74 games left in the O’s season; things to look for

The Baltimore Orioles enter the 2nd-half tonight, with 74 games left in their 2009 season.

With Ravens training camp only weeks away at this point, and with the O’s in last-place – many say there is nothing to be watching for.

Those people could not have things more wrong, as the questions and storylines for the remainder of this season are numerous.

Here are a few of the questions on my mind, as the 2nd-half starts:

Question:
The O’s are currently 40-48, what is a realistic ending record for the team?

Answer:
2009 has always been about development more than wins and losses. That said, this team is now comprised of enough players that you want to move forward with, that it is important to finish this season strong. In the last 47 games of the 1st-half, the O’s went 24-23 overall, and won 6 of their last 9 series.
There are a couple of reasons to argue why the 2nd-half will be even harder for the Orioles. The O’s have played much better at home than on the road. In these remaining 74 games, 40 of them are on the road. The Orioles are just 13-19 against the AL East, and have 40 games left to play against the Division.
Still, I do believe this team will continue to improve on a month-to-month basis and finish 2009 at 75-87.

Question:
Who is traded at the non-waiver deadline?

Answer:
The O’s have a number of players that could be moved, that would be attractive to contending teams – Guthrie, Huff, Sherrill, Baez, Scott. I do not think the O’s will shop Scott, but anticipate they will listen to offers for all others. If overwhelmed they might pull the trigger, but the only player I believe that will be traded is Baez

Question:
How do you handle 3rd-base in the 2nd-half?

Answer:
I currently see a 0% chance of the O’s picking up Mora’s 2010 option. If anything, the O’s would buy out the option for $1M, and offer Mora a much reduced 2010 contract – but I do not see that happening either. If Mora will not be back next year, and Wigginton is the presumptive 2010 starter; I think Wigginton has to get the majority of the starts to end 2009. I see Mora getting from now until August 15th to see if he put together another magical 2nd-half like he did in 2008.

Question:
Can Brian Roberts put together a strong 2nd-half?

Answer:
It is going to be interesting to watch. In the past 2 seasons, Roberts has had strong 1st-halfs, and mediocre finishes. His first-half of 2009 included a sizzling April, mediocre May, and a slumping June and July. Roberts needs a strong 2nd-half to help the O’s, but also to alleviate some fears of the extension he signed. I think he will be a bit energized in the 2nd-half, as the team does not limp to the finish-line. I predict he bucks the trend of the past two seasons.
2009 Pre All-Star .772 OPS
2008 Pre All-Star .867 OPS
2008 Post All-Star .771 OPS
2007 Pre All-Star .851 OPS
2007 Post All-Star .755 OPS
2006 Pre All-Star .745 OPS
2006 Post All-Star .768 OPS

Bonus:
Last weekend I heard the ‘Jack of all Sports’ show on ESPN 1300 advocating a trade of Roberts, and how much that could bring back to Baltimore. To me, I think that discussion makes little sense. If you were going to trade him, the time to do it was in Spring Training 2008, or at the non-waiver deadline last year. The O’s were shopping him in Winter 2008 (after the Tejada and Bedard trades), and the Cubs offered some value. What you were offered at that time was deemed not to be enough to MacPhail, and there is no reason to believe that suitors will now be offering more. Beyond that, when you sign a player to a 4 year extension in February, it makes little business sense to trade that player in July. For good and for bad, Roberts is part of the positional core that is being established with Markakis, Jones, Wieters and perhaps Reimold and Scott. Roberts turns 32 in October, and figures to diminish over the next 4 seasons, but as Tom Tango told me in February, “Roberts doesn’t have to be productive for all 4 years. He just has to deliver 40MM of performance over the next 4 years, whether it all happens in the first 2 or last 3 or first year or whatever.”

Question:
Will the American League Rookie of the Year come from Baltimore?

Answer:
Bergesen, Reimold, and Wieters are each capable of winning the award, but I believe the winner will either be Detroit’s Porcello, or Toronto’s Romero.

Question:
Will Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta join the O’s rotation before the season ends?

Answer:
I think Tillman will replace Hill or Berken in the rotation in-time for the KC series starting 7/27. If you want to look at Arrieta at the ML level, it should be in the same time-frame. In 2008 Tillman pitched 135.2 innings, and Arrieta pitched 113. In 2009, Tillman has pitched 86.1 innings, and Arrieta has pitched 95.2. Tillman should be good for a season total of 150, and Arrieta should be good for about the same.
If they both make 2 more starts for Norfolk, they would be joining the O’s with around 98.1 innings, and 107.2 innings of 2009 work on their arms. You want to evaluate both pitchers (and let them get their feet wet) when they have something left in their arms, and they are not pitching on fumes. Let them finish 2009 with a 150 total innings respectfully and shut them down for the year.

Question:
What will Luke Scott’s final numbers look like?

