2026 NFL: Week 7 Review, Week 8 Preview

Week 7 in Brief

The Vikings are the last unbeaten team. The 49ers lost for the first time, 29-20 in Atlanta after four turnovers, and Seattle held the Chiefs to 3 points on Sunday night. Five underdogs won outright, including the Giants at 10 points in Houston, and the Giants now lead the NFC East at 4-2-1 with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. Lamar Jackson missed a third straight game, and Baltimore blew a 13-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati.

 

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 7 Recap

Five of 14 games went to the underdog outright, the biggest the Giants at 10 points in Houston. The run game decided more of them than anything we flagged.

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Bears 30, Patriots 24 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 50.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: A New England line on a short week without Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown; Romeo Doubs’ shoulder; Kyler Gordon’s nickel blitz; Caleb Williams’ short passing against a secondary with Christian Gonzalez back.

What decided it: Williams’ deep shots, not the short game, and one bad Drake Maye throw. Luther Burden caught four passes for 130 yards: a 58-yarder that set up D’Andre Swift’s touchdown, and a 24-yard screen on third-and-17 for a 20-7 lead with 14 seconds left in the half. Maye went 24 of 31 for 321, but D’Marco Jackson intercepted him in the end zone. New England’s line held up better than we expected: Moses and Will Campbell both played, and Maye was sacked twice, once by Gordon on fourth down. Cairo Santos missed from 53, then hit from 58 with 1:34 left, matching the franchise record (AP), and Chicago recovered the onside kick. Cole Kmet hurt his right knee.

Steelers 16, Saints 10 (Paris)

Box score · Line: Steelers -3, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Whether New Orleans could play four quarters; Pittsburgh without Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson, leaning on DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard; Tyler Shough’s hand; Cesar Ruiz’s knee.

What decided it: New Orleans’ run game, not its fourth quarter. With Ruiz inactive and rookie Jeremiah Wright at right guard, the Saints ran 17 times for 18 yards. Pittsburgh ran for 148, 101 of them by Jaylen Warren. Shough went 30 of 38 for 278, but Payton Wilson intercepted him in the red zone in the third quarter, and Chris Boswell’s 39-yarder that followed was the last score. Metcalf’s 51-yard catch set up Aaron Rodgers’ 4-yard touchdown to Darnell Washington, his 540th, which moved him past Peyton Manning for third all time. Daniel Carlson missed from 52 in the fourth quarter.

Falcons 29, 49ers 20

Box score · Line: 49ers -4.5, 50.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: Atlanta’s front against a 49ers team coming off Monday night; Michael Penix Jr. pressured on 46% of his dropbacks; Falcons linebackers Kendal Daniels and Divine Deablo hurt; San Francisco thin at receiver.

What decided it: Turnovers, 4-0. San Francisco outgained Atlanta 400-295 and lost anyway. Kaelon Black lost a fumble at the Atlanta 29, and Jessie Bates III intercepted Brock Purdy at the 10 to set up Drake London’s touchdown for a 26-14 lead. Daniels, hurt a week earlier, intercepted Purdy with 2:34 left and recovered George Kittle’s fumble. A review took away Purdy’s apparent 23-yard touchdown to Jordan Watkins, and Za’Darius Smith sacked him on the next play, fourth down. Penix went 25 of 34 with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Christian McCaffrey hurt his thigh and finished with seven carries; Deablo was inactive.

Browns 27, Titans 24

Box score · Line: Browns -1.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Tennessee’s six-sack defense against a Browns offense that wins late.

What decided it: Deshaun Watson late, again. Tennessee sacked him once, and he threw for 308 yards and led his fifth fourth-quarter winning drive: Harold Fannin Jr.’s 36-yard catch-and-run set up Andre Szmyt’s 32-yarder at the gun, after Szmyt hit the upright from 43. The Titans led 14-0, but Maliek Collins stopped Tony Pollard on fourth-and-goal from inside the 1, and Denzel Ward intercepted Cam Ward. Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns, the last tying it with 58 seconds left. Robert Saleh said officials appeared to miss a false start on the Fannin play. KC Concepcion caught eight passes for 129.

Vikings 16, Colts 10

Box score · Line: Vikings -5.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers; Minnesota off its bye; Sauce Gardner’s calf, no Tyler Warren, a general manager just fired.

What decided it: Minnesota’s blitz, and two missed Colts field goals. Jones went 13 of 22 for 108, was sacked four times for 44 yards, and Harrison Smith’s 40th career interception sealed it. Blake Cashman had two sacks and four passes defensed. Indianapolis led 10-6 into the fourth quarter on Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard run, but Spencer Shrader missed twice; the 56-yard try on fourth-and-2 set up Kyler Murray’s touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson. Will Reichard hit from 52 with 1:39 left after his 59-yard try was blocked. Gardner and Warren were inactive, and Aaron Jones aggravated his knee.

