The worst mistake the O’s could make

The worst mistake the O’s could make, would be completely gutting the roster and abandoning the plan.

Some of you are looking at the Orioles ridiculously poor 15-40 (.273) record, and thinking of course everyone should go. Some of you are thinking about this decade plus of futility, and believing that the franchise can not be fixed. Some of you actually believe the O’s have been ‘rebuilding’ since 1998.

I’m here to tell you that if those are your thoughts, you are confusing your arguments. If you believe this entire roster should be gutted, you are missing the bigger picture.

Let us be clear on what I am arguing. If the O’s can move Millwood, Guthrie, Scott, and Wigginton and receive decent value back for any or all of them – those deals should be made.

By Opening Day 2011 it is probably likely that the following Oriole players are not part of the roster: Atkins, Moore, Montanez, Patterson, Lugo, Izturis (?), Castillo, Mata, Hendrickson, Tatum (?).

I’ve named 14 players on the current 25 roster that could easily not be part of the roster next-year. If that is the turnover you have in-mind when you think about gutting the roster, we are in complete agreement.

However, when people talk about how everyone needs to go, and how they would start to package players like Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Reimold (AAA), Pie (when off DL), Bell (AAA) Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton, Snyder. – I could not disagree more.

My arguments of why I would not be looking to trade those players now, boils down to several points:

1) You either believe in the talent of that core of players, or you do not. It certainly has not just been The Warehouse that has touted the overall talent of Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bell, and Britton. 3rd-party talent evaluators from all over the game have routinely gushed over this group of players just within the last year.

2) The crux of my opinion builds off of point 1. Similar to stocks, you do not sell players for pennies on the dollar.

2a) You also have to remember to evaluate players in context. Meaning you are never as good as you look when things are going well, nor as bad as you look when things are going bad. You have to look at historical numbers, factor in age and level, and have some ability to project out going forward.

Markakis had a .897 OPS in 2008, and regressed to a .801 OPS last year. In his ‘down’ year Markakis still managed a .293 average, 65 xbh’s, and 101 rbi. This year, his OPS stands at .807. First, I do believe he is capable of more. Second, he turns just 27 this November. The Organization made a commitment to Markakis, and Nick made a commitment to Baltimore by signing an extension through the 2014 season. This is a player that should have a chance to retire in an Oriole uniform.

Everyone in baseball knows Jones has current problems with plate-discipline, and in-particular expands the zone outside against junk. Jones still has plenty of value, and still would have plenty of suitors if you made him available. However, everyone knows he has struggled for basically 500 at-bats. If you have any vision of trading him, you can not even consider it until he goes through an inevitable hot-streak.

Wieters has gone through his 1st full season in the bigs, and has not reached the levels expected of the Messiah. Still there is nobody that believes his future will not be as a consistent All-Star. Any talk of trading him is ridiculous. You simply can not get equal value back.

Prior to his start in NY, Matusz just went through a spell of 3 horrible starts in 4 times out to the mound. It happens. It certainly is understandable during the first full-year of his career. The idea that some O’s fans are looking at his stat line and seeing more hits than innings pitched, and believing he might not be part of the solution is funny. I actually saw a poster on Orioles Hangout suggest the best use of Matusz at this point would be converting him to a lefty specialist.

22-year old Chris Tillman labored through a sad 1.1 innings last night. Clearly there are going to be some growing pains. That said, what else is there for him to prove at the AAA level? He has to take the ball every 5th day here in the bigs and you simply look for month-to-month growth.
If Tillman had dominated last night, of course I would be excited – but the same inverse argument that the Majors is an adjustment would still be true. Positive consistency is going to be hard to find. What we should see during the remainder of this year is ‘flashes’ of brilliance. That is what his track-record, and his arm say he is capable of. As he matures, that should become more common place. His opposing starter last-night (Buchholz) should have nailed those points into the ground. That kid (26 in August) comes up in ’07 and throws the no-no vs. the Birds. Due to the strength of the RedSox rotation (and because they were contenders) he receives just 31 ML starts during the 2008, and 2009 seasons. This year he is dominating as he has matured, and is getting the ball every 5th day. The O’s obviously do not have to worry about contending here in 2010, so give Tillman the ball and hope he matures even quicker than Buchholz. What you do not do, is give up on his arm too early. I read plenty of Boston Redsox fans state on their message boards during the ’08, and ’09 seasons that Buchholz was a bum, and that Theo should trade him. Epstein obviously knew better.

