Previously, I’ve made my postseason predictions and estimated the probability that the Orioles win Game 1 of the 2014 ALDS against the Detroit Tigers. Here, I’ll make Game 1 predictions – and evaluate the money line – for the other three Game 1s happening this week.
Note: This has been published without a prediction for the game played between the NL Wild Card winner and the Nationals. It will be updated before Game 1 of the NLDS series between the Nationals and either the Pirates or the Giants.
If you’re late to this party, here’s how I make my prediction:
1. Strip cluster luck from the Orioles’ and Tigers’ expected lineups
2. Strip cluster luck from the Orioles’ and Tigers’ starter
3. Determine Pythagorean win percentage using luck-neutral run differential (I’m calling this Adjusted Pythagorean Win Percentage, or W%+)
4. Determine the probability that each team would win using W%+
5. Determine the implied probability that each team would win from existing Las Vegas money lines
6. Tell you who I think will win and who I think is a good bet. These are not always the same thing.
A money line of 100 is even odds, but that never shows up. Sometimes the line is given in a positive or negative number. A negative number implies a favorite; a positive number implies an underdog. Here are the payouts:
– A money line of -110 means that you have to bet $110 to win $100. If you place $110 on a team that’s got a money line of -110 and they win, you will go home with $210: $110 bet + $100 winnings.
– A money line of +110 means that you have to bet $100 to win $110. If you place $100 on a team with a +110 line and they win, you will go home with $210: $100 bet + $110 winnings.
As always, what you do with your money is your business. What I say is a good bet isn’t necessarily a bet I think will pay out. Instead, it’s a bet on a team that I think has a better chance to win than the Las Vegas sportsbooks do.
Projected Game 1 lineups are below in no particular order as well. That way, you can make your own adjustments if certain players ride pine in favor of matchups. There is a minor adjustment for home field advantage included in these numbers, specifically in Base Runs For the home team.
The money line shown is the line at opening, which you’re unlikely to still get. I’m using it instead of the consensus line because sportsbooks change as people place bets to encourage more betting. In my opinion, the opening money line is the clearest reflection of the probability of a win that sportsbooks have determined. If you check out money lines for yourself, a more negative number than what’s shown implies a higher probability of winning; a more positive number implies a lower probability of winning.
STL/Wainwright @ LAD/Kershaw
| Cardinals | Dodgers | ||
| 3B | Carpenter | 2B | Gordon |
| LF | Holliday | RF | Puig |
| SS | Peralta | 1B | Gonzalez |
| 1B | Craig* | LF | Crawford |
| C | Molina | CF | Ethier |
| CF | Bourjos | 3B | Uribe |
| 2B | Ellis | C | Ellis |
| LF | Jay | SS | Ramirez |
| P | Wainwright | P | Kershaw |
*Typically in RF, Allen Craig played 1B in the Cardinals’ lone game against Kershaw this season.
Pertinent prediction information:
| Team | BsR For | BsR Against | W%+ | pWin | Money Line | Implied pWin |
| STL | 651.70 | 425.15 | 0.686 | 30.32% | +185 | 35.09% |
| LAD | 811.15 | 335.86 | 0.834 | 69.68% | -200 | 66.67% |
The Dodgers play like an absolutely incredible .834 team at home with Kershaw on the mound, or one that would have won 135 games.With the opening line (and the consensus money line, for what it’s worth) at -200 for the Dodgers, implying a win probability 3 points lower than what I estimate it to really be, a bet on LA’s National League team on Game 1 is a solid bet.
The Dodgers have a 69.68% chance of winning this game.
KCR/Vargas @ LAA/Weaver
| Royals | Angels | ||
| C | Perez | RF | Cowgill |
| 1B | Hosmer | CF | Trout |
| 2B | Infante | 1B | Pujols |
| SS | Escobar | LF | Hamilton |
| 3B | Moustakas | 2B | Kendrick |
| LF | Gordon | SS | Aybar |
| CF | Cain | DH | Cron |
| RF | Aoki | 3B | Freese |
| DH | Butler | C | Iannette |
These lineups are the most common Royals lineup and the lineup that the Angels used against Vargas in June. Cain may be replaced by Jarrod Dyson for the left-handed bat, but I’m afraid to make any assumptions about Ned Yost’s managing tactics.
| Team | BsR For | BsR Against | W%+ | pWin | Money Line | Implied pWin |
| KCR | 699.57 | 697.15 | 0.501 | 37.8% | 155 | 39.22% |
| LAA | 885.66 | 682.98 | 0.623 | 62.2% | -175 | 63.64% |
Los Angeles at home with Weaver on the mound is a great team, playing like a 100-win team. While Vargas has gotten great results this year, he has gotten a bit lucky. While the Angels are a pretty solid pick to win this game, Las Vegas opened the money line pretty much exactly where it needed to be for both of these teams. I wouldn’t recommend betting the money line on either in this contest.
Patrick was the co-founder of Observational Studies, a blog which focused on the analysis and economics of professional sports. The native of Carroll County graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Loyola University Maryland. Patrick works at a regional economic development and marketing firm in Baltimore, and in his free time plays lacrosse.