Dolphins 28, Jets 25

Box score · Line: Jets -4.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Jets

Expected: The Jets’ red zone after 0 for 3 at New England; Miami 0-5 off its bye.

What decided it: The red zone, both ways. Miami scored on all three trips inside the 20. The Jets reached the Miami 1 and settled for a field goal, and Michael Taaffe intercepted Geno Smith at the Miami 21. Malik Willis went 14 of 21 for 208 with two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas, the second a 63-yarder for a 28-17 lead, and ran for another. He also gained 2 on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning to end it. Jason Sanders hit the upright from 40. It was Jeff Hafley’s first win, and the Jets are 0-8 in the division under Aaron Glenn.

Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13

Box score · Line: Panthers -3, 44.5 · Our pick: Panthers

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game, 26th in success rate; Baker Mayfield’s thumb; Carolina’s 13 penalties; Jaelan Phillips’ hamstring.

What decided it: The run game we doubted. Tampa Bay ran 49 times for 258 yards, Bucky Irving 106 and two touchdowns, so Mayfield threw only 11 passes in his return. Carolina’s penalties weren’t the problem (four for 56); turnovers were. Al-Quadin Muhammad’s strip-sack of Bryce Young went back 32 yards for a Calijah Kancey touchdown, David Moore muffed a punt, and Young threw two interceptions. Zyon McCollum returned a blocked extra point for 2. Tampa Bay sacked Young five times, three by Yaya Diaby, and led 33-6 at half. Phillips was inactive, and right tackle Taylor Moton was carted off with a left ankle/fibula injury.

Bengals 35, Ravens 13

Box score · Line: Ravens -3, 51.5 · Our pick: Ravens

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and by our own condition the pick was Cincinnati’s. Baltimore outgained the Bengals 258-59 in the first half but led only 13-0 after two short field goals. Cincinnati then scored touchdowns on its first five second-half possessions and went 5 for 5 in the red zone. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes and had a perfect 158.3 rating after halftime (Ben Solak, ESPN), and Tee Higgins caught all six of his passes for 148 yards in the second half. Tyler Huntley threw for 215 in the first half, 120 to Zay Flowers, but missed on fourth-and-2 at the Cincinnati 12. Henry ran 17 times for 45 without a fumble. Baltimore became the first team in 76 years to lead by 13 at half and lose by 20 (AP, via Sportradar). Vega Ioane left with a knee injury. (Our full review)

Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT)

Box score · Line: Texans -10, 42.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: The Giants’ quarterback, Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy; C.J. Stroud with Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylin Noel and Nico Collins against a secondary without Greg Newsome.

What decided it: McCarthy started, and the Giants ran. New York gained 188 yards on 34 carries, the most Houston has allowed this season. Cam Skattebo, without a carry a week earlier, ran 17 times for 124, and his 42-yard run in overtime set up Devin Singletary’s 30-yard winner. McCarthy went 20 of 28 for 252. Stroud threw for a season-low 153, and Houston punted on its first three second-half possessions before Xavier Hutchinson’s touchdown tied it with under a minute left. Dominic Zvada missed twice, and Kayvon Thibodeaux dropped an interception in overtime. Noel left with a toe injury.

Broncos 30, Cardinals 16

Box score · Line: Broncos -4.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: Denver’s offense, 26th in scoring and 31st on third down, against Arizona’s league-best seven fourth-down stops; Jeremiyah Love’s ankle.

What decided it: Big plays, not third downs. Denver went 3 of 11 on third down and still scored 30. Bo Nix ran 62 yards for a touchdown, the longest run of his career, after 37 rushing yards in his first six games, and RJ Harvey took a screen 52 yards for another. Arizona settled: one touchdown in five red-zone trips, 5 of 17 on third down. Denver’s defense had three sacks and 12 quarterback hits, and the Broncos overcame 11 penalties for 114 yards. Love was inactive again, and Arizona has lost 10 straight at home.

Lions 20, Packers 17

Box score · Line: Lions -3, 52.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Detroit’s defense, last in EPA per drive allowed, against Packers drops; Josh Jacobs’ return; Detroit off its bye.

What decided it: Green Bay’s kicking and Detroit’s free first downs. Detroit’s defense allowed 17 points and one touchdown in four Green Bay red-zone trips. Rookie Trey Smack missed from 26 and 35, the first kicker to miss twice from 35 or closer in a game since 2019. Penalties gave Detroit five first downs, two on Karl Brooks during the final drive, and Jake Bates won it from 22 at the gun. Dan Campbell’s fourth-and-1 at his own 24 failed. Jacobs caught a touchdown pass in his season debut. Brian Branch intercepted Jordan Love in his first game back from a torn Achilles, and Green Bay lost both centers.

