2026 NFL: Week 8 Review, Week 9 Preview

Week 8 in Brief

There are no unbeaten teams left. Detroit ran for 230 yards to hand Minnesota its first loss, 19-15, and Buffalo moved to the top of most outside rankings after a 36-10 win over Baltimore.

• Lamar Jackson lasted one snap. He hurt his right thumb on his first play back from the ankle injury and is headed for surgery and injured reserve. Backup Tyler Huntley left with a toe injury, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano finished the game.
• Tampa Bay won without completing a pass. Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3, the Buccaneers ran 56 times for a team-record 324 yards, and Atlanta lost 16-0 in the rain. It was the first game with zero completions since the 1974 Bills.
• Dallas blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead at home for the first time, losing 33-30 in overtime to an Arizona team that benched Jacoby Brissett for Gardner Minshew.
• Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns, ran for the winner in overtime and joined Norm Van Brocklin (1951) as the only quarterbacks with 450 passing yards, five touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in a game.
• Denver held Kansas City out of the end zone from inside the 5 in the final 35 seconds, ending with Malcolm Roach’s sack on the last play, to win 28-24 and take first in the AFC West.
• Jeffery Simmons had a sack in his Bears debut, and Chicago beat the defending champions 34-17 in Seattle on Monday night.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Recap

Lines are the ones we published last week.

Packers 27, Panthers 19 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Packers -3.5, 48.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: which bad line held up. Green Bay was 31st on our offensive line list and without both centers; Carolina was 30th on our defensive line list and without Taylor Moton.

What decided it: Green Bay’s front, not its line. The Packers sacked Bryce Young six times, one each from six players, and Carolina turned three takeaways into a single field goal. Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes while the Packers ran 26 times for 66 yards. Carolina played without Moton and left guard Damien Lewis.

Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0

Box score · Line: Buccaneers -2.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Buccaneers

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game against an Atlanta front third in run stop win rate, and Michael Penix Jr.’s streak without an interception.

What decided it: the run game, in a driving rain. Tampa Bay ran 56 times for 324 yards, a team record: Bucky Irving had 170 and Kenny Gainwell 140. Mayfield threw three passes and completed none. Penix went 8 of 24 with four interceptions, two by Alex Anzalone in the first quarter.

Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 (OT)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -6.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Dallas’ run game (204 yards the week before) against a defense 29th in defensive DVOA, and Arizona’s red-zone trouble.

What decided it: neither held. Dallas ran 39 times for 93 yards. Arizona benched Brissett late in the third quarter, and Minshew went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Tyler Allgeier ran 11 times for 147 yards, all but 7 of his scrimmage yards after halftime. Dallas led 24-10 in the fourth quarter. Chad Ryland missed the go-ahead extra point with 6 seconds left, then won it from 42 yards in overtime.

Bills 36, Ravens 10

Box score · Our Ravens review · Line: Bills -3.5, 53.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: Jackson’s ankle, Buffalo off its bye, and Baltimore’s coverage.

What decided it: Jackson’s thumb. He was hurt on the first offensive snap, Huntley left in the second quarter, and Fagnano played the rest. Three quarterbacks combined for 68 net passing yards, Baltimore’s fewest since 2017. The Ravens trailed only 16-10 early in the third quarter; Buffalo then scored touchdowns on three of four possessions. Josh Allen threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns, ran for another and passed Jim Kelly for the Bills’ career touchdown record.

Steelers 27, Browns 6

Box score · Line: Steelers -3.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: first place in the AFC North, Cleveland’s league-worst 10.6% sack rate, and Deshaun Watson’s late-game finishes.

What decided it: the lines. Pittsburgh sacked Watson eight times, two by T.J. Watt, and ran 33 times for 200 yards; Jaylen Warren had 143. Cleveland ran 15 times for 34. It was the Steelers’ 23rd straight regular-season home win over the Browns.

Jaguars 42, Colts 7

Box score · Line: Jaguars -8.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Daniel Jones, and Jacksonville off its bye without Anton Harrison.

What decided it: Jones. He threw two interceptions, one returned 92 yards for a touchdown by Rayuan Lane before halftime, and was benched for Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter. Trevor Lawrence went 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns. The cost was nose tackle DaVon Hamilton, carted off with a right knee injury.

Raiders 38, Jets 33

Box score · Line: Raiders -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Jets

Expected: the Jets at home against a Raiders defense that had allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks.

What decided it: the Raiders allowed 30-plus again and won anyway. The Jets scored on their first six possessions and Braelon Allen ran for 147 yards. Kirk Cousins went 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth; Dylan Laube returned a kickoff 95 yards. Jeremy Chinn’s end-zone interception ended it.

