The calendar has turned to March, and the Madness begins with a clash of Atlantic Coast Conference leaders at the Comcast Center in College Park.
Duke enters tonight at 25-4 overall, and 12-2 in the ACC. In the words of Coach Krzyzewski, Duke is a ‘very-good team, not a great-team.’ I think that is an apt description of this Blue Devils team. Scheyer, Singler, Smith, and the Plumlee brothers are a strong-base of talent. Zoubek, Thomas, and Dawkins give this Duke team more useful depth.
Heading into this game, most people have Duke as a solid Number 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament. They have a strong-chance to secure the last Number 1 seed if they win tonight, and advance to at-least the Semi-Finals of the ACC Tournament.
Frankly, if Duke had not been smacked around by Georgetown on National TV, there would be more talk about the Devils being a National Contender. In a year where there is no National-Goliath, Coach K and his team should have as good a chance as any. To me, their biggest weakness is their overall guard depth. Taking nothing away from Scheyer, Smith, and Dawkins as individual talents, I think Duke could be exposed by a team that likes to run and has additional guards. On the other-hand, in the ACC, and NCAA Tournaments there is an abundance of TV timeouts which will keep the Devils rested.
When the guard-depth of the Blue Devils is discussed, their fans often point to the untimely transfer of Elliot Williams. (Give K credit for allowing Williams to transfer to Memphis to be closer to his ailing mother, without forcing Williams to sit out a season.) While Duke probably would have been better with Williams, it is fair to point-out that Dawkins would not have enrolled early if Williams had not left.
All of this Duke talk aside, I do not care about the Blue Devils. Well, that is a lie, but what I care the most about is the play of the Maryland Terrapins. As a Terps fan, I tend to liken Duke and Carolina to the Yankees and Red Sox. In Baseball, the financial advantages of New York and Boston will allow those teams to be perennial-contenders. That does not mean they will win every season, but it does mean they will have a chance annually. Some believe the Orioles will never be able to contend with those teams. To me, the O’s just have to be consistently smarter with the resources they do have. Also, it is important to remember that the Yankees, and Boston are at a of point of maintaining, not improving. The Yanks won 103 games, and the World Series last-year; you can not improve on that. As the O’s improve, they will eat into those wins.
Similarly, Duke (at-least as long as Coach K is on the bench), and UNC are always going to be blue-blood programs; not just in the ACC, but through-out College basketball. While there might be the occasional off-year (ie Carolina this season), they will always come-back. The Tar Heels have won 2 National Titles in 4 seasons, and if Ed Davis returns to Chapel Hill next-year, and is teamed with Harrison Barnes; they can contend again.
That does not mean that Maryland can not contend with those teams. The Terps have been the 3rd best ACC team for over a decade. Maryland has played UNC basically even for 15 years, and delivered their share of punches to Duke during that time. I care about tonight, not because the opposition is Duke (well, not just because the opposition is Duke); but because it is an opportunity for Maryland to climb-back into National prominence.
Returning to the National-stage is what makes tonight a must-win game in my-mind. Everything else is secondary. Yes, you always win to beat Duke, and you want to end that 6 game losing-streak to the Devils. Yes, you want to see Vasquez, Hayes, and Milbourne perform well on their Senior night. Yes, you want Vasquez to further elevate his chances at the ACC POY (and dare I say, National POY?). Those are all secondary issues though. Tonight is about moving to 12-3 in the ACC, climbing to the top of the conference standings, and putting yourself in the best position possible to do significant damage in both the ACC, and NCAA Tournaments.
After tonight, we will have an even-clearer picture of where these Terps are as a team.
Keys to the Game:
1) Dribble penetration by the Terps. Duke has a lot of trees that eat-up space, and clog the lanes. The Terps can not settle for jump-shots, and have to beat their defenders off the dribble, and either get to the rim, or go to the foul-line.
2) Mosley has averaged 18.5 points per game the last two games against Clemson, and Virginia Tech. If he plays with confidence, and hits his intermediate jumper, that will pull his defender-out, and improve Maryland’s chances on the boards.
3) Milbourne has been held under 10 points in 4 consecutive-games. Most of the Senior night focus will be on Vasquez, but the Terps need Milbourne to score, and battle on the boards. To me, he has clearly tired out some after battling bigger, stronger PF’s all year. 25 minutes sounds about ideal for him tonight.
4) Tucker and Bowie need to be strong off the bench. Duke has the advantage in depth inside, but Maryland has the overall edge at Guard (Vasquez, Hayes, Mosley, Tucker, Bowie vs. Scheyer, Smith, Dawkins) if Tucker and Bowie perform at the levels they are capable of.
4a) Gregory (and Padgett if called on) need to rebound, and block-shots. As always, scoring is a bonus, but they have to make a difference on the glass. Zoubek was simply to big for Gregory to defend around the basket, and I would like to see Padgett get the opportunity.
5) In the previous 4 games, Maryland has had a half-time lead just once (2 points over Georgia Tech). Terps need a strong first 20 minutes, and can not afford to again play from behind.
6) Nolan Smith was quoted earlier this year talking about Duke on the road. Stating how shooting can be more difficult, but that you can always control your defensive intensity. This game means plenty to the Devils, and they will be ready to play defense tonight. The Terps will have to earn a victory tonight, it will not be handed to them because it is Senior night (see Battier). Like Duke, Maryland is not a ‘great team, they are a very good team.’ They are also a team with limitations, limitations that get exposed when they do not play to their identity. The atmosphere will be crazy tonight, and Maryland has to focus playing their game, and not trying to do things they do not normally do.
7) Coach K made a great tactical move in Durham, by inserting Zoubek into the starting line-up. Expect Gary Williams to have put his stamp on the game tonight with a number of adjustments of his own.
Terps 89 Duke 80
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.