Chris Tillman vs. David Hernandez

In my last-post, I used definitive terms to describe Chris Tillman as part of O’s rotation to start 2010. Since that post, I have now read comments from The Sun’s Peter Schmuck, and from MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli who believe the job as the O’s 5th starter remains an open competition between Tillman, and Hernandez.

Schmuck, and Ghiroli are basing their comments on the comments they are getting on (and probably off) the record from Trembley, MacPhail and the rest of the O’s Brain-trust.

If Tillman starts 2010 in the Norfolk rotation, I will be incredibly frustrated with that decision.

My main irritants would be two-fold:

1) I believe 2010 is about winning games, and setting the table for legit contention in 2011. However, you still do not believe you can contend as an Organization in 2010. If you can not contend this year, you still want to give as much Major League time as possible to the players you will be relying on to help you contend in 2011.

2) I believe in Chris Tillman, and believe he is the player more likely to help you (not just long-term), but today.

Let me make a couple of things very clear. I am a fan of David Hernandez, and believe he can help a Major League team win. I have advocated all Winter for him to be part of the O’s bullpen. I think his ability to provide a couple of innings out of the pen at a time, with his power arm would be a real-strength for the team.

I also believe he is capable of being a back of the rotation starter, and appreciate the depth he provides. I have no doubt that over the course of an entire season that he could give you 170 innings, at a 4.75 to 5.25 era. Look around at the projected 5th starters around the American League. That type of production has value, especially at Hernandez’s very limited-salary.

If Hernandez starts to have success with his new-found sinker, the potential is even there for him to even reach a ceiling of a true 3/4 type-of-starter. That is, as long as finds the bite on his slider that he possessed in the Minors.

Wanting Tillman in the rotation over Hernandez, ultimately has little to do about Hernandez. It is about Tillman.

Let us look at the numbers, and compare the two.

Tillman
2009 MLB Age 21: 2-5, 5.40 ERA, 65 innings, 77 hits, 15 homers, 24 walks, 39 k’s
2009 AAA Age 21: 8-6, 2.70 ERA, 96.2 innings, 85 hits, 5 homers, 26 walks, 99 k’s.
2008 AA Age 20: 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 135.2 innings, 115 hits, 10 homers, 65 walks, 154 k’s.

Hernandez
2009 MLB Age 24: 4-10, 5.42 ERA, 101.1 innings, 118 hits, 27 homers, 46 walks, 68 k’s
2009 AAA Age 24: 3-2, 3.30 ERA, 57.1 innings, 42 hits, 5 homers, 18 walks, 79 k’s
2008 AA Age 23: 10-4, 2.68 ERA, 141 innings, 112 hits, 10 homers, 71 walks, 166 k’s

When comparing the two, the number that should immediately jump out at you, is their respective ages. Hernandez turns 25 in May, and Tillman turns 22 in April.

Over the past two-seasons, Tillman has 232.1 combined innings at the AA, and AAA level. Hernandez has 202.1 combined innings at those levels.

Hernandez had plenty of success at the AA, and AAA levels – is anyone going to argue that he had more than Tillman? When you factor in the age-difference, what Tillman accomplished is far more impressive. Which explains why Tillman is universally regarded as one of the best prospects in all of the Majors, and Hernandez is regarded as an arm with promise.

So someone is going to have to explain to me why Hernandez would possibly be in-line to start the year in the Majors over Tillman.

What would possibly be the basis for that decision? Is someone going to argue that Hernandez’s 19 Major League starts, make him the better option because Tillman only has 12?

Is someone going to argue that Tillman’s HR troubles last-year with the O’s is the reason? If so, how do you explain away Hernandez’s own HR ratio?

It would appear that if Hernandez were to win the job over Tillman, they would be basing the decision on Spring Training results. By any measure, Hernandez has had the better Spring.

Hernandez: 1-1, 3.00 ERA, 15 IP, 17 hits, 3 HR, 3 BB’s, 20 k’s
Tillman: 0-3, 3.86 ERA, 16.1 IP, 14 hits, 3 HR, 9 BB’s, 10 k’s

What exactly does that mean? Both pitchers are going to get roughly 20 innings of work, and you are going to base the decision on those results, over their extended professional careers?

Just very hard to understand.

Besides, while Hernandez was very strong today against Boston, most of his success has come 2-3 innings at a time, out of the bullpen. That is not a knock on Hernandez, it illustrates exactly what I have articulated for months. At 2-3 innings at a time, I figured you would see a slight velocity up-tick, and an ability for Hernandez to get closer to the exceptional K rates he showed in the Minors.

Hernandez could move to the bullpen, and be one-step closer to ultimately becoming a future closer. Someone should show Hernandez, Mike Gonzalez’s contract and remind him of the future available to him out of the pen.

If you want Hernandez in the Major League rotation, make a decision to get rid of Guthrie. Guthrie might be my favorite player, but he is the one that should be the odd-man out.

Hernandez over Tillman just makes little sense, mainly because it accomplishes little. Tillman has had at-least equal success with Hernandez at the AA, AAA, and ML levels, while being 3 years younger. You are relying on Tillman to be a major part of the core going forward, while hoping Hernandez could help as a bonus. There is nothing left for Tillman to accomplish at the Minor League level. He needs to be in the Majors, and gaining experience.

My take all Spring has been that the O’s have been providing lip-service to the ‘competition,’ in order to further motivate Tillman, and help him avoid becoming complacent. I hope I have been reading those tea-leaves correctly.