Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week will highlight the performances of the series’ against the Royals, Cardinals, and Tigers.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Trey Mancini .400/.500/.640 (1.140), 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, 25 AB

Mancini had a string of bad luck to open the season so its only fitting that the shoe was on the other foot to kickstart some success. After missing a few games with rib cage soreness trying to make a play at the wall in the outfield at the turn of the month he had a couple of multi-hit games where some of his worst hit balls of the season fell in for hits. Since then he has gone back to hitting the ball well and been rewarded for it. After a .224 batting average and .590 OPS in 84 April plate appearances he has a .400 batting average and 1.004 OPS in 51 plate appearances so far in May. His walk rate is down 0.8% from 2021 but his strikeout rate is also down by almost 3%. His expected batting average is in the top 3% of baseball, his expected slugging percentage is in the top 9%, and his expected wOBA is in the top 11%. He’s above average in every offensive metric other than chase rate and walk rate where he is slightly below average. Even without the power showing up in his ISO (would be a career low .107) he is still essentially hitting better than he ever has. In his 2019 career year where he had a .899 OPS and 3.4 fWAR his wRC+ was 132. With this deflated offensive environment his .745 OPS leaves him with a 122 wRC+. At 30 years old and basically a DH (he can be passable at first base but is still below average) the return will not be what fans would want but if he keeps hitting like this and with the DH now permanent in the National League you can be certain Mancini will be traded sometime before the deadline.

Kyle Bradish1-0, 2.57 ERA, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 11 K, 0.57 WHIP

The reason being swept by the 9-23 (entering the three game series) Detroit Tigers this weekend while suffering through some key injuries doesn’t change my outlook on the Orioles season and why I’m still looking forward to going to the game tonight (Monday, May 16th) even if Adley Rutschman doesn’t make his major league debut is because of Bradish’s performance in St. Louis last week. He became only the second pitcher in major league history after Stephen Strasburg to strikeout 11 batters without walking anyone in one of his first three major league appearances. You could tell it was going to be a good night for the young righty when he came out of the gates sitting at 97-98 mph with the fastball. He had been averaging 94 mph in his first two starts and it came back down to earth a bit over the course of the evening but above average velocity, above average fastball spin, and above average command are a great combination for a pitch thrown around 50% of the time. A slider that gets swings and misses 42% of the time (and made Nolan Arenado look like late career Chris Davis) isn’t a bad follow-up either. The most impressive aspect of the outing came after the sixth inning opened up with a double and an inside the park homerun that bounced off Cedric Mullins leg trying to make a play at the wall. We saw Bradish get rattled in his previous outing after cruising to start the game but this time he followed up facing some adversity by striking out the next three batters in a row. It looked like that might be it to let him end on a high note but he came back out for the seventh and got them 1-2-3 with two more strikeouts. His next start opens the week against the first place New York Yankees at a point when the Orioles need a stopper to end a losing streak.

Felix Bautista0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 SV, 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.38 WHIP

With the Orioles closer and anchor to a surprisingly dominant bullpen Jorge Lopez out on the bereavement list for the series against the Cardinals following the unfortunate loss of his grandfather, Bautista was forced to step into the closer role and he did the job with aplomb. Dillon Tate was given the first opportunity to hold down a 5-2 lead in the ninth last Tuesday but left with runners on first and second and two outs with the lead down to two. Bautista came in and struck out Tyler O’Neil (who hit 34 homeruns in 2021) on five pitches, touching 102 mph on the radar gun. His second save of the week was an even tougher situation. A bullpen game that saw the Orioles holding a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning and the rested arms down to Bautista and a yet to make his major league debut Denyi Reyes, Big Felix was left on an island to get four outs. Joey Krehbiel allowed a run to make it a one run game and left with two outs and a runner on base. Bautista got the final out of the inning and then faced the minimum three batters in the ninth thanks to Jorge Mateo and the previously mentioned O’Neil making a baserunning blunder on a shallow flyball that turned into a game ending double play. He threw as many pitches 100+ mph in that appearance than any other Oriole ever had over the course of an entire season (Kevin Gausman with seven) and broke his own record for fastest pitch thrown in the pitch tracking era for the team. It was a huge moment for the 26 year old. He will have moments where his command escapes him but his fastball with elite velocity and elite spin combined with a split finger change-up that has gotten swings and misses 37.1% of the time should have him pitching in the backend of the Orioles bullpen for a long time.

