Projecting the Orioles Opening Day Roster

The signing of Tejada, just further cements the roster we are likely looking at to start the 2010 Season.

Spring Training might alter the team some, but that change would likely be through attrition (injuries) as opposed to performance.

There are a group of players which are definitive locks to make the team:

Infield: C Wieters, 1st Atkins, 2nd Roberts, SS Izturis, 3rd Tejada
Outfield: LF Reimold, CF Jones, RF Markakis
DH: Scott
Bench: Wiggintion, Pie
Rotation: Millwood, Matusz, Guthrie, Bergesen
Bullpen: Gonzalez, Johnson, Uehara

That is a total of 18 players, with 7 roster spots in question.

At times during the past several years, the O’s have shown a willingness to carry 13 pitchers, which limited the bench to just 3 members. As this Oriole team will have a limit of players you pinch hit for – and Tejada is capable of backing up SS – I could see the O’s Front Office brass again considering that option.

I think a 3 man bench severely handicaps a team, and that a 13th pitcher has very limited worth. The pitching staff should be improved to the point where carrying another pitcher is just not needed.

So if you are going to carry a 4th bench player, who are the options, and what do you need?
The likely candidates for that last spot on the roster would be Aubrey, Montanez, Andino, Turner, Moore, Hughes, and Blake Davis.

If you are Robert Andino, or Blake Davis; you wake up this morning a bit more apprehensive about your chances of making the team. If they were to make the roster, their primary position would be to serve as a back-up SS. With Tejada now on the roster, having a dedicated backup SS becomes redundant. You could argue that a backup SS still has some value, if the O’s (and Tejada) show a non-willingness to move between 3rd and SS during the season. You could also argue that the only player in the everyday lineup you would regularly pinch-hit for is Izturis. If you are pinch hitting for him, it is possible you want to replace him the field with another capable defensive player.

If Turner or Scott Moore were to show an ability in Spring Training to also be capable of backing-up at SS, their versatility, and better bats would vault them over Andino, and Davis.

I do not see John (Ryhne) Hughes really having the chance to make the O’s, but he had 63 XBH’s between AA, and AAA last year. The lefty turned 26 in September, seems likely to head back to Norfolk, but if the O’s wanted some pop off the bench that could share time with Atkins at 1st, he would provide an option.

I think Montanez, and Aubrey go into Spring Training with the benefit of the O’s having positive memories of each at the Major League level. That said, Montanez faces the problem that Reimold, Jones, and Markakis are going to play everyday, that Pie is going to be the 4th OF, and that Scott gives the roster a 5th OF if needed. If you go with Montanez as the 25th player on the roster, it is because you can use him at a multitude of positions, and because you believe you can find use for his bat off the bench.

Aubrey showed well in his 90 at-bats with the O’s, he is left-handed, and they like his defense. That seems like the recipe for a dedicated back-up role to Atkins at 1st. Also, as the Orioles will want Snyder playing everyday at AAA, sending Aubrey back to the Minors would just clog things up for the Norfolk roster. I guess all of this is a long-winded way of saying I think Aubrey makes the Opening Day roster.

That means the bench is Wigginton, Pie, Aubrey, with a backup catcher needed. It is pretty clear that Chad Moeller has this job of today. He was invited as the non-roster invitee, and the team loves his makeup and defensive abilities. If the O’s think Moeller’s knowledge of the game, and ability to mentor Wieters (and the pitching staff) means more than carrying a backup catcher with offensive capability; I can live with that.

I had suggested that Yorvit Torrealba could have some value, but frankly as I look closer at their numbers, there is no real benefit there. Consider Moeller a lock unless another Winter has considerably slowed the to be 35 year-old.

So, with Aubrey, and Moeller identified, we are now up to 20 players, with 5 needed. Obviously, these are all arms we are talking about.

Let us start with the 5th starter. To me, I should be able to list Tillman as an absolute definitive lock to make the team. It is going to be difficult to convince me that he has more to prove in the Minors. However, I think there are signs the O’s are thinking of handling Tillman like Tampa handled David Price to start 2009. I think it is possible they send Tillman back to Norfolk with the idea of him coming-up by the end of May.

