3 Up, 3 Down – August 9, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Yankees and Rays.

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3 Up

Cedric Mullins – .320/.370/.680 (1.050), 7 R, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 25 AB

With a little less than two months to go in the 2021 season Cedric Mullins became just the seventh player in Orioles history to record a season of at least 20 homeruns and at least 20 stolen bases. He joins Brady Anderson (who did it three times), Paul Blair, Don Baylor, Reggie Jackson, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Villar in that club and should at least be able to make it to 25/25 with an outside shot at 30/30. If you look at the Fangraphs leaderboards you will see that Mullins is tied for second in all of baseball when it comes to fWAR which combines a players hitting, fielding, and baserunning to determine how many wins they provide over a replacement level player. Mullins sit at 4.7 which is tied with Marcus Semien and behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr at 5.3. Fernando Tatis Jr and Rafael Devers round out the top five, elite company. At the end of the season I will tally how often each player on the Orioles appeared on either side of this list and I don’t think it takes a mathematician to figure out Mullins will be the stand out on that list too since he has tended to appear on ‘3 Up’ more often than not. He isn’t slowing down, if anything he is just getting better as the season wears on.

Jorge Mateo – .273/.333/.545 (.879), 2 R, 1 double, 1 triple, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 11 AB

The Orioles have been claiming players off of waivers all season to try and fill in the gaps on the major league roster but they have mostly been relief pitchers who have some arm talent but haven’t been able to put things together. Jorge Mateo was a case of you had a feeling Mike Elias was going to take a flier on him considering he was once a highly touted prospect and has never really been given an extended look at the major league level due to being on competitive teams with deep rosters. He was a top 100 prospect, as high as 26 from Baseball America, from 2016-2018 and was the centerpiece in the trade that sent RHP Sonny Gray from the Oakland A’s to the New York Yankees. Mateo couldn’t break in with Oakland and was sent to the San Diego Padres where he was DFA’d after a couple of seasons. He is the fastest player in the major leagues which brings a new element to this Orioles team and he showed it off immediately upon being a late substitution for Ryan Mountcastle who left Friday’s game with concussion symptoms after being tagged in the head trying to steal. Mateo crushed a ball to the center field wall and made it into third base for a triple with ease. He also hit a double, stole third base, and scored on a wild throw on Saturday and then stole second base after being hit by a pitch on Sunday. I would expect him to get an extended look over the last two months of the season all over the field. He can play all over the infield and outfield with solid defense. As long as he can hit enough he could end up being a sneaky great acquisition.

Jorge Lopez – 1-0, 2.25 ERA, 12 IP, 5 H, 7 BB, 9 K, 1.00 WHIP

Lopez was on the ‘3 Down’ list last week but he bounced back in a big way by throwing six innings in back to back starts. On Tuesday in New York he held the Yankees to one run over six innings. He walked five batters and struck out four but he only gave up one hit to the revamped Bronx lineup. Then on Sunday afternoon he held the first place Tampa Bay Rays to two runs on four hits and two walks over six innings with  five strikeouts. Unfortunately for him in that second game the Orioles bullpen imploded for the fifth straight game and his gutsy performance was all for naught. The inconsistency by Lopez all season has at least been… consistent. He throws hard and gets good movement on his pitches but doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses. There is zero chance he ever puts it all together and becomes an above average starting pitcher but there is a slimmer of hope that he could be an effective reliever. For the time being he is eating innings but I would think as guys like Bruce Zimmermann returns from the injured list and Michael Baumann potentially earns a promotion that the Orioles would like to get a look at what this version of Lopez would look like in short stints out of the bullpen.

3 Down

Richie Martin – .231/.267/.308 (.574), 2 R, 1 double, 3 RBI, 13 AB

Martin played in his first game for the Orioles in almost two years after getting a surprising call up to the big leagues after completing his rehab assignment with AA Bowie following a fractured wrist that happened on a play in AAA Norfolk while he was playing center field. He didn’t play centerfield for the Orioles this past weekend but he did get some time at shortstop with Ramon Urias a little banged up (upper leg injury) and playing second base before that. He looked great defensively, even making Jeter-esque throw from the hole but without the theatrical aspect of jumping to put enough on his through before sprinting into the stands. He has a funky new stance at the plate where he leans back while holding the bat up and out before returning to a more traditional stance as the pitch comes in. He didn’t looked overmatched at the plate but certainly still lacks the authority to do much damage. His speed is his best weapon and between him, the newly acquired Jorge Mateo, Ryan McKenna, Cedric Mullins, and the surprising speed of Ryan Mountcastle all of a sudden the Orioles aren’t so plodding on the basepaths. I’m not sure how much playing time Martin will be getting moving forward especially if Jahmai Jones ever gets called up but if they think he has pretty much reached his ceiling then giving him a role on the bench is not a bad thing.

DJ Stewart – .000/.182/.000 (.182), 2 BB, 2 K, 9 AB

This season has seen frustrating mainstays like Chance Sisco, Rio Ruiz, and most recently Pat Valaika be removed from the roster in order to give some fresh faces a chance to establish themselves. DJ Stewart has to be the next in line to fill that role. He has not developed past a defensive liability in the outfield that can’t hit above the Mendoza line but has good plate discipline and the occasional power surge. He is now 27 years old and is still getting more playing time than a guy like Ryan McKenna, who hasn’t been great at the plate at the major league level either but hit well with AAA Norfolk this season and provides blazing speed and great defense. He also hasn’t been given an extended opportunity like Stewart has. Yusniel Diaz can’t stay healthy and isn’t performing this year but even he would be a better option at this point. You also have guys like Robert Neustrom and Zach Jarrett performing decently in AAA Norfolk and even Jahmai Jones and Tyler Nevin have had time in left field. Stewart is clearly going to be a 40 man casualty if he makes it into the offseason so why not get that out of the way early to try and get a look at someone else in the meantime?

Paul Fry – 0-2, 40.50 ERA, 2 IP, 3 H, 7 BB, 1 K, 5.00 WHIP

Apparently the Orioles were close to pulling the trigger on a trade that involved a reliever at the trade deadline a couple of weeks ago but didn’t feel as if the return was quite enough. Since the relievers teams would’ve wanted (Fry, Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser, Dillon Tate) have 3+ seasons of team control left it made sense to only make a deal if they really liked the return but the risk with relievers is that they can turn into a pumpkin at any time and sink their trade value. To be fair the inverse can also be true, just look at Craig Kimbrel, but for Paul Fry it looks like the clock may have struck midnight. With Scott on the injured list its almost like he transferred his lack of command directly to the closest lefty reliever. He walked seven batter in three appearances this week and it just looked like he had no idea where the ball was going when it left his hand. Since the sticky substance ban was announced on June 15^th Fry has walked 15 batters and hit four with pitches over 19 innings. Prior to that point he had walked 10 and hit zero over 23.1 innings. Combined with a decrease in spin rate after that point its starting to look more and more like he was relying on a banned substance to fuel his success. To be fair Fry had a stretch of 8.2 innings coming out of the all-star break where he didn’t give up any runs in eight straight appearances and only walked three batters. But if the almost-trade involved Fry and not one of the other relievers, Mike Elias may be kicking himself just a little bit right now.