Thoughts on Ravens vs. Raiders

In 2001, the Baltimore Ravens had to beat the Raiders in Oakland to advance to the Super Bowl. In 2010, the Ravens will have to win in Oakland to advance to the AFC Playoffs.

Oakland might only have 5 wins for the season, but their wins over Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Denver have shown they are capable of leaping-up and biting a better team once in awhile. As always in the NFL, there are a lot of players and coaches on that Raiders sideline playing for their respective futures. That could lead to desperation, and playing over their head for a game; especially if Baltimore was already mentally preparing for the playoffs.

Still, that should not happen. For all the heat Coach Harbaugh has recently taken, it would be hard to argue that he has not won the games he is supposed to have won.

Here are a few things that I will be looking for:

1) Former Brown Charlie Frye will be making his 3rd consecutive start for the Raiders at QB. It really has zero relevance on tomorrow, but I remember a Frye start against Baltimore in 2006, where he threw for 298 yards, despite being sacked 7 times. Of greater relevance is that Frye is coming off a Week 16 performance where he threw for 333 yards against his former Browns team. He was also sacked 4 times, and had 3 throws picked off. Frye had 45 attempts last week. I have to imagine that for Oakland to have a shot tomorrow, it will be because they find a way to have success running the ball.

2) Darrius Heyward-Bey has had a horrible rookie season. From the moment the Raiders drafted him 7th overall as opposed to the mid-to-late 1st round selection most rated him; he has been under a lot of scrutiny. Heyward-Bey can not hide from his own drops, as they are his own responsibility. I am not sure I understand why his injuries, and the lack of development from Russel does not help explain some of the lack of production.

I do not believe Heyward-Bey played at all during December, and he remains questionable for tomorrow with his foot injury. If he gets on the field, I can see the product of McDonough, and the University of Maryland be motivated to attempt to finish his rookie season on a positive note.

Regardless of what he does tomorrow, DHB should look across the Bay to another former Terp for inspiration. Vernon Davis came into this 2009-10 season labeled as a bust. Now in his 4th season, Davis has emerged with 72 receptions and 12 touchdowns. Besides both being former Terrapins, Davis and DHB share the trademark of being exceptional athletes that work very hard in the gym. As long as DHB continues to work, he will ultimately be a success. You can not teach his size and speed.

3) As I said above, the only way I see Oakland pulling the upset tomorrow, is if they have success on the ground. Normally the Raiders have 3 talented running-backs in Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, and Darren McFadden. However, tomorrow Fargas is unexpected to play.

That could allow for a bit of ‘Thunder & Lighting’, with the 245 lb Bush, and the explosive McFadden. Bush has two games of over 100 yards rushing, and is averaging 5.1 yards a carry. McFadden has played in 24 NFL Games, and only broken the 100 yard barrier once, and not at all in 2009-10. I fully believe the 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft is as talented as they come. He had 17 carries in the Raiders opener, and not more than 12 in any game since. With Fargas out, I would hate to see McFadden get extended carries against the Ravens and start to get his confidence going.

If the Ravens can shut-down the rushing game, I expect to see a number of turnovers out of Frye.

4) TE Zach Miller had 9 receptions last-week for 110 yards. That gives him 59 catches, and nearly 800 yards for the season. Clearly he has been the safety valve for Russel, Gradkowski, and now Frye. If you commit to stopping the run, and you double team Miller, that means the Raiders will have 1×1 coverage against their other Rookie WR Louis Murphy. Murphy is averaging 16.5 yards a reception, and torched Pittsburgh a few weeks ago for 128 yards.

5) Enough about Oakland, this game is ultimately about Baltimore. The Ravens lack identity on a week to week basis. I go back to the Detroit and Chicago games. Both games were blow-outs in favor of Baltimore, but were accomplished differently. Against Detroit, Rice, McClain, and McGahee combined for 31 carries and 274 rushing yards. Against Chicago, Flacco threw for 4 TD’s.

The fact that the Raven’s offense can adjust is a good thing. I do not think it is better than having an identity, and starting each series knowing what you want to accomplish. It seems to me that the Ravens spend multiple series a game feeling out the opposition, and seeing where the other team might be vulnerable. To the credit of the Baltimore coaching staff, they have success with this approach. Clearly they make adjustments at half-time each game, and that accounts for the Ravens having the best 3rd-Quarter scoring margin in the league.

Still, despite those adjustments and success, I would prefer to see the Ravens take the field more committed to dictating the action. Not we will see what you do, and adjust; but this is what we are going to do, and you will have to deal with it.

The profile of a team that is capable of winning on the road in the playoffs does not change. You have to be capable of running the ball, and stopping the run. If Baltimore wants to beat Brady in Foxboro (or dream of facing Rivers in San Diego, or Manning in Indianapolis in later-rounds), the best defense against those teams, will be a running game that keeps those QB’s on the sidelines.

Even with Oakland’s awesome CB Nnamdi Asomugha on the field, I expect Flacco could attack the Raiders secondary tomorrow. I would prefer the Ravens use Week 17 to first reestablish the mentality that they are going to run the rock.

5a) That does not mean I do not want to see the Ravens taking chances down the field to Williams, or using Heap to move the chains or in the red-zone.

6) Jared Gaither needs to play tomorrow. He has missed 3 consecutive games, and needs to get some timing back. A strength of the Ravens is Gaither, and Oher at the tackles. It gives Baltimore a great chance to win individual match-ups against opposing DE’s each week. If you do not have to double the DE’s, it gives you extra bodies to block against the zone-blitz schemes which are so popular now.

6a) Ed Reed also needs to see the field some. Mainly to assure himself going into the playoffs. Nobody (aside from Ray) watches more film then Reed. He is always going to be prepared. Even if he missed tomorrow, after missing all of December, I believe he would still have the ability to impact a playoff game due to that preparation. I think getting on the field, and feeling that adrenaline would be good for him though.

Zbikowski has played very well in Reed’s absence, and I think there is something to be said for Zbikowski free-lancing less, and staying with his assignment. However, the recent ‘whispers’ you hear about the Ravens being better with Zbikowski starting are ludicrous.

Reed is one of the best play-makers in NFL history. He is the definition of game-changing talent. If Baltimore were to make a run in the playoffs, Reed is going to have to play his part. My hope is that the time off has made him ‘fresher.’