2026 NFL: Previewing Week 6

Week 5 in Brief

The 49ers are 5-0 after winning in Seattle, and no NFC East team won a game. Washington and the Giants tied 27-27 when the Commanders ran out the clock in field-goal range. The Eagles lost in London on a 57-yard kick after a kickoff Nick Sirianni said he should not have allowed. Dallas lost at home to a one-win team quarterbacked by an undrafted rookie.

The Vikings are also 5-0, and still seventh in DVOA. The Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are 0-5.

Two changes start this week. The line lists are now weekly and judged against what each opponent usually allows. The win totals now republish every week.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 5 Recap

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -8.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Jalon Daniels’ second start, on a short week, against DVOA’s last-ranked defense, with Tyler Smith eligible to return.

What decided it: The matchup we named, but on the ground. Tampa Bay ran 39 times for 241 yards, 165 of them from Bucky Irving, whose 72-yard run on the first play of the second half set up the go-ahead touchdown. Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with no turnovers. Dallas gave the ball away three times: two Dak Prescott interceptions and a KaVontae Turpin fumble on a kickoff. Joey Porter Jr. was a late scratch.

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -6.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks against a defense third in DVOA with a nine-game interception streak, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson’s statuses to settle.

What decided it: A kickoff. Jake Elliott put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 from 48 yards with eight seconds left. The Eagles kicked a returnable ball, Ameer Abdullah brought it back 53 yards with a second left, and Cam Little made a 57-yarder as time expired. Sirianni said afterward that the decision cost his team the game.

Barkley and Smith were out, Johnson had retired, center Cam Jurgens had been traded and Drew Kendall was hurt. The Eagles ran 18 times for 22 yards. Jacksonville kept them close by going 0 for 3 in the red zone, missing an extra point with a backup long snapper and taking 13 penalties for 100 yards. The interception streak ended at nine games.

Bengals 31, Dolphins 24

Box score · Line: Bengals -7, 42.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Ja’Marr Chase cleared the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins was available, and Miami’s pass rush after its first four sacks.

What decided it: Chase cleared and caught six passes for 77 yards, including a one-handed 45-yard touchdown. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes, and Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back second-quarter drives. Miami ran 34 times for 217 yards, but it did not sack Burrow.

Packers 31, Bears 7

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 45.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense without Edgerrin Cooper, and whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real.

What decided it: The protection was real, and the run game wasn’t there. Without Kyle Monangai, Chicago ran 24 times for 81 yards. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards, with Christian Watson catching 143 yards and two touchdowns and Matthew Golden adding 123. The Bears turned the ball over five times, including on four straight second-half possessions.

Jets 17, Browns 12

Box score · Line: Jets -2.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays a week earlier, and Mason Graham’s knee.

What decided it: The pressure, from the other side. The Jets sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, three by rookie David Bailey, and Graham was inactive. With Cleveland up 12-10, a high snap went through punter Corey Bojorquez’s hands in the rain. Braelon Allen scored from 22 yards three plays later, and Will McDonald’s strip-sack on fourth down ended it.

Texans 26, Titans 3

Box score · Line: Texans -6.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: Houston’s secondary after two blown two-score leads, and Tennessee’s three straight close losses.

What decided it: Neither; it was never close. In DeMeco Ryans’ first game back calling the defense, Houston held Tennessee to 187 yards. Will Anderson Jr. had three of the four sacks, and two early turnovers became field goals. C.J. Stroud threw for 261 yards and a touchdown and ran for another.

Steelers 34, Colts 22

Box score · Line: Steelers -2.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, and Pittsburgh’s rest against the Colts’ trip back from London.

What decided it: Jaylen Warren. Jones did not turn the ball over, but Warren had 188 total yards, including an 80-yard catch-and-run and a 50-yard touchdown run. Harmon and Dean were both out, and the Colts still ran 24 times for 66 yards. Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals as Indianapolis stalled in Pittsburgh territory.

Patriots 45, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: The top pass-blocking line against the seventh-ranked pass rush, the Raiders’ run game with Ashton Jeanty’s ankle, and an early kickoff in the east.

