To those that want to trade Jones

There are Oriole fans out there that believe the O’s should be trading Adam Jones. Basically the idea would be to trade youth for youth, but to pursue players at areas of need such as 1st, or SS.

With the regression in Jones’ defense, coupled with his lack of plate discipline – there is sentiment that he should be moved now with his ‘value’ still at a relative high.

I understand the logic, but fully disagree with the conclusion.

I believe at some-point you have to stop shuffling the chairs, and build around a certain core. For me, the core of players the O’s have to move-forward with breaks down to a couple of Tiers:

Tier 1: Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta
Tier 2: Britton, Bell, Reimold, Pie, Hernandez, Bergesen, Berken, and maybe Snyder

You still have to include Roberts on one of those tiers due to his contract. Some would put him on that 2nd-Tier due to his age and injury concerns.

Also I realize that some would have Britton on their own first-tier. That is fine, what I am really identifying is the players you have internally to viably build around during the next year or so. The Front Office has to determine where they place each of these players on their own individual hierarchy.

There are flaws in Jones’ game, but he is a potential cornerstone piece for any-team.

Jones is Arbitration Eligible during the 2011-13 seasons, and a Free Agent in 2014. I guess we have to see if he winds-up being a Super 2 for 2010 as well.

Jones turns 25 in August.

In June, Jones posted an OPS of .952. That was the 3rd-time in his Major League career he had posted an OPS at-least that high for a month.

What he did in April and May 2009, and June 2010 is his current-level of ceiling. What he did June ’09, August ’09, and April – May ’10 is his floor.

He is not as good as he looks when he is going well, nor quite as bad as he looks when he is hitting poorly.

Obviously he is going to have to improve his walks (9) to k’s (70) to ever become a true elite player. Also, despite having range and a tremendous throwing arm – he needs to spend more time on his craft as an OF. We all know he should be better, and I think he does as well. Either way, I am not moving him off of CF yet. Especially if he shows a willingness to work harder during the remainder of the season.

He has a .737 OPS this year (.735 for his career) and at-least has the defensive tools you would be looking for. He has raised his average to .270 (.277 in ’09, .270 in ’08). His OPS is always going to be driven by his average, and his slugging %.

He has not reached his prime, so to me there is reason to believe his overall game will find greater consistency and improve.

Let us say that I am wrong, and what Jones is , is what he will always be. There is still value there. I personally would like to see him extended now, when you could probably get his first 2-3 years of FA fairly cheap. At a maximum you would have a player that finds greater consistency as he reaches his prime, and reaches his ceiling. At the worst, you would have a physically talented player throughout his prime that can be a piece that helps you at fairly minimal cost.

I would guess some would argue that the true ‘cost’ would be not trading Jones now while his value is higher. To me the worst scenario with Jones is rather unlikely to occur, and something we can live with if it does come to fruition.