3 Strikes: Change For Certainty

We crave certainty; we like knowing–or believing that we know–what’s coming up next. Change scares most people. While most people put up the pretense of liking change, most would rather settle in to the expected. Change in sports is even scarier. Change in sports usually means that there has been an unsuccessful period that necessitated such “drastic” measures.

The American League East had been the one division in Major League Baseball where stability was valued. Just two winters ago, the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were manned by long time organization men. While the teams on the field may have changed, the men making the decisions had been around, either as assistants or the actual guy in the captain’s chair for a long time. The Orioles’ General Manager, Dan Duquette, was the newbie to the division ranks of General Managers. In trying to play catch up with the rest of the stable division, with each team executing a specific plan, Duquette’s job was not only to improve the team, but to give the Orioles a sense of stability.

{Discuss the AL East and Matt Wieters on the BSL Boards}

Forward to present day–just two winters later–and Duquette is now the second most tenured General Manager in the American League East. That may seem like a minor detail, a mere footnote that is meaningless. But, a change in leadership is generally followed by a swift change in direction or, at the very least, a swift change in process. The American League East that has existed for the past half decade or so is no longer around. The difference with this change is that the organizations making the changes–the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays–have all had success in recent years.

Sure, the stars and uniforms are the same, but even the early hot stove season has already given some clues that the new men in charge are aggressive and willing to make bold moves, even if it flies against everything the organization had done in the previous, successful regime. If week one of the hot stove season was any indication, the American League East will be quite different once teams start playing in April.

And, if the early moves and rumors are a sign of things to come, each AL East team is looking for the same thing: certainty.

Dombrowski Era begins with Kimbrel

It didn’t take Dave Dombrowski long to put his stamp on the Boston Red Sox. The previous two Red Sox regimes–Epstein and Cherrington–had walked the fine line of spending premium dollar on big name free agents while still prioritizing the farm system. Dombrowski just finished a long, successful tenure as the GM of the Detroit Tigers. He oversaw the rebuild from basement dweller to perennial powerhouse. Dombrowski’s strategy was not to build from within. Instead, he used the Tigers’ young assets, both prospects and Major League talent, to acquire players like Miguel Cabrera, David Price, Max Scherzer, Yoenis Cespedes, and Anibal Sanchez. It may be incorrect to label Dombrowski as one who ignores system development, but it is correct to label him as a General Manager who will make a big trade.

Landing All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel in a deal that saw Dombrowski send off prospects Logan Allen, Carlos Asuaje, Javier Guerra, and Manuel Margot is the typical Dave Dombrowski move. He brings in a star who brings a high degree of certainty to the roster. The trade has been met with much negativity towards Dombrowski for a couple of reasons. First, he gives up four of the Red Sox top 30 prospects in an era when prospects are valued highly. Secondly, he sends those four prospects for a closer, a position that is generally regarded as an unwise position to spend lavishly.

But, this is what Dombrowski does. He acquires certainty. Over the past five seasons, Kimbrel has averaged 66 innings, 37 hits allowed, 23 walks, and 105 strikeouts. That has come with a 1.77 ERA, a 1.66 FIP, and a swing and miss rate with pitches in the strike zone of an absurd 25 percent. Dombrowski has also followed the sport’s new way of getting through games and mitigating the problem of a lack of quality starting pitchers; he’s shortened games. With Kimbrel at the closer spot and former closer Koji Uehara as a setup man, the Red Sox are one reliever away from being able to match the power bullpens of baseball.

There is no doubt that Dave Dombrowski gave up a ton of talented prospects. But, there’s no guarantee that those prospects would make it at the Major League level. Kimbrel is already one of the best in the sport. After two consecutive last place finishes, a talented offensive roster, and (still) a deep farm system, the Red Sox are in “win-now” mode. There will be more moves from the new man in Boston. While the long term may be impacted by his moves, there is no doubting that Dave Dombrowski is gearing up for a 2016 pennant run.

Rays Revamp

Tampa Bay Rays General Manager Matt Silverman is in his second year in the big chair for the Rays. Despite severe budget restraints for his first season, Silverman held true to his predecessor’s process and reeled in unheralded players such as Erasmo Ramirez, John Jaso, Nick Franklin, and Nate Karns. With the Rays’ system and the imports, the franchise won 80 games under first year Manager Kevin Cash.

Silverman couldn’t even wait for this year’s hot stove to get started as he made an early trade with the Seattle Mariners, acquiring Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Danny Farquhar for a package of Nate Karns, C.J. Riefenhauser, and Boog Powell. It seems a bit strange to see the Rays deal two young prospects in Riefenhauser and Powell as the organization has long held on to its prospects. And, Karns is coming off a successful season of 147 innings, 132 hits allowed, 56 walks, and 156 strikeouts to go with a 3.67 ERA. Riefenhauser looks to be a left handed specialist, but Powell was the Rays’ 13th rated prospect and one who put up a .295/.385/.392 batting line between double and triple-A.

The deals seems strange for the Rays, but they get immediate upgrades for their 2016 lineup. Morrison will be their regular designated hitter. Miller will likely get a look as the starting shortstop or fill the Ben Zobrist role. And, Farquhar will hope to be the latest in Rays’ relief reclamation projects. While none of the three provide the certainty that Kimbrel does for the Red Sox, all three players have succeeded at various points in the Major League careers. Morrison has hit double digit home runs in four of the last five seasons. Since arriving to the Majors in 2010, Morrison has averaged .246/.326/.416 with 18 doubles and 12 home runs in an average of 101 games. Against right handed pitchers, he is a career .246/.330/.438 hitter. While not star numbers, Morrison has already proved he can hit for some power at the Major League level. And, he just turned 28 years old. There’s still a bit of ceiling for him.

