The World Outside of Baltimore: AL East Questions

With the opening of Spring Training down to days rather than weeks, most teams are transitioning from adding players to solving problems with the players in camp. The American League East Division has always been one of the toughest divisions in the sport, but the 2014 season may be even tougher. The defending champion Red Sox return a solid core and are giving some young players an opportunity. The Rays got deeper and managed to keep David Price. The Yankees outspent the field and come into the spring having signed the top four free agents on the market. The Blue Jays don’t seem quite done and will hope for bounce back seasons from many. The Orioles will also return a solid core and will hope that many of their value free agents signings will lead to improvement.

As competitive as the division projects to be, each team still has a number of concerns that could potentially derail a promising season. With the margin for error likely to be quite small this season, each team must be able to come up with a suitable answer to their most pressing question.

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Boston Red Sox

Can Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley succeed right away?

Of course, the Red Sox have questions about their rotation performing after a deep run in the playoffs. Jake Peavy is an injury risk with each pitch. Just what, exactly, is Clay Buchholz: an ace who can make 30 starts or a talented pitcher who makes 15 starts? Can Koji Uehara do it again?

All of those are important, but the defending champions are set to give two young players significant playing time. Right now, 21 year old Xander Bogaerts is penciled in as the starting shortstop. Even if Stephen Drew returns, Bogaerts will get significant time at third base. As a 20 year old, Bogaerts impressed in limited opportunities. In 18 games, he hit .250/.320/.364, but he gained more of a role in the post season, during which he hit .296/.412/.481 in 34 plate appearances. A plus defender who can take a walk and doesn’t strike out at a high rate, Bogaerts has the skill set to be one of the better players in the sport. The Red Sox will hope for a .260/.330/.420 batting line, some home run power, and close to 30 doubles. That is entirely realistic.

Jackie Bradley was an early season sensation, but the 23 year old finished up at just .189/.280/.337. While he played well at triple-A for the remainder of the season (.275/.374/.469), Bradley doesn’t profile as a star. He is said to be an elite defender and does have a solid track record of making contact and taking a walk. Bradley will be given the starting centerfielder job in place of the departed Jacoby Ellsbury with little competition.

Both players are talented, but both are still raw. More importantly, both are replacing productive players. Bradley is taking over the Ellsbury, who hit .298/.355/.426 last season. Right now, Bogaerts is stepping in for Drew, who posted a .777 OPS and provided steady defense. Both will have the pressure of being everyday players for the defending champions. Both have talent, but both are young enough to experience the ups and downs of a young, first time starting Major League Baseball player.

New York Yankees

Forget Tanaka, can Sabathia lead them?

The Yankees returned to being the free agent giants by reeling in Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka. But, there are many questions surrounding this veteran team that range from health of an older team, returning players from injuries, and questions in the rotation and bullpen. None of that matters, however, if CC Sabathia is unable to return to form.

The 33 year old left hander is coming off of the worst season of his 13 year career. Sabathia made 32 starts and did pitch 211 innings. There is value in that, but his 4.78 ERA and 4.10 FIP read more like a league average starter than the ace he has been throughout his career. His 19.3 percent strikeout rate was his lowest since 2004, while his 7.2 percent walk rate was his worst since 2010. His home runs allowed per nine innings jumped to a career high 1.19. And, his velocity dipped for a third consecutive season.

There was a positive aside from his 211 innings. Sabathia still elicited swings and misses on pitches thrown for strikes at a 14.2 percent rate, which is close to his 14.7 percent rate. Sabathia is noticeably slimmer this winter and will hope that being in better shape will lead to better results. 13 years of 220+ innings may be catching up with the long time ace. But, even in his worst season, his strikeouts and walks were all around his career mark. The only difference in results was his spike in home runs allowed.

Sabathia will have to show he can adapt with age as he is no longer the 96 MPH fastball pitcher. There is still enough stuff to be an upper echelon pitcher. With a longer winter to rest and recover, Sabathia should enter the spring healthy. If he can return to form, the Yankees should be a favorite to get to the World Series. If not and 2013 was the fall of an elite starter, the Yankees will be fighting for the second Wild Card, at best.

Tampa Bay Rays

Can Evan Longoria Stay Healthy Again?

The Rays have the smallest payroll in the division, but enter the 2014 season as the division’s deepest team. Even learning that Jeremy Hellickson will miss the first two months of the season didn’t phase the club as they will reach into their system depth and plug in Jake Odorizzi into the fifth spot. Most clubs would kill for that type of depth. Once again, Andrew Friedman re-tooled the bullpen by bringing in Heath Bell and Grant Balfour. He’s given the offense some useful parts in in Logan Forsythe and Ryan Hanigan. Wil Myers is coming off of his Rookie of the Year season. All seems well in Tampa.

Their most important player, Evan Longoria, played in a career high 160 games last season. Once again, this will be key for the Rays. While the offense does have depth, only Ben Zobrist and, most likely, Wil Myers are projected to be standouts. Longoria finished last season with a .269/.343/.496 batting line with 32 home runs and 39 doubles. Defensively, he was a plus defender, posting a DRS of 12 and an UZR of 14.6. According to WAR, Longoria ranked third amongst AL third basemen while ranking second in home runs.

In short, Longoria is one of the handful of elite, all-around players in the sport. Having great depth and solid role players is important for Tampa Bay. But, the Rays team does suffer when Longoria isn’t in the lineup. He played in just 133 games in 2011 and 74 games in 2012. If Longoria can stay healthy, the Rays will be dangerous as they come into the season with their best offensive depth, a deep pitching staff, and the best manager in the sport. That spells AL East and World Series favorite. If Longoria does miss time, that depth will be pressed into too much action.

Toronto Blue Jays

Can the offense improve?

The pitching staff is a mess and there are strong rumors that the Blue Jays will add one or two of the remaining free agent pitchers. They need to do that in order to avoid another last place finish. But, the offense will need to improve. While Jose Reyes enjoyed a very good first season in Toronto and Edwin Encarnacion backed up his breakout 2012 season, the Blue Jays need to see Jose Bautista fully healthy after undergoing wrist surgery, some sort of production from Melky Cabrera, and repeat seasons from Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus.

Bautista’s recovery from wrist surgery is their biggest question, but a key for the Blue Jays’ offense improving is 24 year old Brett Lawrie. Much was put on Lawrie since his arrival in Toronto. In retrospect, it was too much for a 22 year old to live up to. Over the last two seasons, he has hit .265/.320/.401. While the performance is alright for a young player, he has played in just 125 and 107 games respectively over those two seasons. Lawrie must stay healthy and show positive improvements. A .270/.330/.430 line would be a nice improvement and one that will help deepen the Blue Jays offense.