Lions 19, Vikings 15

Box score · Line: Lions -3.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Minnesota’s defense, first in points allowed, against Jared Goff, and a Vikings offense with 10 touchdowns in six games.

What decided it: Detroit’s run game. The Lions ran 39 times for 230 yards, 164 after halftime, against a defense that had been allowing under 100 a game; Jahmyr Gibbs had 153. Kevin O’Connell punted on fourth-and-5 from his own 33 with 3:01 left, and Detroit never gave the ball back. Linebacker Jack Campbell was taken to a hospital with a neck injury.

Bengals 43, Titans 36 (OT)

Box score · Line: Bengals -10, 46.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Burrow against a defense last in defensive DVOA, and Tony Pollard.

What decided it: Burrow, both ways. He went 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, was intercepted three times by Amani Hooker, tied it with 1:17 left and ran 9 yards for the winner in overtime. Pollard ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns, and Cam Ward threw for 304, his career high. Tennessee led 13-0 in the first quarter and 36-29 with 3:42 left.

Rams 24, Chargers 9

Box score · Line: Rams -6.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: the Rams’ run game, first in run block win rate, against an 0-6 team off its bye, and Justin Herbert’s interceptions.

What decided it: Herbert’s two interceptions, by Quentin Lake and Trent McDuffie, which the Rams turned into 10 points. The Rams had no first down until late in the first half and trailed 9-3, then scored on three touchdown drives. The Chargers ran 25 times for 64 yards and have not scored a touchdown in two games.

Broncos 28, Chiefs 24

Box score · Line: Chiefs -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: a Kansas City offense that scored 3 points without both starting tackles, Denver’s pass rush, and whether Rashee Rice returned.

What decided it: the last two minutes. Rice and tackle Jaylon Moore were back, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns as Kansas City led 24-13 early in the fourth. Harrison Butker missed from 54 yards, and Denver scored two plays later on Jonah Coleman’s 51-yard catch and 5-yard run. On fourth-and-goal from the 1, a Moore false start wiped out a touchdown to Rice, and Roach sacked Mahomes on the replay.

Patriots 24, Dolphins 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Malik Willis and Miami’s red-zone efficiency against a Patriots defense that had slipped.

What decided it: the second half. Miami led 13-3 at halftime, and New England outscored it 21-0 after. Drake Maye went 16 of 20 for 199 yards, with touchdown passes of 43 and 48 yards, and ran for a third, without A.J. Brown or TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots sacked Willis five times; Miami ran 23 times for 74 yards without left guard Kadyn Proctor.

Commanders 27, Eagles 10 (Sunday night)

Box score · Line: Commanders -5.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Commanders

Expected: Tanner McKee on a five-game losing streak against Washington off its bye, without Terry McLaurin.

What decided it: Washington’s defense after a sloppy first quarter. The Eagles led 10-0; Washington then scored 27 straight points. The Commanders sacked McKee five times and held Philadelphia to 91 rushing yards. Jayden Daniels threw for 217 yards and won as a starter for the first time since Oct. 5, 2025. McLaurin is out for the season.

Bears 34, Seahawks 17 (Monday night)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 46.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Seattle’s front, first on our defensive line list, against a Chicago line just outside our top 8, and Caleb Williams’ two straight 300-yard games.

What decided it: Chicago won up front on both sides. Williams threw for 247 yards with no turnovers and one sack, D’Andre Swift ran for three touchdowns, and the opening drive went 17 plays for a touchdown. Simmons had a sack in his debut. Seattle converted 1 of 11 third downs and ran for 81 yards in its first game with Quenton Nelson.

Power Rankings

The 49ers stay first through their bye. They lead FTN’s DVOA, have our No. 1 offensive line, and add DeForest Buckner up front. Buffalo is a close second, and Jacksonville jumps four spots to third.

