3 Up, 3 Down – April 19, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Mariners and Rangers.

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3 Up

John Means – 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 12 IP, 4 BB, 14 K, 1.00 WHIP

Means lined up to receive two starts for the week and he made the most out of them. He started the first game of a doubleheader against the Mariners and got off to a rocky start, giving up three runs and two homers in the first couple innings. Those were the only troublesome innings he would have as he has proceeded to throw ten consecutive scoreless innings. He ended up going five innings in that first start and keeping the Orioles in the game even though they lost it in extra innings. In his second start against the Rangers on Sunday Means looked like the guy who shutout the Red Sox over seven innings on opening day. Because that’s exactly what he did in Texas except he allowed a few more baserunners and struck out a career high nine batters. He’s probably starting to relate to Jacob Degrom a little bit because the O’s wasted his excellent start, getting shut out and losing in extra innings once again. The great thing about the season Means is having so far is that when he is on, he is dominant. But when he hasn’t had his best stuff he has still found a way to limit the damage and keep the Orioles in the game.

Freddy Galvis – .381/.435/.762 (1.197), 7 R, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 21 AB

I was already ready to give up on Galvis after only two weeks as were most Orioles fans I’m sure. How much worse could Richie Martin be, especially after hitting a homerun in the first exhibition game at the alternate site. Galvis must’ve felt a disruption in the force himself because if you include the homerun he hit in his last at bat of the Seattle series he had a stretch of hitting 7-8 with three doubles, a triple, and that homerun before going 0-4 on Sunday. The most encouraging part is that he only has three strikeouts in his last 23 at bats. He was looking completely overmatched at the plate before that. He seems to be carrying that confidence with him into the field because all of a sudden his range seems to have increased. Especially in what has to be the best play of the season so far for the Orioles when he ranged up the middle into a slide and smoothly flipped the ball to Rio Ruiz who barehanded the ball and fired to first for the inning ending double play. Maybe he had been dealing with a nagging injury but he finally looks like the guy the Orioles expected to get when they signed him.

Paul Fry – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 0 BB, 5 K, 0.25 WHIP

Fry had a horrible spring training and following that up by allowing a run on three hits while only getting one out in his first appearance of the season against the Yankees. But since then he has pitched 6.1 consecutive scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk. He has arguably been the most valuable pitcher out of the bullpen for the first couple weeks of the season. His fastball velocity and spin rate are up from last season (seems to be a trend for quite a few of the Orioles pitchers, a good one), he even touched 96 mph on the radar gun for the first time in his career on Sunday against the Rangers. To me Fry is the most obvious player to be traded this season. Hes pitching great, and has for three out of the four years he has been with the O’s but he is already 28 and only has two more years of team control at an escalating arbitration cost. Add the fact that the Orioles have quite a few lefties vying for rotation spots (Bruce Zimmermann, Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, Kevin Smith, etc.) but most of them will inevitably end up in a bullpen role eventually. All that said because hes only a two pitch pitcher with neither one being overwhelmingly dominant, Fry can be underappreciated by Oriole fans including myself.

3 Down

Anthony Santander – .130/.185/.174 (.359), 1 R, 1 double, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 7 K, 23 AB

Its hard to tell what to make of Santander’s season to date. His offensive numbers are terrible (.526 OPS over 55 at bats) but he is in the top 12% in terms of average exit velocity and the top 23% in hard hit percentage. Its easy to say he is just hitting into bad luck but his launch angle is down nearly 20 degrees from his breakout 2020 campaign. So he is hitting the ball just as hard but just isn’t elevating the ball at all. Its hard to get hits, especially extra base hits, when you’re hitting the ball on the ground. Trey Mancini is having the same issue so hopefully its something they can figure out. Santander’s problem is that he isn’t walking at all and is in the bottom 15% when it comes to chase rate and is in the bottom third in strikeout percentage. The good news is that it seems like the gains he made on defense in right field last season to be a gold glove finalist have carried over into 2021. He is in the top third in outs above average for his position. The eye test tells me the same thing, he does seem to be getting good jumps and taking good routes to get to balls and his arm is pretty good out there.

Pedro Severino – .143/.143/.143 (.286), 14 AB

The Orioles catching situation is a mess. I completely understand why Severino is the starting catcher over Chance Sisco but both of those guys are terrible defensively and neither are hitting at all. Both of them are in the bottom six of all major league catchers in pitch framing. Sisco struggles to block pitches in the dirt and Severino seems unable to catch anything he has to reach for sometimes. Pedro is also 0-5 in throwing out runners attempting to steal. He seemed like a trade candidate halfway through the shortened 2020 season but since then I’m not sure who would give up anything for him. Sisco is striking out 50% of the time and has yet to draw a walk this year which is something he typically does well. The fact that top prospect Adley Rutschman is so close yet so far away doesn’t help the frustration. I feel like it won’t be long until Nick Ciuffo is called up to replace Sisco. Hes never hit well but he is at least solid defensively and has offensive upside as a former high draft pick. Taylor Davis and Austin Wynns are other options.

Ryan Mountcastle – .174/.167/.261 (.428), 1 R, 2 doubles, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 23 AB

Mountcastle started the season cold and striking out a ton but then it seemed like he was starting to turn things around with a six game hitting streak against the Red Sox and Mariners. He only has four strikeouts in his last 23 at bats which is a sign that he is seeing the ball well but he hit into some terrible luck in Texas over the weekend going 0-11 in the series. There were multiple hard hit balls that looked like extra bases off of the bat but there were either hit too close to defenders or the Rangers outfielders were making great plays on them. I’m very confident that its only a matter of time before the hits and especially extra base hits start raining down. He is hitting the ball harder than his excellent debut in 2020 and his launch angle is much improved as well. His walk rate is less than half of what it was last year but that was never sustainable based on his minor league career. As long as he can keep his strikeout rate at a manageable level he will be fine when hes standing in the batters box. His defense on the other hand continues to be a work in progress. Since his terrible week in the outfield he has been spending most of his time at DH and played the last two games at first base. I think he ultimately ends up at first in the long term, hes pretty solid over there already and the Orioles have an abundance of outfielders that are promising. Plus the bat should be good enough to play there.