3 Up, 3 Down – April 25, 2022

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week will highlight the performances of the series’ against the Athletics and Angels.

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3 Up

Cedric Mullins – .286/.444/.381 (.825), 5 R, 2 doubles, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 SB, 21 AB

Two homeruns including a grand slam, along with the entire offense being ice cold, was pretty much the only thing that kept Mullins off of the three down list last week but he has rebounded nicely over the past week. Over his first 40 at bats he only walked twice and struck out 14 times, he doubled that walk total in seven games on this west coast trip and significantly cut down the strikeouts. For those fearing a regression for last year’s surprise Most Valuable Oriole I think its fine to take a deep breath with the Orioles reaching the 10% mark of the season. He is actually hitting the ball harder and more often sitting in the 77th percentile or above in hard hit percentage, barrel percentage, and expected slugging percentage. The biggest issue early on was a very poor chase rate but with how quickly that has rectified itself it leads me to believe that is more of a result of the abbreviated spring training than anything. Mullins speed is gradually declining, which is completely normal as he is approaching 28 years old, so the question of him being able to stick in centerfield with his below average arm strength is something to keep in the back of our head. His outs above average and outfielder jump numbers are down from last year but defensive numbers take more time to stabilize.

Jordan Lyles – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 1.20 WHIP

The Jordan Lyles era didn’t get off to the best start when he gave up five runs over five innings in the second game of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays. In his two starts since then he has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 innings with three walks and 10 strikeouts. Now, don’t expect that to keep up because he is in the blue in pretty much every statcast category but he was signed to eat innings and help preserve a bullpen that has a lot of big arms in it. With John Means going down to Tommy John surgery officially now that becomes even more essential for Lyles to do. One reason to think he may be able to at least be close to league average is the way he is mixing up his pitches. He made an adjustment to his slider late in 2021 and it has easily become his best pitch. He has dropped his fastball usage, that has a batting average against around .300 over the last two years, from around 40% to 25.9% and while he is still throwing the slider a similar amount to last season he is mixing in all five of his pitches more to keep hitter off balance. Regression is due for the Orioles pitching staff that has been outstanding to start the year but the hope is that the emergence of Bruce Zimmermann and the expected debuts of Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall throughout the year will help offset some of that.

Jorge Lopez – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 SV, 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 0.55 WHIP

Lopez got off to a rocky start out of the bullpen with a 7.71 ERA and 3.43 WHIP over his first three appearances covering 2.1 innings but has been dominant ever since. He has thrown 6.2 consecutive scoreless innings only allowing two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts en route to recording three saves. He is pounding his sinker that averages 98 mph in short stints around 50% of the time pretty much completely dropping his four seam fastball that he threw 21.1% of the time last season. Unlike some dominant relievers he isn’t just relying on two or maybe three pitches. Outside of the four seamer he is still throwing his full repertoire that he did as a starter (sinker, changeup, slider, curveball) to much more success. All of a sudden he is one of the hardest throwers in baseball and it isn’t on a straight fastball. It remains to be seen if he can sustain this success in high pressure situations consistently but right now he looks very confident on the mound and is finally showing why has been highly regarded for many years without having the numbers to back it up.

3 Down

Ramon Urias – .133/.188/.133 (.321), 1 R, 1 RBI, 15 AB

Back to back weeks on this list for Urias who was actually worse this week than over the teams first nine games. Its interesting to note that he started 2021 on the major league roster and played himself into a demotion to AAA Norfolk before taking control of a starting job once he made his return towards the second half of the season. Perhaps he is just a slow starter and is yet another position player impacted by the shortened spring training. The weird thing is he is in the top 10% of baseball when it comes to chase rate yet he is striking out over 25% of the time and walking almost half as much as he did last season. When he hits the ball he has an above average hard hit percentage and well above average exit velocities, giving him an expected batting average .103 points higher than his actual .176 line. He is just swinging and missing too much, particularly struggling against sliders which he is whiffing on 45% of the time. Based on that I would continue to give him an opportunity to work through it especially considering there are other options to bench or designate for assignment once rosters shrink to 26 next week. Chris Owings, Kelvin Guttierez, and Rougned Odor have combined for a -0.4 WAR and at least one of them have been in the Orioles lineup in every game. Infielders Rylan Bannon, Tyler Nevin, and Richie Martin are also playing very good baseball early on for AAA Norfolk.

Jorge Mateo –.158/.158/.211 (.369), 1 double, 0 BB, 5 K, 3 SB, 19 AB

We’re starting to see Mateo slip back into bad habits after showing off an improved plate discipline in spring training and the first week or so of the regular season. Overall he still holds a 7% walk rate which is very good for him but he is striking out 31.4% of the time. Like almost every Oriole hitter his expected batting average (.266) is higher than his actual BA (.231) and his elite speed never sleeps having already stolen seven bases. The defense at shortstop has been as expected, flashes of brilliance but also some unforced errors. His biggest issue at the plate has been breaking balls which he actually batted .288 against last season. This year he is hitting .136 against them with an expected batting average not much better, .184. Similar to Ramon Urias I would continue to give him opportunities at least in the short term with so many worse players on the roster. He may even have a longer shelf life than Urias in the long term because he will always be a weapon on the bases with his speed and provides defensive versatility being able to play all over the infield as well as at a corner outfield spot. Even if he never hits consistently at the major league level he will be a much coveted player for every contending team down the stretch a la Billy Hamilton or Terrence Gore.

Chris Elllis – 0-0, 10.38 ERA, 4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 HBP, 6 BB, 2 K, 2.54 WHIP

Ellis actually pitched really well coming up to the major league club on short notice after the John Means injury, throwing 4.1 scoreless innings with two strikeouts last Tuesday against the Oakland A’s. He also looked good for the O’s after being claimed on waivers from the Rays late in the 2021 season, so much so that it was surprising to see him removed from the 40 man roster over the offseason. He was ultimately re-signed to a minor league contract and it didn’t take long for him to get an opportunity after throwing four scoreless innings for AAA Norfolk. The problem came on Sunday immediately in his start against the Angels. He couldn’t find the strike zone at all, hitting a batter and walking three to go along with allowing a hit. He was quickly removed with an apparent shoulder injury and Travis Lakins didn’t do him any favors immediately giving up a grand slam. Seems fair to say the control issues stemmed from the arm injury which is unfortunate because while I don’t think he will ever be able to stick in a major league rotation I do think Ellis has the potential to be a decent multi-inning reliever for somebody. Whether that is with the Orioles or not may come down to how bad the injury is considering the Orioles will need the roster space on both the 26/28 and 40 man rosters.