Terps Basketball in 2010-11

The 2009-10 Maryland Terrapins season has now ended, and that means focus turns to next-year.
While the Terps can feel good about getting to the tournament for the 3rd-time in 4 years, and winning 13 Atlantic Coast Conference games; what matters starting now is turning the page.

That is the cruel reality of College athletics. As much of an imprint as Greivis Vasquez put on the program, his time in a Terps uniform is now over. The Terrapins are going to have a deep roster next-season, but the difference between an NIT bid, and reaching the Tournament for the 4th time in 5 years is going to be thin.

Based on what I see as the depth of the roster, and the growth I project for several key-parts; I like Maryland’s chances to get back to the dance next-year.That said, it will not be an easy road.

Below is a look at how the roster could look, and several of my immediate questions and projections.
As of today, I think you have to project Bowie, Tucker, and Gregory to join Mosley and Williams in the starting-lineup to begin the year. I tend to believe that Bowie and Gregory will not end the year as starters, but their Senior experience will give them the first-crack.

You will note that for now I am including Steve Goins. There appears to be almost-zero chance at his return. With teams allowed to have 13 players under-scholarship, there would be two-openings if Goins departed.
As the Terps already have 5 incoming Freshman, it is very unlikely they would add a 6th to that one-class. It is very possible that Maryland could add a JUCO PF/C to add to the post-rotation.

2010-11 Terps:

1) Bowie (Senior), Stoglin (Frosh)
2) Tucker (Senior), Howard (Frosh)
3) Mosley (Junior), Parker (Frosh), Palsson (Frosh)
4) Gregory (Senior), Pankey (Frosh)
5) Williams (Soph), Padgett (Soph), Goins (Junior)

Questions / Projections

1) There is a lot of hand-wringing from Maryland fans that Bowie is not a legitimate point-guard. Okay, I agree. He is SG, in a PG body. He also will be a Senior, and Gary Williams has a major bias to his 4 year players. Bowie does have good quickness, and an ability to drive. Bowie came into today, hitting 39% from 3 point-land. With 2 makes in 3 attempts today, Bowie hit 11 of his last 15 three-pointers to end the year. While his Junior year was a disappointment overall; Bowie did play his best ball to end the year. It should also be remembered that in his Sophomore year, he made 28 starts, and averaged 9 points a game.

Terrapin fans should come to grips with the idea that Bowie is going to start to at-least begin next-year. If he improves his ball-handling, and his ability to make foul-shots, he will get more than 20 minutes a game. If he does not; he will be effectively sharing the position with either Howard, or Stoglin.

2) Both Howard, and Stoglin are described first as scoring guards, as opposed to true PG’s. While neither is described as a superior athlete, they are both supposed to be strong, physical, scoring threats. After prepping at Oak Hill, I believe Howard is going to be more likely to come-in and challenge Bowie early.

2a) I’m very interested to see how good of a handle both Howard, and Stoglin have; and what percentage they shoot from the foul-line. It has been a blessing being able to have Vasquez, and Hayes on the court in close-games; with their ability to control the ball, and make foul-shots under-pressure.

3) I see Jordan Williams dominating inside next-year as the lead option in the flex. He will come back to College Park even bigger, stronger, quicker – and really be set-up for a tremendous year. I do not think he will have any problem adjusting to being the main-option. If anything, I think he will thrive off of that. Where I do think he will have to adjust, is dealing with defenses sagging on him, until his teammates show an ability to consistently hit from the outside. Before Williams played a game as a Terrapin, I stated I believed he could average 8 points, and 5 boards as Freshman. In-fact, he out-produced that expectation as he averaged 9.6 points, and 8.6 rebounds. Next-year, I expect 15 & 10 per game.

4) If Williams will be the Number 1 option, Sean Mosley will be option 1a. Mosley increased his scoring from 5.3 points, to over 10 points as a Soph. He averaged over 50% from the floor, and made 39% of his shots on 7 Field Goal Attempts per game. In comparison, Vasquez averaged over 15 FGA’s per game. As Mosley gets closer to those level of attempts, he should also be at 15+ points per game.

5) In his Sophomore season, Cliff Tucker averaged 20 points per game against National Champion North Carolina. In his Junior season, Tucker scored at-least 8 points 9 times. I fully expect Tucker to be a consistent scorer next-year. He has the athleticism to get to the rim (though he could learn to finish better), and shoots at a high-percentage from the floor 49.7%, and from 3 at 35.4%. There is no reason he can not replace Hayes’ level of scoring (11 points per game).

6) Dino Gregory figures to get 1st-crack at the vacated PF position. Milbourne has spent the past two-years as an undersized 4. Gregory is also a bit undersized, but has better bulk than Milbourne. He does not have Milbourne’s offensive-game, but should be better equipped to more regularly help rebounding, and as a defensive presence.

6a) Padgett, and Pankey will be active bigs that can run the floor, block shots, and help rebound at both the PF, and Center positions. Pankey should basically mirror what you received from Padgett this year, and Padgett should be ready to take the next-step. If Padgett shows improvement, he can push Gregory as the starting 4.

7) Stoglin and Howard are going to get plenty of minutes off the bench backing-up Bowie, and Tucker. In-fact, I think Stoglin and Howard get more minutes as the backups to Bowie, and Tucker; than Bowie, and Tucker got as backups to Vasquez, and Hayes.

7a) Parker has the potential to be a future star, and the athleticism that is going to get him time off the bench. I envision Parker getting time next-year at both the 2, and 3.

7b) I think it will be interesting to see what Maryland gets out of Palsson. Potentially, he might be the best ‘shooter’ on the roster. If that is the case, and he looks confident (physically and mentally), I can see him getting minutes as the zone-buster we hoped Jin-Soo Choi was going to be. If Palsson looks uncomfortable, I would not be shocked to see him Red-shirted.

8) The overall athleticism of the roster will be increased. Tucker, Gregory, Padgett, Parker, and Pankey are all very good athletes. Stoglin, Howard, Bowie, Mosley, and Williams move well, even if none of them are jump out of the gym types.

9) This should be a team that improves month-to-month. Williams, Mosley, and Tucker are going to need to carry the load early. It should again be a team that opponents do not like facing come March.

10) I can see why some will project Maryland as an NIT team, but I think the Terps will be on the right-side of the bubble, and around 10 ACC wins.