Athletic reported on October 20th that Ohio State is planning for the possibility that he misses the rest of the season, including the playoff. A week ago we wrote that Sayin was expected back in weeks, which was what Day had said. That is no longer the working assumption. Freshman Luke Fahey and sophomore Tavien St. Clair split first-team snaps during the off week, and Day has not named a starter for USC.

The rest of the ranked teams, and the ones that matter. UCLA beat Michigan State 28-10 to go to 7-0. Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 34-17 and is 7-1. Minnesota beat Iowa 13-10 on a game-winning field goal, and Illinois beat Oregon 21-10, the Ducks’ third loss before November for the first time since 2018. Boise State was tied 10-10 at Washington State late in the third quarter and won 31-10. New Mexico beat North Dakota State 21-16. Arizona beat Iowa State 39-3, SMU beat Cal 59-20, Northwestern beat Rutgers 42-14 and Oklahoma State beat Colorado 57-24. Oklahoma won 23-15 at Mississippi State, where Kamario Taylor came back from his foot injury and left again in the first quarter. UTSA won 42-19 at Tulane, Toledo beat Western Michigan 45-38, Liberty won 34-6 at Kennesaw State, Memphis beat East Carolina in overtime and Wyoming beat Air Force 28-14. Virginia Tech beat Clemson for the first time since 2007, Kansas beat Baylor 25-24 on a blocked field goal, and NC State fired Dave Doeren after losing at Stanford. Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Florida, Missouri, Wake Forest, Nebraska and Oregon State were off.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Miami	7-0	—
2	Ohio State	6-1	—
3	Georgia	6-1	Up 1
4	BYU	6-1	Down 1
5	Notre Dame	6-1	—
6	Indiana	7-1	Up 1
7	Utah	7-0	Up 1
8	UCLA	7-0	Up 1
9	Texas	5-2	Up 8
10	Texas Tech	6-1	Down 4
11	Tennessee	6-2	—
12	Alabama	6-2	—
13	Kentucky	7-1	—
14	Ole Miss	5-2	Down 4
15	LSU	6-2	Up 3
16	Houston	6-2	Down 2
17	Wake Forest	6-1	Up 2
18	Boise State	6-1	Up 2
19	Missouri	5-2	New
20	Florida	5-2	New

 

Georgia moves up one. The Bulldogs were off, and they move because BYU lost. ESPN’s committee projection makes the same move and argues that the 20-17 win at Alabama is better than anything Indiana or Notre Dame has. Alabama’s win over Texas A&M helped it. The home loss to Auburn looks a little worse after LSU won at Auburn by 21. FPI rates Georgia fourth. Florida is Saturday in Atlanta, and ESPN points out that the head-to-head could decide a tie between two-loss SEC teams in December.

BYU drops one. A double-overtime loss on the road to a 4-3 team, a week after the biggest win in program history, costs a spot and not more. BYU falls behind Georgia, which did not play. It stays ahead of Notre Dame because the two have the same record and BYU beat the Irish eight days ago; ESPN’s committee projection does the same. It stays ahead of Utah, as we said it would, until they play on November 7th. We will say plainly that Saturday tested that promise. BYU lost a game it should have won, and Utah beat a team with a winning record for the first time. But the two have one loss between them, BYU’s is a coin flip on the road, and the game that settles it is two weeks away. FPI has Utah 10th and BYU 15th. Arizona State comes to Provo on Saturday.

Indiana moves up one. It was the ugliest win of the week, and it moves the Hoosiers past a Texas Tech team that lost. Indiana is 7-1, its only loss is by four to Ohio State, and FPI rates it sixth. The problem is the offense. Hoover is hurt, Indiana completed one pass after halftime, and ESPN notes the Hoosiers have been a few plays from losing in three of their last four Big Ten wins. Minnesota, which just beat Iowa, is next.

Utah moves up one. The Utes beat a team with a winning record for the first time, and they did it after trailing 13-0. They pass Texas Tech. They stay behind BYU, for the reason above. ESPN points out the hole that remains: Utah’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any contender by about 60 spots. A trip to Cincinnati, which just beat Texas Tech by 13, comes before BYU.

UCLA moves up one. The Bruins are 7-0 and 5-0 in the Big Ten, alone in first place. Ty Dieffenbach made his second start, and the defense held Michigan State’s offense to ten points. ESPN notes UCLA is in the top five in its Strength of Record metric, with three road wins over power-conference teams, and its win over Wisconsin got better on Saturday. UCLA passes Texas Tech. Nevada comes to the Rose Bowl on Saturday.