Brad Miller should be the best player acquired in the deal. After initially struggling for the Mariners, Miller settled in as a utility man for the Mariners last season, hitting .258/.329/.402 with 22 doubles, 4 triples, 11 home runs, and 13 stolen bases. He played all three outfield positions as well as second and third base in addition to shortstop. At just 26 years old, Miller will be entering his fourth big league season coming off a strong finish to his season. He hit .301/.360/.441 after August 1st. Miller brings offensive upside and the ability to play multiple positions, something that is key for the budget conscious Rays.

There is a bit of certainty in this deal for the Rays. The club plugs three roster slots with three players on inexpensive deals, a realistic chance to improve on their respective 2015 seasons, and give the Rays multiple options not only on the field in 2015, but for the rest of the winter months. Because Miller and Morrison can play a couple of positions, the Rays can make trades or sign players with the knowledge of their experienced flexibility. It’s not star certainty that a Kimbrel brings, but with the Rays’ process, this deal gives them more certainty for 2016.

Yankees Add Depth, Perhaps More With Hicks

Anyone who grew up during the 1980’s in New York couldn’t have foreseen a day when the franchise was the most stable in the American League East. Yet, that’s exactly where the Yankees are heading into the 2016 season. Brian Cashman is firmly in control of the organization as it continues to mix high spending, farm development, and interesting trades. Cashman traded from a position of organizational depth when he sent backup catcher JR Murphy to the Minnesota Twins for centerfielder Aaron Hicks. 

Hicks, a 26 year old switch hitting outfielder, is coming off his most successful performance at the Major League level. While small sample size is definitely involved, Hicks was a highly touted prospect who didn’t live up to that billing during his first two seasons. But, there were signs of maturity, such as his .341 OBP in 2014. In 2015, he appeared in a career high 97 Major League games, batting .256/.323/.398 with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, and 13 stolen bases. As a centerfielder, Hicks compiled a +2 DRS and appeared in both corner spots as well. At just 26 years old, there is still plenty of ceiling for Hicks, who has hit southpaws quite well during his brief career, a clip of .272/.360/.447.

As their roster stands now, Hicks will be the fourth outfielder, a key spot considering the injury history of Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran. And, with his ability to hit southpaws so well, he can spot Ellsbury or left fielder Brett Gardner. While Hicks has been far from certain during his first three seasons, he has demonstrated enough of an improvement and a Minor League track record to be considered an upgrade over previous fourth outfielder, Chris Young. 

More importantly, Hicks give Brian Cashman a different type of certainty. Cashman can now discuss realistic trade options that involve either Gardner or Ellsbury. Moving one of them would not only bring back talent in other areas, but it could free up some salary. Hicks’ presence gives the Yankees the option of either having four Major League caliber outfielders or the ability to trade one of them to address other needs. 

The Orioles, Certainty, and Wieters

The Orioles don’t have many certainties heading into the winter. Manny Machado is definitely one of them, as are Adam Jones and Zach Britton. Perhaps relievers Brad Brach and Brian Matusz can be considered givens. Other than that, the Orioles are a roster filled with holes and question marks. They’ll hope JJ Hardy can rebound. They’ll hope Jonathan Schoop can continue to improve. They’ll hope Kevin Gausman can take a rotation spot and become their ace. And, they’ll hope that Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman can find some consistency. There are very few givens. 

Because of that, it isn’t the worst development that Matt Wieters took the qualifying offer to return in 2016 for the $15.8 million. Wieters, now heading into his age 30 season, will have a year to prove himself healthy enough to receive a long term contract after recovering from Tommy John Surgery and being limited to just 101 games over the past two seasons. 

Orioles’ fans can have reservations about having Wieters back at such a high price tag, especially since Caleb Joseph performed reasonably well last season, hitting .234/.299/.394 with 11 home runs in 100 games. Money aside, Wieters’ presence for 2016 makes the Orioles measurably better. For his career, the switch hitting catcher has put together a batting line of .258/.320/.423. While not the star numbers that many foreshadowed, Wieters ranks sixth in WAR value amongst catchers since 2009 (excluding catchers who moved to other positions during that time). Even during his injury-plagued 2014 and 2015, Wieters has compiled a .279/.325/.445 line, right around his career numbers. 

The moral of the story is that the Orioles are getting certainty by having Wieters back. Yes, a chunk of their payroll is taken up and it is a concern, given their recent spending history. But, who is to say that they would’ve spent that money landing a premium free agent? Where in their recent history have they demonstrated that ability? If the organization is going to spend on a big free agent–either their own Chris Davis or bring in someone else–they will do so regardless of Wieters’ one year contract. At the very least, the Orioles know what they are getting in Wieters.

They are getting a catcher who projects to hit around .250/.320/.420 and add 15 to 20 home runs. And, they can put Caleb Joseph in his more suited role of backup catcher. Because of the Wieters’ decision, the Orioles can cross off the catcher position as a certainty. With a roster so full of questions, another check is welcomed and much needed.