What decided it: New England’s protection, not Las Vegas’. Drake Maye was sacked once and went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for a fifth. The Patriots gained 536 yards. The Raiders ran 18 times for 38 yards, and Fernando Mendoza made his debut in the fourth quarter.

Vikings 23, Saints 13

Box score · Line: Vikings -1.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: DVOA’s 31st offense against its 31st defense, Justin Jefferson’s ankle, and the Saints’ run defense.

What decided it: Minnesota’s defense, which held New Orleans to 142 yards. Jefferson returned and caught a 15-yard touchdown after the Saints fumbled the second-half kickoff. The Vikings ran 36 times for 153 yards, and Will Reichard made all three of his field goals from 40 yards or more.

Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT)

Box score · Line: Commanders -3.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: Washington’s quarterback, with Jayden Daniels’ return unconfirmed, Marcus Mariota hurt and Athan Kaliakmanis next.

What decided it: Nothing did, though both teams had it won. Daniels returned in an elbow brace, ran for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns, and put Washington up 27-13 in the fourth quarter. Jameis Winston answered with two 17-yard touchdown passes, the second to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. In overtime Cam Skattebo fumbled in field-goal range. Daniels then went down at the Giants’ 24 with 12 seconds left and no timeouts, and the clock ran out before Washington could spike it. Dominic Zvada made two of five field goals for New York.

Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Box score · Line: Broncos -3.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: A Chargers line 30th in pass block, possibly without Joe Alt, against Denver’s front, and Denver’s injured cornerbacks.

What decided it: The matchup we named. Alt and Rashawn Slater were out, four rookies started on the line, and Justin Herbert was sacked five times. Jim Harbaugh’s failed fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter led to the tying touchdown. Zach Allen’s strip-sack then set up Wil Lutz’s go-ahead field goal. Denver won without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, in Sean Payton’s first game back calling plays.

Lions 45, Cardinals 21

Box score · Line: Lions -4.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett after three interceptions.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, which held an opponent under 30 points for the first time this season. After Arizona’s opening touchdown the Lions had five sacks and held the Cardinals to 18 carries for 56 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. was inactive ahead of his trade to Houston.

49ers 32, Seahawks 29

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 47.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: The line that had not allowed a sack against the pass rush that is first in win rate.

What decided it: San Francisco’s defense, more than its line. The streak ended, with Brock Purdy sacked three times. But the 49ers sacked Sam Darnold five times without Nick Bosa. Renardo Green intercepted him twice, and Gracen Halton returned a fumble for a touchdown at the end of the first half. Purdy led two fourth-quarter scoring drives, Mike Evans caught 113 yards, and Eddy Pineiro won it from 43 yards with 1:56 left.

Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)

Box score · Line: Falcons -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Falcons

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Baltimore’s fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and Baltimore won by running the ball. Behind Tyler Huntley, the Ravens ran 35 times for 208 yards against the league’s best run defense, with Derrick Henry gaining 102 and Justice Hill 73 on four carries. Down 23-15 with 2:31 left, Huntley drove them to a touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Henry ran in the two-point try. Huntley scored from the 1 in overtime, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, in for the injured Michael Penix Jr.

Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT, Monday)

Box score · Line: Rams -2.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Two top-five quarterbacks who had been loose with the ball, Buffalo’s 26th-ranked defense without Ed Oliver, and Aaron Donald’s possible return.

What decided it: Special teams. Donald played and recovered James Cook’s fumble early in overtime, but Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’ field goal. Josh Allen then scrambled for 19 and 13 yards, and Tyler Bass won it from 45 with 1:55 left. Allen ran for 121 of his 331 total yards, and Buffalo rushed for 234. Sean McVay said the kicking units cost the Rams the game.

Power Rankings

The Jaguars move ahead of the Seahawks, as we said they might after San Francisco at Seattle and the London game. From this week our offensive and defensive line rankings are a factor here: they move the Lions, Falcons and Texans up and the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys down. The biggest moves are the Packers (up 8), Patriots and Steelers (up 7) and Raiders (down 8).