Texas moves up eight. That is the biggest rise we have given a team since Florida’s ten in Week 4. Texas has three wins over teams in our Top 14: Ohio State, at Tennessee and now Ole Miss. No other team has more than two. It also has two losses, both at home by three points, to Oklahoma and Florida, and it nearly lost a 21-point lead on Saturday. CBS’s projection of the AP poll, ESPN’s committee projection and CBS’s bowl projection all have Texas tenth. We have it ninth, ahead of Tennessee, for the first time since Texas beat the Vols in Knoxville. A week ago Tennessee was 6-1 and Texas 4-2, and we ranked the better record. Now they are 6-2 and 5-2, and the head-to-head decides it. FPI rates Texas eighth. Mississippi State is next.

Why Ohio State is ahead of Texas. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 in Austin in Week 2, after trailing 23-3. It was a one-point loss on the road. Ohio State is 6-1 and Texas is 5-2, and Ohio State has not lost since. The records are closer than they were a week ago, and Ohio State is now without Sayin. If the Buckeyes lose at USC on Saturday, both teams could have two losses, and Texas would move ahead.

Why Texas is ahead of Florida. Florida won 27-24 in Austin on October 17th, by three points. Both teams are 5-2. The result was close, so our rule allows the override, and the rest of the two résumés is why we use it. Texas has wins over Ohio State, at Tennessee and over Ole Miss, and its two losses are by three points each. Florida has wins at Texas, over Ole Miss and at Auburn, but it also lost by 28 at Missouri and by 19 at home to South Carolina.

Texas Tech drops four. The Red Raiders lost by 13 to a team that was 4-2, with 12 penalties and three turnovers. It would be a bigger drop for a team with more losses. Texas Tech is still 6-1, its only loss is to a 5-2 team, and its best win, over Houston, still holds up. It stays ahead of Tennessee, which lost to a 4-3 team on Saturday too. ESPN’s committee projection has left Texas Tech out of its twelve, and CBS’s bowl projection now sends it to the Pop-Tarts Bowl. FPI rates it 14th. Arizona, also 3-1 in the league, comes to Lubbock on Saturday.

Ole Miss drops four. The Rebels lost by seven on the road to a team ranked ahead of them, and came back from 21 down to do it. That is a good loss as losses go. But Ole Miss now has two, and it falls behind Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky, which have the same number or fewer. Its wins over LSU and Missouri keep it ahead of both. Lacy is hurt again. ESPN’s committee projection has Ole Miss 11th. Auburn comes to Oxford on Saturday, and Georgia comes on November 7th.

Why Ole Miss is ahead of Florida. Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28 in Gainesville. That is a lopsided result, and our rule says we do not override a result like that on records alone. Both teams are now 5-2, so we owe an explanation. Florida also lost 45-17 at Missouri, and Missouri lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. All three teams are 5-2, and each has beaten one of the others by 24 points or more. There is no order of the three that respects all three results, so we have to break one. We keep Ole Miss ahead of Missouri and Missouri ahead of Florida, and override Florida’s win over Ole Miss, because Florida is the one with two lopsided losses. Ole Miss’s other loss is by seven at Texas. Florida’s other loss is by 19 at home to a team that is now 4-3. ESPN noted this week that some committee members might rank Florida ahead of both Texas and Ole Miss. We understand the argument. A loss by 19 at home to South Carolina is why we do not.

LSU moves up three. The Tigers played their best half of the season and won by 21 on the road. They pass Houston, Iowa and USC, which all lost. They stay behind Ole Miss and Kentucky, which beat them. ESPN’s committee projection has LSU 12th, and its analytics give LSU the second-hardest remaining schedule in the country. After the off week, LSU hosts Alabama and Texas and goes to Tennessee.

Houston drops two. The Cougars led 13-0 in Salt Lake City and lost by eight. Both of their losses are close and on the road, to teams ranked ahead of them. But they are 3-2 in the Big 12 with Utah unbeaten, and the league path is mostly gone. Ole Miss and LSU fall in and move past them. Houston is off, then hosts Cincinnati on November 7th.

Wake Forest moves up two. The Demon Deacons were off. They move because Iowa and USC lost and fell out. Wake Forest is 6-1 and 4-1 in the ACC, its only loss is to Miami, and FPI rates it 16th, the second-best team in the league. Virginia is next.

Boise State moves up two. The Broncos were tied with a 1-7 Washington State team going into the fourth quarter and then scored three touchdowns. Dylan Riley ran for 128 yards, 72 of them on one run, and Maddux Madsen is the only quarterback in the country with ten or more touchdown passes and no interceptions. Boise has won six straight and is bowl-eligible for the 29th year in a row. Its only loss was 34-27 at Oregon in Week 1. Oregon is now 4-3 and out of our ranking, and we keep Boise ahead because that was a seven-point road loss and the teams have gone in opposite directions since. Both ESPN and CBS now project Boise as the Group of Six team in the field. Texas State is next.

