Terps Basketball Q&A with National Analysts

Having beat Oakland over the weekend, the University of Maryland Terrapins are 12-1 as they begin Big Ten play tomorrow night at Michigan State.

To review what we’ve seen so far, and to preview what awaits; we’ve reached out to several analysts for their thoughts on the Terps. BSL thanks the following for their responses:

Reid Forgrave, FOX Sports
Matt Norlander, CBS Sports
&
Scott Phillips, NBC Sports / College Basketball Talk

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: Melo Trimble arrived in College Park with a lot of hype, and has failed to disappoint. His assist to turnover ratio is not overly strong, but he regularly creates for his teammates. He consistently plays with good pace, showing an ability to speed up or slow down when situation dictates. He’s been strong from 3, and outstanding at the FT line (and at getting to the charity stripe). For you, where does he rank among the Nation’s Freshman guards?

Forgrave: He’s right up there, for sure. I’d say he’s the most surprising freshman guard in the country; we knew he’d be really good, but not this good, and not this soon. I’d put the non-conference resumes of guards like Duke’s Tyus Jones, Kentucky’s Tyler Ulis, Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell and maybe even Indiana’s James Blackmon Jr. above Trimble – but not by much. Along with Blackmon, I’d say Trimble is the best freshman shooter in the country.

Norlander: Just among guards? I’d have him third right now. Only Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell and Arizona’s Stanley Johnson would be ahead of Trimble, who I put sixth overall in my Freshman of the Year Watch column on Dec. 23. (A new order will be posted — and Trimble will stay in the top 10 — on CBSSports.com on Dec. 30.)

Phillips: I think Melo Trimble has had a fantastic year, specifically on the offensive end, and he’s a big reason why Maryland is in a 12-1 position. But I still think he’s behind Duke’s Tyus Jones, Kentucky’s Tyler Ulis and Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell in terms of freshmen guards. Those guys are playing unbelievable ball for winning teams as well and Trimble still has some concerns on the defensive end and a so-so assist-to-turnover ratio. But he’s an All-Big Ten candidate as a freshman, and that’s a legitimate feat.

BSL: In his Junior year, Jake Layman has raised his level of play. Getting time at both the 3, and 4; Layman is taking less 3’s (and making a higher %), and getting to the line more often. The two previous years we saw flashes of his ability, right now he is a consistent force. Talent wise, how do you compare him among Big Ten forwards?

Forgrave: It’s a down year in the Big Ten, which is great news for Maryland in its first year in the conference. But there’s still a lot of talent in the league. I’d put the two Wisconsin All-American candidates at forward, Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky, above Layman, as well as Iowa’s Aaron White and Michigan State’s Brandon Dawson. And honestly, that’s it. Shooting less threes and shooting them at a higher rate has made Layman even more dangerous as a junior. I don’t know if that’s the Trimble Effect or what, but if Layman keeps playing this style of game, and if Dez Wells doesn’t revert to hero ball, good things will come in Big Ten play.

Norlander: While Maryland fans are familiar with Layman’s play, he’s gotta be among the 10 most underrated players in the country. I say that considering Maryland’s record. He wouldn’t make my All-Big Ten first or second team right now, but when you’re putting up a 28.13 PER for a one-loss team in a major conference, it’s time to take notice. The only bigs who’ve shown better in the Big Ten to this point, in my eyes: Frank Kaminsky, Aaron White and Maurice Walker.

Phillips: The Big Ten is having a down year in the front court in 2014-15, so I think Layman is one of the best forwards in the league. We’ve seen him elevate his play during his junior season and I think along with Wisconsin’s deep front court, Michigan State’s Brandon Dawson and Iowa’s Aaron White, Layman is one of the better forwards in the Big Ten. I look forward to seeing how he fares with the more physical nature of the league than the ACC, however.

BSL: Roster wise, one of the largest questions going into the season for MD was their front-court. Last year the Terps could not defend the rim. This year Sophomore Damonte Dodd, and Freshman Michal Cekovsky have provided shot-blocking presences. Both have good size and athleticism. Their offense is limited to dunks and put backs, but so far this MD team has not needed their scoring. Based on what you’ve seen, will this duo hold-up in league play?