Arrieta went through a 4 start stretch between April 29th and May 15th where he allowed 18 walks in 24 innings. He made a course correction and has allowed just 6 in the 23 innings since. When he gets to the bigs, this issue is still going to exist. The hitters in the bigs will be even more patient and make him throw strikes. Luckily for Arrieta, his stuff is so filthy he can still succeed. In a matter of days the O’s should have Arrieta joining Matusz, and Tillman in the Majors. It might be eventually proven that Arrieta’s future is in the Oriole bullpen, but he has to be given every chance to succeed in the rotation before that is decided. (Please note, I’d be fine with bringing him up to the bullpen to start, and do think that would help the O’s immediately) If you are an Oriole fan, you should be very excited about a rotation anchored by that trio for the foreseeable future. The quality of their arms, combined with their limited contracts will help the O’s for years.

This has been the plan, you do not abandon that plan right before it has a chance to come to fruition.

What about the other players? Are you down on Bell because he has underperformed in 200 at-bats for AAA Norfolk? He turns 24 in November. At age 23, he just put up a .892 OPS with 57 xbh’s over 448 at-bats at the AA level. The Managers of the Southern League named him the best defensive 3rd baseman. Obviously his right-handed hitting against lefties is a current concern. There are those that believe he will ultimately have to move to 1st. His 53 k’s are somewhat alarming. Those questions should be raised and debated. Declaring that he is not a potential answer is silly. In my-mind, the O’s would still be a better team today with Tejada moved to SS, Bell promoted to 3rd, and Izturis moved to the bench. At a minimum I know that I will feel better about having Bell in the system and available to take over the hot-corner. You bring him up, you bat him everyday in the lower-third of the lineup and you forget about him.

You want to package Reimold in a trade now? Why? Explain to me why you would try and trade Reimold now? Other teams are not aware that he had off-season Achillies surgery? Other teams are not aware that he recently had a daughter, and the stress of that got to him? I do not think there is a need to trade him at any point in the near future, but you certainly do not trade him now. He has to get back to the bigs and produce. When that happens, you reevaluate him and his future for this team. He had a poor 83 at-bats for the Birds before being sent down. Still if he goes 8 for 17 when he returns, he will be batting .250. It is 83 at-bats, lets not get carried away. Even during that time, he managed to show decent plate-discipline with 11 walks vs. 20 k’s.

Anyone that believes those 83 at-bats, or his lack of production at Norfolk since going back to the Minors means more than what he has already accomplished at the AA, AAA, and MLB levels is foolish. The kid had a .831 OPS in the bigs, over the course of 351 at-bats. He hustles every play, and he has legitimate power to all fields. He turns 27 in October, and he can help this team for a number of years. He has hits in 4 of his last 6 games for Norfolk, so hopefully he is on the verge of getting back to Baltimore.

When Pie gets back, you have to see him play everyday and evaluate him then.

Bergesen has limited stuff, but what he accomplished in 123.1 innings in the bigs last year was not an accident. Before his injury last-year, he had 12 straight starts where he gave the team at-least 6 innings, and allowed 4 earned-runs or less. In those 12 starts, he had 10 starts where he allowed 2 er or less. In May 2010 he showed basically what he is with a normalization of his numbers. He gave the O’s 6 starts, 38.1 innings, with a 4.26 era. He can help the back of the O’s rotation with greater value than he would return in a trade.

Hernandez gives the O’s a legitimate power-arm that could be a swing-starter if necessary, and could really help the bullpen. It has been just 2 outings, and 3.1 innings out of the pen; but Hernandez has looked great. When he experiences some normal adversity, I am not going to want to trade him – I am going to want to see how he responds.

Snyder? Well, I’ve never been convinced he was a great answer long-term for the Birds. I am convinced he is a better player than he has shown during 2010, and 2009 at Norfolk. He has hit very well in the HWL, AFL, Carolina, and Eastern Leagues. Another player just turning 24. On his own, he has no real value. I would prefer to give him more time at Norfolk to produce, before packaging him in part of larger deal. He has a .313 average his last 10 games for the Tides, so maybe he will get going.

Britton had been scuffling a bit for Bowie, but began to turn it on as May ended. All Scouts talk about his polish. After Tillman, and Arrieta – Britton represents the best arm in the next-waive of potential O’s starters.

Look, every player has a price. If somebody wants to overwhelm you in a deal and send back a level of talent you can not say no to – than you make those deals. In the world of reality though, that is not going to happen. So the worst mistake the O’s could make would be gutting this core for the sake of change itself.

There is talent here, and the O’s should stick to the plan of building with this group of players. At the very minimum, you wait until their performance improves and you reevaluate then.

EDIT: You can follow discussion of this blog on the Orioles Hangout message board, via the link below:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98101