Missouri returns at 19. The Tigers were off. They return because Iowa and USC lost, and because of the three-way problem above: Missouri beat Florida by 28, and we rank Missouri ahead of the Gators. Missouri’s losses are at Mississippi State, by seven, and by 28 at Ole Miss. Mississippi State has since lost three straight, so the first one has gotten worse. FPI rates Missouri 28th. It goes to Arkansas on Saturday.

Florida enters at 20. The Gators were off. They have the two best wins of any team in the back half of our ranking, at Texas and over Ole Miss, along with the two worst losses. FPI rates them 17th, ahead of Houston, Boise State and Missouri. Georgia is Saturday in Atlanta, and Florida’s remaining schedule after that, Oklahoma, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, is a path to nine wins.

Why the rest held. Miami holds at No. 1 after the best performance of anyone at the top, and FPI gives it a 97.4 percent chance of making the playoff. Ohio State holds at No. 2. We said a week ago that if the Buckeyes lost at USC or to Oregon we would move them then. They were off, and the only team above them won. The Sayin news belongs in their playoff number, which is where we put it. Notre Dame holds at five, behind BYU on the head-to-head, and ESPN notes its opening win over Wisconsin got better on Saturday.

Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky hold at 11, 12 and 13, and that order needs explaining. Tennessee lost to a 4-3 team on a walk-off field goal and would normally drop. But Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville, and Alabama beat Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington. Neither result was close, and none of the three records gives us a reason to override them. So the order holds even though Kentucky is 7-1 and the other two are 6-2. CBS’s poll projection and ESPN’s committee projection both have Kentucky ninth, and this is our biggest disagreement with both. It is also the one most likely to change on the field. Kentucky goes to Tennessee on November 7th.

Iowa and USC leave the ranking. Iowa lost 13-10 at Minnesota and has scored more than 20 points against one Big Ten team. CBS writes that the loss virtually ends the Hawkeyes’ playoff threat. USC lost 24-7 at Wisconsin with minus-17 rushing yards and has Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA still to play. Northwestern is the first team out. It is 6-1, its only loss is by six at Indiana, and FPI rates it 20th. Arizona, SMU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Iowa and USC are the next group.

The outside check

The real post-Week 7 AP poll came out after we published last week, and it differed from the CBS projection we used on our board in a few places. The AP had Miami first and BYU second, where the projection had them the other way around, so our board’s labels for those two were reversed. It had Notre Dame fourth and Georgia fifth, Utah tenth and UCLA ninth, Kentucky 12th and Alabama 13th, and it ranked Arizona at 25 and left Oregon out. Our board used the projection’s rankings, labeled as such.

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 8 AP poll goes Miami, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, BYU, Indiana, UCLA, Utah, Kentucky and Texas. It has Alabama 11th, Texas Tech 12th, Wake Forest 13th, Ole Miss 14th, LSU 15th, Florida 16th, Tennessee 17th, Boise State 18th, Missouri 19th and SMU 20th, with Northwestern, Arizona, Houston, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin rounding out the 25. It projects Iowa and USC out. The real poll was not out at press time.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, BYU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, UCLA, Kentucky, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, with LSU bumped out of the bracket by Boise State. Its byes go to Miami, Ohio State, Georgia and BYU. CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Utah and Ohio State first through fourth, then UCLA, Kentucky, Indiana, BYU, LSU, Texas and Notre Dame, with Boise State 12th. Last week we wrote that none of the three outside projections had Texas in its twelve. This week, both brackets do.

We differ from the outside view in three places. We have Kentucky 13th, where the poll projection and ESPN both have it ninth; the reason is above. We have Texas Tech tenth, where ESPN and CBS’s bowl projection both have it out of the field. And we have BYU ahead of Notre Dame, which ESPN does and the poll projection does not. Our top eight is the same as ESPN’s, in the same order.

FPI’s October 25th run has Ohio State first, then Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Alabama, Indiana, LSU, Texas, Ole Miss and Utah. It is lower than we are on BYU, at 15th, and UCLA, at 31st. It also has Kentucky 24th and Boise State 32nd. As we have said before, FPI rates how good a team is likely to be from here, and we give more weight to the results a team already has. SP+, updated Sunday, has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Notre Dame, LSU, Miami, Indiana, Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech and Utah. Its résumé rating, which compares each margin to what an average top-five team would be expected to do, has Miami first, then Notre Dame, Ohio State, Utah, UCLA, Georgia, Indiana, LSU, Alabama and Northwestern. The biggest disagreements with us are LSU, fourth in SP+ and 15th here; UCLA, 17th in SP+ though fifth in résumé; BYU, 13th in SP+ and 12th in résumé; and Kentucky, 32nd in SP+ and 17th in résumé. Northwestern, our first team out, is 20th in SP+ and tenth in résumé, ahead of BYU, Wake Forest and Texas.