BSL	Team	Rec	Pre	DVOA	ESPN	NFL.com*	Prisco
1	49ers	6-1	14	1	2	1	2
2	Bills	6-1	3	4	1	6	1
3	Jaguars	5-2	17	2	3	4	3
4	Broncos	6-2	6	11	4	3	5
5	Bears	6-2	16	13	5	2	4
6	Chiefs	5-2	11	8	6	10	7
7	Vikings	6-1	19	10	7	8	6
8	Bengals	5-2	12	3	10	14	8
9	Patriots	5-3	10	9	11	5	11
10	Steelers	6-2	20	6	13	13	10
11	Lions	5-2	9	16	9	7	9
12	Seahawks	4-4	2	12	8	9	14
13	Rams	4-4	1	7	12	12	13
14	Buccaneers	3-5	18	5	18	17	16
15	Packers	5-3	13	15	14	11	12
16	Browns	5-3	31	22	16	16	17
17	Giants	4-2-1	24	26	15	20	15
18	Panthers	3-4	23	17	17	22	18
19	Falcons	3-5	26	20	21	18	19
20	Ravens	4-4	5	19	19	24	20
21	Raiders	4-4	29	25	20	15	24
22	Texans	2-5	7	14	22	26	23
23	Cardinals	3-5	30	21	24	23	21
24	Cowboys	3-5	15	18	23	25	22
25	Commanders	2-4-1	25	24	25	21	27
26	Saints	2-5	21	29	26	19	26
27	Jets	2-6	28	23	28	28	25
28	Eagles	2-6	4	28	27	30	28
29	Colts	2-6	22	27	29	31	30
30	Dolphins	1-6	32	31	31	27	29
31	Titans	1-7	27	30	30	29	31
32	Chargers	0-7	8	32	32	32	32

*NFL.com’s Week 9 rankings were not up at build time; this column is Nate Davis’s USA Today rankings (Nov. 3). DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 8; ESPN and Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) are their Week 9 lists.

• 49ers (1): first in DVOA and on our offensive line list. Buckner returns for Raiders week.
• Bills (2): No. 1 for ESPN, Prisco, PFT and Fox. Our No. 2 offensive line, but the defensive line is 22nd.
• Jaguars (7): second in DVOA after the 42-7 win, with a three-game division lead. Losing DaVon Hamilton hurts the middle of a run defense already 32nd in run stop win rate.
• Broncos (8): 15 straight wins in one-score games. Our No. 3 defensive line.
• Bears (9): the Seattle win was their best game by DVOA (FTN). Seventh on our offensive line list; Simmons should lift a defensive line that is 20th.
• Chiefs (5): two straight losses. Fourth on our offensive line list, 28th on the defensive one; one elite line and one weak leaves them on results alone.
• Vikings (3): first loss. Their offense is 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff), and their offensive line is 16th.
• Bengals (6): third in DVOA but 15th on defense, and needed overtime against a 1-7 team.
• Patriots (10): up one. Both lines are in our top 8 (fifth on offense, eighth on defense).
• Steelers (12): up two. Both lines are in our top 8 (eighth on offense, sixth on defense), and they lead the AFC North at 6-2.
• Lions (11): beat Minnesota with a 230-yard run game. Sixth on our offensive line list, 26th in defensive DVOA.
• Seahawks (4): down eight. Three losses in four games, and a run game that managed 81 yards in Nelson’s debut.
• Rams (13): two straight wins, seventh in DVOA. Third on our offensive line list.
• Buccaneers (18): up four. Fifth in DVOA and first on defense, with two straight wins by a combined 59-13.
• Packers (17): 5-3 and up two, but held below their record: both lines are in our bottom 12 (31st on offense, 21st on defense).
• Browns (15): sacked eight times in Pittsburgh. Our worst offensive line and our fourth-best defensive line.
• Giants (19): on bye, still alone in first in the NFC East.
• Panthers (21): lead the NFC South at 3-4, but they lost Moton and Damien Lewis up front.
• Falcons (16): shut out in the rain, with Penix’s four interceptions. Down three.
• Ravens (14): down six. Jackson is headed to injured reserve, and Fagnano may start Thursday.
• Raiders (23): snapped a four-game skid. Their defense has allowed 30-plus five straight weeks (ESPN).
• Texans (22): on bye. 14th in DVOA, ahead of their 2-5 record.
• Cardinals (29): up six after the win in Dallas. Minshew is expected to start (Prisco).
• Cowboys (20): down four. Their defense is last in EPA per play (Barnwell) and their run game managed 93 yards.
• Commanders (25): first win in more than a month (AP). They lost Daron Payne for the season (Ringer Staff).
• Saints (26): on bye. Our offensive line is 18th; the defense is 30th in DVOA.
• Jets (27): down two. Scored on six straight drives and still lost.
• Eagles (24): down four. Six straight losses.
• Colts (28): down one. Jones was benched in Jacksonville days after the Nelson and Buckner trades.
• Dolphins (30): led New England 13-3 at halftime, then were shut out the rest of the way.
• Titans (31): took Cincinnati to overtime in their first game without Simmons.
• Chargers (32): 0-7, no touchdowns in two games, and last in DVOA.

Offensive Lines

San Francisco and Buffalo hold the top two spots. Detroit (14th to sixth) and Chicago (ninth to seventh) move in; Cincinnati and Dallas drop out.