Forgrave: Dodd has been most impressive around the rim. He ranks 30^th in the country in block percentage in his somewhat limited minutes. And for a freshman 7-footer who still needs to add muscle, you have to be impressed with the beginning of Cekovsky’s college career. But the non-conference schedule hasn’t exactly been a barnburner – 133^rd in the country if your metric is RPI, 271^st in the country if your metric is the more reliable KenPom.com. You have to assume when these two underclassmen start banging with Big Ten bigs, there’s going to be a dropoff – and possibly pretty big.

Norlander: I think Maryland’s lack of consistent play among frontcourt players not named Layman will wind up being why they lose most games. The team doesn’t rebound the ball well enough right now to warrant legitimate belief it can be a top-three Big Ten team. If that changes then its prospects change. But of course Maryland can be a top-five team in this league; once you get to that point, almost any team has a major flaw it’s overcoming. I like Dodd and Cekovsky from the little tape I’ve seen on both this season, but next year is when the jump will come.

Phillips: The Dodd-Cekovsky duo can certainly get by if they continue to sustain their combined numbers in the early season. As I mentioned with Layman, the Big Ten isn’t very deep this season in front courts and only Wisconsin and Purdue seem to have massive size and skill among multiple players. Outside of that, Maryland should be fine at center, as many of the league’s posts are inconsistent. As long as they defend and rebound, Maryland has scoring talent around them.

BSL: We’ve mentioned Trimble, and Cekovsky – the other two members of MD’s Freshman class are Dion Wiley, and Jared Nickens. Both are averaging over 20 minutes a game, and providing some scoring punch. (Nickens in particular looks like someone capable of being a go-to scorer as soon as next year.) What have you seen from these two, and what will you be looking for from them during the remainder of their Freshman seasons?

Norlander: Wiley’s just not efficient enough to be shooting as much as he is I think. Nickens has already risen above being “a nice role player” and someone who I think will be putting in more than 25 minutes per game in Big Ten play. It can’t come in the next three months, but if Nickens puts on another 15 pounds, look out.

Phillips: Both Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens have shown no fear in the early-going this season and that’s a promising attribute for a bench scoring unit. Mark Turgeon needs these guys to come in a few minutes each half, play hard and not be afraid to shoot and both have shown some scoring touch. Two things I’d like to see them improve in Big Ten play: defense and efficiency. Both shot decently at 40 percent from the field, but could stand to improve and part of that is shot selection. As freshmen, they can also stand to improve defensively, but they are more than capable eventually.

BSL: In the Terps initial 13 games, Dez Wells and Evan Smotrycz both missed time with injuries. Smotrycz is back playing and working his way into game shape. Wells returned Saturday against Oakland. Smotrycz gives MD another big capable of rebounding, and also stretching the floor. His defensive limitations seem reduced with Dodd / Cekovsky behind him. Wells is MD’s best overall player, who will help the Terps scoring inside, by his ability to get into the paint. As the Terps get closer to having their full roster, what starting lineup do you like best for MD? Do you see Wells as having All Big-Ten ability?

Forgrave: Wells absolutely does have All-Big Ten type talent – as long as that’s not what he’s aiming for. As you well know, Wells’ propensity for playing hero ball is his biggest weakness. Hopefully, a month watching his team succeed without him will make him realize where he fits best on this team – and that’s as one of several bananas, not the single top banana. Will he be a starter? I’d assume so, even with all the success this team’s had without him in the lineup. I’d prefer Smotrycz to bring his senior experience off the bench.

Norlander: Maryland’s played beyond expectation and gotten more contributions from everyone that I wonder if Wells’ numbers will validate him to being a first team status. Might be a situation where Trimble and Wells both make second team. The best five on the floor for Maryland, I think, is as follows:

Layman
Smotrycz
Nickens
Trimble
Wells

Phillips: I’d go with Trimble, Wells, Layman, Smotrycz, Dodd as my ideal starting lineup. You have to hope that you have enough floor spacing with the two forward spots, but that unit has plenty of size and Layman and Dodd can cover a bit for Smotrycz’s defensive lapses. I think Wells can be one of the league’s best two-way players and it will be interesting to see him match up against a league that has plenty of talented guards this season. It’s going to be hard for Wells to beat out Illinois’ Rayvonte Rice and Penn State’s D.J. Newbill for All-Big Ten honors, but he has an outside chance.

BSL: Maryland has had a productive out-of-conference schedule with neutral court victories over Arizona State, and Iowa State – and a road win at Oklahoma State. (And a home win over Top 100 RPI NC Central.) The lone loss being a competitive game vs. Virginia without Wells. The Terps are in the Top 20 in the polls and numerous power rankings. As Maryland prepares for their first tour of the Big Ten; do you believe the Terrapins are a legitimate challenger to conference powers Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State? Current overall thoughts on the Conference?

