At the end of the 17-15 loss to Indianapolis in November, I was left with the feeling that the Baltimore Ravens had again proven they could play with anyone anywhere, but had not proven they were capable of completing games and finding ways to win.
After that game, the Ravens were 5-5 overall, with 6 regular-season games remaining to prove who they were. They answered that call by going 4-2 down the stretch, to reach the playoffs. Obviously another message was delivered last week in New England.
Here are my thoughts going into the game tonight:
1) Flacco was not sacked once in the match-up in Baltimore, with Gaither and Oher getting the credit for their work on Mathis, and Freeney. It will be a more difficult match-up tonight with the injuries to Gaither and Flacco, in addition to the crowd nose in Indianapolis. Gaither and Oher do not have to throw another shut-out, but they have to win their individual match-ups. If Flacco can not be up-right on passing downs, the Ravens can not win.
1a) LJ Smith had time against the Colts in Baltimore, and that 2 TE set helped Gaither and Oher. I think you see a lot of the jumbo package today, with Chester as the 2nd TE, and McClain in the backfield.
2) Manning does not need much time to score, so you could dominate time of possession, and still lose. (See Indianapolis vs. Miami earlier this season) Still, if Manning is on the sideline, he can not score. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Baltimore wins without having long time consuming drives.
3) The Ravens had 4 possessions where they reached at-least the Colts 34 yard-line in Baltimore, and came away with just a FG each time. It was reminiscent of the playoff loss to the Colts several years prior. You can not settle for Field Goals against Manning, and expect to leave his building with a win.
4) Derrick Mason lit the Colts up for 9 catches, for 142 yards in the previous match-up. If Indy overloads the box to combat the Ravens run offense, he might be able to exploit the Colts defense in man-coverage on the outside.
5) Suggs missed the previous game, in what was his first game missed of his career. His return should help. In Suggs’ place that day was Paul Kruger. Kruger was deactivated against the Patriots, is he activated today based on the experience he gained first-hand against the Colts? Can Suggs, Kruger, and Barnes make Manning uncomfortable on passing downs?
5a) While Suggs, Kruger, and Barnes could bring pressure from the outside, I think you have to get a pass-rush up the middle, to limit Manning from being able to step-up in the pocket. Ngata played against the Colts after missing the two games prior to that. Perhaps due to rust, he was a bit of a non-factor. Is Ngata better prepared to be a playmaker today?
6) Will the Ravens defense be able to keep the Colts offense in-front of them? Manning loves to stretch a defense, and take opportunities down the field. When he does that, can the Ravens keep the Colts receivers in-front of them? You have to make Indianapolis earn their way down the field, and prevent them for gaining chunks of yards at a time.
7) The Ravens held Dallas Clark to 1 catch, for 3 yards and a TD. I think the Ravens will need similar results today. You take away Clark, you double Wayne, and you make another WR beat you. In Baltimore Garcon, and Santi combined for 12 catches, for 188 yards. If that happens again, so be it.
8) Baltimore was penalized just twice in the match-up in November, and forced 3 turnovers. You will need a similar equation today. You have to force turnovers, limit your own, and not kill yourself by picking-up penalties. This is really true for all games, but especially against Manning. You simply have no chance of beating him, if you are giving him extra possessions.
9) Flacco is going to have to make plays today. I heard Gerry Sandusky this morning say that Flacco does not have to be the best QB on the field, but he has to better than the Flacco that has taken the field in his previous two games against the Colts. I think that is clearly true. Flacco was off the injured list for Baltimore this week, but his health is clearly in question. If his hip / knee / ankle is preventing him from having his customary maneuverability, and ability to fire down the field; you can only critique him so much. However, if he is healthy enough to take the field, you need him to be a weapon. A caretaker of the offense is not going to get it done today.
You come into today knowing you have to run the ball. It is the strength of the Ravens offense, and you know the Colts were just 24th in the league against the run. While the Colts were better against the pass (14th overall) you have to come into today with the mindset of attacking that Indianapolis Secondary. Free Safety Antoine Bethea is a Pro Bowl alternate, but overall that is a pretty limited Secondary, with Bob Sanders on IR.
When the Colts overload the defensive box, I want to see Flacco look to attack. This is Flacco’s 5th career playoff game, all of which have been on the road. The best way the run game can be helped, is if you make the opposing defense respect the pass.
10) Manning had a QB rating of 110.2 this year on 3rd-down. That included 10 Touchdowns, and just 2 picks. The Colts were 5 for 9 on 3rd-down against the Ravens in November. If Baltimore forces Manning to 3rd-down, they have to get the Colts off the field.
Prediction:
I picked the Ravens to lose last week in New England, and they won. My rationale was that I thought the Ravens could win, but they had shown a propensity most of the season of hurting themselves. I figured you had to anoint the Patriots as the favorites, playing at-home, and gave respect to Belichick, and Brady.
I have a lot of the same opinions today. I think the Ravens can win. Top to bottom, I think Baltimore has better talent. I fully expect the Ravens to be in this game, but playing at-home, and rested; the Colts should be expected to win.
However, I thought the Colts made a mistake in how they handled the end of their season. With a bye already wrapped-up, I thought it was dumb to essentially shut it down the last two weeks. The bye was going to allow you to get healthy anyway. Shutting it down, could prove to have just hurt their momentum.
If the Colts come out slow today, and the Ravens are able to grab an early-lead; Indianapolis will have a real fight on their hands. If Manning marches right down the field, you could see the Ravens get out of their comfort-zone and lose big.
A safe-bet would be a close game that Manning wins at-home. As we approach game-time the number I keep coming back to though is 7-0. That is 7 consecutive wins the Colts have over Baltimore. It is hard to beat a talented-team that many times in a row, regardless of whom you have at Quarterback.
Against better-judgment, I am going to say that the law of averages comes into play, and that Baltimore ends that losing-streak.
23-20 Ravens.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.