BSL	Team	Rec	Pre	DVOA	ESPN	USA Today	Prisco
1	49ers	5-0	14	1	1	1	1
2	Chiefs	4-0	11	4	2	2	2
3	Jaguars	4-1	17	2	5	5	4
4	Bills	4-1	3	3	3	7	5
5	Seahawks	3-2	2	8	4	3	7
6	Ravens	4-1	5	6	7	13	6
7	Vikings	5-0	19	7	6	9	3
8	Rams	2-3	1	10	8	8	10
9	Patriots	3-2	10	13	9	6	11
10	Lions	3-2	9	15	11	12	12
11	Broncos	3-2	6	16	10	4	8
12	Bengals	3-2	12	5	12	18	9
13	Bears	3-2	16	19	13	10	15
14	Steelers	3-2	20	14	20	17	13
15	Falcons	2-3	26	18	22	14	22
16	Panthers	2-2	23	9	18	11	20
17	Packers	3-2	13	17	14	19	14
18	Cowboys	2-3	15	20	15	24	17
19	Raiders	3-2	29	25	17	15	18
20	Texans	1-4	7	11	21	26	23
21	Giants	3-1-1	24	27	19	22	16
22	Eagles	2-3	4	23	16	27	21
23	Browns	3-2	31	26	23	16	19
24	Colts	2-3	22	21	24	25	24
25	Buccaneers	1-4	18	12	27	23	29
26	Jets	2-3	28	22	25	21	25
27	Saints	1-4	21	30	26	20	26
28	Commanders	1-3-1	25	28	28	28	28
29	Cardinals	1-4	30	24	29	29	27
30	Chargers	0-5	8	29	30	30	30
31	Titans	0-5	27	31	31	32	31
32	Dolphins	0-5	32	32	32	31	32

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 5. Outside rankings: ESPN, Nate Davis, USA Today and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports. USA Today stands in for NFL.com, whose rankings were not up at build time.

1. 49ers (1). Five sacks, a defensive touchdown and two interceptions won in Seattle without Nick Bosa. DVOA has them first by 22 points.
2. Chiefs (2). Bye. The winless Chargers come to Kansas City; the offensive line is third in our rankings, the defensive line 28th.
3. Jaguars (4). Up one, past Seattle, as flagged last week. DVOA has had them second for two weeks, though London was sloppy: 0 for 3 in the red zone and 13 penalties.
4. Bills (5). Won a shootout with the Rams in overtime without DJ Moore or Ed Oliver. Josh Allen ran for 121 yards, behind our top-ranked offensive line.
5. Seahawks (3). Down two after losing at home to the 49ers, with two Sam Darnold interceptions and more running-back fumbles. Still our top defensive line.
6. Ravens (6). Held. Won in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley and a 208-yard run game, and lead the AFC North alone.
7. Vikings (9). Up two at 5-0. The defense allows the fewest points in the league; DVOA still has them only seventh.
8. Rams (7). Down one. A 2-3 team that DVOA has 10th, beaten in overtime by its kicking game: Harrison Mevis has missed three field goals.
9. Patriots (16). Up seven. Drake Maye has eight touchdowns and two turnovers in two weeks, after one touchdown and seven turnovers in his first three games (CBS Sports).
10. Lions (14). Up four. Both lines rank in our top 10, the defense held an opponent under 30 for the first time, and Jared Goff has 13 touchdowns and no turnovers (USA Today).
11. Broncos (10). Down one, only because Detroit passes them. Five sacks and three takeaways won in Los Angeles.
12. Bengals (13). Up one. Fifth in DVOA, but they let Miami run for 217 yards before the bye.
13. Bears (8). Down five after five turnovers in Green Bay. Caleb Williams is back at practice.
14. Steelers (21). Up seven. Jaylen Warren has carried the offense since Rico Dowdle’s injury, behind a line that entered our top 8.
15. Falcons (18). Up three. Lost in overtime, but both lines rank in our top 10. Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs decide the next few weeks.
16. Panthers (15). Down one. Ninth in DVOA and atop the NFC South, but their defensive line ranks 30th.
17. Packers (25). Up eight. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards, but both lines rank in the bottom six, and Javon Hargrave’s Achilles is the second season-ending injury in the front seven in two weeks.
18. Cowboys (12). Down six after losing at home to Tampa Bay. Their defensive line ranks last, and the defense has five sacks and no interceptions this season.
19. Raiders (11). Down eight. Two straight losses since a 3-0 start, and 25th in DVOA.
20. Texans (23). Up three. Eleventh in DVOA at 1-4, with our third-ranked defensive line, and they added Marvin Harrison Jr.
21. Giants (20). Down one. They lead the NFC East at 3-1-1, but DVOA has them 27th.
22. Eagles (17). Down five after three straight losses. Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded in the same week.
23. Browns (19). Down four. Eight sacks allowed to the Jets, and they have been outscored over a 3-2 start.
24. Colts (22). Down two. They lead the league in field-goal attempts because drives stall.
25. Buccaneers (29). Up four. Jalon Daniels’ first win, and 12th in DVOA.
26. Jets (26). Held. Eight sacks, three by rookie David Bailey.
27. Saints (24). Down three after a third straight home loss and 142 total yards.
28. Commanders (27). Down one. A tie that felt like a loss.
29. Cardinals (28). Down one. They have allowed 30 or more in four straight games and traded Harrison.
30. Chargers (30). Held. Thirteen turnovers, most in the league, and four rookies on the line.
31. Titans (31). Held. Three points and 187 yards against Houston.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Willis threw two interceptions to a safety who said he had read his tell.