Forgrave: The Big Ten isn’t great this year. It isn’t awful. It’s…fine. Wisconsin is a legit top-5 team nationally. No one will touch the Badgers in conference play. After that, the conference is absolutely wide open. I’d have to guess Ohio State is the favorite to finish second in the conference, but that’s absolutely a guess – we don’t know all that much about the Buckeyes yet, considering their horrendous non-conference schedule. In Ohio State’s two games against elite competition – Louisville and UNC – Ohio State lost handily. Traditional powers like Michigan and Michigan State are down; upstarts like Minnesota, Nebraska and, yes, Maryland can contend for second place in the Big Ten. It’s a very deep conference, with tons of good teams but only one great one. You could make a solid case for seven or eight Big Ten teams that could finish right behind Wisconsin this season. Feels like a recipe for fun league play, and a great opportunity for Maryland to build on an impressive non-conference season.

Norlander: Big Ten is down this year — but that’s relative. I’d say it falls behind the Big 12, ACC and Big East, on the whole, in terms of best leagues top to bottom. And after the Big Ten at fourth, the gap between that league and the fifth one, the Pac-12, is very big. I don’t think the Terps can challenge Wisconsin, no way, and I think Ohio State is set to clearly be the No. 2 team. But the race for No. 3 is interesting. I like Wisconsin, then Ohio State, then Michigan State, and Maryland fourth. Hey, at least we’ve got a pretty good setup for Tuesday night! I think those four teams easily make the NCAAs. But you know why Maryland fans should feel good? Their team is basically second in terms of resume for the NCAA tournament right now. Would take a total collapse for the Terps not to make it, and that’s not going to happen.

Phillips: It’s Wisconsin and everyone else. To me, nobody has legitimately staked a claim for a NCAA Tournament bid or second place in the league. Maryland has the best case at 12-1 with some good wins, but they’re still entering a new league and it’s a complete unknown how it will go. I think it will go favorably for them because the league doesn’t have many great teams, but I still think the Big Ten gets seven teams in due to other weak conferences.

BSL: With the OOC wins, it seems like MD could get to the tournament for the first time since 2010 with a .500 finish in league play. While Terps fans would have signed-up for that before the season, the results to-date have MD fans feeling greedy. What type of ceiling do you think this MD team has?

Forgrave: A .500 record in Big Ten play would likely mean a tourney bid. In last year’s brutal and deep Big Ten, a .500 record in conference play would have virtually guaranteed a bid, but this year’s less impressive league will likely mean conference wins aren’t worth as much in the committee’s eyes this year compared to last year. The ceiling of this team is second in the Big Ten – say, 12 wins in conference play – but you could say that about half the teams in the Big Ten right now. If I’m a Terps fan, I’d be quite content to go .500 in league play and likely get into the tourney for the first time in the Mark Turgeon Era – especially considering Turgeon was widely considered to be on the hot seat heading into the season.

Norlander: I never talk about NCAA tournamnet results as a ceiling because it usually doesn’t correlate. Did seventh-seeded UConn have a “national championship” ceiling last year? As it turns out, yeah, but nobody had that going in.

So here’s how I’d answer that.

Maryland’s “ceiling” for wins and seed come Selection Sunday: 25 wins (including Big Ten tourney play) and a No. 4 seed.
Maryland’s reasonable expectation for this year’s NCAA tournament: just get one win and go from there.

My best guess: Maryland’s at 23 wins and earns a No. 6 seed. And yeah, if you’d told fans “You can be a No. 6 six in the 2015 tournament, or you can play it out and gamble,” you know they’d have taken the six all night long.

Thanks again for having me, Chris. I appreciate it. And to the Maryland fans who’ve been ragging on me all season, keep it coming!

Phillips: It depends on how the freshmen continue to acclimate to the grind of a Big Ten season and the physical nature of it and how the team bounces back from the early-season injuries. If this full group of players blends together and establishes early chemistry, I see no reason why Maryland couldn’t make a Sweet 16. There just aren’t many great college basketball teams this season — outside of an established top 10 or so teams –and the Terps are already near that area. This team has a chip on its shoulder and I like how they play in big games. I think staying healthy is a big thing for them, but they have a decent ceiling depending on tournament match-ups.