Rams 35, Raiders 21

Box score · Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: The Rams’ kicking after Blake Grupe’s knee; Davante Adams out; a pass rush that rarely finishes; Ashton Jeanty.

What decided it: The Rams scored touchdowns on all five red-zone trips, so the kicking never came up; Brandon McManus kicked five extra points. Los Angeles led 28-6 at half. Matthew Stafford threw three touchdown passes to become the Rams’ career leader, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ran for 192 combined. The rush got two sacks. Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. ran 14 times for 42. Kirk Cousins threw for 295, but the Raiders failed on two fourth downs in Rams territory and both two-point tries. Puka Nacua played through his calf; Trent McDuffie was inactive again.

Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3 (Sunday night)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: Seattle’s protection after Denver hit Sam Darnold 17 times, against a rush that just had four sacks; Kansas City’s injured tackles against our top defensive line.

What decided it: Seattle’s lines, on both sides. Kansas City didn’t sack Darnold, and Seattle ran 41 times for 153, Emanuel Wilson 100 of it. Kenneth Walker, the league’s leading rusher against his old team, ran 14 times for 36, and the Chiefs finished with 213 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught nine passes for 150 and a touchdown. Ty Okada intercepted Patrick Mahomes, and Harrison Butker missed from 45. Darnold also threw an interception at the goal line. Kansas City played without both starting tackles, Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore, and without Rashee Rice; Seattle lost Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Charles Cross (ankle).

Cowboys 38, Eagles 21 (Monday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -4.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts out for the season; Philadelphia’s six third-quarter points; Dak Prescott’s interceptions.

What decided it: Dallas ran, and Prescott didn’t throw an interception. Javonte Williams ran for a career-high 155, the first 150-yard game by a Cowboy since 2018, and Dallas finished with 204 on the ground. Prescott threw three touchdown passes, two to CeeDee Lamb, the second a 16-yard floater that retook the lead late in the third quarter. Philadelphia did score in the third, its first third-quarter touchdown this season, for a 21-20 lead. McKee went 23 of 35 for 211, and DeMarvion Overshown’s interception sealed it. Saquon Barkley scored in his return but was limited by his hamstring and back. The Eagles have lost five straight.

Power Rankings

The 49ers hold No. 1 through their first loss; they are still first in DVOA and on ESPN’s list. The biggest moves are the Buccaneers (up 6), Bengals and Steelers (up 5), and Panthers (down 8). Our line rankings count here: both Falcons lines rank in our top 10, which helps lift a 3-4 team four spots, and both Packers lines rank in our bottom five, which drops a 4-3 team two.

BSL	Team	Rec	Pre	DVOA	ESPN	NFL.com	Prisco
1	49ers	6-1	14	1	1	3	3
2	Bills	5-1	3	4	2	2	2
3	Vikings	6-0	19	6	3	1	1
4	Seahawks	4-3	2	5	5	4	6
5	Chiefs	5-1	11	8	4	7	4
6	Bengals	4-2	12	2	9	5	5
7	Jaguars	4-2	17	3	6	6	9
8	Broncos	5-2	6	11	8	8	7
9	Bears	5-2	16	17	7	9	8
10	Patriots	4-3	10	12	10	10	11
11	Lions	4-2	9	18	11	11	10
12	Steelers	5-2	20	9	14	14	15
13	Rams	3-4	1	10	12	21	16
14	Ravens	4-3	5	15	13	16	12
15	Browns	5-2	31	21	16	12	14
16	Falcons	3-4	26	19	19	13	19
17	Packers	4-3	13	20	15	15	13
18	Buccaneers	2-5	18	7	24	19	23
19	Giants	4-2-1	24	25	17	17	17
20	Cowboys	3-4	15	16	20	22	20
21	Panthers	3-3	23	13	18	20	18
22	Texans	2-5	7	14	21	18	21
23	Raiders	3-4	29	27	22	25	22
24	Eagles	2-5	4	28	23	28	24
25	Jets	2-5	28	22	27	29	26
26	Saints	2-5	21	29	25	23	27
27	Commanders	1-4-1	25	24	29	24	29
28	Colts	2-5	22	26	26	31	25
29	Cardinals	2-5	30	23	28	30	28
30	Dolphins	1-5	32	30	30	26	30
31	Titans	1-6	27	31	31	27	31
32	Chargers	0-6	8	32	32	32	32

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 7. Outside rankings: ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.

