3 Strikes: The Process

One of the most used terms in today’s sports vernacular is “The Process”. Often mistaken for coach-speak, the term actually has more value than its overuse may indicate. Organizations with a clear process tend to do better for the long term. Otherwise, organizations live in the moment and experience brief windows of contention. The living in the moment is what gets organizations in trouble and sets them back. All of that is simplistic for sure. Yet, there are still teams that lack a clear process.

{Discuss Process and The Orioles on the BSL Boards}

The conundrum that most teams face is fan perception against what is oftentimes painful, yet necessary. Sometimes the process can be painful; it often requires patience and the one thing that fans forking over money don’t want to hear anything about–time. It usually takes time for an organization to develop its own talent, its own identity, and its own form of winning. Most of the time, it looks like the organization isn’t even trying to win. In the present, that looks to be true, but a long term winner requires a long marination period. That’s the catch for teams and fans.

If a fan base believes that a team isn’t trying, it will rebel in the only way it knows how; it won’t show up for the games. Obviously, the team is stuck in a difficult position as it must balance fan happiness–which is, of course, necessary as their spending money at the ballpark is a manifestation of happiness–and setting the team up for an extended run. Few teams can satisfy both; one usually gets neglected.

For Major League Baseball teams, the process can be completed differently. Because it is a sport without spending limits, teams can choose where to allocate resources. Of course, much of it is dependent on market size. The ability for each organization to build in a unique, sustainable way is present. The teams that grab onto to a model–any model–and follow through on the process normally prosper. So, it is more than coach-speak when Cubs Manager Joe Maddon speaks like this:

The Process is fearless. If you take care of the seconds, the minutes, the hours in a day take care of themselves.

It is about an organization having a belief in a plan and not being reactionary on a daily basis. A clear process and ultimate belief in that process is the only way to achieve long term success.

The Playoff Teams’ Plan

Normally, Major League Baseball follows every other major sport in terms of plans. One organization finds a successful model and everyone else tries to replicate it. But, as the culture of Major League Baseball has become more data driven, trying to replicate another team’s plan is becoming increasingly difficult. All teams, even the least analytical in the sport, are looking for the same things: power pitching and power bats who get on base. It’s a simple formula. But, the approach to getting there is what differs. The playoff teams illustrate just how unique an approach towards the same goal can be.

The Kansas City Royals are one win away from a second consecutive World Series appearance. The past two seasons have been nothing short of phenomenal as the Royals have a young, talented, dynamic offensive core, supported by a deep bullpen with some power arms.

Their success has more or less validated General Manager Dayton Moore’s process, as Moore presided over the organization that had nine consecutive losing seasons and, at various points, were the laughingstock of the League. During that time of Moore’s rebuild, he was often mocked by fans and media for the his belief in the process. The Royals were losing at a prodigious and embarrassing rate. All the while, Moore was collecting draft picks. The Royals’ system began to flourish. He asked fans to be patient as Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, and Mike Moustakas climbed their way through the system and found their equilibrium at the Major League level. He asked for patience as he sold off his best pitcher in Zack Greinke and acquired some unknown prospects in Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. The 90 loss seasons kept accumulating. Then, the process came to fruition. The offensive core developed. Moore built a deep bullpen with power arms. His young pitcher, Yordano Ventura, matured. Now, they are the best team in the American League. While the Royals aren’t the classic power team, they are a team that gets on base at a decent clip (7th in the American League), plays excellent defense (2nd in DRS), and has a power bullpen. Sticking to the process yielded all of this.

The Houston Astros followed a similar path. Jeff Luhnow presided over one of the quickest, yet dangerous rebuilds in Major League Baseball history. The Astros didn’t invest in the Major League club from 2011 through 2013. Luhnow sold off every viable trade chip and built up a farm system. It was a drastic step as the Major League club won 56, 55, and 51 games over those three seasons. The Major League Astros were a joke. Yet, Luhnow stuck to his process of building the farm system. He drafted Carlos Correa with the number one pick, a pick that was, at the time, slightly surprising. Lance McCullers and Vince Velasquez are two young power arms that should lead the rotation in coming years. With the influx of young talent, supported by some key acquisitions, the Astros were a playoff team this season, a year early than most experts predicted. The Astros are also a team that gets on at a decent rate (8th in the AL), hit a lot of home runs (2nd), play excellent defense (4th in DRS), and have a power rotation that elicits a ton of swings and misses. The organization’s commitment to a vision, even in the ugliest of times, looks like it has lead to a long period of success ahead.

