The Gigantic Preseason Big Ten Basketball Preview

BSL Preseason Big Ten Basketball Preview

(Discuss the article here on the forums)

The Big Ten is arguably the most powerful conference in college basketball. With the addition of Maryland that isn’t going to get a whole lot easier, but the Big Ten is up for grabs this year. Michigan State is “down”, Michigan is “down”, and while Wisconsin remains the looming threat, there are plenty of other teams vying for a tournament spot. This year, it looks like the league may pump out eight (or dare I say nine?) teams.

Will yours be one of them? Sit down and find out.

Favorite To Win Big Ten: Wisconsin

Statistically, there are few teams in the country that rival Wisconsin on a per-possession basis. They’ve got one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the country, play stingy team defense, and happen to be one of the most efficient shooting teams in the NCAA.

Leading that team is the virtually unguardable Fran Kaminsky, a guy who combines a phenomenal interior-exterior game into a deadly package. Kaminsky averaged nearly 14 points per game last season and did so in a hyper-efficient manner (true shooting percentage of 61%). He’s joined by another great outsider shooter in the front court by Sam Dekker, a great outside shooter in his own right. With two forwards who can shoot lights out, they create major matchup problems.

Wisconsin may end up playing with a point guard and four forwards against some teams to create matchup problems and close the pure talent gap. That versatility makes them my team to beat in the B1G.

Dark Horse Contender: Ohio State

You might be thinking that Ohio State is going to drop off substantially from last season, and rightfully so. The Buckeyes lost their top three scorers (Craft, Ross, and Smith Jr.) from 2013/14, and that wasn’t a good offense to begin with (128th nationally). That alone might suggest Thad Matta has a lot of work to do moving forward.

But Ohio State is coached by a guy who has been notoriously good at maximizing talent when it’s given to him, and this team has more talent by a country mile than last year’s. Allow me to make my defense:

D’Angelo Russell is the real deal. I’ve seen this kid play since he was a sophomore in high school, and he’s never ceased to step up his play at every level. Russell may not be a 16 PPG player right away, but he’ll probably average on the higher side of 13-15 points with some explosive outbursts in between. He’s also an elite passer who should be able to get more out of the offense.

Meanwhile, one of the best transfer pickups this offseason has to have been forward Anthony Lee. The Buckeyes got a great per minute rebounder who is also capable of doing some interior scoring (Lee averaged 13.6 PPG at Temple). The front court might actually be better this year.

The shooting has improved, the bench has improved, and Ohio State is typically a solid offensive team. Aaron Craft couldn’t really shoot the ball well, and Matta coached teams love that at the point position. Look for Ohio State to return to their top 12 scoring ways (which they’ve been every year but twice since 2007) than more like the 128th place aberration that was last season.

The Muddled Middle (likely tournament bound)

Nebraska:

Nebrasketball was a pleasant surprise last season for the casual sports fan, and while they won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year, the Cornhuskers should still be a tournament team. A hard-nosed team that returns all five of their starters from the previous season shouldn’t miss a beat. Their coach, Tim Miles, is one of the best in the business at player development, and there’s a good chance the whole unit will improve.

Terran Petteway looks like an early favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year after averaging 18 points and nearly 5 rebounds per game last year. He was a major reason the Huskers won 11 of their final 14 games en route to a rare 4th place Big Ten finish and a tournament appearance to boot. In a Big Ten that has a ton of traditional powers in flux, Nebraska appears as stable as they come and poised to avenge that conference tournament loss to Ohio State which marred an otherwise great year.

Minnesota:

Richard Pitino seems to have put in the work at Minnesota to get the Gophers both over the hump and into the Big Dance. The Gophers return four starters from a team that dominated and eventually won the NIT last season, which should serve them well in going up against the more talented squads of the Big Ten.

But Minnesota also has one of the Big Ten’s best backcourts in guards Andre Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu. The pair each averaged around 12 a pop last season and their workload should only increase with the elder Austin Hollins departed. They’re one of the better passing teams in the country, get a lot of shots off, and should improve in every metric across the board as they gun their way through the Big Ten.

