3 Up, 3 Down – September 20, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This (two) week(s) comes after series against the Yankees and Red Sox.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Ryan Mountcastle – .240/.321/.520 (.841), 4 R, 1 double, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 25 AB

Mountcastle has cemented himself in the Baltimore Oriole history books as the first rookie to hit 30 homeruns (29 also) passing Cal Ripken’s previous record of 28. With two weeks left in the season he’ll have a chance to set the number Adley Rutschman can chase next season. You may think that puts Rutschman at a disadvantage considering he is most likely to stay in AAA for the first month of the season due to MLB’s absurd rules when it comes to service time (hopefully it is something that is addressed in the upcoming CBA negotiations but until then I will assume the rules will remain in place) but Ryan was thinking ahead and didn’t start playing this season until May hit. In April he batted .198 with a .515 OPS and only one homerun. If you take away that month from his season stats (I know, I know) he is batting .278 with a .882 OPS, a .548 slugging percentage, and a 7.9% walk rate which matches his walk rate from his impressive month in 2020. Even including his 4.2% walk rate in April he has his season rate at 7.1% including two walks on Sunday. In a season as awful as 2021 has been it is remarkable how many positive developments there have been including Cedric Mullins’ breakout MVP caliber comeback season, John Means’ no-hitter and continued success out of the rotation, and Trey Mancini’s comeback from cancer to have a very productive season. Mountcastle’s excellent rookie campaign could end up being the most important when it comes to the long term health of the rebuild, cementing himself as a middle of the order hitter for the next contending Orioles team.

Austin Hays – .273/.360/.682 (1.042), 3 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, 22 AB

It is still September so that means Austin Hays is still performing like an all-star caliber outfielder. Three more homeruns gives him 21 for the season to go along with 22 doubles, four triples, and 67 RBI. To try and pinpoint when his bothersome hamstring stopped hampering is tough but if you set that arbitrary moment at the all-star break Hays is batting .261 with a .795 OPS since then. If he can do that over the course of a full season in 2022 I think the Orioles would happily take that. He will always be overly aggressive but at this point trying to change that might cause more harm than good. That aggression probably helps him to barrel up fastballs which he is very good at. He doesn’t strike out as much as you would expect (20.4%, 56th percentile) for a guy with a deadly weakness to breaking balls but at the same time doesn’t walk either (5.3%, 7th percentile). He must be good at fouling pitches off. There is nothing cooler on the Orioles right now than when Hays hits one that he knows is going out and the smoothness that he transitions from his swing to trotting around the bases. Hopefully we get a chance to see a few more of those before the season ends.

John Means – 0-0, 3.18 ERA, 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 1.06 WHIP

Means was rusty when he initially came off of the injured list in July, pitching to a 5.09 ERA over three July starts and a 5.61 ERA over five starts in August. There were some concerns on how the sticky substance ban had affected him since his spin rates were initially down (they have since gone back up) and the contrast from his first 12 starts of the season (2.28 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 71 innings) to the first eight coming off of the IL (5.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 43.1 innings) but his three starts so far in September should help alleviate those concerns. For the month he has a 3.06 ERA over 17.2 innings with 14 strikeouts and a 1.02 WHIP and most likely has three starts left for the season against the Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, and Toronto Blue Jays. It would be nice to see him finish strong, not just because it would be nice to see every player finish strong but because it would give the team some confidence in his health going into the offseason. I think there is a real chance that Means is the first player extended by Mike Elias and it could happen as soon as a couple months from now. He has a 3.75 ERA over 334 career major league innings with a 1.07 WHIP, enough for me to think he will be at least a mid-rotation starter over the next several years.

3 Down

Pat Valaika – .143/.217/.143 (.360), 1 R, 21 AB

Shocking I know. One of the most surprising transactions of the season came recently when the already DFA’d Pat Valaika was added back to the 40 man roster and essentially took the place of recently called up prospect Jahmai Jones on the active roster. Jones struggled in his first taste of the majors with the Orioles (he had seven plate appearances with the Angels last year) but it seemed like a terrible decision at the time to try and wring out a marginal upgrade at best on the team with the worst record in baseball. It turns out Ramon Urias is playing through an upper leg injury that limits him to playing second base in the field and they needed a player or two that could play shortstop (Richie Martin was also called back up) and they wanted Jones to get everyday at bats. I think I would’ve placed Urias on the injured list and let Jones play second base every day at the major league level because what can you really learn about Urias if he is playing compromised unless the injury doesn’t affect him at the plate. Sure, Valaika can stand on the field where a shortstop usually stands but he doesn’t provide any value there (he is better at second base defensively) or at the plate. Even with AAA Norfolk he was batting just .225 with a .556 OPS. He will certainly be removed from the 40 man roster once more when the season ends but apparently he is needed to get through the year.

Kelvin Gutierrez –.211/.211/.263 (.474), 1 R, 1 double, 1 RBI, 19 AB

One positive thing can be said about Kelvin Gutierrez that I don’t think you will find much argument with, he is a great defender on the hot corner. You can nitpick if that fact is enough to warrant running him out there every day, I’ve been on record that I would rather see Rylan Bannon be given a chance at the major league level despite his season long struggles at the plate, but there are worse scenarios than having an all-glove, no-hit third baseman. And he certainly has not been hitting since being acquired by the Orioles. Over 105 plate appearances he is batting .191 with a .510 OPS and only two doubles and a triple, essentially no power. He has a below average walk rate (7.6%) but a very high strikeout rate (32.4%). If you add in his 142 plate appearances with the Kansas City Royals his strikeout rate improves (26.3%) but the walk rate gets worse (5.7%). He is another guy that I would be shocked if he makes it through the offseason on the 40 man roster but can provide the Orioles a warm body to complete this long season. He wouldn’t be the worst player to have in AAA as depth in 2022 so maybe he will stay in the organization when that inevitable DFA comes his way.

Alexander Wells – 0-1, 10.00 ERA, 9 IP, 13 H, 4 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, 1.67 WHIP

The difference between Wells in AAA and in the majors is stark. For AAA Norfolk this season he was 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA over 54.2 innings with 48 strikeouts. With the Orioles he is 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA over 31.2 innings with 23 strikeouts. It is very easy to spot what is causing the disparity. Command. In AAA his walk rate was an excellent 3.2% but with the O’s it is 8.4% which is way higher than it has ever been during any season in his career. His previous career high walk rate was 5.8% in 2018 for then high A affiliate Frederick. That also happens to be by far his worst minor league season so you can see the correlation. Maybe there is a bit of bad luck in his major league results, he has a career high .343 BABIP against, but really it just comes down to him hitting the corners and throwing strikes. He doesn’t have much room for error with a fastball sitting at 88.9 mph but he can spin a curveball (59^th percentile) and has decent offspeed pitches. Out of the struggling left handed pitching prospects that were in the Orioles top 30 coming into the year I still think Wells has the best chance to stick as a back end of the rotation starter if he can find the confidence to pitch the way that got him to this point. I could see Zac Lowther and Keegan Akin finding more success out of the bullpen but it isn’t like Wells is going to ramp it up much more pitching in short stints. Hopefully the team continues to run him out there every five days for the rest of the season so he can take his lumps and learn from them going into spring training next year.