1. 49ers (1). 6-1 after four turnovers in Atlanta, and still first in DVOA and first on our offensive line list. The bye comes with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey (thigh) all hurt.
2. Bills (3). Up one on a bye. Second on our offensive line list; Lamar Jackson’s possible return is next (Prisco).
3. Vikings (4). Up one at 6-0, first in the other three lists. The defense has allowed a league-low 74 points; the offense has 10 touchdowns in six games.
4. Seahawks (8). Up four. Held Kansas City to 3 points and 50 rushing yards, and our top defensive line again.
5. Chiefs (2). Down three after 213 yards in Seattle. Our third offensive line, but 25th on defense, and Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore were both out.
6. Bengals (11). Up five. Second in DVOA after five straight second-half touchdowns in Baltimore.
7. Jaguars (5). Down two on a bye. Third in DVOA, but left tackle Anton Harrison is out for the season (Prisco).
8. Broncos (7). Down one despite winning. Three straight wins, and the offense finally hit big plays in Arizona.
9. Bears (9). Held after beating New England. Caleb Williams has 300-yard games in consecutive weeks, though DVOA (17th) is lower on them than any list.
10. Patriots (6). Down four after losing in Chicago. Back on our offensive line list at fifth, with Morgan Moses and Alijah Vera-Tucker playing Thursday.
11. Lions (12). Up one. Two straight wins, but both lines sit outside our top 8 and the defense is 25th in defensive DVOA.
12. Steelers (17). Up five. Three straight wins, ninth in DVOA, and both lines in our top 15.
13. Rams (14). Up one. Both lines rank in our top 13, and they scored touchdowns on all five red-zone trips in Las Vegas.
14. Ravens (10). Down four. A second straight blown lead without Lamar Jackson, and the coverage, not the rush, is the problem (Solak).
15. Browns (18). Up three. 5-2 on Deshaun Watson’s fifth winning drive, with our third-ranked defensive line and 30th-ranked offensive line.
16. Falcons (20). Up four. Handed San Francisco its first loss, and both lines rank in our top 10.
17. Packers (15). Down two. Two missed short field goals in Detroit, two centers hurt, and both lines in our bottom five.
18. Buccaneers (24). Up six. 258 rushing yards in Carolina and seventh in DVOA, well above any outside list.
19. Giants (22). Up three. J.J. McCarthy’s first start won in Houston, and they lead the NFC East at 4-2-1.
20. Cowboys (21). Up one. Javonte Williams’ 155 yards in Philadelphia, with our seventh-ranked offensive line and 31st-ranked defensive line.
21. Panthers (13). Down eight after a 43-13 home loss: five sacks allowed, four turnovers, and Taylor Moton carted off.
22. Texans (16). Down six after losing at home to a third-string quarterback. Houston allowed 188 rushing yards.
23. Raiders (19). Down four after a fourth straight loss and 30-plus points allowed for a fourth straight week.
24. Eagles (25). Up one, mostly as others fell. Five straight losses; Philadelphia has allowed at least 375 yards in each.
25. Jets (23). Down two after losing at home to the Dolphins. 0-8 in the division under Aaron Glenn.
26. Saints (27). Up one. 18 rushing yards in Paris; bye next.
27. Commanders (29). Up two on a bye, ahead of Philadelphia at home.
28. Colts (28). Held. Daniel Jones has four touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and the defensive line ranks last on our list.
29. Cardinals (26). Down three. One touchdown in five red-zone trips at home against Denver, and 10 straight home losses.
30. Dolphins (32). Up two with their first win, behind Malik Willis.
31. Titans (30). Down one. Tony Pollard ran for 129 and three touchdowns, and they still lost.
32. Chargers (31). Down one on a bye, the only winless team.

Offensive Lines

The 49ers take No. 1 back from the Bills. The Patriots return after two weeks held out, and the Cowboys enter after 204 rushing yards in Philadelphia; the Raiders and Bears drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate allowed (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Status
1 (3)	49ers	64% (1)	75% (6)	3.2% (-2.4)	4.7 (+0.6)	Up 2
2 (1)	Bills	59% (3)	77% (2)	6.6% (0.0)	5.1 (+0.9)	Down 1
3 (2)	Chiefs	54% (8)	75% (7)	3.5% (-2.6)	5.3 (+1.0)	Down 1
4 (4)	Rams	53% (10)	77% (1)	3.4% (-2.0)	4.7 (+0.3)	Held
5 (–)	Patriots	57% (5)	75% (8)	5.6% (-1.2)	4.2 (+0.2)	New
6 (5)	Bengals	45% (28)	76% (3)	4.4% (-1.6)	3.6 (0.0)	Down 1
7 (–)	Cowboys	54% (9)	71% (28)	2.5% (-3.0)	4.1 (+0.1)	New
8 (8)	Steelers	53% (11)	74% (11)	7.7% (+0.7)	4.6 (+0.4)	Held