Offensive Lines

The Bills move to No. 1, the Chiefs and Bears climb, the Steelers enter, and the Raiders drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate allowed (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Status
1 (2)	Bills	59% (2)	77% (2)	6.8% (-0.6)	5.4 (+1.4)	Up 1
2 (1)	49ers	56% (5)	76% (4)	2.1% (-4.1)	4.6 (+0.4)	Down 1
3 (6)	Chiefs	52% (13)	76% (3)	4.5% (-1.3)	5.5 (+0.9)	Up 3
4 (4)	Rams	54% (6)	75% (7)	3.1% (-2.2)	4.6 (+0.3)	Held
5 (7)	Bears	56% (4)	74% (11)	6.0% (-1.2)	4.7 (+0.4)	Up 2
6 (8)	Bengals	46% (24)	77% (1)	4.5% (-1.0)	3.6 (+0.2)	Up 2
7 (–)	Steelers	53% (8)	74% (9)	7.0% (+0.1)	4.7 (+0.2)	New
8 (5)	Lions	58% (3)	72% (22)	5.4% (-1.3)	4.4 (-0.2)	Down 3

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 5, rank in parentheses. Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: the best run game against expectation in the league, and second in both win rates, against a schedule of pass rushes tougher than average. Spencer Brown, 91% in pass block win rate, hurt his back Monday.
• 49ers: three sacks allowed all season, all of them in Seattle. The run game is above average rather than dominant, which is the gap to Buffalo.
• Chiefs: third in run block win rate and 5.5 yards a carry, with four games played.
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate against one of the tougher pass-rush schedules. The four sacks at Green Bay came with backup quarterbacks.
• Steelers: in on balance, eighth and ninth in the win rates, after allowing five sacks in Cleveland in Week 4.
• Lions: third in pass block, but 22nd in run block and slightly below expectation on the ground.
• Out: Raiders. First in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry is a full yard below what their opponents allow, against the easiest pass rushes anyone has faced.
• First out: Patriots (seventh on the numbers; left tackle Will Campbell’s knee injury keeps them out), Falcons, Raiders.
• Charting against results: Ravens (13th; 208 rushing yards in Atlanta, but 7.4% sack rate) and Packers (last in pass block win rate, yet a sack rate better than their opponents allow).
• Watch in Week 6: Brown’s back at Las Vegas; Campbell’s status against the Jets’ eight-sack front; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center for Baltimore.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Rank	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate allowed (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)