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Status
1	49ers	64% (1)	75% (6)	3.2% (-2.8)	4.7 (+0.6)	Held
2	Bills	60% (3)	77% (2)	6.0% (-0.7)	4.8 (+0.7)	Held
3	Rams	53% (10)	77% (1)	3.5% (-2.2)	4.7 (+0.4)	Up 1
4	Chiefs	52% (12)	74% (10)	3.7% (-2.6)	5.1 (+0.7)	Down 1
5	Patriots	58% (5)	76% (3)	6.2% (-0.5)	4.1 (+0.1)	Held
6	Lions	54% (7)	74% (8)	6.1% (-1.1)	4.6 (+0.2)	New
7	Bears	59% (4)	73% (20)	6.5% (-0.3)	4.3 (+0.1)	New
8	Steelers	53% (9)	73% (17)	7.3% (+0.3)	4.9 (+0.4)	Held

Win rates are ESPN’s season figures (league rank in parentheses). Sack rate and yards per carry are measured against the average of the defenses each line has faced. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

• Out: Bengals (to ninth) and Cowboys (to 17th; 2.4 yards a carry against Arizona).
• First out: Bengals, Colts, Broncos. The Colts are 10th on the numbers but traded Quenton Nelson last week.
• Lions: ran for 230 yards against a Minnesota defense that had been allowing under 100 a game (AP).
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate; Caleb Williams was sacked once in Seattle.
• Bills: held at two with tackle Spencer Brown out Sunday. His status for Minnesota is the one to watch.
• Charting against results: Packers (last in pass block win rate, 2.9 yards a carry) at 5-3, and Browns (32nd; an 11.6% sack rate after eight sacks in Pittsburgh) at 5-3.
• Watch in Week 9: Seattle’s line with Nelson at left guard; Carolina without Moton and Lewis against Denver’s No. 3 defensive line.

Full order

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Last week
1	49ers	64% (1)	75% (6)	3.2% (-2.8)	4.7 (+0.6)	1
2	Bills	60% (3)	77% (2)	6.0% (-0.7)	4.8 (+0.7)	2
3	Rams	53% (10)	77% (1)	3.5% (-2.2)	4.7 (+0.4)	4
4	Chiefs	52% (12)	74% (10)	3.7% (-2.6)	5.1 (+0.7)	3
5	Patriots	58% (5)	76% (3)	6.2% (-0.5)	4.1 (+0.1)	5
6	Lions	54% (7)	74% (8)	6.1% (-1.1)	4.6 (+0.2)	14
7	Bears	59% (4)	73% (20)	6.5% (-0.3)	4.3 (+0.1)	9
8	Steelers	53% (9)	73% (17)	7.3% (+0.3)	4.9 (+0.4)	8
9	Bengals	46% (25)	75% (5)	4.6% (-1.8)	3.7 (-0.1)	6
10	Colts	50% (15)	75% (7)	7.8% (+0.9)	4.1 (+0.3)	12
11	Broncos	47% (21)	74% (11)	3.8% (-1.5)	3.8 (0.0)	16
12	Falcons	48% (19)	73% (18)	6.6% (-0.1)	4.6 (+0.6)	10
13	Raiders	63% (2)	73% (15)	3.6% (-2.2)	3.0 (-1.0)	15
14	Buccaneers	52% (13)	73% (21)	10.0% (+2.7)	5.1 (+0.6)	13
15	Jaguars	46% (24)	74% (12)	6.1% (-0.9)	4.3 (-0.1)	11
16	Vikings	53% (11)	76% (4)	9.8% (+3.0)	4.0 (-0.2)	19
17	Cowboys	53% (8)	69% (31)	3.5% (-2.4)	3.8 (-0.3)	7
18	Saints	45% (27)	74% (13)	5.2% (-1.9)	3.5 (-0.8)	17
19	Giants	50% (17)	73% (14)	8.0% (+1.6)	4.1 (-0.2)	21
20	Seahawks	50% (16)	71% (28)	6.8% (+0.3)	3.9 (-0.1)	24
21	Jets	52% (14)	72% (22)	8.8% (+1.7)	4.1 (-0.2)	26
22	Ravens	47% (21)	73% (19)	8.8% (+2.1)	4.6 (+0.1)	18
23	Commanders	57% (6)	68% (32)	6.5% (+1.4)	4.6 (+0.3)	23
24	Titans	40% (29)	71% (27)	5.0% (-1.5)	4.2 (-0.2)	27
25	Dolphins	47% (20)	71% (26)	10.3% (+3.0)	4.4 (+0.3)	20
26	Panthers	47% (23)	70% (30)	7.7% (+1.2)	4.2 (0.0)	22
27	Texans	46% (26)	72% (23)	5.7% (-0.4)	3.6 (-0.9)	28
28	Cardinals	35% (31)	71% (29)	5.7% (-0.1)	4.2 (0.0)	32
29	Eagles	48% (18)	71% (24)	7.9% (+1.9)	3.8 (-0.4)	25
30	Chargers	39% (30)	74% (9)	9.7% (+3.9)	4.0 (-0.1)	29
31	Packers	32% (32)	73% (16)	4.3% (-2.8)	2.9 (-1.5)	31
32	Browns	43% (28)	71% (24)	11.6% (+4.9)	3.9 (+0.1)	30

