10 General thoughts on the O’s & the rest of the AL East

The more I look at the rest of the American League East division, the more optimistic I get about the forthcoming 2011 season for The Baltimore Orioles.

Infield:
Baltimore: Wieters, Lee, Roberts, Hardy, Reynolds
Boston: Saltalamacchia, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Scutaro, Youkilis
NYY: Martin, Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez
Tampa: Jaso, Johnson, Rodriguez, Brignac, Longoria
Toronto: Arencibia, Lind, Hill, Escobar, Bautista

Outfield:
Baltimore:Markakis, Jones, Scott
Boston: Drew, Ellsbury, Crawford
NYY: Swisher, Granderson, Gardner
Tampa: Zobrist, Upton, Damon
Toronto: Snider, Davis, Rivera

DH:
Baltimore: Guerrero
Boston: Ortiz
NYY: Posada
Tampa: Ramirez
Toronto: Encarnacion

Bench:
Baltimore: Pie, Fox, Izturis, Tatum
Boston: Cameron, Lowrie, McDonald, Varitek
NYY:  Pena, Chavez, Belliard, Cervelli
Tampa: Jennings, Joyce, Lopez, Shoppach
Toronto: Patterson, McDonald, McCoy, Molina

Rotation:
Baltimore: Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, Bergesen, Duchscherer (Tillman, Britton)
Boston: Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz, Matsuzaka
NYY: Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Garcia, Nova (Mitre, Brackman, Colon, Prior)
Tampa: Price, Shields, Niemann, Davis, Hellickson
Toronto: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek, Litsch (Rzepczynski)

Bullpen:
Baltimore: Gregg, Gonzalez, Uehara, Johnson, Berken, Hendrickson,VandenHurk
Boston: Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Atchison, Wakefield, Wheeler, Okajima (Bowden)
NYY: Rivera, Soriano, Robertson, Chamberlain, Marte, Feliciano, Logan
Tampa: Howell, Peralta, Farnsworth, Sonnanstine, Ekstrom, McGee, Russell
Toronto: Francisco, Dotel, Rauch, Frasor, Camp, Janssen, Purcey

10 General Thoughts on the O’s & the rest of the AL East

1) I still like Tampa a lot. Their rotation will keep them competitive. I think Sonnanstine, and McGee will stabilize their bullpen. You have to like the OF depth of Jennings and Joyce. I think Ramirez is still capable of being a factor. After an outstanding 2009, Zobrist was poor in 2010. I think he rebounds. It is not like they are without questions though. Dan Johnson played in 11 games in 2008, missed 2009, and had a .757 OPS in 40 games in 2010.  Rodriguez and Brignac both have promise, but issues. Rodriguez posted a .705 OPS in 343 at-bats, Brignac a .692 OPS in his 301 at-bats. Both showed problems with plate-discipline.

While Damon figures to continue to get on-base, and can be replaced defensively late in-games; there probably is not a worse throwing OF in the Majors. I’ve seen plenty of talk about the O’s going from Pie to Scott in LF, and less about the drop of Crawford to Damon for the Rays.

2) The biggest potential positive for the Tampa lineup, is the light-bulb going off for B.J. Upton. The 26 year-old has played 4 full-seasons in the Majors, and the most productive season he has had was in 2007. Over his last 1,627 at-bats during the past 3 years he has posted just a .739 OPS. Last year his numbers improved over the 2nd-half. He still has the requisite talent, still has the potential. I do not know how anyone can go into 2011 definitively expecting dramatic improvement though.

3) Everyone in the world has seemingly handed the division and American League pennant to the Boston Red Sox. Clearly they are loaded. Lester is dominating, Buchholz out-pitched some of his peripherals but is very solid. I still respect Beckett and Lackey (though their are potential flags for both). I like the bench, and the bullpen looks deep. For the long-term, the Red Sox are better with Crawford and Gonzalez than they were with Beltre, and Martinez. I guess my question is for this 2011 season, how much have they improved?

Beltre had a .921 OPS last year with 79 XBH’s and excellent defense at 3rd. Is there reason to believe Gonzalez is going to add significantly more offense to the lineup this year? While Youkilis has played 3rd before (including 63 games in 2009) it will still be a transition for him going back across the diamond. No matter what, he will not be as good defensively as Beltre.