1	Bills	59% (2)	77% (2)	6.8% (-0.6)	5.4 (+1.4)
2	49ers	56% (5)	76% (4)	2.1% (-4.1)	4.6 (+0.4)
3	Chiefs	52% (13)	76% (3)	4.5% (-1.3)	5.5 (+0.9)
4	Rams	54% (6)	75% (7)	3.1% (-2.2)	4.6 (+0.3)
5	Bears	56% (4)	74% (11)	6.0% (-1.2)	4.7 (+0.4)
6	Bengals	46% (24)	77% (1)	4.5% (-1.0)	3.6 (+0.2)
7	Patriots	52% (12)	74% (12)	6.5% (-0.1)	4.2 (+0.3)
8	Steelers	53% (8)	74% (9)	7.0% (+0.1)	4.7 (+0.2)
9	Lions	58% (3)	72% (22)	5.4% (-1.3)	4.4 (-0.2)
10	Falcons	53% (9)	73% (17)	7.6% (+1.3)	5.1 (+0.6)
11	Raiders	62% (1)	74% (13)	4.3% (-0.8)	3.0 (-1.0)
12	Broncos	47% (23)	73% (19)	3.6% (-1.8)	3.6 (-0.1)
13	Ravens	48% (21)	74% (8)	7.4% (+2.1)	5.1 (+0.6)
14	Colts	49% (19)	73% (18)	4.9% (-0.8)	3.7 (-0.1)
15	Buccaneers	50% (17)	74% (10)	10.1% (+2.3)	4.9 (+0.4)
16	Panthers	44% (27)	71% (27)	5.8% (-1.8)	4.4 (+0.2)
17	Cowboys	50% (17)	69% (31)	3.0% (-2.5)	3.8 (-0.1)
18	Dolphins	51% (15)	71% (28)	9.7% (+2.7)	4.9 (+0.6)
19	Jaguars	42% (28)	74% (14)	6.5% (-0.4)	4.1 (-0.4)
20	Vikings	52% (14)	75% (5)	9.7% (+3.9)	3.8 (-0.2)
21	Saints	45% (26)	73% (16)	6.0% (-1.3)	3.5 (-0.7)
22	Giants	50% (16)	74% (15)	7.3% (+1.9)	3.7 (-0.6)
23	Seahawks	46% (25)	71% (25)	7.0% (+0.7)	3.8 (-0.1)
24	Eagles	48% (20)	71% (23)	7.7% (+1.7)	3.8 (-0.1)
25	Chargers	39% (30)	75% (6)	10.6% (+3.4)	4.4 (-0.0)
26	Commanders	53% (10)	67% (32)	5.8% (+0.7)	4.7 (+0.1)
27	Jets	54% (7)	70% (30)	9.8% (+1.8)	3.6 (-0.6)
28	Titans	42% (29)	70% (29)	6.1% (-0.4)	3.8 (-0.3)
29	Texans	53% (11)	71% (24)	7.0% (+1.0)	3.4 (-1.1)
30	Cardinals	30% (31)	72% (21)	5.7% (-1.3)	3.8 (-0.4)
31	Packers	26% (32)	73% (20)	5.1% (-2.1)	3.1 (-0.9)
32	Browns	47% (22)	71% (26)	11.3% (+5.2)	3.7 (-0.2)

Defensive Lines

The Texans, Lions and Chargers enter, and the Rams, Ravens and Patriots drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s public listing has total DVOA only this week, so defensive DVOA is held for next week.

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Status
1 (1)	Seahawks	65% (1)	30% (12)	8.4% (+2.3)	3.7 (-0.6)	Held
2 (2)	Vikings	63% (2)	32% (3)	9.8% (+2.4)	4.0 (-0.2)	Held
3 (–)	Texans	49% (21)	32% (5)	9.2% (+4.2)	3.3 (-0.7)	New
4 (–)	Lions	60% (3)	29% (19)	8.6% (+1.8)	4.2 (+0.1)	New
5 (4)	Falcons	59% (4)	31% (7)	5.0% (-1.3)	3.8 (-0.4)	Down 1
6 (–)	Chargers	50% (20)	34% (1)	7.2% (+1.8)	3.8 (-0.2)	New
7 (5)	49ers	54% (6)	29% (22)	5.9% (+0.1)	3.7 (-0.5)	Down 2
8 (8)	Broncos	51% (17)	29% (13)	7.3% (+2.0)	4.7 (+0.1)	Held

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better).

