The Orioles are coming off the most successful season the team has had since 1997. They have made the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons, which is the best ratio any team in the AL East has in that time frame. They have a good core and a potential superstar, MVP caliber player in Machado if he can stay healthy. They have some young arms that have TOR potential and that can obviously help keep you near the top of the division for a while. The key for the Orioles is to keep this momentum going and continue to get better. The worst thing you can do is be complacent and stand pat. We have seen the Red Sox get better. Toronto added Russell Martin and has now traded for MVP candidate Josh Donaldson. I also feel its fair to assume that the Yankees will use their resources and acquire better talent as well. So, it’s now up to the Orioles to also improve and continue to get better for the short and long term. Here are a few moves that I feel can help accomplish that:
(Discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Trade #1: Send Chris Davis to the Marlins.
The Marlins are known to be interested in Davis and desire a big time left handed power bat to go along with Stanton. Having Davis and Stanton on the same team gives the Marlins the 2 best power bats in the majors, at least in terms of pure power. The Marlins don’t seem scared off by the idea that Davis is only under 1 year of service time, as they could potentially put together a contending team for 2015. In return, the Orioles get Andrew Heaney. Heaney is a former first round pick (2012) and came out of Oklahoma St. In his MiL career, he has struck over a batter an inning and his walk rate is 2.3. This past season, one that was split between AA and AAA (including the PCL), he threw 137.1 innings. He struck 143 batters walked only 36 and only gave up 11 homers. He is a left-handed pitcher with good stuff. He didn’t pitch well in his small sample size for Miami this past season but that doesn’t take any luster off of a guy who is a consensus top 25-40 prospect. I would also ask for relief prospect Nick Wittgren. Wittgren doesn’t have a power arm but he has excellent command and some believe he can be a back end of the pen pitcher, despite the lack of a power arm. Wittgren had an ok year in 2014 while at AA and could be part of the bullpen by the middle of 2015, if he improves.
Trade #2: Brandon Moss
If the Orioles trade Davis, then it would help if they added another bat (regardless of whether we keep Markakis and/or Cruz). For that bat, I suggest Brandon Moss. Billy Beane is reportedly looking to trade some guys off the team and, as we saw with the aforementioned Donaldson trade that has already started. Moss will be getting an arb raise into the 6-7M range. Moss has been a guy where his home park has hurt him. His H/R splits are always on the side of him being better on the road. From 2012-2014, Moss saw a difference of almost 150 points in OPS (905 vs. 776). He walks at a high rate but he also strikes out a lot. He profiles similarly to Mark Reynolds but Moss has a slightly better contact rate, hits for a slightly better average and strikes out a little less. Take him out of Oakland and those numbers could increase. Moss has seen his OPS drop the last few seasons but he is just one season removed from an 859 OPS. He can play multiple positions. UZR has graded him out as an average OFer but a below average first baseman. He has been a 2-2.5ish fWAR guy and again, maybe that gets a little better playing in OPACY. The other area Moss has struggled in is how he hit lefties. Now, he hasn’t been terrible but with a guy like Pearce on the roster, it would be good to sit Moss vs. the very tough lefties at first base. Moss also has the versatility to be insurance for the OF as well, which is a plus. In return, I would send Oakland Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a very solid starter and is someone Oakland can plug into the rotation as solid back of the rotation depth and he should excel in the bigger park in Oakland, as most pitchers do. I would hate to lose Gonzalez but this team has the depth, especially after adding Heaney in the above trade.
Sign Nelson Cruz:
Cruz hasn’t been signed yet and it appears that Seattle is our competition for him. While other teams could get involved, Seattle and Baltimore seem likely and it seems like the Orioles are content with allowing Cruz to see if he can beat the 3-year deal they have on the table. Cruz for a deal in the 42-50M range over 3 years is probably overpaying but that’s ok. Its not a long deal and it won’t hurt us too much long term.
Sign Nick Markakis…or a replacement for him:
For some reason, Markakis hasn’t signed yet. I am totally against a 4-year deal for Nick and if reports are true, the Orioles are offering just that. If that is the case, then I am very surprised he hasn’t signed. Just like Cruz, I am guessing the Orioles are saying, go ahead and see if you can find something better and then let us know what you find. I still think he is signed but if not, you have to go elsewhere. Nori Aoki is the first place I would go. He doesn’t hit for power but he has a solid average, will take a walk and has a career 353 OBP. UZR has graded him out well in RF and he probably isn’t much, if any, of a drop off from Markakis. Nick has more power and is younger, so I would prefer him but if Aoki can be signed for 2 or 3 years at 7-10M a year, that’s a lot less than some of the reported contracts we have seen for Nick. Melky Cabrera is another option. The problem with Cabrera is that we would lose a pick for him. He is a good player and I would be happy with him in our lineup but I would prefer Aoki to him because of the pick. If we keep Cruz, we won’t get the comp pick, so it would be nice to keep the first rounder, after losing our first and second round pick last year.
I would also like to see the team add a BP pitcher or 2. Guys like Gregerson, Thatcher and Crain are just a few of the names to check in on. The team has to decide what to do with Matusz and Hunter. I would non-tender each of them but I think they keep Hunter. With Andrew Miller likely leaving, signing Thatcher may be a good move for this team. He has had solid numbers but he is a fly ball pitcher and the HR rate could be an issue in OPACY.
These are just a few of the moves we can check in on. I have talked a lot about Justin Upton and he remains my top target but getting some younger guys, like a Heaney, who are under team control for several years is huge for this team, both short and long term. This team will have other decisions to make (De Aza for example) but the moves I outlined above are a good start to keeping this team good for the short and long term IMO and I think that should always be the goal of any good organization.
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight