’25 Seemingly Over Before Memorial Day; Thoughts On ’26

For the second time in a week, the Orioles have been swept by the Minnesota Twins.
The Orioles are 11 games under .500 on May 15th.
They entered today 25th in Runs Scored, and 27th in ERA.

Ouch.

It’s a horribly disappointing year.
Give me a quick October exit anytime over irrelevance before Memorial Day.

I expect that ’26 team will be rebound, and believe they can be a true contender.
Even if that happens, that won’t completely erase the distaste from this year.
You don’t get this year back, and that is hard to take.

Pretty much full attention goes to ’26.

With ’26, What Do We Know?

Gunnar is the SS
Cowser is the LF (probably, there is a 1% chance he’s the CF)
Holliday is the 2nd
Westburg is the 3rd
Rutschman is the C

O’Neill is likely back
1st / DH / RF is some form of Mountcastle, Kjerstad, Mayo (plus Rutschman’s time at DH).

O’Hearn is a Free Agent after this year
Mullins is a Free Agent after this year

Bradish is currently expected back in August ’25, so you obviously expect him available for ’26.
Rodriguez is currently expected to pitch in ’25, so you obviously expect him available for ’26 (how available TBD).

Eflin is a Free Agent after this year.

Kremer is not a Free Agent until 28.
Sugano is a Free Agent after this year.
Gibson is a Free Agent after this year.
Morton is a Free Agent after this year.

Povich, Young, T. Wells; each of them figure to get some ML starts.  How many?

Questions: 

1) Is Mullins back for ’26? Do they want him back?
2) If Mullins is gone, will they be comfortable going with Bradfield?
2a) Would they use Cowser in CF, and have O”Neill and Kjerstad both on the corners?
3) If they don’t resign Eflin, can they find another 3rd or better starter to team with Bradish and Rodriguez?
4) How do Rodriguez and Bradish finish ’25? How many starts? What’s their performance?
5) Let’s say they stay healthy in ’26, how many innings can you expect from Bradish and Rodriguez?
6) When is Basallo up? He’s getting time at C, DH, 1st? How does that factor overall?
7) Westburg and Cowser get back by June ’25… do they perform at AS levels the rest of the year?
8) Does Rutschman wake up?
9) Do Kjerstad and Mayo perform in the time they get the rest of ’25?
10) Does Holliday continue to take steps forward?
11) Does Henderson perform at MVP level the rest of ’25?
12) Does O’Neill stay relatively healthy the rest of ’25? Does he perform?

The O’s entered ’25 with a team salary of $163M, good for about 15th overall.
What are the O’s willing to take take their salary to in ’26?

Are there Free Agent’s to target?

Unless the O’s suddenly get scorching hot; they’ll probably be looking to sell at the Trading Deadline.
If the O’s trade Efin, Sugano, Mullins, O’Hearn, and Mountcastle; what do they get back that can contribute in ’26?

I’m fully confident Orioles General Manager Mike Elias will be back for ’26.
It’s harder to imagine Orioles Manager Brandon Hyde returning.