• Texans: the biggest sack rate above expectation in the league, and the second-best run defense against expectation. Will Anderson Jr. had three sacks in Tennessee. Their win rates lag the results.
• Lions: third in pass rush win rate, and sacking quarterbacks well above what their lines allow. Detroit’s poor scoring defense has been the secondary, not the front.
• Falcons: fourth and seventh in the win rates, though the sacks lag. Jalon Walker (ACL) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension) are out, and Za’Darius Smith was in the concussion protocol.
• Chargers: first in run stop win rate and above expectation on sacks, on an 0-5 team. Bud Dupree left Week 5 with a neck injury.
• 49ers: down two. Even after five sacks in Seattle, their season sack rate is only about what their opponents’ lines usually allow. Nick Bosa’s calf is the injury to watch.
• Broncos: a sack rate two points above expectation, but run defense slightly below; held at eighth.
• Out: Rams. Twelfth on the numbers. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve and not expected to start practicing this week.
• Out: Ravens. Tenth, and exactly at expectation on sacks without Trey Hendrickson.
• Out: Patriots. Thirteenth, 25th in run stop win rate.
• First out: Browns (seventh on the numbers, but Mason Graham is week to week and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive), Jaguars (the best run defense in yards per carry, 31st in run stop win rate), Jets.
• Giants: 22nd on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.
• Scheme caveat: Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Rank	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)
1	Seahawks	65% (1)	30% (12)	8.4% (+2.3)	3.7 (-0.6)
2	Vikings	63% (2)	32% (3)	9.8% (+2.4)	4.0 (-0.2)
3	Texans	49% (21)	32% (5)	9.2% (+4.2)	3.3 (-0.7)
4	Chargers	50% (20)	34% (1)	7.2% (+1.8)	3.8 (-0.2)
5	Falcons	59% (4)	31% (7)	5.0% (-1.3)	3.8 (-0.4)
6	Lions	60% (3)	29% (19)	8.6% (+1.8)	4.2 (+0.1)
7	Browns	48% (22)	34% (2)	8.4% (+0.5)	4.5 (+0.2)
8	49ers	54% (6)	29% (22)	5.9% (+0.1)	3.7 (-0.5)
9	Broncos	51% (17)	29% (13)	7.3% (+2.0)	4.7 (+0.1)
10	Ravens	50% (19)	31% (11)	5.5% (+0.0)	4.0 (-0.0)
11	Jaguars	53% (11)	26% (31)	5.8% (-0.9)	2.9 (-0.9)
12	Rams	52% (13)	31% (8)	5.2% (-0.3)	4.6 (+0.4)
13	Patriots	52% (12)	28% (25)	6.4% (+0.1)	4.0 (-0.2)
14	Jets	54% (7)	26% (30)	9.6% (+2.8)	4.2 (+0.3)
15	Cardinals	51% (18)	29% (20)	7.3% (+0.9)	4.4 (+0.2)
16	Titans	45% (25)	31% (9)	6.4% (-1.4)	3.5 (-0.4)
17	Eagles	44% (28)	32% (4)	3.3% (-2.2)	4.0 (-0.4)
18	Bengals	48% (23)	31% (6)	9.2% (+1.1)	5.0 (+0.7)
19	Steelers	43% (30)	31% (10)	6.5% (-0.5)	4.0 (-0.0)
20	Bills	48% (24)	29% (14)	5.2% (-1.3)	3.9 (-0.3)
21	Commanders	53% (9)	29% (21)	4.5% (-1.4)	3.9 (+0.2)
22	Giants	58% (5)	29% (18)	4.7% (+0.0)	5.2 (+1.1)
23	Dolphins	52% (15)	27% (27)	2.7% (-2.3)	3.7 (-0.5)
24	Bears	54% (8)	27% (29)	8.5% (+0.8)	4.4 (+0.7)
25	Saints	52% (16)	29% (16)	6.1% (-0.7)	4.9 (+0.6)
26	Buccaneers	53% (10)	27% (26)	3.5% (-3.2)	3.3 (-0.3)
27	Packers	43% (29)	27% (28)	8.2% (-0.5)	4.1 (-0.4)
28	Chiefs	45% (27)	29% (15)	2.6% (-3.0)	3.6 (-0.2)
29	Raiders	45% (26)	28% (23)	7.5% (+0.1)	5.2 (+0.7)
30	Panthers	52% (14)	28% (24)	5.3% (-2.3)	5.4 (+0.9)
31	Colts	37% (32)	25% (32)	5.6% (-0.7)	5.0 (+0.3)
32	Cowboys	41% (31)	29% (17)	3.4% (-4.1)	5.1 (+0.8)