Iowa:

The Hawkeyes have been on the cusp of greatness for awhile now, and they finally broke through that barrier with a tournament appearance last year. Unfortunately, Fran McCaffery could only lead Iowa to a first-round exit at the hands of Tennessee despite a team that some felt was a sleeper because of its depth and coaching.

Fortunately Iowa returns the majority of its upperclassmen and still retains the signature depth that speaks strongly of a program built sturdy from the ground up. Front court forward Aaron White has become more polished every year, and his senior season sets up to be his best yet. The Hawkeyes do lose Roy Devyn Marble and his 17 points per clip, but they have plenty of tools at their disposal which can help cushion the blow.

Iowa is a tournament team, if not a top 25 squad.

Michigan State

Tom Izzo has made the NCAA tournament 17 of his 19 seasons with the Spartans, and expecting that to change any time soon is a fool’s errand. That said, this is the team I’m most uncertain about placing here because of how much they’ve lost. Adreian Payne is off to greener pastures, and Keith Appling’s career is gone as well, so the Spartans have a lot of work to do with their younger guys if they want to remain dominant in the Big Ten.

Branden Dawson averaged around 17 points per game over the final seven games of the season, and seems poised to become a major contributor for the Spartans with Payne’s departure. He’s going to have to face defenses that are designed to put a halt in his play, however, and that’s something to look out for. It remains to be seen whether center Matt Costello can actually step up to the task of being a starting center after averaging a meager 4 points and 3 rebounds per contest last season. If he can’t, questions are abound for the front court without a ton of depth.

In the backcourt, Denzel Valentine and his incredibly athleticism and all-around game offer a glimpse of what Michigan State could become if their younger guys develop. Valentine averaged 8 points, 6 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists per game last year and could be on a lot of lists for some kind of honors at the end of the year should he remain consistent. But Cleveland State transfer Bryn Forbes needs to step up and become a scorer for the Spartans right away or they’re going to have trouble keeping up with the lofty expectations Izzo has set.

Maryland:

Yes, I think Maryland should be able to make the tournament this season. Despite the fact that they lost a ton of depth at the point guard, shooting guard, and power forward positions, the team replaced them with a McDonald’s All-American, a gamey senior transfer, and few other top 75 sharpshooters. Not bad from a reloading standpoint after losing 50% of your offense.

The core group is still sound, too. Senior Dez Wells has still yet to reach his ceiling and his return means he will likely earn All-Big Ten honors. He’s also one of the few players to have ever played in three different conferences during one four-year collegiate career. That experience should help him, as should senior forward Evan Smotrycz’ return to the Big Ten following a season in the ACC. Junior Jake Layman also provides a versatile stretch guard-forward who can heat up from outside and crush teams.

The backcourt has its question marks, but handing them off to All-American Melo Trimble isn’t a worst-case scenario (quite the opposite). Having North Carolina A&T transfer guard Richaud Pack help shoulder the load and integrate fellow freshman stud Dion Wiley into higher level play should help this team early on. At center, highly regarded freshman Michal Cekovsky looks to start right away and by most accounts will be a force from day one as a stretch guy.

Injuries are the only thing that could derail this teams chances. Sustain one at any position and they can probably kiss a tournament berth goodbye. But they’re one of the more talented teams in the nation, and you can bet head coach Mark Turgeon will be doing the job of his lifetime given that he’s on more than a few hot seat lists.

Illinois:

The Fighting Illini may seem like a surprise pick to be a tournament lock, but it’s hard to argue with what they’ve put together under John Groce. Rayvonte Rice is one of the best returning scorers (and one of the best returning player’s) in the Big Ten after averaging 15.9 points and 6 rebounds a contest last year. They also pick up Seton Hall transfer and solid scorer Aaron Cosby (12 PPG in ‘12-’13), and Oregon State transfer Ahmad Starks should be decent as well. On the frontcourt side of things, big man Nnanna Egwu seems set for a big breakout year as well.

The downside to Illinois is that Tracy Abrams, their point guard set to see an increased workload, tore his ACL in September and will likely miss most if not all of the season. That could very well impact how far this team goes, but with the talent they’ve got I look for Illinois to really do some damage.