Answer:
Scott has 30 extra-base hits in 233 at-bats, with 29 walks and 51 k’s. He enters the 2nd-half with a .305 avg, 18 homers, 51 rbi, OPS of .976, and 11 doubles.
In February I projected Scott’s numbers as: 275 batting avg, 25 homers, 75 rbi, 845 OPS, 33 doubles
Scott is very streaky, and I can see his average coming down, but he should finish with 30+ homers. I now see his 2009 OPS finishing around .900.

Question:
Is the decision between Pie, and Salazar when Hernandez is promoted?

Answer:
I think so, as I do not see the O’s going with an a 11 man-staff, nor do I see them releasing Mora, or Izturis/Andino. If you had to choose either Pie or Salazar to keep, I think Pie is the clear choice, mostly due to age. Pie is just 24 and has a large ceiling of ability. Salazar has shown he can help as a bat off the bench, but he turned 31 in June. For a team that is building, you have to keep the vastly younger, more talented player.

Question:
If Uehara returns in September, will he get a chance at the rotation?

Answer:
It is possible that Uehara could get a few starts as the team attempted to avoid piling innings on their younger starters; but that seems unlikely to me. Knowing he is back for 2010, and unlikely to start for the O’s then, I would think the organization would prefer to see him out of the bullpen in preparation for next-year.

Question:
How will Brandon Snyder finish at AAA Norfolk?

Answer:
It has been a rough transition to AAA for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting in 4 consecutive leagues (HWL, Carolina, AFL, Eastern), I have little doubt about his ability to hit. I think he was pressing a bit to perform. As the games pile on, and he thinks less, I think he will produce more. This is a huge story to follow, as his production the next 6 weeks could go a long way to determining if he will get the option to start 2010 as the O’s 1st-baseman, or if the organization will send him back to AAA to start the year.

Question:
What are you looking to see from David Hernandez?

Answer:
Hernandez has made 5 ML starts, and could be in-line for 13-15 more this year. In his last 3 starts, he has pitched 18.1 innings, allowed 19 hits, 7 walks, with 8 k’s. I will be looking his velocity the first-time through the line-up vs. the 2nd, will be looking to see if he can get batters to chase his fast-ball. Will be looking to see if he improves, or hits a wall. He pitched 141 innings in 2008, so 160-165 combined innings in 2009 is a reasonable goal.

Question:
Thoughts on Matt Albers?

Answer:
Albers was sent back to the Minors on April 27th with a 7.71 era. He rejoined the team May 22nd, and has lowered his era to 3.58. After holding hitters to a .657 OPS in 2008, hitters have a .719 OPS against in 2009. In 2008, Albers was actually better vs. lefties in basically an equal amount of at-bats. In 2009, this has been reversed to more normal expectations.
He has pitched over 100 innings 3 times in his professional career, so overall I like his arm-strength in the pen. That said, I would be a bit concerned about his use the remainder of 2009. In 2008, he missed the 2nd-half with the labrum injury, finishing with 49 total innings of work. In 2009, Albers has already pitched a combined 45.2 innings. Between the combination of increased innings, and some lingering concern over the injury – I would limit Albers to 1 inning outings in the 2nd-half, and try and avoid work on successive days. I would additionally concentrate on not getting him up multiple times. Combining with Johnson and Sherrill, Albers is an extremely valuable piece to the bullpen puzzle. You need him to end 2009 healthy, and have another full off-season of strength building.

Question:
Is Nick Markakis a legitimate star?

Answer:
There is no doubt that 2009 has been somewhat disappointing for Nick Markakis. After a .897 OPS in 2008, he had a .790 OPS in the 1st-half of 2009. In 2008, he had 99 walks, and 113 k’s. In 2009 he has 31 walks, and 56 k’s. There is even talk that the defensive metrics show a vast drop in his defensive range this year.
Players occasionally have lost years. Perhaps that is what has happened to Markakis in 2009. If this is a ‘horrible’ year for Nick, I will take it. The fact is Markakis does not turn 26 until November, and has not yet reached his prime. He has an .841 life-time OPS, 618 career hits, and a .298 life-time average. Every team the O’s play against, know better than to test the arm of Markakis. The balls that do get past him, he always seems to hit the next base or his cut-off on a line. For him, Markakis had a poor 1st half, but that does not change who he is as a whole. He is one of the best, most under-rated all-around players in the game today. Frankly, he has struggled for the past 260 at-bats, and still has decent numbers. Things even out in baseball, and you typically finish around career norms. I expect a dominating 2nd-half out of Number 21.

Question:
Will the O’s approach Adam Jones about a contract extension prior to the end of the season?

Answer:
Probably not. Jones is not a FA until the 2014 season, so it is not like the O’s have to rush to get something done. On the other-hand, the basic perimeters of an extension for Jones should be pretty easy to come to. Despite struggling through the past 130 at-bats, Jones still has strong numbers across the board. Beyond his physical tools, I think you want to reward a player like Jones who talks about being proud to represent the City of Baltimore. Jones turns 24 on August 1st, and I would love to see the Organization give him a bday present that locks him up through the 2016 season.