I think it is possible that Coach Gary Williams gets his 8th victory over a Number 1 team tonight in Durham, but I will not call for that.
Maryland has shown they can play with good teams on a neutral court, but have not yet shown they can beat them. As such, I’m not willing to say the Terps are ready to go to Duke and win. I think Ken Pomeroy’s pick of a 82-69 13 point Duke win seems right.
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke
I could see Duke blowing MD out. In that scenario, Jordan Williams gets in foul-trouble early, Duke forces MD into a bunch of turnovers with a full-court press, and the Devils bury a bunch of 3’s.
I can also see MD being in the game. In that scenario, they let Duke do what they want inside, and the Terps get out on Duke the shooters. Williams dominates inside, and Stoglin & Tucker in particular score enough to keep things relatively close. Of course if that happens, Duke just plays Hack-a-Williams down the stretch and forces him to hit shots from the line.
While Maryland was helped yesterday by Penn State’s victory over Michigan State, the Terps still have a very limited out-of-conference resume. The victory over PSU will only mean so much if they finish in the lower-half of the Big Ten. The Terps have another chance at a major OOC victory when they face Villanova next-week. The Terps can end all worry about their OOC resume, if they gain an in-conference victory over Duke.
Even with the Boston College loss at home, I still like the Terps to win 10 games in ACC play. That said, Andy Katz of ESPN made a logically argument that the ACC might be looking at a very limited amount of at-large selections come March:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=5995040
5 Things to Watch:
1) If Duke decides to pressure full-court, how do the Terrapin Freshman (Stoglin, and Howard) respond?
2) Will Duke double-team Williams all game, and dare the other Terrapins to beat them?
3) Singler is 6’8 and playing SF. With that size, that is a difficult match-up for either Mosley or Tucker. Both of those Terps are good defenders though, and I will be interested to see who gets the defensive assignment.
4) Bowie has been playing better since being moved off the ball, what can he provide offensively?
5) The best thing that can happen for the Terps tonight is if this game winds-up being wide open and an up and down the court type of game. If that happens, MD has the athletes and depth to make the Blue Devils pay. MD will have a much easier time scoring in transition tonight, than they will in consistent 1/2 court sets.
5a) Maryland has zero chance at the upset, if they do not win the battle on the glass.
If you did not see it previously, here is my Q&A with Julian King from Duke Basketball Report:
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1840
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.