Reason to be Concerned

Michigan:

Michigan, much like their in-state brother, has had some amazing runs over the past couple seasons thanks in large part to an influx of NBA-caliber players. Trey Burke, Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a mind bogglingly impressive group to have occupy a court at the same time. Unfortunately all that talent eventually leaves, and you’re left with a group that may not live up to the high standards set by the players before them.

John Horford, Jordan Morgan, Glenn Robinson, and Nik Stauskas accounted for 54.5 percent of the team’s total points, 55.8 percent of its made field goals and 52.4 percent of its rebounds. That’s going to be really hard to make up, especially because those numbers were so crucial to the team’s performance. Beilien has his work cut out for him moving forward in coaxing those numbers out of his new group of youngsters.

He has proven to be a phenomenal talent evaluator, though, and I think this group is right on the cusp of making the tournament. Caris LeVert is one of my favorite players to watch on a court because he was a former two-star recruit in 2012, but averaged 13 points and shot 40% from deep last season. He’s also one of the smartest guys you can watch play basketball. He’s an Evan Turner-type guy who doesn’t let a lack of explosive athleticism get in the way of him scoring or helping the team.

But outside of him is the question. Derrick Walton could be really good with more minutes, Kameron Chatman will be very solid his freshman year. Yet this team struggle defensively all last season, and it remains to be seen whether they will step up or not.

Indiana:

It’s crazy to think that a coach like Tom Crean could find himself on the hot seat less than two years after reaching the Final Four, but there have been murmurs of concern about his future should they not make the tournament two years in a row. And to be frank, the Hoosiers face an uphill battle (though one that’s manageable).

Indiana has some major concerns in the front court, with no legitimate threats to be found and the talent doesn’t necessarily suggest it will anytime soon. Based on the tape, Hanner Mosquera-Perea seems as though he’ll need more time, and if that is the case, Indiana is going to return to the pre-Cody Zeller era pretty quickly.

By that I mean they are going to get great production out of their guards, but lack the post threat necessary to remain a contender. Their guards look fantastic with incoming McDonald’s All-American sharp-shooter Justin Blackmon leading the way alongside Stanford Robinson, extremely talented guard Yogi Ferrell, and hybrid guard Robert Johnson. They’ve all got upside, but can Crean coach them up enough to make up for the barren front?

Sleeping Team I Think Makes A Run:

Penn State

Pegging Penn State, the perennial cellar dweller of Big Ten basketball, in a position to succeed seems hyperbolic at best, but this group is actually talented and could surprise some folks. Star player Tim Frazier is gone, but the Nittany Lions have a solid core returning that complement one another well.

D.J. Newbill will never wow anyone athletically, but he’s a fantastic hybrid guard who can pass the ball extremely well (he can also turn the ball over better than most as well) and score in a craftier manner than anyone in the Big Ten. He’ll be joined by a top JUCO talent in Devin Foster and guard Geno Thorpe in a backcourt that will have no problem moving the ball around.

And for once their front court looks decent as well. With Brandon Tyler and Donovon Jack complementing one another well both offensively and defensively.

This team doesn’t have a bunch of talent and can’t really sustain many injuries, but Pat Chambers is a good coach who is used to maximizing output. For one reason or another I think this team might be a threat in the Big Ten this year.

Hoping For The NIT:

Northwestern:

Chris Collins remains one of the bright minds in college basketball, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him if he wants to compete in the Big Ten against a loaded deck. The offense with Alex Olah at the helm was one of the worst in the country, and they brought in nothing to suggest that it will get better. That’s cause for concern among anyone.

Purdue:

In another conference, the Purdue Boilermakers might have been a good team. But only in the Big Ten are you one of the worst teams in the league while also sporting three top-100 players, some decent depth, and a good core that’s been together a couple years. JaJuan Johnson isn’t walking through those doors, but could Matt Painter be walking out soon?

Rutgers:

Rutgers is intriguing because of their combo of Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack (great name, great team, right?), and with a couple Miami transfers this team could make some noise. But Eddie Jordan hasn’t proven to be a great college coach yet, and this team was putrid defensively in a weak conference last year. Maybe there will be improvements for the team, but it’s questionable at best.