The last time we visited the models, it was the All Star Break. They stood 4.5 games back of the division leading Red Sox and 1 game behind the Texas Rangers for the second Wild Card. Almost two months later and the Red Sox have added another 4.5 games to their lead over the Orioles. Baltimore also finds themselves now 2 games behind the second Wild Card, now occupied by the Tampa Bay Rays. In other words, the team with its additions of Bud Norris, Scott Feldman, Francisco Rodriguez, and Mike Morse have tread water. Treading water is not a bad thing, but the team needs to excel over the next three weeks in order to see post season baseball.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
What do the projections say?
| mJS | PWE | mBP | Parcells | fWAR | |
| 4/1/2013 | 72.6 | 81.0 | 74.9 | 81.0 | 81.0 |
| 4/8/2013 | 73.5 | 97.1 | 75.3 | 81.0 | 115.9 |
| 4/15/2013 | 73.9 | 88.0 | 76.1 | 81.0 | 94.5 |
| 4/22/2013 | 75.3 | 90.4 | 77.6 | 90.0 | 86.2 |
| 4/29/2013 | 77.1 | 98.0 | 79.4 | 97.2 | 90.3 |
| 5/6/2013 | 78.0 | 95.5 | 80.9 | 96.2 | 87.7 |
| 5/13/2013 | 79.3 | 95.9 | 82.0 | 98.1 | 91.1 |
| 6/25/2013 | 80.8 | 85.8 | 83.2 | 88.4 | 88.1 |
| 7/19/2013 | 82.6 | 88.0 | 85.2 | 89.4 | 88.0 |
| 9/10/2013 | 84.8 | 87.2 | 86.2 | 87.2 | 87.3 |
As the season winds down, all of the projection models are settling on the high 80s as the Orioles’ final resting point. This has been the average projection for the club since April 29th this year.
How does fWAR see things in general?
For the American League:
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Red Sox | 87 | 51.7 | 98.1 | East |
| Tigers | 82 | 49.1 | 93.4 | Central |
| Athletics | 83 | 35.8 | 93.3 | West |
| Rangers | 81 | 39.1 | 91.8 | WC1 |
| Rays | 78 | 40.7 | 89.6 | WC2 |
| Orioles | 77 | 35.4 | 87.3 | |
| Indians | 77 | 29.8 | 86.5 | |
| Royals | 75 | 37 | 84.9 | |
| Yankees | 76 | 27.8 | 84.8 | |
| Angels | 67 | 31.4 | 76.8 | |
| Blue Jays | 67 | 24 | 75.8 | |
| Mariners | 65 | 18.9 | 72.7 | |
| Twins | 62 | 20 | 70.7 | |
| White Sox | 58 | 20 | 66.2 | |
| Astros | 48 | 2.6 | 53.6 |
For the NL:
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Braves | 86 | 39.5 | 96.8 | East |
| Dodgers | 84 | 39.3 | 94.8 | West |
| Cardinals | 83 | 32.9 | 93.0 | Central |
| Pirates | 82 | 34.2 | 92.1 | WC1 |
| Reds | 82 | 37.2 | 91.4 | WC2 |
| Nationals | 74 | 28.6 | 83.4 | |
| Dbacks | 72 | 28.8 | 81.4 | |
| Rockies | 66 | 32 | 74.7 | |
| Giants | 65 | 28.7 | 73.9 | |
| Mets | 64 | 27.3 | 73.7 | |
| Phillies | 66 | 15.9 | 73.7 | |
| Padres | 65 | 19.1 | 73.6 | |
| Brewers | 62 | 20 | 70.7 | |
| Cubs | 61 | 25.8 | 70.0 | |
| Marlins | 53 | 11.5 | 60.5 |
Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.