Win Totals

The Patriots move into the AFC field and the Raiders drop out of it; Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 78 wins and that tie banked through Week 5. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Division	Projections
AFC East	Bills 12-5, Patriots 10-7, Jets 6-11, Dolphins 2-15
AFC North	Ravens 11-6, Bengals 10-7, Steelers 9-8, Browns 7-10
AFC South	Jaguars 12-5, Texans 7-10, Colts 7-10, Titans 3-14
AFC West	Chiefs 13-4, Broncos 10-7, Raiders 8-9, Chargers 4-13
NFC East	Cowboys 9-8, Giants 8-8-1, Eagles 8-9, Commanders 5-11-1
NFC North	Vikings 13-4, Lions 10-7, Bears 10-7, Packers 8-9
NFC South	Panthers 10-7, Falcons 8-9, Buccaneers 6-11, Saints 5-12
NFC West	49ers 14-3, Seahawks 11-6, Rams 10-7, Cardinals 5-12

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Bengals, Patriots; first out, Steelers.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Seahawks, then two of the Lions, Bears and Rams; first out, the third of those.
• Ties we could not project: Buffalo and Jacksonville; the three AFC wild cards; the Lions, Bears and Rams.

What moved:

• Up: Buccaneers +2 (first win, 12th in DVOA, Baker Mayfield due back); Vikings, Patriots, Lions, Packers, Steelers and Texans +1.
• Down: Raiders -2 (two straight losses, 25th in DVOA); Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, Browns, Rams, Falcons and Saints -1.
• Eagles 8-9: the line lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens in one week, and the offense has the most three-and-outs in the league (ESPN).
• Falcons 8-9: depends on Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; FTN projects 8.1 wins.
• For comparison, FTN’s simulation gives Dallas a 37.2% chance at the NFC East and Carolina 46.1% in the South (FTN playoff odds).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 6:

• Cowboys 9-8 at Green Bay (8-9), with the Giants hosting the Saints and the Eagles hosting Carolina.
• Bears 10-7 at Atlanta (8-9), with Caleb Williams and Penix both uncertain.
• Seahawks 11-6 at Denver (10-7) on a short week.
• Patriots 10-7 against the Jets, and Raiders 8-9 against Buffalo.
• Texans 7-10 against the Jaguars (12-5) in London.

Week 6 Preview

The line and the model split on three games, all with a road team favored by ESPN and the home team by 1.5 points; we took the line twice (Giants, Packers) and the model once (Panthers). The Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings and Lions are on bye.

Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 52.1%

Key to the Game: Both teams played Sunday. Seattle’s backfield has lost two more fumbles and won’t have Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s offense has needed its defense to set up short fields, and the Broncos are still without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss.

Our Pick: Seahawks. The better defense on a short week, though Sam Darnold’s interceptions make this close.

Texans vs. Jaguars (London)

Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 58.8%

Key to the Game: Jacksonville’s red zone after going 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against a Houston defense with DeMeco Ryans calling it again. Left tackle Anton Harrison was carted off in London. Marvin Harrison Jr. could debut for Houston, and David Montgomery hurt his groin.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bears at Falcons

Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · ESPN: Bears 60.1%

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks: Caleb Williams is back at practice from his hamstring, and Michael Penix Jr. is hurt in his ribs. Atlanta’s run defense was the league’s best until Baltimore ran for 208 yards.