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 7, rank in parentheses (ESPN). Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats through Week 6 and the Week 7 box scores, and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• 49ers: up two, first in pass block win rate and a 3.2% sack rate. Ran for 123 in Atlanta without Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel or, for most of the first half, Christian McCaffrey.
• Bills: down one on a bye. Second in run block win rate; the sack rate is now exactly what their opponents allow.
• Chiefs: down one. Allowed one sack in Seattle but ran 16 times for 50, without both starting tackles, Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore (Solak).
• Rams: held, first in run block win rate. Ran for 199 in Las Vegas and allowed one sack; Alaric Jackson’s suspension length is still unknown.
• Patriots: back in at fifth, where the numbers had them the last two weeks. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Will Campbell all played Thursday, and Drake Maye was sacked twice; center Ben Brown was inactive.
• Bengals: down one. Third in run block win rate but 28th in pass block; Joe Burrow was sacked once in Baltimore.
• Cowboys: in, on the league’s lowest sack rate, 2.5%, and Monday’s 204 rushing yards. Still 28th in run block win rate, the gap we charted last week.
• Steelers: held after 148 rushing yards in Paris, though Aaron Rodgers was sacked three times.
• Out: Raiders and Bears. The Raiders are 15th on the numbers: second in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry, a full yard below expectation. The Bears, ninth, allowed three sacks Thursday.
• First out: Bears, Falcons, Jaguars (left tackle Anton Harrison out for the season, per Prisco).
• Charting against results: Packers (last in pass block win rate but a 4.9% sack rate; 2.9 yards a carry) and Browns (30th; a 10.6% sack rate, the league’s worst, on a 5-2 team).
• Watch in Week 8: Green Bay’s centers Thursday, with Sean Rhyan and Jacob Monk hurt; the Chiefs’ tackles in Denver; Carolina without Taylor Moton.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Rank	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate allowed (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)
1	49ers	64% (1)	75% (6)	3.2% (-2.4)	4.7 (+0.6)
2	Bills	59% (3)	77% (2)	6.6% (0.0)	5.1 (+0.9)
3	Chiefs	54% (8)	75% (7)	3.5% (-2.6)	5.3 (+1.0)
4	Rams	53% (10)	77% (1)	3.4% (-2.0)	4.7 (+0.3)
5	Patriots	57% (5)	75% (8)	5.6% (-1.2)	4.2 (+0.2)
6	Bengals	45% (28)	76% (3)	4.4% (-1.6)	3.6 (0.0)
7	Cowboys	54% (9)	71% (28)	2.5% (-3.0)	4.1 (+0.1)
8	Steelers	53% (11)	74% (11)	7.7% (+0.7)	4.6 (+0.4)
9	Bears	57% (4)	73% (18)	6.9% (+0.4)	4.4 (+0.2)
10	Falcons	49% (17)	74% (15)	7.4% (+0.7)	4.8 (+0.6)
11	Jaguars	47% (22)	74% (9)	5.2% (-2.0)	4.1 (-0.2)
12	Colts	49% (19)	74% (10)	7.3% (+0.6)	4.1 (+0.2)
13	Buccaneers	52% (12)	74% (12)	9.7% (+2.5)	4.9 (+0.5)
14	Lions	55% (7)	72% (20)	5.1% (-1.2)	4.2 (-0.2)
15	Raiders	62% (2)	73% (19)	3.6% (-1.5)	3.0 (-1.0)
16	Broncos	45% (24)	73% (17)	4.0% (-1.5)	3.8 (0.0)
17	Saints	45% (27)	74% (13)	5.2% (-1.6)	3.5 (-0.7)
18	Ravens	48% (20)	72% (21)	8.2% (+1.4)	4.7 (+0.2)
19	Vikings	52% (13)	75% (4)	9.9% (+3.6)	4.0 (-0.3)
20	Dolphins	49% (18)	71% (26)	9.6% (+2.2)	4.6 (+0.4)
21	Giants	50% (15)	73% (16)	8.0% (+2.0)	4.1 (-0.3)
22	Panthers	45% (25)	70% (31)	6.8% (+0.3)	4.3 (+0.2)
23	Commanders	55% (6)	68% (32)	6.5% (+1.4)	4.6 (+0.3)
24	Seahawks	47% (21)	71% (27)	6.6% (+0.7)	3.9 (-0.2)
25	Eagles	49% (16)	72% (23)	7.1% (+1.5)	3.9 (-0.4)
26	Jets	51% (14)	72% (25)	9.2% (+2.4)	3.8 (-0.3)
27	Titans	40% (29)	71% (29)	5.0% (-1.2)	4.0 (-0.3)
28	Texans	46% (23)	72% (22)	5.7% (0.0)	3.6 (-0.8)
29	Chargers	38% (30)	75% (5)	10.4% (+4.4)	4.2 (0.0)
30	Browns	45% (26)	72% (24)	10.6% (+4.2)	4.1 (+0.1)
31	Packers	31% (32)	74% (14)	4.9% (-2.4)	2.9 (-1.2)
32	Cardinals	32% (31)	70% (30)	5.0% (-1.0)	3.7 (-0.4)

Defensive Lines

The top two hold, the Browns return, and the Lions drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top.

