Preview of the Terps trip to Blacksburg

The 20-7 overall, 10-3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference Maryland Terrapins will head to Blacksburg tomorrow, to face the 21-6, 8-5 Virginia Tech Hokies.

In previous seasons, Maryland has struggled with the former Big East conference teams, but this year they have beat Boston College, and Miami. It will take a strong-effort from Maryland, to add Virgina Tech to that list. One reason I believe the Terps had struggled against these teams previously, is that those teams typically continued to play a more physical brand of basketball. There had been times in recent years the Terps simply looked uncomfortable on the court. This Maryland team has no problem with fighting, and attacking; even when they give up size and strength.

Virginia Tech is 14-0 on their home-court, including 6-0 against the ACC. After losing an emotional game at Duke, and getting blasted on the road against Boston College; Virginia Tech is going to be ready to play tomorrow. Mike Huguenin of Yahoo / Rivals.com has an article today, projecting the Hokies as an 11th seed in the NCAA Tournament.

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1056854

With a Top 50 RPI (47th) the primary knock against the Hokies appears to be their poor Strength of Schedule (138th). If Huguenin is right about where Virginia Tech projects, than beating Maryland is imperative for them to make the dance.

So, we have established that we can expect passion from the stands, and the players tomorrow for Virginia Tech. Conversely though, there is plenty of incentive for the Terps to leave Blacksburg with a win. The Terps will enter the game with an RPI of 28th, and a SOS of 29th. Combining another road win to their existing victories at Boston College, and Florida State will greatly improve the resume – not in terms of making the dance, but for seeding when they get there.

As the seconds ticked down Wednesday night against Clemson, the College Park crowd took to chanting of how they wanted Duke. That Senior Night game this coming-week is going to have plenty of intensity no matter what. However, for that game to carry the maximum-allure possible, the Terps have to find a way to win tomorrow.

Here are some-things to look for:

1) When VaTech beat Miami at-home January 13th, they were 24 of 33 from the foul-line. (Delaney had 16 attempts) When VaTech beat Clemson at-home on February 6th, they were 38 of 46 from the foul-line. (Delaney had 23 attempts) When VaTech beat Wake Forest at-home on February 16th, they were 32 of 47 from the foul-line. (Delaney had 13 attempts)

These are three examples of the Hokies beating good ACC teams at-home, where they averaged 42 attempts from the foul-line, and 31 makes a game. Delaney by himself averaged 17 foul-shot attempts.

If the Hokies go to the line anywhere near 42 times tomorrow, it is going to be extremely difficult for Maryland to leave with a win.

2) These teams last played on Valentine’s Day 2009, with Maryland winning by 10 at-home. There were several reasons why the Terps won that game:

2a) The Terps were 24 of 26 from foul-line, while the Hokies were just 13 of 21.
2b) Milbourne had 23 points, and 6 boards.
2c) Maryland battled basically even on the boards – 26 to 28.

& perhaps most importantly,

2d) Jeff Allen was an almost complete non-factor, as he finished with 8 points, 9 boards, before fouling out in just 27 minutes.

At a wide 230lbs, Allen (now a Junior) can cause problems in the paint due to his girth. However, at just 6’7, he can often have problems dealing with taller centers. I would love to see Jordan Williams go right at Allen early, and attempt to get him in foul-trouble.

Allen is an emotional guy. Watch him early for a barometer of what to expect all day from the Hokies.

3) The Hokies are a poor 3-point shooting team. In 13 ACC games, they are dead-last in the conference in 3point shooting-percentage at just 27%. Delaney averages 6.2 3point attempts per-game, but shoots just 30.4% from that range. (He made 40% of his 3’s as a Freshman, and 35% of his 3’s as a Sophomore).

4) Which Dorenzo Hudson will show-up? Hudson has scored at-least 17 points in 9 games this year, including 41 against Seton Hall. In the past-two losses, Hudson was a combined 7 of 27 from the floor. At 6’5, 220 he is a physical guard, and it will be interesting to see who gets the defensive assignment from Maryland. My guess is that Mosley will get the nod. If Hudson also has to defend Mosley, I hope that Mosley can make him work. You want to see Mosley follow-up his scoring outburst Wednesday, with another quality offensive game tomorrow.

5) Maryland has done enough the past two-games to beat two quality opponents in Georgia Tech, and Clemson; but did not play overly well in either game. Frankly, I like what that says about the Terps – that they were able to make adjustments, and find ways to win, when not everything was going right. After allowing 48 first-half points to Clemson, they turned on the defense and held the Tigers to just 31 points in the second-half. I want to see 40 minutes of that same defensive intensity.

5a) Virgina Tech has the best turnover-margin in the conference. That means it is probably unlikely for the Terps to expect to turn the Hokies over with pressure, and generate offense from their defense. Still, I would not abandon the press. The Hokies are not a particularly deep team, and dealing with constant waives of pressure could effect their legs later in the game. That said, if VaTech is constantly breaking the pressure, or getting to the foul-line and resting; maybe you just zone the Hokies to death, and dare them to shoot.