What Are Realistic Expectations For Melo Trimble?

What are realistic expectations for Melo Trimble?

Every time I’ve ever had the chance to watch Melo Trimble play basketball, I’m constantly reminded of one player: Ben Gordon. Gordon, the three year Connecticut guard turned ten year pro has some striking similarities to Trimble; he’s 6’2, a tremendous shooter from just about everywhere, a bullish guard, and plays point guard out of necessity rather than naturally.

(Be sure to discuss on the BSL Forums here.)

The important part outside of striking physical similarities is that, in both cases, neither player is really a true point guard. When Ben Gordon entered into college in 2001, there was a wonder as to what position he would play. His size suggested point guard, but his playing style was more or less a scoring-first shooting guard.

Ultimately, it didn’t matter. Gordon was a basketball player, and some players you can’t lump into categories. Especially at the collegiate level, you just have to put them on the basketball court and watch them do work. Gordon ended up being a fantastic player his freshman year; he averaged 12.6 points and 3.1 assists for the Huskies while ultimately being the second-best option on a team that wound up losing to (obviously) Maryland in the Final Four.

This is probably right around where Maryland sits with Melo Trimble. The Terps are going to ask Trimble to play point guard for them, whether he is one or not. At Bishop O’Connell, Trimble was a point guard only in the sense that he brought the ball up the court. If you’re expecting Chris Paul, you should look elsewhere. Trimble is a scorer first, and a distributor second. He’s not going to be an extremely flashy player that you see stand out in All-Star games, but Trimble likes to score in bunches and will attack the basket himself if a passing option isn’t available early on.

But Trimble has the unique task of replicating a lot of lost production from the Terrapins. Maryland lost about 50% of their scoring from last year, and a lot of that came from the departure of Seth Allen, the guy who used to play his position. Really, fans want to know one thing: can Trimble make them forget about the loss of Allen?

(Disclaimer: as with any projection, this is pure speculation. It’s to indulge your basketball fantasies and at the same time ground them in reality. This is an inexact science meant to spurn discussion, not derision. Comparing a high schooler to a 10-year NBA veteran and All-Star is always a foolish game, but to be clear I am not the only one who thinks Trimble’s game is reminiscent of Gordon’s)

Burn Notice

The first order of business is to establish exactly what role Trimble will be playing for the Terps. We know he’s going to be point guard, but what we don’t know is how many minutes the kid is going to get. Historically under Coach Turgeon, point guards have been a revolving door because of a lack of production. But once Allen got healthy, he ate up minutes at the point position. Turgeon showed no hesitancy playing him quite a bit from the get-go, and that is telling.

Since he’s the only guard on the roster, Trimble’s minutes could be really high. We’re talking in the 1,000 to 1,100 range here; a starter who doesn’t rest too much. In that range, a guard of Trimble’s caliber is going to produce some decent statistics, as he is not hampered by minute limitations. Thirty minutes per game sounds fair for Trimble.

Gordon’s college numbers can be found here.

In about 25 minutes per game his freshman year, Gordon was able to average some pretty decent figures. He came into college as a guy who wasn’t a traditional New York, cagey point guard, though. He was actually a great shooter and finisher. And while every year is different, Gordon still wasn’t a McDonald’s All-American. On the East team in 2001, he couldn’t beat out UK commit Rashaad Carruth (an average at best college player), Alabama’s Mo Williams (a decent college player, but much better pro) or Memphis’ DaJuan Wagner (a one-and-done star).

Now let’s look at how Seth Allen did as a freshman, then as a starting PG his sophomore season here.

While being a McDonald’s All-American suggests Trimble should be better than someone like Ben Gordon, that’s just not always true. That said, Trimble is a college ready guard. He’s considerably better than Seth Allen was heading into college (his handle is tighter, his shot is more accurate, and his body is sturdier), and Allen averaged nearly 8 points per game in 22 minutes of play. Now, both Allen and Gordon were able to play with an NBA lottery pick in the middle (for Gordon it was Emeka Okafor; for Allen, Alex Len) which makes life much easier for a guard. Trimble doesn’t have that, and this could affect matters.

Shooters gonna’ shoot

As I said before, Trimble is a shooter and a good one at that. He’s got a hairpin trigger release from deep and great confidence in his ability to make that shot. A guy like Seth Allen averaged 3 triple attempts per game in 22 minutes his freshman year, but he took 4.5 attempts from deep per game his sophomore. Over at UConn, Gordon took 4.4 per game his freshman year. Trimble is highly likely to fall within those ranges, with more efficiency than Allen (who hit 32% his freshman season) but a little less than Gordon (who hit an otherworldly 41% from deep during his freshman year).

But Trimble is a more complete player heading into college than Allen, and he is very adept at drawing contact on drives to the basket. The fact that Trimble knows how to get to the line will help him become more of a factor, earlier. He won’t need that jump shot to fall all the time; instead, he already has another option to go to. During Allen’s freshman year that wasn’t the case, but as he matured in his sophomore campaign, his ability to draw contact improved greatly. With Trimble, he’s got an automatic size advantage against pretty much every opponent he faces, and while he doesn’t do it all the time, will bulldoze defenders. Trimble isn’t going to get shut down by bigger guards like Allen did because Trimble is the big guard.

If Maryland is looking for Trimble to average something like 12 points per game, then those are pretty realistic expectations for the kid. Allen was a very streaky shooter his freshman year that didn’t play a ton of minutes, and he nearly managed it. Trimble should absolutely be a 10 to 12 point per game player based off where he’s at. That may seem like quite a bit, but it’s not unrealistic.

But can he lead an offense?

While Gordon wasn’t asked to be point guard by Connecticut, and was able to play off the ball, Allen was asked to do so and Trimble will be asked to play the role of facilitator. It’s hard to call Allen a showboater, but the harsh reality was that Allen liked to shoot a whole lot and wanted the ball in his hands often. That didn’t necessarily stunt the offense in the halfcourt, but it certainly didn’t help it.

But Trimble isn’t like that. He’s a guard who is very adaptive. The last attribute you’ll hear from Trimble is ball-stopper, because he understands that to be good, your teammates have to play a role. Trimble is a very good high screen/high pick-and-roll player, and he’s just as good at swinging the ball around the perimeter.

More or less, Trimble is a basketball player in the same way that Dez Wells is. Is Dez a shooting guard or a small forward? Doesn’t matter, because you know you can put him on the basketball court and get a teammate. Same goes for someone like Jake Layman and Smotrycz. Trimble fits into that category of “teammate.” That’s the kind of point guard Maryland needs. The stats may not be gaudy, but the overall play ought to improve so substantially that the stats won’t matter.

You get the feeling that Turgeon isn’t going to ask Trimble to be a specific position. Much like Gordon was in Connecticut, he’s just going to ask him to play the point and not turn the ball over. Trimble has plenty of weapons at his disposal that he could be a great point guard, but he just has to be a great teammate to be considered a success.