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Def. DVOA	Status
1 (1)	Seahawks	61% (2)	31% (9)	7.4% (+1.9)	3.5 (-0.9)	-24.7% (1)	Held
2 (2)	Vikings	65% (1)	31% (11)	10.6% (+3.3)	4.2 (+0.1)	-23.0% (2)	Held
3 (–)	Browns	53% (10)	34% (1)	7.8% (+0.4)	4.4 (+0.1)	-7.8% (12)	New
4 (3)	Falcons	53% (11)	33% (3)	5.6% (-0.5)	3.8 (-0.3)	-8.4% (11)	Down 1
5 (4)	Texans	49% (21)	30% (12)	7.9% (+2.3)	3.8 (-0.3)	0.7% (16)	Down 1
6 (6)	Chargers	48% (23)	33% (4)	6.0% (+1.2)	4.0 (-0.1)	4.5% (20)	Held
7 (7)	Ravens	54% (7)	31% (8)	6.6% (+0.5)	3.8 (-0.2)	1.8% (17)	Held
8 (8)	Broncos	54% (6)	31% (10)	7.4% (+2.0)	4.6 (+0.2)	-11.7% (5)	Held

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better). Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 7, rank in parentheses (FTN); negative is better, and it rates the whole defense, not only the line.

• Seahawks: held Kansas City to 50 rushing yards and 3 points, and now first in defensive DVOA. Seattle hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 games.
• Vikings: four sacks of Daniel Jones and the league’s highest sack rate, 10.6%. Minnesota blitzes heavily under Brian Flores, so some of that pressure is the coordinator’s.
• Browns: back in after two weeks held out. Mason Graham played Sunday, though Mike Hall Jr. was inactive again; first in run stop win rate.
• Falcons: down one. Two sacks of Brock Purdy and four takeaways, though San Francisco ran for 123.
• Texans: down one after allowing 188 rushing yards to the Giants, the most this season. Houston is 30th in success rate against the run (Bill Barnwell, ESPN).
• Chargers: held on a bye. Fourth in run stop win rate on an 0-6 team.
• Ravens: held. Trey Hendrickson had two quarterback hits and no sacks against his old team; Baltimore’s pressure has been fine, its coverage hasn’t (Solak).
• Broncos: held after three sacks and 12 quarterback hits in Arizona.
• Out: Lions. Ninth on the numbers and fourth in pass rush win rate, but one sack Sunday and 25th in defensive DVOA.
• First out: Lions, 49ers (Nick Bosa still out), Buccaneers (five sacks in Carolina; third in defensive DVOA).
• Giants: 18th on the numbers and third in pass rush win rate. Not restored on win rate alone.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Rank	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)
1	Seahawks	61% (2)	31% (9)	7.4% (+1.9)	3.5 (-0.9)
2	Vikings	65% (1)	31% (11)	10.6% (+3.3)	4.2 (+0.1)
3	Browns	53% (10)	34% (1)	7.8% (+0.4)	4.4 (+0.1)
4	Falcons	53% (11)	33% (3)	5.6% (-0.5)	3.8 (-0.3)
5	Texans	49% (21)	30% (12)	7.9% (+2.3)	3.8 (-0.3)
6	Chargers	48% (23)	33% (4)	6.0% (+1.2)	4.0 (-0.1)
7	Ravens	54% (7)	31% (8)	6.6% (+0.5)	3.8 (-0.2)
8	Broncos	54% (6)	31% (10)	7.4% (+2.0)	4.6 (+0.2)
9	Lions	61% (4)	29% (22)	7.5% (+1.2)	4.1 (+0.2)
10	49ers	49% (19)	29% (20)	5.7% (-0.4)	3.5 (-0.8)
11	Buccaneers	52% (12)	30% (13)	6.1% (-0.6)	3.6 (-0.4)
12	Bengals	48% (24)	31% (7)	9.4% (+1.8)	4.7 (+0.3)
13	Rams	52% (14)	33% (2)	4.2% (-1.1)	4.2 (+0.2)
14	Patriots	50% (17)	29% (21)	7.0% (+0.5)	3.9 (-0.2)
15	Steelers	43% (30)	31% (6)	7.0% (-0.2)	3.7 (-0.4)
16	Jaguars	57% (5)	26% (30)	4.9% (-1.3)	3.2 (-0.6)
17	Bears	53% (9)	27% (26)	8.9% (+1.7)	4.4 (+0.5)
18	Giants	61% (3)	29% (19)	3.9% (-0.8)	4.8 (+0.8)
19	Jets	49% (18)	26% (32)	8.2% (+1.4)	4.1 (+0.1)
20	Cardinals	52% (14)	27% (25)	6.5% (+0.7)	4.7 (+0.4)
21	Commanders	48% (22)	28% (23)	4.8% (-1.0)	4.0 (-0.1)
22	Eagles	44% (29)	31% (5)	3.2% (-2.0)	4.2 (-0.1)
23	Saints	50% (16)	29% (17)	7.3% (+0.1)	4.8 (+0.6)
24	Titans	45% (27)	30% (14)	7.1% (-1.0)	4.2 (+0.2)
25	Chiefs	49% (20)	29% (15)	3.6% (-3.3)	3.6 (-0.4)
26	Bills	44% (28)	29% (16)	4.3% (-1.3)	3.8 (-0.1)
27	Dolphins	52% (13)	27% (27)	3.3% (-2.3)	3.8 (-0.2)
28	Packers	45% (26)	26% (28)	6.2% (-1.1)	3.9 (-0.4)
29	Raiders	45% (25)	26% (31)	6.7% (+0.4)	5.0 (+0.5)
30	Panthers	54% (8)	27% (24)	5.2% (-2.6)	5.2 (+0.8)
31	Cowboys	41% (31)	29% (18)	4.4% (-2.7)	4.7 (+0.7)
32	Colts	38% (32)	26% (29)	5.8% (-0.9)	4.8 (+0.4)