Our Pick: Bears. The pick assumes Williams plays and Penix doesn’t; reverse either and this flips.

Ravens at Browns

Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Ravens 65.8%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against a Cleveland front with Jared Verse and possibly Mason Graham. The Browns allowed eight sacks in New York and may be without right tackle Tytus Howard and receiver KC Concepcion.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Titans at Colts

Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · ESPN: Colts 72%

Key to the Game: A Tennessee offense averaging 10.4 points against an Indianapolis offense that settles for field goals. The Colts lead the league in field-goal attempts.

Our Pick: Colts.

Jets at Patriots

Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · ESPN: Patriots 78.9%

Key to the Game: David Bailey and an eight-sack Jets front against a New England line that may be without left tackle Will Campbell. A.J. Brown could return for the Patriots, whose cornerback room is down to a few healthy players.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Saints at Giants

Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Saints 54.1%

Key to the Game: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 yards a carry, 30th in the league, against a Saints offense held to 142 yards. New York’s kicking cost it a win in Washington, and Tyler Shough is playing with a hurt non-throwing hand.

Our Pick: Giants. The line over the model: the Saints have lost three straight and rank 30th in DVOA.

Panthers at Eagles

Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Panthers 50.5%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s top-ranked passing offense against an Eagles defense that has worn down in fourth quarters, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs in the league. The Panthers start two backup cornerbacks, but Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are due back from the bye.

Our Pick: Panthers. The model over the line: Philadelphia has lost three straight and two starting linemen in a week.

Steelers at Buccaneers

Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Steelers 59.4%

Key to the Game: Bucky Irving and a Tampa Bay run game that just gained 241 yards, against Pittsburgh’s run defense. Baker Mayfield is not expected back until Week 7 at the earliest.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Cardinals at Rams

Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Rams 87.1%

Key to the Game: Arizona allows a league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass attempt. The Rams’ kicking game is the one thing that has cost them close games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chargers at Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 74.3%

Key to the Game: A Kansas City pass rush that pressures without finishing, against a Chargers line of four rookies. Justin Herbert has turned the ball over in five straight games.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Bills at Raiders

Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · ESPN: Bills 69.7%

Key to the Game: A Raiders run game that gained 38 yards in New England, against a Buffalo defense thin at cornerback. Right tackle Spencer Brown hurt his back Monday.

Our Pick: Bills.

Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night)

Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 52.1%

Key to the Game: Jordan Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run. Micah Parsons won’t play, and CeeDee Lamb left Thursday with a quadriceps injury.

Our Pick: Packers. The line over the model: Dallas’ defense has given us no reason to trust it on the road.

Commanders at 49ers (Monday)

Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 82.6%

Key to the Game: Jayden Daniels’ scrambling against a 49ers defense that just sacked Sam Darnold five times, and a Washington defense that has allowed 20 or more second-half points in four straight games. Deebo Samuel hurt his hamstring in Seattle.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Four head coaches blamed themselves. Nick Sirianni (the London kickoff), Jim Harbaugh (the fourth-and-1), Sean McVay (a conservative third-down call before the blocked field goal) and Dan Quinn (the overtime clock) all took the loss, or the tie, on themselves. Three of the four games were decided by three points or fewer.

Special teams decided four games. A 53-yard kickoff return and a 57-yard field goal in London, a fumbled punt snap in New Jersey, a blocked field goal in Los Angeles, and a 2-of-5 kicking day in Washington. Green Bay’s Trey Smack also missed two field goals and an extra point in a 24-point win.

Two head coaches took back the play calls, and both won. Sean Payton took Denver’s offense back from Davis Webb, and DeMeco Ryans took Houston’s defense back from Matt Burke. The Texans held Tennessee to 187 yards. Denver’s offense looked much as it had under Webb (Ringer Staff), and Seattle arrives Thursday.