If nobody was added to roster externally, I think Tillman goes to camp and wins that job if it is a fair competition. If the O’s already have the mindset that Tillman will be going back to AAA, Berken, and Hernandez become candidates to start the year in the rotation.

If the O’s sign Bedard -and Bedard is ready to pitch to start the year – Tillman goes back to AAA, unless there is an injury to Matusz or Bergesen, or Guthrie is traded.

In late-January my best guesstimate of what happens is that Bedard is signed, and Tillman still makes the Major League team. I think Bedard will be signed, and they will go slow with him, hoping to have him back in an Oriole uniform by June 1st.

If I am right, and Tillman grabs that 5th spot in the rotation, that means we are up to 21 players, with 4 spots needed in the bullpen.

As I said above, Gonzalez, Johnson, and Uehara are locks to make the pen. If Tillman is in the rotation, that means Berken, and Hernandez are not. The O’s will have the option of sending them back to the Minors and letting them start everyday. I imagine some within the organization, would prefer that.

Myself, I think adding them to the back of the bullpen, is a real potential strength for the Birds. These arms that should be capable of providing you with a lot of outings, and innings from the pen. Used to going against both lefties, and righties, you do not have to use them as situational pitchers. If I am making the roster, both of them make the 2010 team.

So this leaves two spots open. Already existing are the following candidates:

Mickolio
Albers
Meredith
Sarfate
Simon

The biggest thing going against these 5 pitchers, is that each of them is right-handed, and it seems pretty clear that the O’s are going to attempt to bring back Hendrickson as another lefty. Even if Hendrickson is not added, I would bet that one of the other Free Agent lefties are:

Will Ohman:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player…?playerId=4563
2009: 21 games, 12.1 innings, 12 hits, 8 er, 4 homers, 8 walks, 7 k’s
2008: 83 games, 58.2 innings, 51 hits, 24 er, 3 homers, 22 walks, 53 k’s, .636 OPS against

Ron Mahay
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player…?playerId=3235
2009: 57 games, 50.1 innings, 62 hits, 24 er, 10 homers, 22 walks, 42 k’s, .878 OPS against

Ron Villone
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player…?playerId=3186

Scott Schoeneweis
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player…?playerId=4010

I personally think four of the pitchers existing internally (Mickoilo, Albers, Meredith, Sarfate) have more upside than Hendrickson or these other lefties. However, if Gonzalez is closing, I see little chance the O’s leave Trembley without an additional lefty option from the pen.

My guess is that Sarfate and Simon get looks, but that neither are going to make this team. Meredith appeared in 80 games in 2007, 73 games in 2008, and 64 games in 2009. That durability will make him attractive to the team. However, if Albers comes to camp in good condition, and the rest/rehab of winter has further strengthened his arm; I would think Albers has the edge to Meredith due to pure stuff.

As much as l like the stuff of Albers as a reliever, he does not have anything on Mickolio in terms of ability. I sense that there will be a lot of eyes on Mickolio in camp to determine if there has been a maturation for the soon to be 26 year-old.

All things being equal, I would think Mickolio makes the team. For Albers and Meredith to make the team, I believe it is going to take either an injury to Uehara / Berken / Hernandez, or a desire from the O’s to send Berken or Hernandez to AAA for more starts.

If you have been following along, this leaves me looking at a 25 man Opening Day roster of:

Infield: C Wieters, 1st Atkins, 2nd Roberts, SS Izturis, 3rd Tejada
Outfield: LF Reimold, CF Jones, RF Markakis
DH: Scott
Bench: Wiggintion, Pie, Aubrey, Moeller
Rotation: Millwood, Matusz, Guthrie, Bergesen, Tillman
Bullpen: Gonzalez, Johnson, Uehara, Mickolio, Hendrickson / FA Lefty, Berken, Hernandez

My everyday line-up would be:

Roberts 2nd
Reimold LF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Jones CF
Scott DH
Tejada 3rd
Atkins 1st
Izturis SS

I imagine the O’s will likely not want Wieters to start the year batting cleanup, and will have Tejada much further up the lineup. Either way is livable, as this team is going to score some runs regardless.

This is a pretty solid team with depth (even extending to the Minors with Arrieta, Bell and Snyder) and versatility. There is no reason why this team should not be expected to flirt with .500 in 2010.