3 Up, 3 Down – 8/3/2020

Every week that we have baseball this season, and enjoy every single one because it could disappear at any given moment, I will be taking note of the three hottest Orioles and the three coldest.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Hanser Alberto – .429/.459/.686 (1.145), 7 R, 3 doubles, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 35 AB

When I did this exercise last year Alberto consistently showed up in this category and I would always warn readers that it wasn’t likely to last due to his very low hard hit percentage and exit velocity when compared to his peers. Well he was able to keep it up for an entire season in 2019 and has come out of the gates in 2020 doing the same thing. The analytical side of me still says its a matter of time before he falls back down to earth because he’s still only in the 18^th percentile in exit velocity and the 13^th percentile in hard hit percentage. But at the same time the guy is just so fun to watch, mostly because you can tell he is having so much fun himself playing the game. And sometimes there are anomalies that are able to do something that the stats can’t pick up. Maybe Alberto is in that category but at the very least he provides good defense at second base while giving us a fun story to watch unfold during the early stages of our rebuild.

Rio Ruiz – .318/.385/.727 (1.112), 3 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, 22 AB

Towards the end of last season after he was sent down to AAA Norfolk for a brief period, Ruiz returned with a revamped approach that showed some promising results. In the offseason he worked at a hitting academy to continue to refine his stance and swing. He had a great spring training before the shut down and continued that into summer camp. All reports were that he was hitting the ball with more authority and based on that I picked him to lead the team in homeruns on episode 11 of On the Verge. After eight games that prediction is looking good as he leads the team in dingers despite only having 22 at bats on the young season. All of his advanced metrics are promising as well, especially his barrel percentage which puts him in the top 9% of the league. He was a late scratch from Sunday’s game due to some shoulder soreness so hopefully he can bounce back from that quickly and continue to make his case as a more long term piece for the club.

Jose Iglesias – .526/.526/.789 (1.316), 2 R, 5 doubles, 3 RBI, 19 AB

You see it being mocked all over the internet that Iglesias was the Orioles “big” free agent acquisition of the winter. To me it was a smart cheap signing that could stabilize the defense at the most important position on the infield for a year or two. Whatever he can give the team with the bat is a bonus but I get it, its easy to pile on the Orioles while they’re one of the worst teams in the sport and a defense first non-slugger is batting third for them. Iglesias didn’t get the memo as he has come out of the gate on fire, swinging at and hitting everything thrown in the general vicinity of home plate. Hes dealt with a calf strain over the past few games but has still managed to make the most of a few at bats while hobbled. More than 25% of his at bats have resulted in doubles. Clearly the guy will slow down at some point but who knows, with a 60 game season somebody has to make a run at a .400 batting average right?

3 Down

Austin Hays – .100/.200/.100 (.300), 3 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 30 AB

Hays was the one position player on the team that most fans came into the season excited to see how they perform. A top 10 prospect in the system for quite some time finally graduated from the prospect ranks a few games into the season. Defensively it looks like he can handle center field. Hes in the top quarter of the league in sprint speed and is in the top 14% when it comes to outs above average while roaming the outfield. The struggle has come with the bat. During the opening series in Boston he hit a few hard line drives that Red Sox outfielders made great plays on. That bad luck might have caused him to press a little because his numbers have continued to decline like the United States wishes COVID-19 cases would. The eyeball test plus his advanced metrics hanging around the 50^th percentile in most cases say to me that it is just a blip on the radar that looks much worse since its how he is starting the season. I haven’t lost faith that he can be the starting center fielder for the foreseeable future over 30 at bats. Cedric Mullins he is not.

John Means – 0-0, 19.31 ERA, 2.1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K, 1.29 WHIP

The only thing I didn’t like about last year’s Oriole representative at the all-star game’s first start of the season were the results. Means started the season on the IL due to some dead arm (or arm fatigue to put it less vividly) which is a thing starting pitchers sometimes deal with, usually in spring training. You could tell he was a bit rusty and maybe a little antsy to get out there and show off the new tools he added in the offseason. Means gave up five runs in the first inning due to a mix of bad luck and poor command. He “hit” Aaron Judge with a pitch that barely grazed his jersey and then famous Oriole killer Gleyber Torres stuck his elbow out over the plate to take one for the team. You give the Yankees offense enough chances and they’ll make you pay, which they did. He settled down after that but couldn’t make it out of the third inning because he still needs to build up his pitch count. Last year his fastball was sitting 90-92 to go along with a changeup (his best pitch) and a slurvy slider that he didn’t throw too often most nights. Against New York he was hitting 96 on the radar gun with relative consistency and snapping off a nice new curveball. If anything his changeup was a little flat. With his improved stuff I’m more confident than ever that he can be a middle of the rotation starter on a contending team.

Cody Carroll – 0-0, 163.64 ERA, 0.1 IP, 4 BB, 1 K, 21.21 WHIP

With Rio Ruiz above I talked about a great prediction I made before the season started. Now is the time where I talk about the opposite. On the podcast we each picked a surprise breakout player for the season and interestingly enough each chose a relief pitcher. Cody Carroll was my pick… His high 90’s fastball and impressive spring could make him a legitimate late inning reliever. Or his complete lack of control could lead to him to only get one out over two appearances while allowing six runs, walking four, hitting a batter, and being the first player the Orioles demoted back to the secondary roster in Bowie. The fastball is good. The results in his minor league career are good. He just has to learn how to settle down and locate his pitches at the major league level. Its not like the fans were getting him too amped up…