The first College Football Playoff committee ranking comes out Tuesday, November 3rd. ESPN’s projection above is the best guide to what it will look like. Next week we will set our ranking next to the committee’s.

The Playoff Field

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Miami	71	94	Up 23
Georgia	69	84	Up 15
Ohio State	76	76	—
Notre Dame	78	76	Down 2
Indiana	72	74	Up 2
Utah	—	64	New
Texas	62	60	Down 2
Alabama	40	58	Up 18
BYU	40	56	Up 16
UCLA	—	52	New
Kentucky	—	48	New
Texas Tech	64	44	Down 20
LSU	42	40	Down 2
Ole Miss	40	36	Down 4
Tennessee	22	28	Up 6
Wake Forest	—	26	New
Houston	—	14	New
Florida	—	14	New
Missouri	—	6	New
Group of Six	1.00	1.10	Up 0.10
The field	1.34	1.40	Up 0.06

 

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are below.

Texas gains 20 points, to 60, the biggest gain on the board this week. It is the only team with three wins over teams in our top 14, and both bracket projections we track now have it in. FPI gives it 57.4 percent. A week ago we wrote that Texas could not lose a third game and stay in the conversation. It did not lose, and it is back in it. Utah gains 16, to 64, for the first win on its schedule over a team with a winning record, and because it is now the only unbeaten team in the Big 12. LSU also gains 16, to 40, for its best performance of the season, with Alabama and Texas both coming to Baton Rouge. Kentucky gains 14, to 48, and UCLA gains ten, to 52; both are unbeaten or one-loss teams that won while the teams around them lost. Alabama gains eight, to 58, for a win that keeps it ahead of Kentucky in the margin chain and in front of the trip to LSU. Wake Forest gains eight, to 26, without playing, as the second-best team in a league whose champion is guaranteed a spot. Georgia, Notre Dame and Indiana each gain four, and Miami two.

Texas Tech gives back 18 points, to 44. Its best path was always the Big 12 title, and it now has a league loss and a résumé ESPN has left out of the field. Tennessee gives back 16, to 28, for losing to a 4-3 team a week after beating Alabama, with Kentucky and LSU still to come. BYU gives back ten, to 56. The Notre Dame win keeps it in ESPN’s field, but it now likely has to win at Utah to get there. Houston also gives back ten, to 14. Ole Miss gives back eight, to 36, which is light for a loss because it lost to a team ranked ahead of it, on the road, after a comeback.

Ohio State gives back six, to 76, without playing. That is the Sayin news. The Buckeyes are still the second-best team in our ranking and still control their path, but they now go to USC, host Oregon and play Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan with a freshman or a sophomore at quarterback. FPI has not moved them down; it gives Ohio State 90.9 percent. ESPN says the committee will not judge the Buckeyes until it sees them without Sayin, which starts Saturday night.

Florida joins the table at 14 and Missouri at six, both from the field. Iowa, at 24 a week ago, and USC, at 18, fall into the field. The field drops from 1.54 to 1.40. It takes on Iowa and USC at much lower numbers than they had, and it loses value as Oregon, Mississippi State and Pittsburgh all lost again. It now holds Northwestern, Arizona, SMU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Iowa, USC and Oregon. The Group of Six line drops slightly, to 1.10, because the only team that could have pushed a second Group of Six bid into the conversation, an unbeaten James Madison, lost. The next section explains how the line divides.

The 19 teams in the table sum to 9.50. With the Group of Six line and the field, the total is twelve.

The Group of Six Race

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences, and a week ago it had no clear favorite. It has one now. James Madison lost on Thursday, Boise State won on Saturday, and ESPN’s committee projection, CBS’s bowl projection and FPI all now put Boise State in the field.

Team	Record	League	Vs. ranked	FPI	SP+	Résumé SP+	Playoff %
Boise State	6-1	3-0 Pac-12	0-1	32nd	30th	19th	47.6
New Mexico	6-1	3-0 MW	0-1	41st	37th	20th	19.9
UTSA	7-1	4-0 American	0-1	67th	59th	31st	16.0
James Madison	7-1	4-1 Sun Belt	0-0	53rd	29th	23rd	7.5
Oregon State	5-2	3-0 Pac-12	0-2	49th	50th	25th	4.4
Liberty	6-1	3-0 CUSA	0-0	57th	45th	29th	3.1
North Dakota State	6-2	3-2 MW	0-0	71st	42nd	38th	0.1

 

Records against ranked teams count teams ranked when the game was played. FPI ranks are from its October 25th run, and each playoff number is FPI’s estimate of that team’s chance of making the 12-team field. SP+ and résumé SP+ ranks are from Bill Connelly’s October 25th update.

