Between today, and May 1st this is the roster I would like to see and changes I would make:
Markakis RF
Tejada 3rd
Wieters C
Reimold DH
Scott LF
Jones CF
Wigginton 2nd
Atkins 1st
Izturis SS
Turner, Montanez, Andino, Tatum
Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Hernandez, Arrieta
Johnson
Mickolio
Ohman / Castillo
Albers
Berken
Hendrickson
Simon
Release Lugo, promote Andino
Release Meredith, promote Simon
Send Castillo back to AAA
Promote Arrieta May 1st
Between May 1st, and June 1st I would like to see the following:
Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Jones CF
Tejada 3rd
Snyder 1st
Izturis SS
Wigginton, Montanez, Andino, Tatum
Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Hernandez, Arrieta
Gonzalez
Johnson
Mickolio
Ohman / Castillo
Albers
Berken
Uehara
Return of Roberts, Turner to AAA
Return of Gonzalez, Hendrickson released
Return of Uehara, Simon to AAA
Release of Atkins, promote Snyder assuming he has started to produce at AAA by that point
Between June 1st and July 31st:
Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Jones CF
Tejada DH
Bell 3rd
Snyder 1st
Izturis SS
Wigginton, Montanez, Andino, Tatum
Millwood or Guthrie, Matusz, Hernandez, Arrieta, Tillman
Gonzalez
Johnson
Mickolio
Ohman / Castillo
Albers
Berken
Uehara
Trade of Millwood or Guthrie, promotion of Tillman assuming he has started to produce at AAA by that point.
Trade of Scott, promotion of Bell assuming he has started to produce at AAA by that point.
By August 1st:
Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold DH
Jones CF
Bell 3rd
Snyder 1st
Pie LF
Izturis SS
Tejada, Wigginton, Montanez or Andino, Tatum
Millwood or Guthrie, Matusz, Hernandez, Arrieta, Tillman
Gonzalez
Johnson
Mickolio
Ohman / Castillo
Albers
Berken
Uehara
Pie returns, and is placed into the everyday lineup. Montanez or Andino removed, Tejada benched.
Overall Rationale:
1)
Started with the roster between now and May 1st, because 5/1 is when Bergesen could next be used. I think Arrieta should make that start.2)
Lugo’s lack of hustle last night, coupled with his non-production should result in his release.2a)
Andino gets the opportunity to show if he learned his lesson from Spring Training.3)
I do not see Meredith ending this season as an Oriole. For the next month, I think the O’s would be better served with Simon’s power arm out of the pen.4)
I expect Roberts to return by early/mid May. With Wigginton, and Andino or Turner on the roster it will be the responsibility of Trembley (or the next Mgr.) to give Roberts more rest than he probably wants.5)
I do not think MacPhail would have been so decisive with his comments yesterday, if he believed Gonzalez’s appointment with Dr. Andrews would contradict the original diagnosis. As such, I expect Gonzalez back by early to mid May.5a)
Hendrickson has never been one of my favorites, but I have to concede he has been very effective in relief. Still, he is not a LOOGY like Ohman or Castillo. When Gonzalez returns, you do not need that 3rd lefty. I also expect Uehara to return around that time. I would rather have Uehara, and Berken in the bullpen then Hendrickson.6)
The total lack of production by Snyder in AAA is keeping the pressure and focus currently off Atkins. I went into the year believing Atkins was capable of a .750 OPS, 20 homers, 80 rbi if he played the entire season. Right now, I think Atkins has from today until the end of May to raise his production significantly. If he does that, he will probably get to start most of June. If he continues scuffle, (coupled with the teams struggles as a whole) and he will be out of a job by June 1st. I figure by that time Snyder will have gotten things together at AAA. If that proves true, it will make sense to give Snyder regular at-bats in the Majors from June through the end of the year. You will want to see if he can improve month-to-month, and be somewhat comfortable with him starting for you in 2011.7)
Between June 1st and the non-waiver trading deadline, I have to think that at-least one of Millwood or Guthrie will be traded. Chris Tillman is going to get things together at AAA, and the O’s are going to want to see him get Major League innings. At the very latest, Tillman needs to be in the O’s rotation during August and September.7a)
If the O’s really want to see either Bergesen, or Britton in the rotation – perhaps both Millwood, and Guthrie are moved.8)
I’m pretty sure that either Scott or Tejada will also be moved. I lean towards Scott, because I think he will be in higher demand from contenders. With the move of either Scott, or Tejada I think that forces the promotion of Bell. Like Snyder, and Tillman – Bell has been brutal so far in AAA. Like the others, I do not see that continuing. Like the others, I think the O’s will want to see him in the everyday lineup for a couple of months prior to the 2011 season.8a)
Once Bell is up, he has to play everyday. As I think Scott is more likely to be traded, that leads me to placing Tejada on the bench come August. As I write this, even I have trouble seeing this. More than likely the O’s would have enough respect for Tejada that they would also attempt to move him to a contender.9)
I’m thinking that Pie should be back by August 1st. When that happens, he has to play everyday. He will have lost 3 Major months of development, so to salvage as much of 2010 as possible for him, you need to see him play everyday.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.