The New York Mets also had a long rebuild. The rebuild effort was largely because of the Wilpon’s money issues, but the end result actually proves that teams can be developed without splashy free agent signings. General Manager Sandy Alderson targeted power pitching as the blueprint for the Mets’ future. Now, the Mets are on the cusp of representing the National League in the World Series on the power arms of Jacob DeGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. Their bullpen is anchored by hard throwing closer Jeurys Familia. Over the past six seasons, the Mets never won more than 79 games. While many clamored for them to spend money like a New York team, Sandy Alderson held steadfast on the developmental process. He resisted trading any of his pitching, even earlier this season when it looked like the Mets were desperate. Instead, he held on to his strength, while adding a few bats later in the season. Now, a 90 win season and a deep playoff run are the reward.They are a team with power bats (3rd in the NL in home runs) and power arms.

The Cubs went about it in a different way. Instead of the uncertainty of developing arms, Theo Epstein and company took the thin farm system and stocked it with power bats. Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo form a homegrown core that will anchor the lineup for the next decade. Epstein further bolstered the offense by signing Jorge Soler, trading for Addison Russell, and holding on to infielder Javier Baez. The offense slugged its way to 97 wins and an NLCS appearance. Now, the Cubs have a great lineup and will focus on acquiring pitching. It started last winter with Jon Lester. The organization will most assuredly be in the pitching market once again. In an era where power is more of a rare commodity, the Cubs have stockpiled a deep offense. Their five year run as a sub-.500 team was ended as this talent came up to the Major Leagues. That young talent hit the fifth most home runs in the National League, while the pitching staff led the league in strikeouts.

The East Process

The American League East contains five clubs that have all been in the playoffs in one of the past three seasons. It is the most competitive division in the sport, containing some of the most well-run organizations in all of sports. The Yankees and the Red Sox are two of the most dangerous teams in the sport, considering their payroll capabilities and their renewed focus on system development.

The Red Sox have finished in last place in each of the past two seasons, but during that time, they have spent money on international free agents, the free agent market, and have continued to focus on keeping and developing their prospects. And, they’ve resisted the urge to trade any of that young talent for a quick fix. Now, the club has an exciting outfield of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, and perhaps Rusney Castillo. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts made a big leap in his development last season, a year after a disappointing rookie campaign and the general clamoring from the fan base of wanting a “star” shortstop.. And, with former Orioles’ prospect Eduardo Rodriguez and 22 year old Henry Owens making successful Major League debuts in the rotation, the club’s process has yielded a younger roster that can be supplemented with additional payroll.

The Yankees are in the same situation. In a season in which they won the Wildcard, many wished for the Yankees to acquire an ace or a right handed bat. Either acquisition might have helped the club stave off the Blue Jays’ furious second half run. But, the Yankees resisted and held on to prospects Luis Severino, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Tyler Austin, and Gary Sanchez. With the Yankees a season away from shedding significant payroll and an improved farm system, the Yankees’ process of power bats and a power bullpen is still a strength. And, by holding onto resources, they are about to get younger and more dynamic. For the first time in decades, the Yankees identity is evolving towards developing talent from within, rather than trading it off.

The Blue Jays made all of the headlines with their deals at the trade deadline. But, a few things get lost in that flurry of moves. First, the Blue Jays clearly had a process. They’ve cultivated a power laden lineup, perhaps the best in the sport. While they didn’t develop the talent, the Jays acquired Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion before they became stars. They acquired Josh Donaldson quite cheaply. But, at the same time, they developed their system, finally yielding some power arms. Marcus Stroman has keyed their extended playoff run. Roberto Osuna is a power closer at 20 years old. The Blue Jays farm system may be the least impressive in the division, but they developed it enough in order to make their trades and make this run. While this is likely the most unstable way to build for the long term, the Blue Jays did have a process and followed it to the American League Championship Series. But, of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, the Blue Jays seem the least stable and the least set up for a long term run at being playoff contenders.