Defensive Lines

Seattle and Minnesota stay one and two. Denver climbs five spots to third, and Pittsburgh (15th to sixth) and New England (14th to eighth) move in; Atlanta and Baltimore drop out.

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Def. DVOA	Status
1	Seahawks	58% (4)	31% (9)	6.8% (+1.1)	3.5 (-0.8)	-19.5% (2)	Held
2	Vikings	63% (1)	29% (23)	11.0% (+3.8)	4.5 (+0.4)	-18.1% (3)	Held
3	Broncos	55% (6)	31% (10)	7.0% (+1.7)	4.5 (0.0)	-7.6% (10)	Up 5
4	Browns	53% (9)	34% (1)	7.4% (-0.2)	4.7 (+0.1)	-5.4% (12)	Down 1
5	Texans	49% (21)	30% (11)	7.9% (+2.0)	3.8 (-0.3)	1.3% (17)	Held
6	Steelers	47% (25)	32% (5)	8.5% (+0.5)	3.6 (-0.5)	-12.5% (7)	New
7	Chargers	48% (22)	32% (4)	5.8% (+1.0)	4.1 (-0.1)	3.1% (18)	Down 1
8	Patriots	52% (11)	29% (16)	7.9% (+1.0)	3.8 (-0.4)	-7.1% (11)	New

Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 8 (negative is better).

• Out: Falcons (to ninth; gave up 324 rushing yards in Tampa) and Ravens (to 12th).
• First out: Falcons, Buccaneers (first in defensive DVOA), Lions.
• Steelers: eight sacks of Watson; they lead the league with 26 (Prisco).
• Broncos: two sacks of Mahomes in the final three minutes, including the one that ended the game.
• Browns: held at fourth on the numbers. Maliek Collins hurt his elbow; watch his status.
• 49ers: 13th on the numbers with Nick Bosa still out. Buckner plays his first game back Sunday; we’ll judge them after it.
• Bears: 20th, with one game of Simmons. Same approach: one game is not enough to move them.
• Jaguars: 19th and without DaVon Hamilton, but fifth in defensive DVOA.
• Giants: 18th on the numbers, second in pass rush win rate. Still not restored on win rate alone after the Burns injury.

