With each passing day, the anticipated start of the Orioles 2010 season increases.
Below is a sampling of the some of the Thoughts / Questions / and Opinions that are on my-mind as we move towards April 6th and Opening Day.
1) The importance of this season can not be over-stated. If you think it is hyperbole to state that in a season where contention is unlikely to occur; I would vehemently disagree. I’m on the record as stating I believe the O’s will make the jump from their 64 wins in 2009, to an 82-80 season in 2010. If I am correct, and this team shows the ability to improve by 18 wins – the reasons why they improved dramatically, will be more important than the result of giving the organization their first season over .500 since 1997. This year is severely important to the future of this franchise, because the core of talent you want to move forward with has been assembled and is in-place. If there was stagnation, and lack of improvement, that would be crippling.
2009 was always going to be about introducing players like Wieters, Reimold, Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Hernandez ascend to the Majors. Wins and Losses did not matter, when there was never any hope of contention. By definition, if you are not in position to contend, you are building. The foundation was laid last-year. This year the house takes shape, and tangible improvement is required. Next-year the final landscaping is completed, and contention occurs.
2) Increasing expectations means increasing accountability, and that starts with Dave Trembley. I am of the belief that for good or bad, a Manager has limited impact on the results during a 162 game season. Over the course of a year, I believe a Mgr. likely directly impacts (positively or negatively) no-more than a half-a-dozen games with his tactical decisions.
Where I believe a Mgr. can have additional impact is by the communication he provides to the players, and to the Media. Trembley started Spring Training by telling his players, it is about the ‘team.’ Meaning this is a deeper team than in past-years, and that might effect playing-time for some. Keeping everyone on the same-page, and marching towards the same goals will be important. Conversely, Trembley has to show improvement in using his bench, and bullpen.
In the past, I have defended Trembley for delivering effective communication to the Media in his post-game press-conferences. As the team tanked through another brutal 2nd-half, you could see the pressure building, and he became more defensive. For the most-part Trembely has been good about keeping things in the clubhouse, and not saying anything to the press, that he has not first said to a player directly. A glaring exception was when he threw Pie under the bus during a press-conference last-year. That can not happen again this season.
3) Brad Bergesen was 7-5, with a 3.43 ERA in 2009. He pitched 123.1 innings, allowed 126 hits, 11 homers, with 32 walks, and 65 k’s. He held hitters to a .712 OPS against, and had a Grounder to Flyball Ratio of 1.05.
Kevin Millwood was 13-10, with a 3.67 ERA for Texas in 2009. He pitched 198.2 innings, allowed 195 hits, 26 homers, with 71 walks, and 123 k’s. He held hitters to a .749 OPS against, and had G/F Ratio of 0.80.
Both of these pitchers are going to help the O’s in 2010. Both of these pitchers are going to see an inflation in their ERA, which will be interpreted as regression in their stats. To me, it will be less about ‘regression’, and more about normalization. I anticipate the two combining for an ERA closer to 4.50. If you are an Oriole fan, do not complain about that level of production. If they pitch at that level over the course of a combined 370 innings, they are doing their jobs.
4) In his first Major League Season, Matt Wieters finished with a .752 OPS in 354 at-bats. Against Left-handed pitching, Wieters was held to just a .671 OPS over 137 at-bats. He showed limited plate-discipline with a poor walk to k-ratio, as he walked just 28 times, and struck-out 86 times. Even for a catcher, I found Wieters to be a surprisingly poor athlete. He did not move well, and that was not limited to pure speed. I am talking about his reaction-time, and his ability to turn his hips.
I was so excited to see that Wieters spent his Winter working on increasing his ‘fast-twitch’ ability, and improving his Speed/Agility/Quickness.
I fully expect that Wieters is going to show not just incremental improvement, but the level of improvement that will have him end 2010 as the 2nd-best overall catcher in baseball. He prepares extremely well, and pitchers love working with him. He has extreme power to all fields. Jim Palmer pointed out last-season that when Wieters batted from the right-side, his bat was noticeably slower. I think you will see Wieters has made the necessary adjustment, and will not miss as many fastballs this season.
I’m looking for a .285 batting average, 22 homers, 90 rbi, a .895 OPS, 68 walks, 105 k’s, 30 doubles, 140 games, and 595 at-bats.
5) I keep seeing and hearing some O’s fans suggest that the Front Office should add Washburn to the rotation. The logic of that suggestion is just poor. If you signed Washburn, the outcome would be Chris Tillman going back to the Minors. Anyone that thinks Tillman going back to the Minors is in the best interest of the O’s, is missing the big picture.
2009 AAA Age 21: 8-6, 2.70 ERA, 96.2 innings, 85 hits, 5 homers, 26 walks, 99 k’s.
2008 AA Age 20: 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 135.2 innings, 115 hits, 10 homers, 65 walks, 154 k’s.
His 12 ML starts, and 65 innings pitched were good experience for Tillman last-year. Even if you did not believe Tillman was ready for a full-season in the bigs (and anyone that saw his Sept 11th start in NY should), there are plenty of existing internal options that make more sense than Washburn.
6) Another argument I keep hearing that irritates me is the idea that Matusz, Bergesen, and Tillman are going to tire-out as the year progresses, and lead to another late-season collapse.
To me, you can reasonably expect each of those 3 to give you 170 innings in 2010.
Bergesen:
2008: 159 innings
2009: 134 innings
Tillman:
2008: 135.2 innings
2009: 161.2 innings
Matusz:
2009: 156.2 innings
While I expect the O’s to be very aware of the ‘Verducci’ effect, there is no reason to believe these 3 will not be able to compete the entire year.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.