The Orioles had their first losing month of the season in July going 12-13. The club was outscored by eight runs during the month so their record just about matched up with their run differential. The Orioles lost a lot of ground during the month as their three main AL East rivals the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays all had winning months. The Rays were an outstanding 21-5 during the month gaining 8.5 games on the Orioles. That just goes to show you how much things can change in one month’s time. And it wasn’t even a full month with the four day break for the All Star Game in the middle of July.
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July was easily the Orioles worst month for offense so far this season. So while the starting pitching seemed to settle down and perform well, the Orioles didn’t win a lot of games because they only scored 3.76 runs per game during the month. We’ve already seen the Orioles perform better at the plate over the first couple of games during August, and it’s likely that this was just a one month blip on the radar. However, you can see from the chart below how much the Orioles offense struggled during the month.
While we know the Orioles struggled as a whole during the month, lets take a look at the individual performances to see who struggled the most and who still hit well.
Interestingly enough the first hitter on our list had a solid month at the plate. Matt Wieters compiled a .346 wOBA for the month, which is impressive for a catcher. He also walked in 10% of his plate appearances for the month, which was his best rate this season. Even with the success, only 10.6% of his batted balls were line drives while a full 53% were fly balls. This approach could lead to more home runs but probably fewer base hits.
As I pointed out last month, Davis’s plate approach that was so pristine early in the season has started to erode. For the first time over a whole month this season, Davis struggled at the plate. Even though he still popped seven home runs, he only batted .211 with a .294 on base percentage. His 40% strikeout rate during the month was the primary cause of the low batting average and on base percentages. July was also the first month of the 2013 season that Davis has had an OPS of less than 1.000 (it was .794). That’s pretty amazing in and of itself.
While the strikeout rate is concerning, when Davis did make contact with the ball, he hit it hard. He had a 26% line drive rate and 35% of his fly balls went for home runs. The reason for the high strikeout rate is three fold. He swung at a high percentage of pitches outside the strike zone (37.7%), he didn’t make contact with those pitches very often (49.5%) and when he did swing at strikes, he swung and missed at them a ton (18.4%). The swinging strike rate was about twice the league average. Because of this approach and his success, he has started to see many less pitches in the strike zone than the average hitter. It’s time for him to make an adjustment to his approach and I think he will.
In a feat which I’m sure surprised many O’s fans and maybe even Roberts himself, Roberts played a full month for the team without getting hurt. While that is impressive, his performance at the plate wasn’t. He had an OPS of just .602 and a wOBA of just .266. It’s still a small sample but his performance this season has been in line with the dismal short spells we saw from him in 2011 and 2012. The one bright spot from him has been his performance against righties. He has a wRC+ of exactly 100 versus righties, which is league average after park and league effects are considered. On the other hand, he only has a 32 wRC+ versus lefties. Perhaps, he should start to take a seat against lefties.
J.J. Hardy had an almost identical month to his line from April after a very good May and June. Unfortunately, he wasn’t so good in April.
April: .202/.243/.327 .251 wOBA
July: .202/.260/.326 .257 wOBA
The other thing he had in common with April was an extremely low BABIP. His BABIP for the month of July was just .200. However, with a line drive rate of just 9% for the month it’s likely he deserved it and we can’t just blame it on the luck dragons. Either way, look for him to rebound over the rest of the season and go back to his low average and low OBP, but good slugging self.
Manny Machado had easily his worst month of the season during July. It was the first month of the season that he didn’t bat over .300 and he didn’t even come close at .196. Dips in batting average happen but when he’s only walking at a 3.7% clip, he ends up with a .226 OBP for the month. After maintaining a record setting doubles pace over the first three months of the season, shockingly he only hit one double over the entire month of July. While he’s still playing stellar defense, his performance at the plate is starting to wane. It’s possible that he’s starting to wear down a little bit in his first full season in the major leagues. It’s a grind that is hard to be prepared for.
McLouth had a solid month though you wouldn’t know it if you only looked at the numbers they show you on the tv broadcast. He didn’t hit any home runs, only drove in two runs and only stole one base. What those numbers don’t tell you is that he had seven doubles and three triples, which contributed to a .149 ISO. With a 109 wRC+ for the month, he provided solidly above average offense through the strength of his ten extra base hits. He also had an outstanding 31.5% line drive rate for the month, and solid plate discipline.
Adam Jones had the best month of any Orioles hitter during July. Whether or not this had anything to do with him deciding it was ok to take a few walks, I don’t know. But I’d like to think that had a little something to do with it. He took seven walks during the month, which led to a 6.7% walk rate. This was after going about six weeks without drawing a single walk. That streak ended on the birthday of American independence. Interestingly enough, he had the same amount of home runs as walks for the month.
Jones doesn’t need to draw a ton of walks to be successful. He has enough power and enough of a well-rounded game where he can be a good player without a lot of walks. But he needs to take just enough of them where pitchers feel they have to throw him strikes to get him out. He now has a 3.2% walk rate for the year, which is the second lowest rate in the league for qualified batters. If he could get that up to 5-6%, I think he’d get better pitches to hit when he gets deep in counts.
Nick Markakis had a strange month. You look at his slash line above and his batting average looks normal, his on base percentage looks normal, but then you see a slugging percentage of only .326. His ISO for the month was a paltry .021. He had a lot of line drives and ground balls, which lead to base hits but had very few fly balls (25%). Fly balls lead to extra base hits, of which he only had two. His lack of extra base hits led to a 93 wRC+, which is below league average offense even though he hit .305 for the month. That’s a pretty empty batting average.
Shortly after playing in the Futures Game on the Sunday before the All Star break, the Orioles called up 26 year old Henry Urrutia to shore up their DH position. As a left handed hiter, he’s been starting solely against right handed pitching. The positive for Urrutia is that he batted .310 for the month. The negative for Urrutia is that his on base percentage was also .310 for the month. It was only 29 at bats but Urrutia didn’t take a single walk or have a real extra base hit. He did have a triple but it was a line drive that bounced in front of a diving David Lough of the Royals that he missed. The ball rolled to the wall and Urrutia strolled into third.
Without a single walk or true extra base hit, it appears that Urrutia may need more seasoning in the minors. Since he’s not a great defender, he’s been DH’ing and hasn’t been providing value on that side of the ball either. He’s also something less than a good baserunner. Thankfully, Wilson Betemit has started his rehab assignment and it’s likely he takes over the Orioles DH job against right handed pitching when he’s healthy. When Betemit gets back, we’ll probably see Urrutia head back to AAA to work on his game.
The Orioles didn’t add any hitters at the trade deadline. The club felt it was more of a pressing issue adding to the pitching staff and added Scott Feldman, Francisco Rodriguez, and Bud Norris. You can read about each of those trades in previous pieces on BSL. But the club’s front office felt that they had enough firepower in the dugout to take care of business on the offensive side of the ball. The only bat that will likely be added is Betemit’s. As long as the dip in run scoring the Orioles saw during July is a one month blip and not a trend, that strategy should work out just fine.
Kevin was the owner of the Orioles blog Eutaw Street Blues. He had operated the site since the beginning of the Orioles magical 2012 season. He tends to focus on sabermetric analysis of the Orioles and their minor league affiliates. He balances his analysis between what he sees with his eyes and what the analysis of the data says. The Columbia, MD native attended the University of Colorado at Boulder while obtaining a Bachelors of Science degree in Business Administration. He also attended Loyola University Maryland obtaining the degree of Masters of Business Administration. When Kevin is not reading or writing about baseball, he finds time to work at M&T Bank.