3 Up, 3 Down – July 5, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Astros and Angels.

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3 Up

Cedric Mullins – .400/.444/.680 (1.124), 6 R, 1 double, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 25 AB

Mullins certainly had an interesting week. He was a finalist to start in the outfield for the AL in the all-star game but fell short in the final push of the fan vote. Despite ranking at the very top of most categories for American League outfielders he actually finished sixth behind Mike Trout and Byron Buxton (who are both great and deserving but are injured), Teoscar Hernandez, and Michael Brantley. That was disappointing but luckily he made the team as a reserve and should be chosen to start in the place of Trout who will be unavailable to play. Mullins lived up to his all-star reputation during the week but it was divided up in a strange way. He started off hot and ended up with a great game where he didn’t even start. If you combine the first two games against the Astros and Sunday’s game he was 9-12 with all of his extra base hits, a walk, and two of his three steals. In the three middle games he was 1-13 with a single, a walk, and a stolen base. We’re over halfway through the 2021 season now and Mullins hasn’t slowed down one bit. He is still in the top 2-3% of outfielders in defense too (outs above average). The trade deadline is a little more than three weeks but I would be absolutely shocked if Mullins was on the move. If we’re comparing this Orioles team to the Houston Astros when they were in the doldrums of their rebuild, Mullins is our Jose Altuve and John Means is our Dallas Keuchel.

Austin Hays – .360/.360/.640 (1.000), 6 R, 1 double, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 25 AB

Hays raised his average by 16 points (.232 to .248) and his OPS by 37 points (.691 to .728) this week. He was cold for a decent stretch when he came off the injured list but its looking more and more like that might’ve been because he was not completely healthy yet. It looks like he is moving around much better on his hamstring lately and its coming through in his performance. He didn’t walk at all but that is nothing new. His walk rate is right in line with his career average as is his strikeout rate. He will probably never be a perennial all-star but I could see him having a great first half or two in his career to make the team at some point. At 26 years old he is who he is at this point. A guy who will bat around .260 with an OPS around .750, 20-30 homerun power, and solid defense all over the outfield. He is near the bottom 20 percent in outs above average and outfield jump this season but I have to assume that can be attributed to the leg injuries he has been dealing with all season. He still has a cannon for an arm and can roam the outfield with ease. With Mullins cemented in center field he will be a solid corner outfielder who can backup center on a contending team as long as he can – say it with me now – stay healthy.

Ramon Urias – .364/.440/.591 (1.031), 4 R, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 22 AB

When Freddy Galvis went down with an injury a couple weeks ago it was deeply concerning because not only was he one of the steadiest performers both offensively and defensively, there were no obvious players to fill his spot on the major league team or in AAA Norfolk. It looked like it was going to be a rotating wheel of less than mediocrity. Domingo Leyba was brought up but he has been mostly playing third base for an injured Maikel Franco (day to day with a sprained ankle) and second base. He hasn’t been great at the plate so far but not embarrassing like Pat Valaika (see below). Urias started the season with the Orioles but was optioned in mid-May when he was batting .226 with a .626 OPS as a utility player. Getting regular at bats with AAA Norfolk he batted .258 with a .823 OPS over 89 at bats. He has pretty much taken over the starting shortstop role due to great performance since being called up (.360 batting average). He has raised his season totals to .280 (BA) and .817 (OPS) and is giving the Orioles a good look in what could be an audition to a spot on next year’s roster. He has a solid bat with surprising pop for a player who can play up the middle. His defense isn’t his calling card but he makes the plays that he can get to for the most part.

3 Down

Keegan Akin – 0-0, 12.00 ERA, 3 IP, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 2.67 WHIP

Akin and Dean Kremer were both bright spots at the end of the 2020 season and gave Orioles fans hope that they had two starting pitching prospects that should have two spots in the 2021 rotation locked up. They were supposed to be the early look of the barrage of pitching prospects rising through the system. I’ve talked about Kremer and how disappointing his season has been but while the hopes aren’t as high for Akin’s future value he has been right there with him. He started the season by not making the opening day roster and trying to get right in extended spring training. He eventually found his way to where everyone thought he would be but it has been a real struggle. He is sitting at a 7.46 ERA over 41 innings with 38 strikeouts and a 1.68 WHIP. The problem is he just throws too many pitches per inning and he can never work deep into games (five innings being deep in 2021, at least for the Orioles). He doesn’t have the command or the stuff to put away hitters when he is ahead of them. Interestingly I still have faith that Akin can be a good 1-2 inning reliever. He really struggles when hitters are able to get a second (or third) look at him. He has a 14.72 ERA the second time through the order over 14.2 innings and a 9.82 ERA over 3.2 innings the third time through the order. But the first time through? He has a 2.38 ERA over 22.2 innings with 23 strikeouts and eight walks. If the team had more options I think he would be in the bullpen already but they might need to switch places with him and the recently recalled Zac Lowther as soon as the next time through the rotation.

Pat Valaika – .071/.188/.071 (.259), 1 RBI, 2 BB, 14 AB

Valaika was a pleasant surprise last year during the 60 game 2020 season batting .277 with a .791 OPS and eight homeruns. In one less plate appearance this season he is batting .187 with a .503 OPS and one homerun. The short sample size league wide last season made it difficult to evaluate the players who were pleasant surprises and surprising disappointments. Valaika seemed like a bit of a fluke but I still thought he would be a decent power bat against left handed pitching. He is hitting better against lefties than righties but the good side of that platoon is still just a .217 batting average and .607 OPS over 58 plate appearances. The metrics say he has been good defensively at second base but below average at shortstop which checks out. Its interesting to me that he has been on the major league club all season while guys like Ramon Urias, Ryan McKenna, and Stevie Wilkerson have been up and down. When the Orioles finally deem Jahmai Jones ready to make his Orioles debut (I’m guessing that will be coming out of the all-star break next weekend) it almost has to be Valaika that loses his spot on the roster to accommodate him.

Hunter Harvey – 0-0, 27.00 ERA, 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K, 3.00 WHIP

What a tough career for Harvey when it comes to injuries. After being selected with the Orioles first pick in the 2013 draft he battled arm injuries from 2015 to 2018, only throwing 63.2 innings over those four seasons. He was finally moved to the bullpen in 2019 and excelled enough to make his major league debut, impressing with a fastball that touched 100 mph. He looked like he could be a future closer following those 6.1 innings at the end of the season. He was okay in 2020 but again only through 8.2 innings. He started this season on the injured list with an oblique strain, finally made it back and had an eerily similar pitching line to 2020 (4.15 ERA over 8.2 innings with six strikeouts and three walks) before heading back to the IL with a lat strain. When we first heard about the injury it sounded much worse as they thought it was something with his shoulder. He will still miss at least a month but it is a much better prognosis than another significant arm injury. He is like the Austin Hays of pitchers on this team. It would be great to finally get a full healthy season to evaluate him as a possible back end reliever but I am skeptical that the team will ever be able to get that out of him. He still has a heavy upper 90’s fastball so I’m assuming he will continue to get chances at least until he hits arbitration.