3 Up, 3 Down – May 2, 2022

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week will highlight the performances of the series’ against the Yankees and Red Sox.

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3 Up

Austin Hays – .348/.423/.609 (1.032), 2 R, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K, 23 AB

Hays, like almost everyone on the Orioles lineup, got off to a slow start despite seeming to hit the ball hard and having an improved approach at the plate. He stuck with it, didn’t let it affect his approach, and has now broken through enough to raise his overall line to a .275 batting average and .794 OPS. He has nearly doubled his walk rate from 2021 (5.3% to 10%) going from a poor plate discipline to above league average with the help of new hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte. Time will tell if he can maintain a league average or better walk rate but if he can that will increase his value as a player who has been heavily reliant on being able to hit for average. After hitting lefties much better than right handed pitchers in 2021 he actually has a reverse split so far this season. He is batting .309 with a .896 OPS against RHP and only .200 with a 566 OPS against LHP. Hays is hanging right around league average in pretty much every Baseball Savant category except for surprisingly on defense. He is in the 35th percentile when it comes to Outs Above Average and only the 17th percentile in Outfielder Jump. He also has a negative 1.6 defensive fWAR according to FanGraphs. He has passed the eye test out there making some running and diving catches but its hard to see what kind of jump he is getting on balls. Its good to keep in mind that he is playing left field and is learning the new dimensions out there at Camden Yards on the fly.

Rougned Odor – .300/.333/.600 (.933), 5 R, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 20 AB

Its possible Odor saved his job this past week by finally showing some life at the plate. With rosters shrinking from 28 to 26 today and an infield that has been struggling mightily it seemed inevitable that one of Odor, Chris Owings, and Kelvin Guttierez would be removed from the roster. Especially with Tyler Nevin being recalled from AAA Norfolk over the weekend after hitting .364 with a .979 OPS over 66 at bats and being able to play corner infield and outfield. Odor had three hits against the Yankees in a game in the middle of the week and then hit his first homerun of the season on Sunday to help the O’s beat the Red Sox. Owings has been the worst hitter of the bunch striking out in almost 60% of his plate appearances but he can play all over the field and his versatility allowed the team to option outfielder Ryan McKenna to AAA as one of the cuts. That left Guttierez to be designated for assignment having not started any of the games against Boston despite being healthy. He was known for his defense at third base but even that didn’t show itself in limited time this season. Odor will continue to get every day at bats playing second base until forced out by another minor leaguer despite only being league average or better at hitting the ball hard and not chasing pitches outside of the zone. Get healthy soon Terrin Vavra.

Kyle Bradish – 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 1.00 WHIP

The first exciting major league debut of the season came last Friday for the first game of the Red Sox series as it finally became official that Bradish would be getting called up to start following the Chris Ellis injury. After three starts with AAA Norfolk building up his pitch count and posting a 1.20 ERA over 15 innings with 17 strikeouts and three walks, he should be in the Orioles rotation for good – at least for the rest of the 2022 season. The consensus top 10 prospect in one of the best farm systems in baseball is only the third best starting pitching prospect that is likely to make their major league debut with the team this season but there is plenty to be excited about. He touched 97 mph with his fastball but it averaged 94 mph and he showed off the swing and miss breaking stuff while getting through six innings. He will strike out more batters as time goes on but the lone walk was encouraging and the defense didn’t help him out much, particularly Trey Mancini playing right field. His one big mistake was leaving a fastball right down the middle that Christian Arroyo hit out of the park for a two run homer. The 25 year old makes his second start Wednesday night against the Twins, going up against the man he was traded for in Dylan Bundy.

3 Down

Trey Mancini – .176/.222/.235 (.457), 2 R, 1 double, 2 RBI, 17 AB

Its tough to watch Mancini hit into such awful luck. For the season he is batting .224 with a .590 OPS but when you compare his 2022 numbers to his breakout 2019 campaign he is better across the board. Hes hitting the ball harder (91.6 mph on average versus 90.3 mph), barreling the ball more often (12.1% of the time versus 10.3%), and hitting the ball hard more often (53.4% of the time versus 42.7%). His .322 expected batting average is in the top 6% of the league and his .580 expected slugging percentage is in the top 12%. His walk rate is down two percent and his strikeout rate is up two percent but other than that it just seems like a matter of time before he gets those balls to fall in and his luck starts to even out. To add injury to insult he bruised his ribs trying to make a play in right field and missed the last two games of the week against the Red Sox. He is supposed to be back in the lineup tonight (Monday, May 2nd ) against a Twins pitching staff whose starters have the best ERA in the AL. The Orioles are going to need their big three hitters (Mancini, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle) to really get going if they want to continue to be competitive in games during a tough stretch in the schedule before the reinforcements really start showing up as the year goes on.

Travis Lakins –0-0, 10.80 ERA, 3.1 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 2.10 WHIP

I saw a bunch of calls for Lakins to be among the DFA’d with roster shrinkage day arriving and then shock and dismay when he wasn’t removed from the roster. Fear not, he will be gone by the end of the month. There are a rush of potential waiver claims newly available, there is another roster crunch rule coming soon as teams will be required to cut down to 13 pitchers, and there are more talented arms waiting in the wings in AAA Norfolk for their chance in the majors. For now Lakins is a guy that can chew innings (I’ve been told the term “eat innings” is too positive of a connotation) when the team is either losing badly, like when he gave up a grand slam against the Angels after Chris Ellis exited due to injury in the first inning, or winning handily, like when he gave up a grand slam against the Red Sox on Sunday allowing them to climb back to a four run differential. There was a time when he was an intriguing arm with a good spin rate but after the injury that ended his season last year he doesn’t look the same. Minor league rule 5 draft pick Cole Uvila has only allowed one hit over 9.1 scoreless innings for AAA Norfolk. You have to imagine he will get a shot to pitch out of the Orioles bullpen at some point this season while Lakins… isn’t.

Paul Fry – 0-0, 27.00 ERA, 1.2 IP, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, 3.00 WHIP

The Orioles bullpen has been lights out all season aside from two pitchers – the above mentioned Travis Lakins and Fry. Let me just run this down real quick: Keegan Akin has a 1.26 ERA over 14.1 innings, Jorge Lopez has a 1.59 ERA over 11.1 innings, Dillon Tate has a 2.45 ERA over 11 innings, Joey Krehbiel has a 0.90 ERA over 10 innings, Felix Bautista has a 3.24 ERA over 8.1 innings, and Cionel Perez has a 0.00 ERA over 6 innings. Paul Fry? A 10.29 ERA over 7 innings with a 1.86 WHIP… There was a hope that he could rebound after posting a 21.86 ERA over 7 innings last August leading to a surprising demotion to AAA Norfolk where he continued to struggle. And to think there was a point before the trade deadline last year that Fry could be a coveted reliever for a contending team. Now its just a matter of time before he gets replaced by fellow left handed reliever Nick Vespi who is absolutely dominating AAA this season with the Norfolk Tides. After grabbing the leagues attention at the Arizona Fall League the Orioles might’ve gotten lucky that the rule 5 draft was cancelled following the league initiated lockout. He has a 0.00 ERA in AAA over 9.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and a 0.62 WHIP. At 26 years old he doesn’t need much if any more minor league seasoning, meanwhile Fry is getting burnt in the majors.