3 Up, 3 Down – June 27, 2022

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week will highlight the performances of the series’ against the Nationals and White Sox.

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3 Up

Adley Rutschman – .333/.368/.778 (1.146), 3 R, 5 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 18 AB

Looks like this Adley Rutschman fella is starting to figure out this hitting thing. Over his first 62 plate appearances in the majors he was batting .143 with a .422 OPS, only two extra base hits, a 6.5% walk rate, and a 24.2% strikeout rate. Since June 10 he is batting .320 with a 1.010 OPS, 10 doubles, two homeruns, a 7.4% walk rate, and a 13% strikeout rate over 54 plate appearances. That stretch is good for a 183 wRC+ and he already has 0.8 fWAR on the season thanks to well above average defense behind the plate. He is in the 83percentile when it comes to framing pitches, he has a great arm behind the plate even if it has been inaccurate at times, and he seems to have a great rapport with the pitching staff already. He has his batting average up to .223 and his OPS up to .699 thanks to his power starting to translate into games, mostly in doubles so far. The strikeout rate is coming down. The next step is to get his walk rate up to where it has been throughout his entire career. It is 14.1% for his entire minor league career and has never been lower than 12.8% for any extended stop. The walks will come. He has great at bats and now that he is consistently hitting the ball with authority (even his outs tend to be loud) I would think pitchers will challenge him less resulting in a higher on-base percentage. Also, he has been hitting fifth or sixth depending on who is in the lineup with absolutely no protection from the guys coming up behind him. It won’t be long until he is batting third every day.

Austin Hays – .320/.320/.680 (1.000), 4 R, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 25 AB

Hays’ week didn’t exactly start off on the right foot. On Tuesday against the Nationals he went 0-4 with four strikeouts. He obviously didn’t let it bother him too much because he came back the next night in a rain soaked game that ended after six innings and two rain delays and hit for the cycle in his four at bats. Then he added three more doubles during the four game series against the White Sox in Chicago. He is on pace for over 40 doubles, 20 homeruns, and around 100 RBI. Despite not taking a walk this week his walk rate and hard hit percentage are up while his strikeout rate is down from 2021. He is making diving catches and throwing out runners on the bases seemingly at will. All that plus a 132 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR make him the front runner to be a representative of the Orioles in the all-star game, at least on the position player front. Hays has played so well this year that it got me thinking maybe the Orioles should sell high on Cedric Mullins and move Austin to centerfield unless and until a suitable replacement comes around (Hudson Haskin and Colton Cowser are both currently in AA Bowie as possibilities down the line). I typically have faith in Baseball Savant’s defensive numbers but Hays being in the seventh percentile in outs above average and the 16th percentile in outfielder jump has me wondering how that is possible. He looks like an asset out there to me.

Spenser Watkins – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 1.20 WHIP

The Orioles patchwork rotation did an incredible job this past week. Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer continued their success, Jordan Lyles ate his innings effectively, and even waiver claim Austin Voth pitched a solid three innings to kick off a bullpen game on Friday in Chicago. But I’m giving the top nod to Watkins for coming back from AAA Norfolk to start in place of the struggling rookie Kyle Bradish, who was placed on the injured list due to shoulder discomfort, and shutting down the White Sox offense over five innings only allowing one unearned run. He was sent down to AAA immediately after coming off the injured list himself a couple weeks ago for that line drive that hit his arm earlier in the season. In his time with the Tides he had a 3.52 ERA over 7.2 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk. I’m not sure how long Watkins will hold on to a rotation spot with Bradish expected to miss close to the minimum amount of time with his IL stint, DL Hall a couple of good performances away from making his major league debut, and Bruce Zimmermann trying to work his way back but he is at least ahead of Voth who is expected to start at least one more game the next time through the rotation. You enter a season expecting to need at least 10 starting pitchers over the course of the schedule and the 2022 Orioles are a prime example of that with John Means going down for the year, Grayson Rodriguez suffering a back injury that delays his debut, Bruce Zimmermann forgetting how to pitch, and injuries to Chris Ellis, Alexander Wells, and Kyle Brnovich. It may not have been the pitching depth Orioles fans wanted coming into the season but it was a blow nonetheless. Watkins has been an unexpectedly valuable depth arm to fill in as needed and that could continue throughout the season.

3 Down

Richie Martin – .077/.077/.077 (.154), 1 RBI, 2 SB, 13 AB

Martin was having success while getting consistent at bats in AAA Norfolk this season before being called up to the big league club when Ramon Urias went down with an injury. He was batting .294 with a .824 OPS, 13 doubles, 4 triples, a homerun, and 17 stolen bases over 163 at bats all while playing solid defense in the middle infield. He got off to a hot start with the O’s going 4-9 in his first two games with two triples and two RBI but has gone 1-21 since then striking out 33% of the time. With Urias expected to return from the injured list sometime soon and new waiver claim Jonathan Arauz being added to the roster and making a good first impression it could be a short stay for the former rule 5 pick out of the Oakland A’s organization. The 27 year old has worked hard to come back from injuries and continue to improve his skillset and while he may deserve one more shot to prove that he can stick at the major league level it is very hard to see his place on the Orioles moving forward other than minor league infield depth with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Terrin Vavra right on his heels.

Robinson Chirinos –.167/.286/.167 (.453), 1 R, 6 AB

I honestly don’t think it matters at all to the Orioles how Chirinos performs at the plate. They signed him to be a veteran presence at a position that hasn’t had much consistency on the team over the past few years and to be a mentor of sorts for Adley Rutschman now that he is in the majors. He is similar to former catcher Pedro Severino in that he is terrible at pitch framing (the very bottom one percent of the league) but where he differs is that he can catch the ball. He is good at managing a game, blocking pitches in the dirt, and being a positive influence in the clubhouse. But if we are looking at his stats he hasn’t hit at all. His .165 batting average for the season is right in line with his .166 expected batting average and his .116 ISO is the lowest its been since he was with the Texas Rangers in 2013 other than the COVID shortened 2020 season. He is walking 10.1% of the time which is a good number but he also striking 30.2% of the time which is… not. Needless to say the 38 year old will not be around in 2023, not with multiple viable backup catcher options currently in the upper minors for the O’s (Jacob Nottingham, Maverick Handley, Cody Roberts), but he is still serving an important purpose on the team this year even if it doesn’t show up in the box scores.

Jordan Lyles – 0-2, 4.05 ERA, 13.1 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 8 K, 1.13 WHIP

 The pitching was so good this week that Jordan Lyles eating more than six innings per game with a solid ERA around four over two starts this week qualifies as ice cold. He did start the only two games that the Orioles lost last week so there is that. On Sunday he gave the team an early deficit of 4-1 by the fourth inning but he managed to stick in there through the seventh to give the team a chance at a comeback that they fell just short on. For the season he has the 20th highest total innings pitched in the major leagues with 85.2. Over that span he holds a 4.94 ERA, although a 4.32 FIP and 4.36 xFIP which indicates he has had some bad luck, with 70 strikeouts and 28 walks. Other than having a start pushed back a couple days due to a stomach bug he has done exactly what the Orioles signed him to do – take the ball every fifth day and give them enough innings to try and help save the bullpen and keep the team in games. I’m still not sure what the Orioles plan to do with his $11 million team option for 2023, I guess that largely depends on how the second half of the season plays out, but for 2022 he has been worth every penny.