3 Up, 3 Down – June 14, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Mets and the Rays.

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3 Up

Trey Mancini – .250/.429/.438 (.866), 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 16 AB

It was a solid week for Mancini but the real reason he ended up on this list is because nobody else had a great week. He hit his first homerun since May 26^th on Friday driving in the Orioles only two runs in that game. He also had four walks while only striking out three times. His walk rate has improved every season that hes played in and it is over 10% now for 2021 (10.3). His strikeout rate has also decreased over time and his hard hit percentage just gets higher and higher. So far in June he only has a .237 batting average, the same as his cold start due to some bad luck in April, and he isn’t hitting for much power but despite that he has a .356 on base percentage for the month and looks much more confident at the plate. The inevitable comeback player of the year looks like a safe bet to earn a spot on the bench for the all-star game next month. The bigger question will be whether or not Cedric Mullins and/or John Means will join him.

Pat Valaika – .417/.500/.583 (1.083), 3 R, 2 doubles, 4 RBI, 12 AB

Valaika missed some time on the bereavement list and then came back last week on fire. He had RBI doubles in his first two at bats after returning, a pinch hit single the next night, and then went 2-7 with two walks in the weekend series with the Rays where the Orioles offense barely showed up. In what was a platoon at second base with Stevie Wilkerson he has pretty much taken over the full time job for the time being, relegating Wilkerson to just three at bats last week (he struck out all three times). Baseball Savant has Valaika at slightly above average defensively which is hard to believe for someone nicknamed “Pat the Bat”. But I guess that is possible when you don’t ask him to play shortstop which didn’t work out too well last season. In a perfect world Valaika would be the last guy on the bench who can play a few positions in a pinch or pinch hit against a left handed pitcher late in a game. That perfect world might not be too far away now with Jahmai Jones back in AAA Norfolk’s lineup everyday and performing well. Its only a matter of time before he gets called up to take Wilkerson’s spot on the roster.

Tyler Wells – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K, 0.50 WHIP

Following the rule 5 draft where the Orioles selected two right handed pitchers it was widely noted that Wells seemed to have more potential than Mac Sceroler (more on him below) despite being the second selection of the two. It started out rough for the former Minnesota Twins prospect but that’s to be expected considering he hadn’t pitched since 2018 due to Tommy John surgery in May 2019. He had a 6.52 ERA over 9.2 innings in April, allowing four homeruns. It got better in May with a 4.63 ERA over 11.2 innings and only two homeruns allowed. So far in June he has let to allow a run over eight innings and is being used much more often as Brandon Hyde’s confidence in him grows. The encouraging thing even when he was struggling was that he had a solid WHIP (1.14 in April, 1.37 in May) and was striking batters out (11 in April, 15 in May). So far in June he has a 0.38 WHIP and eight strikeouts over eight innings. His ERA for the season sits at 3.99 with a 1.02 WHIP and his Baseball Savant page is filled with red (above average in statcast metrics). His slider has been particularly effective with a .115 batting average against it and he gets good downward plane on his four seam fastball which averages 94.4 mph. At this point I think the Orioles will do what it takes to keep him on the roster all season even if he regresses and starts to struggle again. He has shown enough potential to want to keep long term and could be a starter in the future once he is allowed to build up his innings. I could see him starting 2022 in the AAA Norfolk rotation or the Orioles bullpen.

3 Down

Ryan Mountcastle – .105/.150/.105 (.255), 1 R, 2 RBI, 19 AB

So much for that hot streak… After earning the MLB player of the week honor for the first week of June by destroying every baseball thrown in his general direction, his production fell off a cliff. He had the second most at bats on the team and managed two singles and a walk. He struck out five times which is less than his average for the season (30.6%) so I’m not convinced that he is going to be back in his season long funk. On Saturday he did confirm that he should only be looked at as a first baseman and/or designated hitter moving forward as he was given another chance to play left field with Cedric Mullins given a day off and it went about as well as it did earlier in the season. Badly. What should have been a single on a ball lined in his direction bounced over his head for a run scoring double. A few more softly hit singles later and Jorge Lopez had an ugly line on his hands en route to a 5-4 loss. I wouldn’t expect to see Mountcastle out there again anytime soon.

Austin Hays – .000/.091/.000 (.091), 10 AB

Hays was activated from the injured list over the weekend after yet another stint with a hamstring injury. At the time it was said to be minor and if the Orioles didn’t have such a short bench with a couple other guys with minor injuries that he may have avoided a trip to the IL altogether. It must have lingered a little longer than expected because he ended up missing about a week more than the 10 day minimum. After the game on Saturday Brandon Hyde mentioned that he tweaked it again but luckily he was in the lineup and playing center field on Sunday. He didn’t record a hit in his first three games back but to be fair the Rays held the O’s to 11 hits for the whole series so he wasn’t alone. He did work a walk on Sunday and continues to be very solid defensively in the outfield. He will provide value for the team, of that I am sure, but he has to be able to stay on the field and in the lineup. At this point I don’t see how anyone can be confident that he will be able to do that but fortunately the Orioles have depth in the outfield. Between Hays and prospect Yusniel Diaz, another talented outfielder who can’t stay healthy, maybe the Orioles can count on at least one of them being available at any given time over the next few years. If not there is always DJ Stewart and Ryan McKenna who can fill in.

Mac Sceroler – 0-0, 27.00 ERA, 2 IP, 5 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 3.00 WHIP

Sceroler is another guy who was recently activated from the injured list and has performed poorly since returning. In comparison to fellow rule 5 pick Tyler Wells its not looking good for his long term prospects of sticking on the team and remaining with the organization for much longer. He went on the IL after the first week of the season with a shoulder injury after just two appearances. No matter what happens he’ll at least always have his major league debut when he pitched 2.2 scoreless innings against the Yankees in New York city, striking out four batters. In his second appearance he gave up three runs on five hits including two homeruns in one inning against the Red Sox. In his first and only appearance since coming off the IL he took one for the team and ate two innings despite being rocked for six runs on five hits and a walk. He gave up three homeruns in that game against the Mets which the Orioles would end up losing 14-1. I’m honestly surprised he wasn’t returned to the Cincinnati Reds following that game. He didn’t pitch any better in his rehab stint with AAA Norfolk. He had a 16.62 ERA over 4.1 innings. He did strike out 10 batters but allowed eight hits and two walks for a 2.31 WHIP. He may get a few more opportunities but the next time there is a roster crunch and the Orioles need an arm I would bet that he is the casualty to make room for it.