Full order

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Def. DVOA	Last week
1	Seahawks	58% (4)	31% (9)	6.8% (+1.1)	3.5 (-0.8)	-19.5% (2)	1
2	Vikings	63% (1)	29% (23)	11.0% (+3.8)	4.5 (+0.4)	-18.1% (3)	2
3	Broncos	55% (6)	31% (10)	7.0% (+1.7)	4.5 (0.0)	-7.6% (10)	8
4	Browns	53% (9)	34% (1)	7.4% (-0.2)	4.7 (+0.1)	-5.4% (12)	3
5	Texans	49% (21)	30% (11)	7.9% (+2.0)	3.8 (-0.3)	1.3% (17)	5
6	Steelers	47% (25)	32% (5)	8.5% (+0.5)	3.6 (-0.5)	-12.5% (7)	15
7	Chargers	48% (22)	32% (4)	5.8% (+1.0)	4.1 (-0.1)	3.1% (18)	6
8	Patriots	52% (11)	29% (16)	7.9% (+1.0)	3.8 (-0.4)	-7.1% (11)	14
9	Falcons	53% (10)	33% (3)	5.9% (-0.8)	4.3 (+0.1)	-8.2% (9)	4
10	Buccaneers	54% (8)	31% (7)	5.6% (-1.4)	3.6 (-0.4)	-22.2% (1)	11
11	Lions	59% (3)	28% (24)	7.7% (+0.9)	4.1 (+0.2)	10.1% (26)	9
12	Ravens	52% (13)	30% (12)	6.1% (-0.2)	3.8 (-0.3)	-0.4% (14)	7
13	49ers	49% (20)	29% (22)	5.7% (-0.5)	3.5 (-0.8)	-9.1% (8)	10
14	Cardinals	52% (14)	29% (18)	7.3% (+1.7)	4.3 (+0.1)	8.4% (25)	20
15	Rams	52% (12)	33% (2)	4.4% (-1.6)	4.0 (0.0)	-13.8% (6)	13
16	Bengals	50% (17)	31% (8)	8.7% (+1.1)	4.8 (+0.4)	0.0% (15)	12
17	Commanders	50% (18)	29% (15)	5.9% (-0.5)	3.9 (-0.2)	5.5% (22)	21
18	Giants	61% (2)	29% (20)	3.9% (-1.1)	4.8 (+0.7)	5.3% (21)	18
19	Jaguars	55% (5)	25% (32)	5.8% (-1.0)	3.4 (-0.5)	-15.2% (5)	16
20	Bears	50% (16)	27% (26)	8.8% (+1.5)	4.4 (+0.5)	0.9% (16)	17
21	Packers	45% (29)	27% (27)	7.2% (-0.2)	3.9 (-0.4)	-15.7% (4)	28
22	Bills	45% (26)	29% (19)	5.3% (-0.9)	3.9 (-0.2)	4.5% (20)	26
23	Saints	50% (15)	29% (17)	7.3% (+0.1)	4.8 (+0.6)	16.9% (30)	23
24	Eagles	43% (31)	32% (6)	3.5% (-2.1)	4.3 (0.0)	7.5% (23)	22
25	Jets	47% (24)	26% (31)	7.7% (+1.0)	4.0 (0.0)	8.3% (24)	19
26	Titans	45% (28)	30% (13)	6.8% (-1.1)	4.2 (+0.2)	20.5% (32)	24
27	Dolphins	50% (19)	26% (30)	4.4% (-1.3)	3.8 (-0.3)	13.3% (28)	27
28	Chiefs	48% (23)	29% (14)	3.6% (-3.0)	3.5 (-0.3)	-0.6% (13)	25
29	Panthers	54% (7)	28% (25)	4.4% (-3.2)	4.8 (+0.7)	4.3% (19)	30
30	Colts	40% (32)	27% (28)	6.5% (-0.1)	4.9 (+0.5)	10.1% (27)	32
31	Raiders	45% (27)	26% (29)	6.6% (-0.1)	5.1 (+0.8)	17.1% (31)	29
32	Cowboys	43% (30)	29% (21)	5.4% (-1.7)	5.0 (+0.9)	15.5% (29)	31

Win Totals

Five of the six calls most likely to move did move. Denver now shares the AFC West projection with Kansas City, Detroit closed within a game of Minnesota, and Chicago pulled level with the Vikings. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 120 wins and the tie already banked.

Division	Projections
AFC East	Bills 12-5, Patriots 10-7, Jets 5-12, Dolphins 3-14
AFC North	Bengals 11-6, Steelers 11-6, Browns 9-8, Ravens 8-9
AFC South	Jaguars 12-5, Texans 8-9, Colts 5-12, Titans 4-13
AFC West	Chiefs 11-6, Broncos 11-6, Raiders 7-10, Chargers 3-14
NFC East	Giants 9-7-1, Cowboys 8-9, Commanders 6-10-1, Eagles 5-12
NFC North	Vikings 12-5, Bears 12-5, Lions 11-6, Packers 10-7
NFC South	Panthers 8-9, Buccaneers 8-9, Falcons 7-10, Saints 6-11
NFC West	49ers 13-4, Seahawks 10-7, Rams 9-8, Cardinals 7-10

• AFC seeds: Bills and Jaguars, then the AFC North and AFC West winners; wild cards are the two division runners-up and the Patriots. First out: the Browns.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, then the NFC North winner, Giants and the NFC South winner; wild cards are the NFC North runner-up, the Lions, and the Packers or Seahawks. First out: whichever of Green Bay and Seattle misses.
• Ties not projected: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the AFC top seed; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for the AFC North; Kansas City and Denver for the AFC West; Minnesota and Chicago for the NFC North; Carolina and Tampa Bay for the NFC South; Green Bay and Seattle for the last NFC spot.
• Kansas City reversal: first team out in August; now 11-6 and tied with Denver for the AFC West after two straight losses.
• What moved in Week 8: up one each, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Lions, Broncos, Commanders, Bears, Steelers (Jackson’s injury; they play Baltimore twice) and Jaguars; down one each, Panthers, Falcons, Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens and Colts.
• Ravens: 8-9 assumes Jackson misses about a month; it moves if his timeline does.

Calls most likely to move after Week 9: Bills 12-5 at Vikings 12-5 (Monday); Jaguars 12-5 at Ravens 8-9 (Thursday); Packers 10-7 at Patriots 10-7; Buccaneers 8-9 at Bears 12-5 (Sunday night); Broncos 11-6 at Panthers 8-9; Giants 9-7-1 at Eagles 5-12.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen has played the best through eight weeks. This checkpoint covers Weeks 5 through 8, and the list ranks play this season, not reputation. How we tier the starters on talent follows the list.

Who has played the best through Week 8

BSL	Quarterback	QBR (rank)	NFL.com Index	CBS	Sando (Aug.)
1	Josh Allen, Bills	77.0 (3)	1	2	T-2
2	Joe Burrow, Bengals	77.0 (4)	3	4	4
3	Brock Purdy, 49ers	79.6 (1)	5	3	T-11
4	Caleb Williams, Bears	78.9 (2)	2	6	T-11
5	Jared Goff, Lions	63.0 (13)	6	1	T-8
6	Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars	64.6 (9)	7	5	16
7	Drake Maye, Patriots	76.4 (5)	8	8	T-8
8	Dak Prescott, Cowboys	76.1 (6)	9	9	7

QBR is ESPN’s season Total QBR. The NFL.com QB Index (Nick Shook) and the CBS Sports QB Power Rankings are both from Oct. 28, before the Week 8 games. Mike Sando’s QB Tiers for The Athletic are the preseason edition from Aug. 4, the only one this season.

• Allen: led the league in EPA per dropback and total touchdowns entering Week 8 (CBS), then threw for 289 yards and accounted for three touchdowns against Baltimore.
• Burrow: 462 yards and six total touchdowns Sunday. The three interceptions keep him behind Allen.
• Purdy: first in QBR, while playing without as many as six receivers.
• Williams: no turnovers in his three games back. The shortest sample on the list.
• Goff: opened the season with 223 throws without an interception, the most through six games in NFL history (CBS). QBR has him 13th; the rest of the evidence has him higher.
• Lawrence: 14 touchdown passes in six games, then three more on 14 throws against Indianapolis.
• Maye: 14 total touchdowns in October, and Sunday’s win came without A.J. Brown.
• Prescott: sixth in QBR, but held under 200 yards in Sunday’s loss.
• First out: C.J. Stroud (seventh in QBR, fourth in the Index, 15th at CBS), then Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love.
• Lamar Jackson is off this list after playing one snap since Week 4; he is headed to injured reserve after thumb surgery.

How we tier the starters

This is our read on talent and body of work, not this season alone. The season can move a quarterback one tier at a four-week checkpoint, and four moved at this one.

• Elite (the reason you win): Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson (injured reserve)
• Excellent: Prescott, Goff, Love, Purdy, Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Maye, Stafford
• Can Win With: Herbert, Stroud, Nix, Cousins, Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Young
• Below Average: Mayfield, Rodgers, Penix, Shough, Murray, Watson
• Bad (a reason you lose): Geno Smith, Ward, Willis, Daniel Jones
• Maye up to Excellent: his form held for the whole stretch, and he has produced without his top receiver.
• Stafford down to Excellent: he was the MVP last season, but he has thrown for under 225 yards in three straight games and ranks 12th or 13th on every in-season list.
• Herbert down to Can Win With: everyone agrees on the talent. His line and supporting cast have been poor, but a quarterback of his ability should lift the players around him, and he has thrown an interception in all seven games.
• Jones down to Bad: benched in the fourth quarter in Jacksonville and 29th in QBR.
• Love above Purdy: Love has more talent; Purdy has run Kyle Shanahan’s system as well as anyone.
• Not tiered: Jalen Hurts (out for the season) and the replacement starters, J.J. McCarthy, Tanner McKee, Gardner Minshew and, if he replaces Jones, Anthony Richardson, until they have played a full checkpoint.

Week 9 Preview

Fifteen games, starting Thursday in Baltimore and including Cincinnati and Atlanta in Madrid. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye.

Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video)

Line: Jaguars -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 80.9%

Key to the Game: Baltimore’s quarterback. Jackson is headed to injured reserve and Huntley is awaiting an MRI on his toe, so undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano will get his first start on four days’ rest. Baltimore Jacksonville has its own short-week problem in the middle, without nose tackle DaVon Hamilton.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network)

Line: Bengals -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Bengals 77.3%

Key to the Game: whether Michael Penix Jr.’s four interceptions in the rain were a one-off. Atlanta had scored the most points per game in the league since he returned in Week 3 (ESPN). Cincinnati’s defense is 15th in defensive DVOA and may be without cornerback DJ Turner II.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Browns at Saints (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Saints -2.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Saints 62.6%

Key to the Game: Cleveland’s defensive line, fourth on our list, against a Saints line that is 18th. The Browns’ O-line is 32nd after eight sacks in Pittsburgh, and New Orleans comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Browns. Against the line and the model, with low confidence: Cleveland is 22nd in DVOA to New Orleans’ 29th, and its front should decide a low-scoring game.

Cowboys at Colts (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Cowboys -6, 51.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 61.2%

Key to the Game: an Indianapolis team that traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner and benched Daniel Jones in the fourth quarter Sunday, against a Dallas defense that is last in EPA per play (Barnwell). Who starts at quarterback for the Colts, and whether Jonathan Taylor is still on the roster, both matter.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Broncos at Panthers (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Broncos -3, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 63.5%

Key to the Game: Denver’s defensive line, third on our list, against a Carolina line that is 26th and was without Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis on Thursday. Denver is 10 for 48 on third down over its last four games (AP), all wins.

Our Pick: Broncos.

Lions at Dolphins (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Lions -7, 50.5 · ESPN: Lions 77.7%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s injuries on defense. Linebacker Jack Campbell went to a hospital with a neck injury, and Brian Branch, DJ Wonnum and D.J. Reed were also hurt Sunday. Miami’s run game struggled without left guard Kadyn Proctor.

Our Pick: Lions.

Rams at Commanders (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 72.5%

Key to the Game: the Rams’ offensive line, third on our list, against a Washington front without Daron Payne. Matthew Stafford has thrown for under 225 yards in three straight games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Giants at Eagles (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Giants -3.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Giants 54.0%

Key to the Game: J.J. McCarthy’s second start after a bye, against an Eagles defense that has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game (Fox). Philadelphia has lost six straight.

Our Pick: Giants. Low confidence: a road division game for a quarterback with one start for this team.

Jets at Chiefs (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Chiefs -9.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 80.4%

Key to the Game: Kansas City’s run game, with Kenneth Walker III at 3.0 yards a carry over two straight losses (CBS), against a Jets run defense that has been 31st since Week 3 (ESPN). Braelon Allen has three 100-yard games for New York.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Texans at Chargers (4:05 p.m.)

Line: Texans -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Texans 61.6%

Key to the Game: a Chargers offense that has gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown, behind our 30th-ranked line, against Houston’s No. 5 defensive line off a bye.

Our Pick: Texans.

Cardinals at Seahawks (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: Seahawks -11.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 81.8%

Key to the Game: Arizona’s health. Minshew is expected to start (Prisco), Jeremiyah Love re-injured his ankle and Bam Knight left with a concussion. Seattle needs its run game, 81 yards on Monday, to show up behind Quenton Nelson.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Packers at Patriots (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: Patriots -3, 46.5 · ESPN: Patriots 57.2%

Key to the Game: New England has both lines in our top 8; Green Bay’s offensive line is 31st and its run game is the league’s worst. Micah Parsons is practicing (Prisco), and A.J. Brown’s knee is the Patriots’ question.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Raiders at 49ers (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: 49ers -10, 51.5 · ESPN: 49ers 84.3%

Key to the Game: DeForest Buckner’s first game back in San Francisco, against a Raiders defense that has allowed 30-plus points five straight weeks (ESPN) and is 31st on our defensive line list.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Buccaneers at Bears (Sunday night, 8:20 p.m., NBC)

Line: Bears -4.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Bears 59.8%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, 582 yards over two weeks, against a Chicago front 26th in run stop win rate that lost Grady Jarrett to a groin injury Monday. The Buccaneers are fifth in DVOA, the Bears 13th.

Our Pick: Bears.

Bills at Vikings (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC)

Line: Bills -3.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Bills 60.6%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, second on our list, against Josh Allen, and whether Kyler Murray’s offense, 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff), can score enough to matter.

Our Pick: Bills.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Sacks picked the winners. The team with more sacks won 10 of the 14 games. The exceptions were Tampa Bay, which threw three passes, plus Arizona, Detroit and Cincinnati; two of those needed overtime.
2. Five teams won after trailing by 10 or more: Arizona (down 17-3), Cincinnati (13-0), Denver (24-13), New England (13-3) and Washington (10-0). The Raiders also came back from nine down at halftime.
3. The run game still mattered. The team with more rushing yards won 10 of 14, from Tampa Bay’s 324 to Detroit’s 230 against the league’s best defense by points allowed.