The Orioles have a chance to redeem themselves after a disappointing series against the Tigers in Baltimore. Can they right the ship and continue to keep some space between themselves and the rest of the division?
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The Royals have had an interesting season in that they’ve actually hit fairly well and gotten on base at a decent clip. Unfortunately, they are hitting for almost no power, primarily due to down seasons from many of their sluggers from years past. With guys like Butler, Hosmer, and Gordon not hitting home runs the Royals have struggled to put runs on the board.
Despite that however, the Royals’ pitching staff has done a great job of keeping them in games, helping Kansas City stay above .500 and within striking distance of the Tigers. The O’s, similarly, have struggled to hit the long ball, something that made them a terror for opposing pitchers last season. As such the offense has struggled to put up runs at times. Over the past four games the O’s have scored 2, 1, 1, and 5 runs respectively.
Matchup to Watch: Ventura vs. O’s Hitters
Yordano Ventura has been one of the more exciting pitchers in baseball this season as he has electric stuff. Over the first three months of the season Ventura’s fastball has averaged:
March: 99.18 mph
April: 98.40 mph
May: 97.71 mph
Ventura also throws a sinker which has ranged from 99.85-97.28 mph and a cutter which was coming in above 95 mph earlier this season but has recently dipped into the low 90’s. Ventura strikes out more than a batter per inning, a bad omen for an O’s team that strikes out in 19.1% of at-bats.
Matchup to Watch: Jimenez vs. Eric Hosmer & Lorenzo Cain
Over 29 plate appearances Eric Hosmer has put up a triple slash of .391/.517/.652 against Ubaldo Jimenez, the 2nd best performance against the pitcher among batters with at least 20 plate appearances (Jonny Gomes is 1st). Another strong Royals player vs. Jimenez is Lorenzo Cain who has hit .417/.500/.652 against the O’s righty.
In order for the O’s to have a shot in the final game of the series, Jimenez will need to limit the impact of those two players, guys who are having somewhat down years anyway.
After giving up no less than 3 runs in any of his first five starts, Jimenez has given up exactly one run over his last three spanning 20.2 IP. He’s also struck out 20 batters over that same time frame. This is the pitcher the O’s hoped they would get when they signed Jimenez, and that’s the pitcher they’ll need to go out and beat a talented Royals team.
Pitching Matchups
5/15 – Yordano Ventura vs. Wei-Yin Chen
Ventura in 2014: 2-2, 42.1 IP, 9.35 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9, 2.34 ERA, 3.39 FIP
Chen in 2014: 4-2, 41 IP, 7.02 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.95 ERA, 3.15 FIP
5/16 – Jeremy Guthrie vs. Chris Tillman
Guthrie in 2014: 2-2, 50.2 IP, 4.44 K/9, 1.95 BB/9, 1.95 HR/9, 4.80 ERA, 5.83 FIP
Tillman in 2014: 3-2, 47.2 IP, 7.55 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 3.97 ERA, 4.59 FIP
5/17 – Danny Duffy vs. Bud Norris
Duffy in 2014: 1-3, 18.1 IP, 8.35 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.96 ERA, 3.38 FIP
Norris in 2014: 2-3, 43 IP, 6.70 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 3.98 ERA, 4.69 FIP
5/17 – James Shields vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
Shields in 2014: 5-3, 60.1 IP, 8.35 K/9, 1.79 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9, 2.54 ERA, 3.17 FIP
Jimenez in 2014: 2-4, 47 IP, 7.85 K/9, 4.21 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 4.02 ERA, 4.27 FIP
The Opponent
C- Salvador Perez, 114 WRC+
1B- Eric Hosmer, 109 wRC+
2B- Johnny Giovatella, 70 wRC+
3B- Mike Moustakas, 53 wRC+
SS- Alcides Escobar, 106 wRC+
LF- Alex Gordon, 86wRC+
CF- Lorenzo Cain, 113 wRC+
RF- Norichika Aoki, 79 wRC+
DH- Billy Butler, 65 wRC+
BENCH- Infante (DL), Hayes, Ciriaco, Valencia, Dyson, Maxwell
ROTATION- Shields, Vargas (LHP), Duffy (LHP), Ventura, Guthrie
BULLPEN- Coleman, Herrera, Davis, Collins (LHP), Crow, Holland
2014 Ranks:
Kansas City
Batting Average: 9th
Runs: 21st
Home Runs: 30th
wOBA: 25th
wRC+: 26th
K/9: 16th
BB/9: 9th
HR/9: 11th
ERA: 11th
FIP: 13th
Baltimore
Batting Average: 6th
Runs: 23rd
Home Runs: 20th
wOBA: 19th
wRC+: 21st
K/9: 26th
BB/9: 20th
HR/9: 26th
ERA: 21st
FIP: 28th
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.