A few questions with Mr. Rich Lederer – Baseball Analysts

Mr. Lederer operates the website –Baseball Analysts – which you can find here:

http://baseballanalysts.com/

The critically acclaimed web-site was launched in June 2003, and is extremely thought-provoking.
Mr. Lederer’s father, George, served as the Dodgers initial beat-writer, upon the franchises move to Los Angeles.
Mr. Lederer was kind enough to provide the following answers to questions posed by Baltimore Sports and Life:

BSL – “BSL recently projected the Orioles everyday lineup, and their pitching staff in the two linked posts below:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects.html
http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects-os.html

Are there any projections here you believe to be out of scale? Any projections where you believe I will be positively, or negatively surprised with?”

Rich Lederer – “Let me say this, if your hitting projections come through, the Orioles are likely to win 81 games this year. While I like the team’s offense, I’m convinced that you like it even more than me.

I mean, those are some pretty heady numbers you’ve got. It’s not that Jones, Markakis, and Wieters can’t achieve those marks, it’s just that your predictions are closer to their maximum potential this season rather than the mid-point or what Baseball Prospectus would call the 50 percentile of their range of forecasts.On the pitching front, your guess is as good as mine on Koji Uehara. The change from Japan to the U.S. and from part-time starter/reliever tofull-time starter makes it difficult to project his counting and ratestats.

Similarly, trying to project Rich Hill’s numbers is a crapshoot.As a flyball pitcher, he will benefit from the Orioles strong outfield defense but his health and move to the AL East raise question marks.

I think you might be overly optimistic on his innings and strikeouts and, if anything, a tad pessimistic on his ERA.

All of the other projections seem reasonable to me.”

BSL – “Brian Roberts and the Orioles have agreed to a 4year $40M dollar deal.
Knowing he turns 32 in October, do you believe Roberts is likely to be productive during the duration of the contract?”

Rich Lederer – “I believe this signing was an important one for Baltimore. It’s a bird in the hand, so to speak. It’s like the Orioles acquired a Type A free agent without having to give up a high draft pick. While the recent Orlando Hudson signing may suggest that the club paid up for Roberts in terms of both dollars and years, I believe it was a reasonable decision to lock him up for the next four years.

Roberts is coming off his best season since that remarkable career year in 2005, which not surprisingly occurred when he was 27, the age when many players peak. Although second basemen aren’t known for aging well, I’m not concerned that he won’t hold up his end of the bargain as a a 32- and 33-year old in 2010 and 2011. But those outlying years are a little bothersome as I would expect him to regress in the final two seasons of the contract. Think of the deal as something like $10 million in 2010 and 2011, followed by $8M in 2011 and 2012. If so, the O’s only paid a premium of $4M, or an average of a million dollars per year, to keep one of their best players in the organization.”

 

BSL – “You recently had an interesting article, “Categorizing ReliefPitchers by Groundballs and Strikeout Rates.”http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/02/categorizing_re.php

Based on this, can you extrapolate some on what you think about the back of the Orioles bullpen – Sherrill, Ray, Johnson?”

Rich Lederer – “I think the Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in baseball. How’s that for being candid? Whether using K, BB, or GB rates, Win Probability Added(WPA), or more traditional metrics like ERA or WHIP, the O’s relievers in the aggregate ranked at or near the bottom of the league.George Sherrill was in the southeast quadrant (high strikeout/lowgroundball), but his poor walk rate makes him no better than amiddle-of-the-road closer at best.

Jim Johnson resides in the northwest quadrant (low strikeout/high groundball). His success was based entirely on the fact that he didn’t yield any home runs last year. Johnson’s strikeout rate (13.5% K/BF) is well-below average and his walk rate(10.0%) is slightly worse than average – not a good combination. Unless he can repeat the no HR feat this season, I would look for Johnson’s ERA to jump at least a full run, if not more.

With respect to Chris Ray, I’m not particularly bullish on him in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
I would guard against expecting too much, too soon. That said, Ray is probably the key to the team’s bullpen as he represents the primary change from one season to the next.”

BSL – “Will there be a better OF Defensively vs Pie, Jones, and Markakis?”

Rich Lederer – “The Orioles outfield projects as one of the best in baseball, but I would favor Seattle’s threesome of (left to right) Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro Suzuki. Gutierrez, by all accounts, is about as good as it gets. The scouting reports and advanced defensive metrics are simply superb.

Pie and Jones will cover lots of ground in left and center while Jones and Markakis, both former pitchers, have strong arms.

Baltimore will have an excellent outfield for sure but not quite up to the standards of the Mariners.”

BSL – “The O’s are a much improved team top to bottom, that even in the AL East should be capable of 77 wins, with an outside chance at 81 wins and a 500 season. True or False?”

Rich Lederer – “Well, the Orioles are *capable* of winning 77 games, but I would set the over/under at 76 (with a band of 72-80). I would be surprised but not shocked if the team won 81.

It’s just not that easy to play .500 in a division that includes the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, three clubs that could win 90 games each.

Beating out the Blue Jays and finishing fourth in the AL East is a reasonable goal this year.”