Win Totals

The Giants take the NFC East from Dallas, and the Steelers move into the AFC field with the Ravens first out. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 106 wins and that tie banked through Week 7. Kansas City, first team out in August, now shares the AFC’s best projection with Buffalo.

Division	Projections
AFC East	Bills 12-5, Patriots 10-7, Jets 5-12, Dolphins 3-14
AFC North	Bengals 11-6, Steelers 10-7, Ravens 9-8, Browns 9-8
AFC South	Jaguars 11-6, Texans 8-9, Colts 6-11, Titans 4-13
AFC West	Chiefs 12-5, Broncos 10-7, Raiders 7-10, Chargers 3-14
NFC East	Giants 9-7-1, Cowboys 9-8, Eagles 6-11, Commanders 5-11-1
NFC North	Vikings 13-4, Bears 11-6, Lions 10-7, Packers 9-8
NFC South	Panthers 9-8, Falcons 8-9, Buccaneers 7-10, Saints 6-11
NFC West	49ers 13-4, Seahawks 11-6, Rams 9-8, Cardinals 6-11

• AFC seeds: Chiefs and Bills, then Bengals and Jaguars; wild cards Broncos, Patriots and Steelers; first out, the Ravens or Browns.
• NFC seeds: 49ers and Vikings, then Giants and Panthers; wild cards Bears, Seahawks and Lions; first out, the Cowboys, Rams or Packers.
• Ties we could not project: Kansas City and Buffalo for the AFC’s top seed; Cincinnati and Jacksonville for third; the order of the three AFC wild cards; the Ravens and Browns for first out; San Francisco and Minnesota for the NFC’s top seed; the Bears and Seahawks for fifth; and the Cowboys, Rams and Packers for first out.

What moved:

• Up: Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Giants, Falcons, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Dolphins, +1 each.
• Down: Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, Texans, Panthers, Jets, Raiders and Eagles, -1 each.
• Giants 9-7-1: now the NFC East winner. At 4-2-1 they are more than two games clear of Dallas and Philadelphia (Barnwell), and the Cowboys need 6-4 the rest of the way to reach 9-8.
• Ravens 9-8: two straight division losses without Lamar Jackson, and FTN still gives them the hardest remaining schedule. Buffalo is next.

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 8:

• Ravens 9-8 at the Bills (12-5).
• Vikings 13-4 at the Lions (10-7).
• Browns 9-8 at the Steelers (10-7).
• Chiefs 12-5 at the Broncos (10-7).
• Panthers 9-8 at the Packers (9-8) on Thursday, and Bears 11-6 at the Seahawks (11-6) on Monday.

Week 8 Preview

The line and the model agree on every favorite this week. We go against both twice, in two close games: the Jets and the Broncos. Houston, New Orleans, the Giants and San Francisco are on bye.

Panthers at Packers (Thursday)

Line: Packers -3.5, 48.5 · ESPN: Packers 64.7%

Key to the Game: Which bad line holds up. Green Bay ranks 31st on our offensive line list and will be without centers Sean Rhyan (ankle) and Jacob Monk (quad), per Matt LaFleur (AP). Carolina ranks 30th on our defensive list, and its own line lost Taylor Moton after Bryce Young was sacked five times. Trey Smack missed twice from 35 or closer in Detroit.

Our Pick: Packers.

Falcons at Buccaneers

Line: Buccaneers -2.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Buccaneers 69.1%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, 258 yards on 49 carries in Carolina, against an Atlanta front that is third in run stop win rate and fourth on our defensive list. Michael Penix Jr. has stopped turning the ball over: no interceptions against San Francisco.

Our Pick: Buccaneers.