3 Down

Chris Owings.167/.250/.222 (.472), 3 R, 1 double, 1 SB, 18 AB

You know your offense is in trouble when the last man on your bench received 20 plate appearances. Other than walking 17.8% of the time over a short sample size (45 plate appearances) he has been a complete zero at the plate. And in the field honestly. Despite being able to play multiple positions in the infield and outfield he has a -1.0 defensive WAR and is in the bottom 10% of the league when it comes to outs above average. Back to his hitting, he has struck out 37.8% of the time this season, has a completely empty .027 ISO, and has dreadfully low exit velocities. His versatility, ability to easily be removed from the 40 man roster, and being healthy enough to stand on a major league field are what is keeping him on the roster. With Ryan Mountcastle on the injured list with left forearm pain, Austin Hays unavailable after having his hand stepped on, Ramon Urias stuck on the bench with rib discomfort for a few days, and now Jorge Mateo shaken up following a collision with Spencer Torkelson on Sunday all while on the road, Owings almost played as much in one week than he had all season. He is probably not as bad as his numbers to date have shown but he isn’t a major league caliber player especially on a team that has been consistently competitive despite their record. Owings is on borrowed time but until the team gets fully healthy he will continue to borrow it.

Rougned Odor .067/.067/.067 (.134), 15 AB

The good news for Odor is that he only struck out once over his 15 plate appearances for the week but he also didn’t walk or hit anything other than a single single. His .189 batting average for the season is actually higher than his .181 expected batting average and his .311 slugging percentage is higher than his .297 expected slugging percentage. Those numbers are in the bottom 2% and 4% of the league respectively. His 28.8 hard hit percentage is in the bottom 9% of the league and he doesn’t have the positional flexibility that Owings offers. If it wasn’t for the presence of Owings I think he would be much more on the hotseat. He also seems to be well respected in the clubhouse and has helped the Orioles turn a league leading amount of double plays on defense (despite owning a -2.2 defensive WAR and being in the bottom 5% in outs above average). Now that Tyler Nevin and Rylan Bannon are up with the team and with comments from Brandon Hyde suggesting they want to get a good look at players currently on the teams 40 man roster, I wouldn’t be surprised if both Owings and Odor are gone relatively soon. Odor will be the second one to go but especially if Terrin Vavra can get healthy and keep performing for AAA Norfolk then I think the clock is ticking on the second baseman as we pass the six year anniversary of him punching Jose Bautista in the face.

Spenser Watkins0-1, 17.18 ERA, 3.2 IP, 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 2.73 WHIP

Watkins had been surprisingly effective in his first five starts after being forced into the rotation due to injuries to Dean Kremer and more notably John Means. The team wanted to focus on Keegan Akin and Michael Baumann working out of the bullpen in multi-inning roles so the former ‘On the Verge’ podcast guest took advantage of the opportunity while fans waited for the likes of Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall to make their major league debuts (one down). He was outpitching his peripherals over those five starts (3.22 ERA versus a 5.57 FIP and 5.16 xFIP) and it caught up with him in a hurry this past Wednesday against the Cardinals in St. Louis. He has seen a velocity increase compared to last season (his fastball is averaging 92.3 mph compared to 90.8 mph in 2021) and has started throwing a slider that has been his most effective pitch despite not throwing it at all last year. Maybe a move to the bullpen would allow him to ramp up his fastball even more and he could focus on narrowing his arsenal to be a decent multi-inning reliever or maybe he can just be an emergency fill-in starter hanging around AAA but its great to see a player continue to work on his craft and running with opportunities when they arise.

Bob Phelan
Bob Phelan

BSL Analyst

Bob is a co-host of ‘On the Verge’ an Orioles podcast focused on the O’s farm system here on BSL. He used to run the baseball blog ‘The Oriole Report’ before transitioning to podcasting about movies, TV, Video Games, and MMA. ‘The Redbox Report’ movie podcast was started in 2013 followed by ‘The Redbelt Report’ MMA podcast in 2016. Bob has also written for Konsume.com and BaltimoreSportsReport.com and delivers mail for a living in Baltimore County. Follow him on Twitter @TheOrioleReport.

X