Who is best. FPI’s answer has not changed. It rates Boise State about three and a half points better than New Mexico on a neutral field and about six better than James Madison. A week ago SP+ went the other way, with James Madison 28th, New Mexico 30th and Boise 37th. SP+ now has James Madison 29th and Boise State 30th, both at 10.9, with New Mexico down to 37th. Its résumé rating has Boise first in the group, 19th, just ahead of New Mexico at 20th. Boise also has the best results in the group: its only loss is by seven at Oregon, and it has won six straight, including at Fresno State and by 25 over Western Michigan.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise State, and it is no longer close. FPI gives the Broncos a 47.6 percent chance of making the playoff, more than twice anyone else in the group. The case is the schedule as much as the team. Boise has the best win available to it still ahead, Oregon State on the blue turf on November 14th, and a Pac-12 title would come with a résumé no other Group of Six champion can match. The one thing that could change it is that game. Oregon State is also 3-0 in the league.

Who else. New Mexico is 6-1 and alone in first in the Mountain West at 3-0 after beating North Dakota State, and FPI gives it a 69.8 percent chance of winning the league. Its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma. UTSA is 7-1, 4-0 in the American and has won five straight, and FPI gives it a 16.0 percent chance of making the playoff, the third-best in the group, almost entirely on its record. Its only loss is to Texas. James Madison is 7-1 and still leads the Sun Belt East at 4-1, but it has not played a ranked team, and now it does not have an unbeaten record to stand on. Liberty is 6-1 and level with Jacksonville State at 3-0 in Conference USA.

We now put Boise State’s share of our 1.10 at about 0.55, roughly half. New Mexico is about 0.20, UTSA about 0.12, James Madison and Oregon State about 0.08 each, and the rest about 0.07. A week ago it was about 0.40 for James Madison and 0.36 for Boise. This week Texas State goes to Boise on Saturday night, Oregon State plays at Fresno State, New Mexico goes to San José State, and James Madison hosts Troy on Thursday. UTSA is off.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 75 (up 2), Wake Forest 11, SMU 7 (up 1), Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 1 (down 1), Duke 1, field 1 (down 2). Miami is 5-0 in the league and gets North Carolina on Saturday. SMU is 4-1 after a 39-point win over Cal. Pitt has lost three straight. The field shrinks because North Carolina lost at home to Syracuse and Clemson lost to Virginia Tech. Wake Forest was off. FPI has Miami at 82.1 percent, Wake Forest at 10.4 and SMU at 5.9.

SEC. Georgia 40, Kentucky 15 (up 5), Alabama 12 (up 3), Ole Miss 8 (down 5), LSU 7 (up 2), Texas 6 (up 2), Tennessee 5 (down 7), Florida 2, Missouri 2, field 3. Kentucky is 5-1 in the league and Georgia 4-1, and those are the only two teams with one league loss. Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Florida all have two. Kentucky’s number trails Georgia’s by this much because Kentucky still goes to Tennessee and Missouri and hosts Florida, and because Alabama holds the tiebreaker over it. Tennessee loses the most because it lost to a 4-3 team and still has Kentucky and LSU to play. FPI has Georgia at 46.6 percent, Alabama at 15.9, LSU at 9.9, Texas at 7.3 and Kentucky at 6.9.

Big Ten. Ohio State 44 (down 6), Indiana 26 (up 4), UCLA 16 (up 4), Wisconsin 3 (up 2), Northwestern 2 (new), Iowa 2 (down 3), Oregon 1 (down 3), USC 1 (down 2), Nebraska 1, field 4 (up 2). Ohio State is 4-0 and still holds the tiebreaker over Indiana, but it loses six points for the same reason it loses them in the playoff table. UCLA is 5-0, the only unbeaten team in the league, and its schedule does not include Ohio State or Indiana. Northwestern comes out of the field at 3-1. The field grows because Minnesota beat Iowa and Illinois beat Oregon. FPI has Ohio State at 59.1 percent, Indiana at 32.2 and UCLA at 5.1.

Big 12. Utah 40 (up 13), BYU 23 (down 4), Texas Tech 20 (down 11), Arizona 6 (up 4), Houston 4 (down 4), Oklahoma State 3 (up 2), Baylor 1 (down 1), field 3 (up 1). Utah is 4-0 and alone in first. BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona and Oklahoma State are all 3-1. Texas Tech loses more than BYU because BYU still controls a path through Salt Lake City and Texas Tech, which plays neither BYU nor Utah, now needs help. Arizona goes to Lubbock on Saturday. Cincinnati, in the field, gets Utah on Saturday and Houston after that. FPI has Utah at 34.7 percent, BYU at 22.0, Texas Tech at 17.6 and Arizona at 10.2.