Cardinals at Cowboys

Line: Cowboys -6.5, 54.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 78.0%

Key to the Game: Dallas’ run game after 204 yards in Philadelphia, against an Arizona defense 29th in defensive DVOA. The Cowboys’ defensive line ranks 31st, and Trey McBride caught 10 passes against Denver, but Arizona scored one touchdown in five red-zone trips.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Ravens at Bills

Line: Bills -3.5, 53.5 · ESPN: Bills 61.4%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle. He has missed three games, and Baltimore is 1-2 without him . Buffalo comes off its bye with our second-ranked offensive line, and Baltimore’s problem is coverage, not pressure (Solak).

Our Pick: Bills.

Browns at Steelers

Line: Steelers -3.5, 39.5 · ESPN: Steelers 65.7%

Key to the Game: First place in the AFC North; both teams are 5-2. Cleveland’s offensive line allows the league’s highest sack rate, 10.6%, and Deshaun Watson keeps winning late anyway. Pittsburgh has won three straight and ran for 148 in Paris.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Colts at Jaguars

Line: Jaguars -8.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 73.3%

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones, with four touchdown passes and seven interceptions; Shane Steichen says he isn’t considering a change (AP). Jacksonville comes off its bye without left tackle Anton Harrison (Prisco).

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Raiders at Jets

Line: Raiders -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Raiders 52.0%

Key to the Game: Two teams on losing streaks with questions above the field. Las Vegas has allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks (AP), and Barnwell asks whether it’s time for Fernando Mendoza. The Jets have lost two straight division games under Aaron Glenn.

Our Pick: Jets. Against a narrow line and model: the Jets are at home, and the Raiders have allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks.

Vikings at Lions

Line: Lions -3.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Lions 55.2%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s defense, first in points allowed, against Jared Goff, whose 112.5 passer rating trails only one quarterback (Solak). The Vikings’ offense has 10 touchdowns in six games, and Detroit lost two fumbles against Green Bay after one turnover all season.

Our Pick: Lions. Low confidence: at home against an offense that hasn’t scored enough to test them.

Titans at Bengals

Line: Bengals -10, 46.5 · ESPN: Bengals 86.6%

Key to the Game: Joe Burrow after a perfect second half in Baltimore, against a Tennessee defense last in defensive DVOA. Tony Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Tennessee’s loss to Cleveland.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Chargers at Rams

Line: Rams -6.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Rams 73.9%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ run game, first in run block win rate, against a Chargers team off its bye at 0-6. Justin Herbert leads the league with eight interceptions.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chiefs at Broncos

Line: Chiefs -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 55.7%

Key to the Game: Kansas City’s offense after 3 points in Seattle. Rashee Rice could return (Solak), but the Chiefs’ tackles face a Denver rush that just had 12 quarterback hits. Denver has won three straight.

Our Pick: Broncos. Against the line and the model, both narrow: Kansas City scored 3 points without both starting tackles, and Denver’s rush just had 12 quarterback hits.

Patriots at Dolphins

Line: Patriots -7.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Patriots 79.7%

Key to the Game: Malik Willis and a Miami offense that went 3 for 3 in the red zone, against a Patriots defense Prisco says slipped in Chicago.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Eagles at Commanders (Sunday night)

Line: Commanders -5.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Commanders 64.1%

Key to the Game: Tanner McKee, on a five-game losing streak, against a Washington team off its bye and without Terry McLaurin. Philadelphia has allowed at least 375 yards in each loss (AP).

Our Pick: Commanders.

Bears at Seahawks (Monday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 46.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 54.7%

Key to the Game: Seattle’s front, first on our defensive list, against a Chicago line that just fell out of our top 8. Caleb Williams has back-to-back 300-yard games (AP); Seattle lost Rashid Shaheed (knee) and tackle Charles Cross (ankle) against Kansas City.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. The run game picked the winners. The team with more rushing yards won 11 of 14 games. Five teams ran for 180 or more (Tampa Bay 258, Dallas 204, the Rams 199, the Giants 188, Cleveland 183), and all five won, all on the road. The exceptions were Atlanta, Minnesota and Cincinnati, each of which won the turnover battle instead.

2. Kickers missed everywhere. The AP recaps list 13 missed field goals across Thursday and Sunday, from Trey Smack’s two short misses in Detroit to Harrison Butker’s 45-yarder in Seattle. Two of them decided games: Spencer Shrader’s 56-yard miss set up Minnesota’s only touchdown, and Smack’s 35-yarder, tipped by D.J. Wonnum, left Green Bay tied for Detroit’s last drive.

3. Double-digit leads didn’t hold. The 49ers led Atlanta 14-3, the Titans led Cleveland 14-0, and the Ravens led Cincinnati 13-0 at halftime. All three lost. Baltimore has now blown double-digit second-half leads in consecutive weeks.