They Said, We Say: Orioles Talk December 9th

The Winter Meetings continue on in San Diego, and discussion of the Orioles continues to be found across the web.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Today’s links:

FanGraphs: Dan Szymborski Chat

They Said: The chat included lots of commentary about the O’s.

We Say: There are a number of things Dan said here that I agree with. Rasmus could happen. No interest in Blanco. Morse as a DH candidate could make sense. I’ve already written that Angelos’ proclamation that he will not allow Duquette to interview could be a negotiating tactic.  I slightly disagree about Joseph. I think Joseph will always be below average with the bat, but do think he can be improved vs. what we saw last year (especially with Joseph’s poor finish in September). I wouldn’t have done Chen for Kendrick, and I’m a Kendrick fan. Additional discussion of that on the BSL Board here. Dan did not value Moss highly (clearly the A’s didn’t either). I would have been tempted to match or exceed what Cleveland provided in Joey Wendle. On the other hand, there is legitimate concern about Moss’s hip, and Moss is also due for a raise via Arbitration. The most interesting comment Dan made regarding the O’s, was the suggestion of piecing together the OF and making a run at either Lester or Scherzer. Adding either starter to the front of the O’s rotation would improve Baltimore’s prospects of repeating as AL East Division winners; but I’m against signing either pitcher for the contracts it would take to obtain them.

MLB.com: Britt’s Bird Watch: Quick hits on Upton, Breslow, free agents, and other WM talk

They Said: The Orioles have not talked to Atlanta Braves about outfielder Justin Upton, thought it has been widely speculated as a match. In fact, Duquette said it’s more likely that the club signs a free agent than makes a trade right now. The O’s had 4-5 conversations today with free agents with plans for several more before the day is through.

We Say:  Britt Ghiroli is passing on a public denial from O’s Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Ghiroli’s reporting here, she asked Duquette a question, and got a response on the record. That said, the information is inaccurate based on what I’ve been told. I’m told that the O’s and Braves have spoken, but that Baltimore is a long-shot at best.

My own conjecture is that Atlanta is aware that Gausman is not coming back to the Braves for a one year rental of J. Upton. I believe the Braves would be open to 1 to 1 swaps of either D. Bundy, or Harvey for Upton. I also believe the Braves would take less back from Baltimore (perhaps one of Sisco, Walker, or Davies) if the O’s agreed to also take back BJ Upton and a significant portion of the $46.35M owed to him over the next 3 years.

Camden Depot: Should the O’s trade for Jay Bruce?

They Said: Jay Bruce had a terrible 2014 and I expect him to have a better 2015. But I also think that there’s some regression in his performance and there are certainly a number of red flags. It’s worth noting that Fake Teams came to the same conclusion. I see him putting up a .230/.300/.410 line with slightly below average defense. With 2 years and $25M remaining and given that he’s still in his prime, Bruce may be worth his contract but wouldn’t be worth a few major league pieces.

We Say:  Camden Depot is not alone in their evaluation as FanGraphs had an article with a similar tone found here. I understand the arguments for ’14 not being just an outlier, but regression over time; but the projected .710 OPS still looks low to me. Over a 4 year period (’10-’13) Bruce posted an OPS above .807 each year, with at-least 573 plate appearances in each of those years. I’d feel pretty comfortable projecting a .775 OPS out of Bruce for ’15. Is that worth taking on the remaining contract, and giving up talent to sign him? It might be. Depends on exactly what talent would need to go back to the Reds, and how your scouts view his defense. (Over the last two years, advanced metrics have rated him excellent in ’13, and poor in ’14. With those extremes, somewhere in-between feels like a safe bet to me.)

MASN: ESPN’s Keith Law on the Dan Duquette-to-Toronto rumors

They Said:  Law, “I think the new trend now in baseball is, if you want to go get a successful GM from another franchise, you often can’t just call up and make him your GM. Even with more money, the other team won’t give permission. A lot of GMs won’t leave for that situation. So instead, you call and say we’re going to make you our president of baseball operations. You make up some title, attach more money to it and that’s how you get the Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman to come to your franchise. And then he appoints another GM below him and then you’ve got two GM-caliber people at the top of your organization.”

We Say: MASN’s Melewski does an excellent job of soliciting feedback on the O’s from 3rd party sources. I’m in complete agreement with Law’s comments here. The prospective offer from Toronto is not about the Blue Jays desire for Duquette to run their Fan & Ticket Services Department. It’s about their desire to add additional brain-power to their Front Office (and simultaneously taking from a competitor within their Division). With additional salary, title, and some responsibility changes; it can be billed as a promotion. Law goes on to state that it would be considered a breach of contract for Duquette to resign from the O’s, forfeit his salary, and go to Toronto. My opinion is that O’s Majority Owner Peter Angelos should speak with Duquette and determine Duquette’s true desire. If Duquette wants the position with Toronto – and Angelos is unwilling to promote Duquette to a similar title (and salary) here in Baltimore – I think Angelos should let Duquette go, as long as some compensation is provided back from the Blue Jays.