Pac-12. Boise State 68 (up 4), Oregon State 20, Fresno State 4 (down 3), Texas State 4 (up 2), Washington State 1 (down 3), San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. Boise State and Oregon State are both 3-0, and Oregon State was off. Fresno State has lost two straight. Washington State is 0-4. FPI has Boise State at 64.5 percent and Oregon State at 29.5.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for an eighth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. FPI’s October 25th run has ten SEC teams in its top 25, six from the Big Ten, five from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, plus Notre Dame. That is one fewer Big Ten team than a week ago, after Iowa and USC lost. SP+’s top 25 has eight Big Ten teams, seven from the SEC, six from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, plus Notre Dame. Kentucky, 32nd, is not in it.

The SEC has two teams with one league loss and five with two. Kentucky is 5-1 and Georgia 4-1. Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Florida all have two, and Texas and Missouri are 2-2. ESPN’s committee projection has five SEC teams in its twelve and none in its top two. Saturday reshuffled the middle again: Texas beat Ole Miss, South Carolina beat Tennessee for its second straight win over a ranked team, and LSU and Alabama both won after losing streaks. Texas A&M is 1-4 in the league a year after reaching the playoff. Georgia and Florida meet in Atlanta on Saturday. Alabama, LSU, Kentucky and Tennessee are all off, and they play each other in some combination on November 7th.

The Big Ten has one unbeaten team, UCLA, and Ohio State is 4-0 behind it. Indiana is 4-1. Northwestern, Minnesota and Wisconsin are all 3-1, and Minnesota now has wins over Iowa and Michigan in the same season for the first time since 2014. Wisconsin beat USC and has a path to the title game that runs through Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota. Oregon, a preseason No. 2 team, is 4-3 after losing 21-10 at Illinois, and CBS calls its season a failure. Michigan is 1-3 in the league, Penn State 0-4 and Michigan State 0-5. Ohio State plays at USC on Saturday night.

The Big 12 went from three unbeaten teams to one. Utah is 4-0, and BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona and Oklahoma State are all 3-1. CBS’s view is that the league wasted its chance at three playoff teams in one afternoon, and ESPN says the runner-up’s case is now harder to make. Cincinnati, 5-2, beat Texas Tech and gets Utah and Houston next, and CBS calls it the league’s agent of chaos. Arizona has won five straight and goes to Texas Tech. Baylor’s loss to Kansas ended a 14-game winning streak in the series, and CBS writes that Dave Aranda’s tenure is over in all but name.

The ACC has Miami and then a three-way race for the other spot in the title game. Miami is 5-0, and SMU and Wake Forest are 4-1 and play each other in November. Virginia Tech is 3-2 after beating Clemson for the first time since 2007, and CBS notes James Franklin has the Hokies bowl-eligible in his first season. NC State fired Dave Doeren after losing at Stanford, which is 4-4. North Carolina lost at home to Syracuse, Duke won 19-16 at Virginia on a trick-play touchdown pass with 1:14 left, and Pitt has lost three straight. Florida State is 1-3 in the league and hosts Clemson on Saturday.

The Pac-12 is still the best of the group. Its average team rates higher in FPI than any league below it, at about 2.6 points below average to the American’s 6.1. Its median team is now essentially tied with the American’s, about four points below average in each. FPI has Boise State 32nd and Oregon State 49th, and no other league in the group has two teams in the top 50. Three of its eight teams are now below 100th, up from two. Boise State and Oregon State are both 3-0 and meet on November 14th. SP+ differs on one point: it also has two Mountain West teams in its top 50, New Mexico 37th and North Dakota State 42nd, to go with Boise State 30th and Oregon State 50th. It puts four Pac-12 teams below 100th.

The American has UTSA at 4-0 and North Texas at 3-0, with Army 4-1 and Memphis 3-1. UTSA is 7-1 after winning at Tulane, and FPI gives it a 16.0 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the league by a wide margin. FPI still makes North Texas a slight favorite to win the league, at 35.0 percent to UTSA’s 32.7. Memphis needed overtime to beat East Carolina on Thursday. The league still has no team in FPI’s top 50, and five of its 14 teams are below 100th. UTSA is off this week.

The Mountain West has New Mexico alone at 3-0 after its 21-16 win over North Dakota State, and FPI gives the Lobos a 69.8 percent chance of winning the league. Wyoming is 4-1 after beating Air Force 28-14, which ended Air Force’s four-game winning streak. North Dakota State and Air Force are both 3-2. New Mexico is 41st in FPI and the next team in the league is North Dakota State at 71st. Half of the league’s ten teams are below 100th. New Mexico goes to San José State on Saturday.

The Sun Belt lost its playoff candidate on Thursday night. James Madison still leads the East at 4-1, and FPI gives it an 84.9 percent chance of winning the division, but its playoff chance fell from 44.3 percent to 7.5. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 3-0. The next Sun Belt team in FPI after James Madison is Louisiana Tech, at 77th, and six of the league’s 14 teams are below 100th. App State, which beat James Madison, is 2-1 and goes to Georgia Southern. James Madison hosts Troy on Thursday.

The MAC is still last by a wide margin. Ohio is alone at 4-0, with Toledo, Western Michigan, Buffalo and Miami (Ohio) all 3-1 behind it. Toledo beat Western Michigan 45-38, and FPI now rates Toledo the best team in the league, at 79th, and makes it a slight favorite to win the league over Western Michigan, 35.4 percent to 35.1. Ten of the 13 teams are below 100th in FPI, and no MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 9 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
No. 3 Notre Dame vs. Navy (Foxborough)	Sat 12:00 ABC	ND -30.5	98.7%	52.5
No. 22 Arizona at No. 12 Texas Tech	Sat 12:00 ESPN	TTU -4.5	67.1%	55.5
Auburn at No. 14 Ole Miss	Sat 12:45 SECN	MISS -11.5	74.9%	55.5
No. 16 Florida vs. No. 4 Georgia (Atlanta)	Sat 3:30 ABC	UGA -10.5	82.1%	56.5
No. 2 Ohio State at USC	Sat 7:30 NBC	OSU -7	82.8%	52.5
No. 1 Miami at North Carolina	Sat 7:30 ABC	MIA -16.5	89.8%	50.5

 

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 31st. Kickoff times and sites are from CBS’s schedule. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, and percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. Notre Dame and Navy play at Gillette Stadium, with Navy as the designated home team, and Florida and Georgia play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 8 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. The market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in all six games. The biggest gap in degree is in Los Angeles, where ESPN gives Ohio State an 82.8 percent chance of winning a game the market makes a seven-point spread. A seven-point favorite usually wins about seven times in ten. That gap is most likely the market pricing Sayin’s absence more heavily than the model does. SP+ has the same favorite in all six. Its ratings make Notre Dame about 27 points better on a neutral field, Texas Tech about five at home, Ole Miss about 11, Georgia about 16 and a half, Ohio State about 12 and Miami about 18 and a half. It is below the line only on Notre Dame and Ole Miss, and like FPI, it rates Ohio State well above seven, from ratings built almost entirely on games Sayin started.

Predictions

Notre Dame 42, Navy 10. ESPN gives Notre Dame a 98.7 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 34 points on a neutral field. SP+ makes it about 27. The line is 30.5. Navy is 2-5 and has lost two straight, and Notre Dame’s defense allows 13.4 points a game, which ESPN calls by far the best of the one-loss teams it compared. The worry with a number this big is the clock: Navy runs it, and a game with fewer possessions is harder to win by five touchdowns. Notre Dame has also not played since losing at BYU. We think Notre Dame wins easily and just gets there. Notre Dame wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Notre Dame has no conference title game, so its margin for error is Miami on November 7th and SMU on November 21st. Losing this game would end any argument for a bye and probably for the field. CBS’s bowl projection already has the Irish as the last team in. Winning it changes nothing, which is the point.

Texas Tech 28, Arizona 24. ESPN gives Texas Tech a 67.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about six points in Lubbock. SP+ makes it about five. The line is 4.5. These are two teams going opposite ways. Arizona has won five straight, Noah Fifita has thrown for at least 275 yards and two touchdowns in five straight games, and the defense held Iowa State to 1.7 yards a carry. Its only loss is in overtime at BYU. Texas Tech just gave up 252 rushing yards at Cincinnati, committed 12 penalties and turned it over three times. We expect Texas Tech to win at home, because the Red Raiders were 18-2 since the start of last season before Saturday and their defense is still the best Arizona will have seen. Both models have Texas Tech covering, SP+ by less than a point. We do not think it is by more than four. Texas Tech wins, Arizona covers. Under.

What it means. Both teams are 3-1 in the Big 12, a game behind Utah. The loser has two league losses with Utah, BYU and Oklahoma State all ahead of it, and for Texas Tech that would end the title-game path and the playoff with it. McGuire said after the loss that his team has to win out. A Texas Tech win keeps that possible, with Oklahoma State in Stillwater on November 14th the next hard game. An Arizona win would make the Wildcats the most likely Big 12 team to face Utah or BYU in Arlington, and would put a third team in the conversation for a second bid.

