It was a bitter sweet goodbye from Torrey Smith.
He’s a class act and the kind of guy you want on your football team. It’s a shame that he had to go, but when we hear the salary number he got, I don’t think it will be a surprise that he’s gone.
So where do the Ravens go from here?
(Discuss the future of the Ravens WR corps on the BSL Board.)
My colleague Shawn Brubaker has already taken a look at what Campanaro is ready to do. He’s clearly a guy with good acceleration and with another year to refine his route running and get healthy, he could be a difference maker.
What else is on the roster? Two other internal options for additional playing time are Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken. I think these receivers fit in with Trestman’s offense well. They are 6’5” and 6’2” respectively. What we know is that Trestman likes guys that can go catch the contested ball. He talked a lot in Chicago during his time there about needing guys with a big catch radius and an ability to make contested grabs. Both Brown and Aiken were surprising sure handed last year. Brown was targeted 31 times and had 24 catches, Aiken was targeted 32 times and had 24 catches, 77 and 75% catch percentage based on targets. This isn’t completely scientific, but Torrey Smith was targeted 92 times and had 49 catches, just a 53% catch percentage. Even if you include his 11 PIs during the regular season, that rises to just 65%, but also note Torrey had catch percentages of 47, 41, and 52 his prior three years (when he drew significantly less PI). Alternately Brown, the only WR with a track record of the two had as 59 percentage his rookie year. Perhaps Trestman wants the more sure handed, bigger bodied guys here. These guys don’t have the top end speed for separation that Smith did, but perhaps the percentage of catches made improves?
Steve Smith is also still here. And while I believe his usage needs to be reduced some by Harbaugh and Trestman to make him more effective next year; he caught 58.9% of balls his way last year. He is also a guy that you can trust to go up and after the ball. His YPR bounced back last year, up 13.5 from 11.6 and if he can stay in that range he can still be very effective. I find it unlikely that he’ll have 130+ targets next year, as I doubt with his age his body can withstand the wear and tear.
Andre Johnson also fits Ozzie’s MO but could easily be a guy that gets too much attention. His decline was much less declining than most people thought and the fact that he put up nearly 1000 yards in the offense last and missed some time with injuries should make him a valuable target for a lot of teams. I think his price tag is going to rise as he may be the 2nd best FA WR right now behind Smith. I think it’s unlikely they get a deal done with other teams interested right now. And his brother tweeted yesterday that he’s interested in Seahawks, Colts, Patriots or Packers. The Packers with Cobb are out, but I think the Ravens will be interested, and the Pats and Ravens both can offer him the WR1 spot on a playoff team – something he can’t get elsewhere. I was bummed to see Hartline take a 2/6 deal with Cleveland and think that could have been good value for Baltimore.
I think none of us would be surprised to see the Ravens take a WR in the first round this season. But I think we always fall into that trap. We rarely take WRs in the first and Taylor and Clayton never lived up to their potential. And I wonder if that scares the Ravens away from that spot as they’d need more value? In any event, I don’t see Baltimore making a play to move up in the draft to be in position to take one of the premier WR prospects such as Amari Cooper, or Kevin White.
It’s possible that Louisville’s Devante Parker, or Oklahoma’s Dorial Green-Beckham could be in play for the Ravens with the 26th overall selection, but they seem to be rising in the latest mocks. Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong has been connected to Baltimore recently. Auburn’s Sammie Coates and Ohio State’s Devin Smith are reasonable potential targets, with Coates possibly being a bit of a reach at 26. By the 3rd round, Michigan State’s Tony Lippett could be an option, but you certainly won’t be taking him there with any expectation of relying on him in 2015.
Ultimately I’m guessing the value will be too high on the pick in the 1st for the Ravens to take a WR. With at least 3 more comp picks coming in, I also don’t see a scenario where the Ravens want to trade back. The only scenario I see that happening is if they move back to the early 2nd; though if the Ravens like Coates and Smith and feel they will be available then – maybe? If they did trade back, they would have extra ammo to go back up in the 2nd round to take someone else they like. Baltimore did give up their 6th this year, but if they add 4 more picks into that mix, the Ravens start to run out of roster space. Overall, that’s why I think trading back is unlikely.
I’d be surprised if the receiving corps was Smith, Brown, Aiken, Campanaro and an impact rookie next year, but I feel as though the Ravens have come into seasons with less talent at the WR position if that so happens. Without a threat at the TE position, I think the Ravens will desire another veteran play making WR. The chatter earlier this off-season with potential interest in Brandon Marshal provides credence to that opinion in my point of view. With Hartline off-the-board, I think it’s extremely likely that we’ll see pursuit of Johnson. If Johnson signs elsewhere, will the Ravens be locked into not only taking a WR in the 1st round – but needing to rely on that Rookie for immediate production?
Ravens Analyst
Jordan Kough is a graduate of University of Maryland, Baltimore County. He’s a long standing Ravens and Orioles fan of many years. He grew up just north of Baltimore and likes the statistical analysis of games as much as watching games themselves.