On the other-hand, Crawford dramatically improves the athleticism of the team and their defense in LF. The 29-year old Crawford is coming off the best offensive year of his career. .851 OPS, 62 XBH’s. His 3 year average though is a .803 OPS.  Is there reason to think his 2010 numbers will represent a new expected base-line?  Even if he again produces at his 2010 levels, the Red Sox lost Victor Martinez. Lots of Sabermetricians do not project Martinez to age well, but he did rake in 2010. (.844 OPS, 53 XBH’s)  If you add Crawford, but lose Martinez, how is that a major improvement to the 2011 lineup?

4) If you are going to talk about the Red Sox improving for ’11, the discussion should be less about their external additions and more about a likely return to health for players that were already there.

5) In 7 of the last 8 seasons the Wild Card winner in the American League has come out of the East. Those East Wild Card teams have won 95, 98, 95, 94, 95, 95, and 95 games.

The Orioles have averaged 70 wins the past 8 years, and I believe have played roughly .450 ball against the Division. If the O’s improve this year, would that not impact the win totals of their division foes? My guess is that the Wild Card might yet again come out of the East, but the winner might be closer to 92 wins vs. 95 win average of recent history.

6) I thought the addition of Soriano made sense for the Yankees. Yes, I understand the contract concerns, yes I understand Soriano was Type A and the compensatory ramifications. Still, we are talking about the New York Yankees and they not exactly suffer from an inability to add external talent to their organization. Rivera will have less wear and tear on him during the year, and the Yankees can make nearly every game a 7 inning affair. LOOGY’s can be overrated, but Feliciano also added depth to the Yankee bullpen. Burnett could be rebound and easily be a league average 3rd starter. Or the 34 year-old could again be the guy New York was afraid to pitch in the playoffs. New York has to hope Garcia can give them the 28 starts and 157 innings he provided Chicago last year. (Though he allowed 171 hits, with just 89 k’s, and a .804 OPS against). If you consider that the Orioles are now likely to have both Tillman, and Britton in AAA; I think you have to like the depth of the O’s rotation over that of New York.

7) Longoria is my vote as the best player in the division, but Cano is the non-Oriole player I enjoy watching the most. He generates great bat-speed (even with that heavy bat), and shows strong range with an absolute rifle from 2nd base.

8) Toronto and their General Manager Alex Anthopoulos are considered the winner of the off-season in the division (and maybe throughout baseball) for getting the Vernon Wells contract off their books. Fair enough, it does greatly improve their flexibility going forward. For 2011 though, I think it is a stretch for anyone to say the Jays have improved. Toronto led the Majors in homers last year with 257.  Does anyone think that is going to happen again?

Jose Bautista had a .995 OPS last-year with 54 homers. The 3 previous years he had averaged 13 homers. If he preforms at his new career averages (.795 OPS, 25 homers) the Jays will go from MVP production to a solid regular. Beyond Bautista’s expected drop, and the trade of Wells – the Jays have also lost Overbay and Buck.  Coming off a MVP season in the Pacific Coast League (AAA), Toronto feels good about Arencibia. He should provide some offense. Is he going to match the 20 homers and .803 OPS Buck produced last-year? As we have seen here in Baltimore, the offensive production of a catching prospect can suffer as they are given the responsibility of catching a pitching staff everyday in the big leagues.

What the Jays do have going for them, is that it is very reasonable to believe that both Hill and Lind will be better than they were in 2010. Toronto needs the 23 year-old Travis Snider to take the next-step. Considering his age, he has been pretty productive in his first 612 Major League at-bats. He is a guy who could make that leap and really emerge.

9) I like the Toronto rotation. Romero is a stud. Morrow had 178 k’s in his 146.1 ip, Cecil is solid enough. Oriole fans saw Drabek in a September start, and his stuff was extremely impressive. Can Litsch get back healthy and to his 2008 form?

10) I think the Orioles have the 2nd best Outfield (Boston), and the 3rd best Infield (Boston, and NY).

My All East-Division Team:
C: Wieters
1st: Gonzalez
2nd: Cano
SS: Jeter
3rd: Longoria
RF: Swisher
CF: Jones
LF: Crawford

Rotation: Lester, Price, Sabathia, Romero, Matusz
Closer: Rivera