Ole Miss 34, Auburn 23. ESPN gives Ole Miss a 74.9 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about nine points in Oxford. SP+ makes it about 11. The line is 11.5, so the market is more confident than both of these. Auburn beat Georgia two weeks ago and then lost by 21 at LSU, where Byrum Brown was sacked six times and the Tigers never got their running game started. Ole Miss has a defense ESPN describes as the weak point of the team, with 70 missed tackles this season, and it played without Kewan Lacy for most of Saturday. Chambliss brought Ole Miss back from 21 down in Austin. We think he is enough at home, and that Auburn scores enough to stay inside the number. Ole Miss wins, Auburn covers. Over.

What it means. Ole Miss is 3-2 in the SEC, and a third loss would end its playoff case. ESPN calls the November 7th game against Georgia the Rebels’ last chance at a ranked opponent, and a loss before it would leave them needing to win that one. For Auburn, this is the fourth ranked opponent in a row, and a loss would drop it to 4-4.

Georgia 31, Florida 20. ESPN gives Georgia an 82.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 12 points on a neutral field. SP+ makes it about 16 and a half. The line is 10.5. Georgia has had two weeks to recover from the Auburn loss, and Gunner Stockton, KJ Bolden and Nate Frazier all had two weeks to heal. Florida has had the same two weeks. It is the only team to have beaten both Texas and Ole Miss, and the defense that was last in the SEC when it went to Austin sacked Arch Manning five times. The thing to watch during the week is Florida’s quarterback. Aaron Philo was hurt against Texas, and Tramell Jones Jr. won that game in relief. Georgia scored 20 at Alabama and 24 at home against Auburn, its last two games. We think Georgia’s defense keeps Florida from making this a shootout, and that Georgia is the better team by more than ten. Georgia wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Georgia is 4-1 in the SEC and Kentucky is 5-1. A Georgia win keeps them the only two one-loss teams in the league, ahead of the November 7th trip to Ole Miss. A loss would give Georgia two league losses, put it in the pile with Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Florida, and leave Kentucky alone in first. ESPN points out that the head-to-head here could be what separates two-loss teams in the committee’s meeting room. In the playoff, Georgia can absorb a loss more easily than most, because of the Alabama win. It would still cost it a bye.

Florida has already beaten two teams that were in the top ten when it played them. A win would give the Gators wins over Texas, Ole Miss and Georgia, the best three-win set in the country, with Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State left. They would move into our playoff table well above 14. A loss leaves them at 5-3 with their best case already made.

Ohio State 23, USC 17. ESPN gives Ohio State an 82.8 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 13 points in Los Angeles. SP+ makes it about 12. The line is seven. Both models have Ohio State covering, but both are built almost entirely on games Sayin started. Ohio State has not named a starter, and its freshman, Luke Fahey, has thrown two meaningful passes this season, both incomplete at Indiana. What Ohio State has is a defense allowing 13.4 points a game, fifth in the country according to SB Nation’s Land-Grant Holy Land, against a USC offense that just ran for minus-17 yards and turned it over twice in the first half. USC’s scoring defense ranks 80th, which is the opening for whoever starts. We think the Buckeyes win the way they won at Iowa and Indiana, with defense and Jeremiah Smith. We do not think a young quarterback on the road at night wins by more than a touchdown. Ohio State wins, USC covers. Under.

What it means. This is the first time the committee sees Ohio State without Sayin, and it comes three days before the first ranking. A win, by any margin, keeps the Buckeyes 5-0 in the league with Oregon coming to Columbus. We said a week ago that if Ohio State lost one of these two games, we would move it then, and we will. A loss would also drop the Buckeyes into a tie with Indiana in the loss column, though they hold the tiebreaker, and would leave UCLA alone in first. For USC, already out of our ranking, a third loss would end its playoff hopes two weeks before it goes to Indiana.

Miami 38, North Carolina 17. ESPN gives Miami an 89.8 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 18 points in Chapel Hill. SP+ makes it about 18 and a half. The line is 16.5. North Carolina is 4-3 and lost at home to Syracuse on Saturday, and CBS writes that it is fighting for bowl eligibility. Billy Edwards Jr. has played well at home this year, and Bill Belichick has won as a road underdog more than once. But Miami has scored at least 41 points in five games, Mensah and Toney are the best quarterback-receiver pair in the country, and North Carolina has not shown it can stop either. We think Miami wins comfortably and scores enough to get the game over the total. Miami wins and covers. Over.

What it means. Miami’s playoff spot does not depend on this game. ESPN’s point is that the Hurricanes would get in as ACC champions even if they lose at Notre Dame. What this game decides is whether Miami goes to South Bend unbeaten. A loss would put Miami in the loss column with SMU and Wake Forest, and it would make the November 7th game a playoff elimination game for both teams instead of a seeding game. That is two straight road games for Miami, and ESPN expects Notre Dame to be the last ranked team the Hurricanes see before the ACC title game.

That is six favorites straight up, three favorites and three underdogs against the number, and four unders.