The Tournament (any tournament) is always about finding a way to survive and advance. Win by 1, or win by 50 – all that matters is finding a way to win, and move on to the next-round. Any Coach will tell you that a sure recipe for disaster is not focusing on the game at-hand (see Georgetown yesterday).
With that in-mind, I understand that University of Maryland and Coach Gary Williams has his entire focus on tonight in the first-round match-up against the University of Houston.
However, I am not a Coach – so I can look ahead all I want. I respect Houston Coach Tom Penders – who has the same amount of career wins (648) as Williams. I even have some respect for Conference USA. To me, CUSA is one of those conferences (similar to the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Western Athletic) that is not a true-major Conference, but is also a clear step above mid-major Conferences as well.
The Cougars beat two solid teams in Memphis, and UTEP a total of 4 times. They beat Oklahoma in December, when the Sooners were healthy. They have Aubrey Coleman and his 25.6 points per game (including 8 games of 30+) and they also have Kelvin Lewis who has averaged 15.3 points per game this year, including 28 in the Conference Championship vs. UTEP.
If Maryland does not come-out early and punch Houston in the mouth, the Cougars have the athleticism to make this a game late. I do not think that is going to happen. While some Maryland fans still have images of Santa Clara and the College of Charleston dancing in their heads, I’m going to spend more time thinking of Gary’s 9 straight Opening Round wins.
The most important thing in tournaments is not seeding, but match-ups. Houston wants to run, and they do not play defense. Advantage Maryland. Terps are going to score at-will, and roll tonight to a solid 12-16 point win.
If that happens, and Michigan State gets past New Mexico State (and I do think an upset is possible there), this will have the Terps facing Tom Izzo and the Spartans Sunday.
If this game comes to fruition, it will be a pick’em game on the Vegas line, with most analysts leading towards Izzo’s NCAA Tournament success. His 5 Final Four’s (including the Championship game) last-year speaks for itself. The Spartans are perceived to be a bit ‘down’, but still finished the regular-season ranked 14th in the Country, 24-8 overall, and 14-4 in the Big-10.
If Maryland and Michigan State lock-up, I think it is going a very interesting game. Their strength (like MD) is their guard and wing-play with Kalin Lucas, Raymar Morgan, Delvon Roe etc. Every Sparty team under Izzo has a similar look. They have good athleticism (excellent for the Big 10), play physical, play defense, and attack the glass. You are not going to run an Izzo team off the floor, unless you have superior athletic talent that has a great shooting night (Carolina both games last year).
While I fully acknowledge that Michigan State has plenty going for them – Izzo, a team with the experience of reaching the NCAA final last-year; I would still really like Maryland’s chances Sunday. I see vulnerability for the Spartans inside, and believe Jordan Williams has a chance to feast. Additionally, Maryland has some recent familiarity against the Spartans.
In the Freshman season for Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes; the Terps beat the Spartans 62-60 at Madison Square Garden. Last-year the Terps rolled to an 18 point win over #5 Michigan State. (Side-note Braxton Dupree, and Dave Neal combined for 24 points and 11 boards.)
Vasquez did little that game, which I think is a good-sign for Maryland. The idea being that it did not take a super-human effort from Vasquez to beat the Spartans. Though Michigan State could argue they got little from Lucas that day. Perhaps of greater importance, Maryland competed on the boards (losing 35-33). Yes, Michigan State was missing Suton, but the Terps were starting Neal. The Terps also only had 10 turnovers, which would be a key to replicate.
If I was smarter, I would say that let us just focus on Houston tonight, and see what happens Sunday. Since I am not claiming to be intelligent, I am going to say I expect two-wins for the Terps this weekend, and for Kansas to get everything they can handle from the Terrapins next-week.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.