3 Up, 3 Down – August 30, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Angels and Rays.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Ryan Mountcastle – .320/.379/.720 (1.099), 7 R, 1 double, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB, 25 AB

Mountcastle’s week should’ve been even better. He had multiple batted balls hit over 100 mph that the opposition made great plays on including a homerun that got brought back by Kevin Kiermaier. Hitters gonna hit and Mountcastle is proving himself to be quite the hitter indeed with a .295 batting average and .956 OPS since the all-star break. I know you can’t but if you take out his dreadful April he has a .285 batting average and an OPS just under .900 despite only having a walk rate barely over 6%. 23 of his 24 homeruns have come since May and he only needs four more to tie Cal Ripken Jr. for the team record of homeruns by a rookie eligible player. Even with the slow start rolled in he has managed to get his OPS above .800 (.807). He has been especially dangerous against left handed pitching batting .284 with a .856 OPS against them. He looks solid defensively when he is in the field at first base and is establishing himself as a key middle of the order hitter for the next good Oriole team. As bad as this season has been at the major league level, Mountcastle’s and Cedric Mullins’ seasons have been very important by establishing above average major league talent from young players. The next step involves surrounding them and John Means with major league veterans via free agency and/or trade and having enough prospects from the number one farm system in baseball make an impact over the next couple of years.

Austin Hays – .500/.526/.944 (1.471), 6 R, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 18 AB

Its been a roller coaster of a few weeks for Hays when it comes to finding himself on either side of this list multiple times. We find ourselves in a chicken or the egg type situation with him when it comes to his playing time. Brandon Hyde has been using Hays and DJ Stewart as a platoon in left field for most of August and it has been working out the last week or so. Hays has crushed lefties all year with a .300 batting average and .897 OPS against LHP compared to a .214 average and .619 OPS versus righties. At the same time the talent is there for him to be a full time corner outfield if given an extended look against all pitchers. Even if he ultimately does end up as a short side of an outfield platoon there isn’t a better time to find out than this season. And the most frustrating part is watching Stewart continue to be run out there two thirds of the time, struggling to hit .200 and being terrible on defense. Unless the unseen part of this is that Hays still isn’t fully healthy or they’re using this as a way to keep him healthy it is confusing. Everybody cheers Mountcastle when he manages to draw a walk but Hays has a lower walk rate than him each of the last two years. He is aggressive and its great when he whips his bat around and connects on a ball but teams know they can continue to throw breaking balls at him and he’ll swing and miss unless it’s a hanger as evidenced by his .181 batting average against that pitch type.

Keegan Akin – 1-0, 1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 0.71 WHIP

Akin’s seven inning start against the Angels on Thursday afternoon has to be up there with one of the most surprising starts of the year, in a good way. It looked like Bruce Zimmermann was poised to take Akin’s place in the starting rotation following the completion of his rehab assignment but instead he somehow significantly sprained his ankle while working out and could miss the remainder of the season. Akin has taken advantage of his renewed lease on major league life by having a decent game against the Braves, giving up three runs over five innings, and then tossing this gem last week. It would be an unusually lucky break if he was able to find the mojo that he had in his few games in 2020 where he impressed and was expected to be a big part of the pitching staff this season. He still has a high spin fastball that I think could be effective out of the bullpen in short stints while dropping his least effective pitch or two. For now, keep running him out there every five days while he continues to be successful since there aren’t any other options anyway but he isn’t long for that role with the stampede of pitching prospects on their way in 2022.

3 Down

Jahmai Jones – .100/.143/.150 (.293), 2 R, 1 double, 20 AB

Jones finally made his much anticipated and called for by Orioles fans debut but it didn’t go exactly as expected. He started off his Orioles career by getting hit by a pitch and then proceeded to strikeout eight times over 20 at bats. To be fair to Jones three of those were awful called strike threes that were well off the plate. That didn’t exactly set the tone and perhaps he was pressing a bit after that but he did manage to hit a groundball single up the middle where he would come around to score and a double a couple days later. He did make a few nice plays up the middle defensively and was called for an error on a play that was really tough and could’ve easily been ruled an infield hit. No matter how good or bad Jones does over the final month of the season it is worth it to get an early look at what the team has with him. I’d rather see an energetic prospect with personality struggle out there everyday than a lifeless veteran doing the same thing (no offense to Maikel Franco and Pat Valaika). Once he settles in Jones should be able to be a versatile guy who can play second base and some outfield while hitting around .240 with some pop and the ability to take a walk. An infield to end the season of Jones, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo should at least be fun to watch.

Spenser Watkins – 0-2, 18.00 ERA, 7 IP, 14 H, 4 HR, 1 BB, 7 K, 2.14 WHIP

Watkins was such a great story when he had his contract purchased at the beginning of July in what looked like another one of those short stints in the vein of Konnor Wade Dusten Knight, and Mickey Jannis. But instead he was quickly inserted as a starting pitcher when Bruce Zimmermann was placed on the injured list. He took advantage of the opportunity and threw five innings of one run ball against a powerful Blue Jays offense. He followed that up with a couple more one run outings covering 4.1 and six innings respectively. That was enough to cement his place in the rotation, at least for another month. Unfortunately after posting a 3.10 ERA in July over 20.1 innings he stopped fooling major league hitters and had a 10.80 ERA in 26.2 August innings going 0-6. He can spin his low 90’s fastball pretty good and combines it with a nifty little cutter but he needs to have pinpoint command for it to work and he just didn’t. Following Sunday’s game he was optioned to AAA Norfolk and I wouldn’t be surprised if it is the last time we see him on the major league team. I’m happy he got his shot in the show and made some major league money for a stretch and I’ll always root for him after he appeared on ‘On the Verge’ but the talent doesn’t appear to stack up at the elite level.

Paul Fry – 0-0, 27.00 ERA, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 3.75 WHIP

I would love to know what offers were on the table for Fry at the trade deadline. It has been an incredible fall from grace for him since the ban on sticky substances came in from league. He was one of the best relievers in baseball over the first two months of the season with 2.25 ERA, 2.10 xERA, 1.22 FIP, and 40.3% strikeout rate. Before the sticky stuff ban in the middle of June Fry had a 1.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 25.1 innings. After? An 11.05 ERA and 2.05 WHIP covering 22 innings. He walked 16 batters in seven innings this month for a 21.86 ERA and 3.86 WHIP. It is one of the most complete collapses of a guy who has at least been a solid major league reliever for several years now. To complete the tailspin he was optioned to AAA Norfolk following the game on Sunday where he could only get one out while giving up four runs on two hits, two walks, and a homerun. From big trade chip to AAA in one month. Either he learns how to control the ball without whatever equivalent of spider-tack he was using or he may never be a productive pitcher in the major leagues again. When he is right his fastball slider combination is really effective. Hopefully he is able to find himself again.