The Tampa Bay Rays have always been about the process of building through the draft and developing pitching. In a year when they lost their Manager and two of their best pitchers, they still won 80 games behind an offense that was 9th best in on base percentage and a pitching staff that compiled the fourth best ERA in the American League. Money will always be an obstacle for the Rays, but the organization has proven that their process of developing pitchers leads to success.

The Orioles’ Way?

All of that leads up to the big question in Baltimore. What, exactly, is the Orioles’ process? While the Orioles have won the most games of all the AL East teams over the past three seasons, the organization has failed in bringing any sort of stability. The first reaction is to say that they are a team that is based on power. It is true that the Orioles finished 3rd in the American League in home runs. But, the club had just three players that topped 20 home runs. Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones form a nice nucleus. However, Davis is a free agent and seems likely to get paid big money elsewhere, just like former Orioles’ slugger Nelson Cruz did last season. If (and when) Davis goes elsewhere, who is the power replacement? The answer looks to be someone like Steve Pearce, rather than any free agent signing. Certainly, there is nobody ready in the farm system.

Last season, the Orioles banked on bounceback seasons from Davis and Machado to make up for the loss of Nelson Cruz. Obviously, their faith was rewarded. However, with no viable option to replace Davis, the Orioles power will be downgraded for 2016. For a club that doesn’t run well or get on base (12th in the AL), the loss of power is potentially crippling.

That’s further complicated by the Orioles’ lack of a pitching focus. In 2014, the Orioles exploited their advantage of having a rotation that didn’t miss a start. Almost every member had a career season. This year, those career years were not repeated. To make matters worse, the organization seemed to hold back power pitcher Kevin Gausman, starting him out in the bullpen, inserting him the rotation, sending him to the Minors, and then having in pitch as a starter for the rest of the season. Unlike other top pitching prospects, Kevin Gausman hasn’t been developed at the Major League level. Of all the pitchers in the Orioles system, Gausman is the best hope to be an ace. Aside from Gausman, the only other pitchers who could project as above average are prospects Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy. Bundy, coming off of Tommy John Surgery, still has to come back and build strength. Some could point to the emergence of Mychal Givens out of the bullpen and Jonathan Schoop at second base as positive signs. Both players have talent, but neither project as cornerstone players.

So, what, exactly, is the Orioles’ process? It certainly isn’t power development as the system doesn’t have any high ceiling prospect close to Major League ready. It certainly isn’t power pitching, as the organization refuses to give its best young pitcher a permanent rotation spot. It certainly isn’t defense, as the club ranked 20th in the Major Leagues in Defensive Runs Saved. There is talent on the roster. Manny Machado is one of the five best players in the sport. Adam Jones is a top 20 player. Zach Britton is one of the best–and most underrated–closers in the sport. Brad Brach is an underrated reliever, as is Brian Matusz. But, outside of those players, what do the Orioles have as their identity?

With the well deserved reputation of frugalness during free agency, a lack of a farm system ready to produce talent, and several important players set to leave via free agency, the Orioles seemingly lack a clear process.

The only way for the Orioles to achieve any type of long term success is to go “all in” on one of two ways. The organization either has to spend to replenish (or keep) its home run power. And, it will have to import power starters. If that’s too much to ask from Peter Angelos, Dan Duquette must choose the long rebuild process in which he trades off every commodity other than Machado and Gausman, builds the system, and waits for the talent to reach the Major Leagues. That’s long and messy, but a lack of a process already caught up with the Orioles this season, as they missed the playoffs and finished with 81 wins. If Duquette continues with this model of second and third tier signings as a bandaid, it will only get worse.

When Duquette took over in the winter of 2011, he talked about rebuilding from within. Then, the Orioles surprised everyone, including Duquette and won 93 games. In order to make the playoffs, Duquette made some “win now” trades, departing from the development model. Since then, he’s been placing cheap, short term fixes in an effort to win. It almost got the club to the World Series in 2014. A year later, the outlook is bleak. Unless the Orioles commit to a vision and a process to fulfill that vision, they won’t have sustainability. If they don’t define themselves, one thing will be for certain. They’ll be defined as irrelevant.